USDCHF
In the USD/CHF pair, a bearish trend seems to be emerging on the 4-hour timeframe, supported by the breakout below the double top neckline. Additionally, the correction of around 50% in the previous wave and the completion of the 4th Elliott wave further suggest downward pressure, potentially indicating a continuation towards the completion of the 5th Elliott wave. Traders might consider monitoring for further confirmation of this bearish sentiment through price action and key support/resistance levels.
Usdchfsignal
DeGRAM | USDCHF channel breakoutUSDCHF is trading in the ascending channel, but the market reached 50% of the bearish move on the D chart.
The market is putting bearish pressure on the support level, and most likely it will break the support, creating the AB=CD pattern.
Price made two false breakouts of the resistance level at 0.886500.
We expect a breakout of the channel and a bearish move.
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💡 USDCHF: Forecast March 6USDCHF D1 decreased yesterday, with a narrower fluctuation range compared to the previous few D1 bars, showing cumulative price compression. With the current sideways state, yesterday's narrowing of fluctuations suggests the possibility of an explosion in price fluctuations for USDCHF in the near future.
The accumulation status of USDCHF H1 is in the form of a symmetrical triangle model - which can create price fluctuations when the model is broken. The main trend of USDCHF H1 today continues to be waiting to buy.
DeGRAM | USDCHF short from major resistance levelUSDCHF is trading in the ascending channel; it printed a AB=CD pattern and a butterfly pattern.
The market is showing that the bulls are running out of steam, creating a bearish harmonic pattern.
Confluence level: resistance and fibo extension level of 161.80% and equal measured move.
We expect a bearish move from the confluence level.
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USDCHF - Long from support zone ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for a long. I wait price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance and then to reject from support zone for a potential long.
Fundamental analysis: Next week is NFP week, news with high impact on USD, so pay attention to the results on Friday to validate the analysis.
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SHORT USD/CHF from .8847I'm SHORT this pair from .8847.
USD/CHF has hit the channel shown. This is a recent area of resistance from 13/2/24.
Price has been overbought since yesterday and now it appears the BULLISH momentum of this pair is waning and the signs are that USD/CHF BEARS are jumping on board.
Although the Pivot Point SuperTrend remains BULLISH, the Andean Oscillator shows a rise in the red SELL line and the green BUY line is heading south and looks like it will cross the signal line soon.
Other confirmation of the BEARISH bias is the falling RSI and the MACD is crossing south whilst the signal bars are shortening.
This has to be considered a risk trade as we don't have every indicator confirming the BEARISH momentum but we are just under WR1 resistance having been above it a few hours ago and the other major consideration is US news at 15:00 being the Manufacturing PMI and Revised UoM Comsumer Sentiment.
Hopefully this trade will be in + numbers and we can get a tight STOP on before the release of the data which will no doubt move the market.
🚨USDCHF is Ready to fall🚨🏃♂️ USDCHF is moving in an Ascending Channel and is currently near the 🔴 Resistance zone(0.891 CHF-0.882 CHF )🔴 and 🟡 Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. It also managed to break the Uptrend line .
🔔I expect USDCHF to start to decline after entering the 🟡 Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡 and at least break down to the 🟢 Support zone(0.874 CHF-0.871 CHF )🟢.
U.S.Dollar/Swiss Franc ( USDCHF ) 4-hour time frame⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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USDCHF - Look for a long opportunity ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I am looking for a long. I wait price to make a retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to react from support zone.
Fundamental news: Next week is full of news with impact on USD and CHF. On Tuesday we will see results monthly CPI on CHF and monthly and yearly CPI on USD. On Thursday we'll have Retail Sales on USD.
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USDCHF, Daily perspective (Important caption)
By studying the USDCHF on a daily time frame we can see the price reached the rejection block and had a bullish reaction, then the price created a high on 23 January that is located below the bearish order block which was created on the 0.5 level of Fibonacci.
So we have a liquidity pool formed as an equal high below the bearish order block.
In addition, we can define the important supply zone which formed between 0.705- 0.79 level of Fibonacci.
In both zones, we can search for a sell position in a lower time frame.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️06/02/2024
🔎 DYOR
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USDCHF - Downside to fill the imbalance ✅ Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here price respected perfectly previous analysis, but for now I expect we to see a pullback price to fill the imbalance lower.
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USDCHF: Experts predict a difficult year for the Swiss Franc“The franc is once more overvalued,” stated David Alexander Meier, economist at Julius Baer Group and pinnacle fourth-region FX forecaster in keeping with Bloomberg.
Mr. David expects the franc to fall approximately 4% from modern tiers with the aid of using the quit of the yr while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stops assisting the foreign money. This is extra than double the common estimate of economists.
His view is primarily based totally at the SNB`s current U-turn, which signaled that it might possibly ease - if now no longer absolutely reverse - the overseas foreign money income that helped the CHF top in 2015 towards the EUR and EUR. USD. Last week, SNB President Thomas Jordan stated the terrible effect of the highly-priced franc on exporters.
The economist expects the SNB, which has the second one-lowest hobby charge amongst G-10 countries, to begin decreasing hobby prices while inflation in Switzerland stabilizes beneath the 2% goal with the aid of using the quit of this yr. He stated the SNB is not likely to preserve shopping for overseas foreign money reserves, an pastime that has stopped considering that the second one region of 2022. That will placed stress at the franc, even extra than the decline in overseas foreign money income.
The franc rose almost 10% towards the U.S. greenback closing yr, the largest benefit the various G-10 and its best-appearing foreign money considering that 2010. However, till January this yr, CHF has slipped in conjunction with G-10 currencies and misplaced approximately 2.5% of its cost amid a more potent dollar way to developing expectancies of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) easing economic policy. .
USDCHF - Short pattern confirmed ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we have the confirmation of SH + BOS + FVG pattern. Price firstly raided buy side liquidity with a stop hunt then broke the structure and reacted from imbalance (FVG). I expect bearish price action to the support zone.
Fundamental news: Next week is full of news in USA. Firstly on Wednesday we have Interest Rate followed by FOMC Conference, then on Friday NFP and Unemployment Rate. Pay attention to the results in order to validate the analysis.
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USDCHF Weekly planPlan for USDCHF for the coming week: I am waiting for the price to trigger my short zone, around 0.874/0.878. Here i will check for divergences on smaller timeframe, to increase my shorts. I placed a sell limit at 0.87650 considering that 0.877 is a strong resistance, and i expect a pullback anyways from there
USDCHF: USD is calm and trading volume is lowThe dollar traded subdued in early European trading on Monday, with the US holiday keeping trading volume down as traders considered the possibility of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
At 04:35 ET (09:35 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 102.242, at the start of the holiday. Martin Luther King Jr.
The U.S. producer price index unexpectedly fell in December, according to data released Friday, prompting traders to increase bets that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as early as this year.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now indicates a 78% chance that the US central bank will begin easing interest rates in March, compared with a 68% chance a week ago.
The US data calendar is quiet this week, with the main focus on retail sales data due out on Wednesday. This will be closely watched for signs that consumer spending - the main driver of economic growth - remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates.
Retail sales are expected to increase 0.4% in December, after rising 0.3% in November.
Investors will also have the opportunity to hear from several Fed officials, including Fed Governor Christoper Waller as well as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and San Francisco Fed head Mary Daly.
7 Dimension Analysis For USDCHF 😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4, D1
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish on both time frames
🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective, indicating a nearly completed sideways move
🟢 Inducement: Liquidity sweep with a long wick candle
🟢 Decisional OB: Mitigated, resistance at CIP with a strong buildup post-breakout, indicating bearish strength in the area
🟢 Traps: Shakeout completed in this area (Arrows)
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily and H4
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: Reversal with a triple top observed during this phase, forming a Consolidation Rectangle
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Notable long wick, Open low/high pattern awaiting confirmation, and an already formed Tower Top
3️⃣ Volume
🟢 Fixed Range: Sell volume predominant in this area
🟢 Low Volume on Breakout: High volume in the purple rectangle area, but without updating Upside move. Expecting a sharp downward move.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI
🟢 Zone: Price in a wide bearish range
🟢 Range Shift: Bearish to sideways shift observed
🟢 Grandfather Father Son: A 6-star selling setup according to this RSI strategy, with an 80% probability
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Middle Band: No confirmation yet
🟢 Contraction: After an expansion move, the market is now in full contraction mode, making outside-of-the-band closing crucial
🟢 Squeeze Breakout: Anticipated
🟢 Walking on the Band: Awaiting
🟢 Headfake: Two observed
🟢 Band Puncher: Three times observed
(For those seeking to learn these concepts in a professional manner, feel free to send me a direct message.)
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC
🟢 Values: CHF 7.19 vs. USD -3.46
7️⃣ Sentiment
☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Done
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Awaiting
💡 Decision: Sell
🚀 Entry: 0.8474
✋ Stop Loss: 0.8590
🎯 Take Profit: 0.8133
2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes, also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 3
🕛 Expected Duration: 15 days
SUMMARY:
The analysis points toward a bearish sentiment, advocating for a sell decision. The entry is set at 0.8474, with a stop loss at 0.8590, take profit at 0.8133, and a risk-to-reward ratio of 3, expecting completion in approximately 15 days.
Will USDCHF breakout Tomorrow? (after US Inflation report)Will USDCHF breakout Tomorrow? (after US Inflation report)
USDCHF recently surpassed both its 50 and 100-hour moving averages, yet it remains confined within its 2024 trading range.
Fluctuations between risk-on and risk-off sentiments keep the pair moving between 0.84635 and 0.85294. Initially, bullish optimism followed comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic, suggesting 2 potential interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. Additional news this week supporting the Swiss franc was the inflation rate in Switzerland rose to 1.7% in December 2023 from 1.4% in the previous month and above forecasts of 1.5%.
However, a recent shift towards risk aversion has led investors back to the US Dollar, however without creating a distinct market trend.
When will this non-trending market transition into a more trending market? Perhaps at the drop of the US inflation report tomorrow.
In the meantime, maintaining a bullish stance depends on the price staying above its elevated 100-hour moving average at 0.85100 and a break of the recent high at 0.8535 could instigate more buying momentum. A drop below this level could shift the bias towards neutrality.
USDCHF: Morgan Stanley: Fed will keep interest rates higher for Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, said:
"The Fed will cut interest rates this year."
But "the Fed can be patient and take its time."
Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to cut interest rates for the first time at its June meeting.
The Fed will keep interest rates stable for longer than the market expects.
But if that happens, there will be more cuts than expected.
The first rate cut of 25 basis points will take effect in June.
Subsequent rate cuts are expected to occur by 25 basis points at meetings in September, November, and December.
USDCHF - Look for a short ✅Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on USDCHF.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H. timeframe perspective, so I am looking for short. I expect price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance higher and then to react from institutional big figure 0.85000.
Fundamental news: Next week on Friday will be released NFP and Unemployment Rate in USA. News with a lot of impact.
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