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USDCNH

USD/CNH technical strategy for risk off=> What are we tracking here? => This is a very complex environment with major risk off flows from large funds in play last week. => Bears are refusing to capitulate and give the highs defending with everything they have meaning we can use the highs at 6.9586 as a line in the sand for triggering further risk-off flows, especially in the broader EM space. => On the political side we have the potential for the US to label China as a currency manipulator here as early as next week so this noise will provide the ebb and flow. => To the downside we will have to see a daily close below 6.9119 to provide some respite. => GL all those tracking this one or in live trades
by ridethepig
Best intruments to short term trade: Looking at the spreads.Howdi fearless gamblers. Today/Tonight/Yesterday I want to post about spreads. I have spend some time calculating them, so I thought, why not share? It does not cost me anything and it has value to you. In what is best to short term trade, this is what you must look at (correct me if I am wrong): - The volatility: if it does not move you are not going to get anything out of it. - When are we open? Does it fit your time schedule? - Your personal preference. - The spreads: if you aim for 1% moves and 0.3% is going to the broker, you won't get very far... Of course, this is not very important for anyone holding trades over periods of several days or weeks. So this is what I have: Currencies All calculated with FXCM, it is around the same everywhere (decent). *** USD pairs *** --- Tier 1 --- EURUSD => 0,010% USDJPY => 0,010% GBPUSD => 0,011% --- Tier 2 --- USDCAD => 0,017% USDCHF => 0,017% USDMXN => 0,017% --- Tier 3 --- AUDUSD => 0,023% --- Tier no thank you --- NZDUSD => 0,027% USDSEK => 0,031% --- God Tier --- USDCNH => < 0,0075% *** Cross pairs *** --- Tier 2 --- EURJPY => 0,016% GBPJPY => 0,018% EURCAD => 0,018% EURNZD => 0,020% EURAUD => 0,015% EURCHF => 0,019% --- Tier 3 --- GBPAUD => 0,022% GBPCAD => 0,022% --- Tier no thank you --- AUDCAD => 0,027% GBPNZD => 0,025% EURGBP => 0,024% AUDJPY => 0,026% AUDNZD => 0,032% CHFJPY => 0,022% GBPCHF => 0,027% --- Tier lol dis a joke man? --- NZDCAD => > 0,045% The Forex moves I look at that happen in a few hours to maybe 2 days are 0.30% 0.50% 0.75% 1%. A spread of 0.03% is 10% of that 0.30% move. Futures --- Tier 1 --- Gold => 0,03% Moves twice as much as FX --- Tier 2 --- Copper => 0,11% Moves 3 times as much as gold, 6 times FX. Oil => 0,07% Moves a little more than gold I think? Maybe 1,5-twice as much. --- Tier lol dis a joke man? --- Silver => 0,30% TOO DAMN HIGH NatGas => 0,33% Moves alot, but still too high. Cryptocurrencies The volatility at the time is non existant for crypto but it will change so I am looking at it anyway, for the day this changes (I get spammed with alerts every day for FX and see moves over and over and over, crypto? Something I might see 30 times a month with FX I might see once a time with crypto. Just look at the charts.) So usually the commissions are the same for all, on Binance without BNB it is 0.1%. Crypto moves are 3% 5% 7.5% 10% etc (with bigger risk thought). On Kraken it is going to be more or less the same as Binance, it depends on your volume. On Bittrex Polo etc it is higher (unless it changed). If you are taker you got higher fees + a little spread. So if it moves 10 times as much as FX (when it moves I mean), you dive 1% by 10, BUT remember you will pay it twice (go long and take profit). So 0.2% / 10 = 0.02% Which places Crypto between Tier 2 and Tier 3. Same as a GBP pair or Copper. Copper moves as much as Bitcoin too or almost as. Pretty much you can trade either and have the same experience minus the sideways and armies of bagholders telling you what a fool you are for not accumulating with Copper. Indices I do not have the values with me but alot are super low, with DAX the lowest and NASDAQ second, maybe the euro thing too. The big indices are tier 1. UK and French ones I think are tier 1 too. The surprise for alot of people would be that Dollar vs Yuan is the one with the lowest spread. Every one is talking about how many pounds per pip and how many pips they take because they are obssessed with how much money they will make and really bad at math. That is not what matters. What matters is USDCNH has the lowest spread and is the most profitable thing to trade in the whole universe if everything else is equal. * It depends WHEN you look at USDCNH thought... At the time, I am fully focussed on trading FX perfectly before I move back to anything else. I only trade the tier 1 to 3 as well of course, as the mighty USDYUAN. So this is my watchlist and what I am trading at the moment, 16 of them: FX:EURUSD,FX:USDJPY,FX:AUDUSD,FX:USDCAD,FX:GBPUSD,FX:USDCHF,FX:USDMXN,FX:USDCNH,FX:EURJPY,FX:GBPJPY,FX:EURCAD,FX:GBPAUD,FX:GBPCAD,FX:EURNZD,FX:EURAUD,FX:EURCHF I really want to trade gold and copper again, but for now I am focussed on perfecting a new strategy (I already had one before but I wanted to master a new one... I cannot help it I am too competitive...). Then I will add Futures again, and then go look at crypto, which might have stopped being unbearably pointless by then. I think we get a mighty dump in the next weeks, but that will not mean the volatility is back, just a mighty dump a sharp bounce, and then back to boredom for months or even years. I am not interested in looking at stocks. Open a few hours a day with only the first and last hours being worth spending time on? Haha no than you! I would rather do macro economics and trade indices. I cannot be bothered with the latest FOMO news and this mighty stock that will make idiots millionaires GUARENTEED.
Education
by MrRenev
1
The correction we have been tracking for weeks...=> Here it becomes perfectly acceptable to use CNH as a barometer across the EM currencies... the correction we are eyeballing across the EM spectrum is largely being dictated via China and tariffs. => Linkages between our most recent ideas from USDARS, USDTRY, USDINR and USDRUB cover the broader EM moves as the case for a bearish correction becomes strong. As most of the retail traders who saw the EM collapse late begin loading the boat we see this as a smart opportunity to begin profit taking across the board which naturally opens up opportunity for those on the sell-side in the very very short term. => From a technical perspective you can see the gradient of the slope is starting to slow as we are losing momentum here and a test of 6.7817 is very likely. A close below here will give us the opportunity to start looking for fib targets. => For those who have been following our ideas from the start you will know this is something we have been tracking for some weeks as we believe the recent leg in EM is over for now... => Good luck
by ridethepig
USDCNHWas that the top in USD/CNH? Traders should not make a living or hobby out of calling major reversals in a market, but when a combination of developments arise that signals the tides may be turning, they also shouldn’t have their head in the sand. While many people were looking to the sell-off in the Turkish Lira and the South African Rand, the turn around on a development with the funding market in China may turn out to be the real story. In short, the cost to short the Yuan jumped to the highest level since 2016 and early 2017. With China increasing the cost to borrow the Yuan, a key vehicle to short the currency while restricting Chinese bank’s ability to lend yuan off-shore, traders may be wondering if we’ll see a seven-handle on the USD/CNH anytime in the near future or later. Especially with US Dollar long positions by institutions already stretched. Adding to the narrative, unsurprisingly on Monday was US President Donald Trump, who had a few words of disappointment for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell ahead of his keynote speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The following headlines hit my terminal, which aligned with downside pressure on USD/CNH:
Short
by JGOODLAND
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Declining patterns is brokenAfter scoring a new high level last week, the USD/CNH currency exchange rate had declined throughout the second half of the week. During that time various patterns were broken. Because of that reason a review of the pair is conducted. The pair has revealed a large scale descending speculative pattern, in the borders of which a medum term channel down pattern was located at. Although, on Monday the descending pattern was already broken by a junior scale channel up pattern. The ascending pattern is most likely just representing the first move in the borders of a new to be discovered medium size pattern.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Chinese yuan is heading lower.US-China tariff war is killing China as it is the factory of the world. Look around you, how many things says 'made in china' on it? What does that mean? It means obviously China's economy is heavily relying on exports. Like what's been written on zerohedge here. 'In this context, a Sino-American trade war is not only most unwelcome but also untimely. In July, the U.S. implemented a new 25% tariff on $50 billion of imports from China. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase the tariff rate from 10% to 25% on a further $200 billion of imports from China if the latter retaliated (which it did), and even subject all $500 billion or so of annual imports to tariffs. Beijing's riposte was to threaten variable tariffs on an additional $60 billion of imports from the U.S. Since China only imports about $150 billion of goods from the U.S., the scope for its own tit-for-tat tariffs is almost exhausted. If it wants to continue hitting back at the U.S., it will have to resort to some combination of currency depreciation and the use of its extensive system of regulations to target U.S. products and companies doing business in China. As far as depreciating the yuan is concerned, the Chinese authorities are moving into dangerous territory.' Source : www.zerohedge.com 8% of depreciation is nothing, more is about to come. ***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Long
by JoE
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Senior channel as targetThe US Dollar has gained 7.10% against the Chinese Yuan since mid-June. This up-move has been stranded in a senior channel. The pair reversed from its bottom boundary two weeks ago and is gradually moving towards the other boundary located near 6.95. The US Dollar failed to surpass a trend-line near 6.85. This might indicate to a possible decline, as this strong upward momentum is unlikely to be sustainable for any longer. This bearish assumption is likewise confirmed by technical indicators converging with the price on the 4H and 1D time-frames. If the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 6.80 are breached, the next target is the senior channel and the 200-hour SMA at 6.74, while a possible target for the following two weeks is the monthly PP at 6.77. There might still be some slight appreciation within the following two days until the bearish pressure takes over the pair.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Yuan USDCNH - Wave 3 of 3 - Motive WaveSince the start of the trade war between the US and China, the Chin. Yuan has already depreciated by 8% against the US dollar. This will make Chinese products cheaper and thus cushion the US tariffs. At the same time, all US products will be 8% more expensive, plus tariffs. At the same time, US dollar-based loans are becoming more expensive and are likely to worsening the financial situation of a number of Chinese companies and thus lead to market consolidation. As you can see in the timetable, the pattern is Impulsive and the yuan is inside of the (3) circled 3. The RSI is already in the overvalued area so I expect shortly that wave (3) end and a subsequent correction wave (4) start. Best Regards Stefan Bode P.S. Do not forget to agree.
Long
by StefanBode
USDCNH to drop soon?this short seems like a very obvious play given the bearish divergence on momentum indicators and a strong bearish shooting star which is a classic reversal pattern, but I feel like theres a catch somewhere here: Either we will see a large consolidation that many will see as a bull flag and long just to get stopped out, or we will have another weak rally with obvious signs of divergence before we fall. Either way I feel that the end is near for this rally, but this is a trade that will require patience to play out. Why? because the technicals for the dollar look strong and this push up has almost no slope change causing me to believe that there may be a little bit more to rally, or we may consolidate to even out the slope because it's less likely to see such a rally followed immediately by a steep drop, usually takes a consolidation and signs of weakness (momentum loss, lower high, dollar drop etc..) causing a slope change and then a drop. A lower high would cause a more drastic drop, I believe, but if we break the previous high I would look for a correction target around the .386 and , .5 from the top. I would start accumulating pieces to a short position slowly and watch the dollar closely but this should be a nice short play in the near future. May be early but I doubt it. Reversal plays are the riskiest so play this smart and good luck.
Short
by jefskers
2
GDX to TEST below 2016 LOWS? USDCNH Devaluation GDX KillerAlthough gold futures finished fractionally higher on the day, it has closed lower on the week. This now marks the fourth consecutive week in which gold futures have closed lower and below the open on Monday. When we look at a weekly candlestick chart, we can see that even though gold closed, in essence, unchanged, it is a red colored candle indicating the close is below the open for the week. Over the last eight weeks, gold has only closed higher on only one occasion. More significant is the fact that over the previous two months gold has lost almost $100 in value. The last two months we have seen the U.S. dollar remain strong, and the U.S. equities markets continuing to hold firm and recover from the three-week selloff which began during the week of June 11. U.S. equities have gained value for the last five consecutive weeks when viewed through the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This strong risk-on environment created from rising equities prices coupled with dollar strength and rising interest rates have made safe-haven assets maintain a defensive posture. Dollar Index Closes Above 95 Although the dollar gained only fractionally today, on a weekly basis the index closed above 95 for the first time since July 2017 (on a daily chart the dollar closed at 95.11 on June 28). As of 4:30 PM Eastern standard time, the dollar index is up 0.05% and trading at 95.04. The only event holding the dollar back this week was today’s jobs report which showed that in July the U.S. gained 157,000 jobs. This was below the analyst's estimates (MarketWatch forecast) which predicted that 195,000 jobs would be added in July. The steady and growing U.S. economy continues to weigh on gold prices. As long as economic forecasts continue to reveal stability and growth, the U.S. dollar should remain firm and precious metals pricing will continue to trade under pressure. Spot gold fared much better than gold futures today resulting in a gain of $5.90. Currently, spot gold is fixed at $1,213.10. On closer inspection, today’s gains were the direct result of traders bidding up the precious yellow metal accounting for a gain of $6.50, but fractional gains in the dollar index took away $0.60 of value. On a technical basis, gold futures were able to hold above a critical support level which resides at $1,218. This level is a 0.618% retracement created from the lows ($1,124) gold traded to at the end of 2016 to the highs achieved at $1,369 this year. Below this level is a psychological support level of $1,200 per ounce, followed by a support level at $1,178 which is the 0.78% retracement level. Currently, we have major resistance at $1,240 per ounce. Wishing you as always, good trading
AMEX:GDXShort
by rocktradr
USDCNHbearish rising wedge looks ready to break for a large move down in USDCNH. This aligns with DXY topping out, the next few weeks should be interesting for this pair. Strong resistance was not able to be held on the daily and weekly ending 3/08. I posted before this big move up in USDCHN that I was long, it is now entering a reversal. see here Some insight: There are many interesting things aligning at the moment. Silver has had a double bottom on the monthly line and a strong bounce on 3/08 - please see my other post. USD is topping out. US Bond yields look to make a big move upwards. I believe this is all linked. In my last analysis of USDCNH I mentioned that China is a big bond holder of US notes and they would not want the Yuan to appreciate. My GUESS now is that China is getting ready to dump it's short bonds and selling those dollars and buying cheaper Yuan before letting the Yuan appreciate (parabolic move). This will be the retaliation on US for the trade-wars. this could set off a crisis, commodities will go upwards strongly also.
Short
by djmitchb