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USDCNH

USDCNH to drop soon?this short seems like a very obvious play given the bearish divergence on momentum indicators and a strong bearish shooting star which is a classic reversal pattern, but I feel like theres a catch somewhere here: Either we will see a large consolidation that many will see as a bull flag and long just to get stopped out, or we will have another weak rally with obvious signs of divergence before we fall. Either way I feel that the end is near for this rally, but this is a trade that will require patience to play out. Why? because the technicals for the dollar look strong and this push up has almost no slope change causing me to believe that there may be a little bit more to rally, or we may consolidate to even out the slope because it's less likely to see such a rally followed immediately by a steep drop, usually takes a consolidation and signs of weakness (momentum loss, lower high, dollar drop etc..) causing a slope change and then a drop. A lower high would cause a more drastic drop, I believe, but if we break the previous high I would look for a correction target around the .386 and , .5 from the top. I would start accumulating pieces to a short position slowly and watch the dollar closely but this should be a nice short play in the near future. May be early but I doubt it. Reversal plays are the riskiest so play this smart and good luck.
Short
by jefskers
2
GDX to TEST below 2016 LOWS? USDCNH Devaluation GDX KillerAlthough gold futures finished fractionally higher on the day, it has closed lower on the week. This now marks the fourth consecutive week in which gold futures have closed lower and below the open on Monday. When we look at a weekly candlestick chart, we can see that even though gold closed, in essence, unchanged, it is a red colored candle indicating the close is below the open for the week. Over the last eight weeks, gold has only closed higher on only one occasion. More significant is the fact that over the previous two months gold has lost almost $100 in value. The last two months we have seen the U.S. dollar remain strong, and the U.S. equities markets continuing to hold firm and recover from the three-week selloff which began during the week of June 11. U.S. equities have gained value for the last five consecutive weeks when viewed through the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This strong risk-on environment created from rising equities prices coupled with dollar strength and rising interest rates have made safe-haven assets maintain a defensive posture. Dollar Index Closes Above 95 Although the dollar gained only fractionally today, on a weekly basis the index closed above 95 for the first time since July 2017 (on a daily chart the dollar closed at 95.11 on June 28). As of 4:30 PM Eastern standard time, the dollar index is up 0.05% and trading at 95.04. The only event holding the dollar back this week was today’s jobs report which showed that in July the U.S. gained 157,000 jobs. This was below the analyst's estimates (MarketWatch forecast) which predicted that 195,000 jobs would be added in July. The steady and growing U.S. economy continues to weigh on gold prices. As long as economic forecasts continue to reveal stability and growth, the U.S. dollar should remain firm and precious metals pricing will continue to trade under pressure. Spot gold fared much better than gold futures today resulting in a gain of $5.90. Currently, spot gold is fixed at $1,213.10. On closer inspection, today’s gains were the direct result of traders bidding up the precious yellow metal accounting for a gain of $6.50, but fractional gains in the dollar index took away $0.60 of value. On a technical basis, gold futures were able to hold above a critical support level which resides at $1,218. This level is a 0.618% retracement created from the lows ($1,124) gold traded to at the end of 2016 to the highs achieved at $1,369 this year. Below this level is a psychological support level of $1,200 per ounce, followed by a support level at $1,178 which is the 0.78% retracement level. Currently, we have major resistance at $1,240 per ounce. Wishing you as always, good trading
AMEX:GDXShort
by rocktradr
USDCNHbearish rising wedge looks ready to break for a large move down in USDCNH. This aligns with DXY topping out, the next few weeks should be interesting for this pair. Strong resistance was not able to be held on the daily and weekly ending 3/08. I posted before this big move up in USDCHN that I was long, it is now entering a reversal. see here Some insight: There are many interesting things aligning at the moment. Silver has had a double bottom on the monthly line and a strong bounce on 3/08 - please see my other post. USD is topping out. US Bond yields look to make a big move upwards. I believe this is all linked. In my last analysis of USDCNH I mentioned that China is a big bond holder of US notes and they would not want the Yuan to appreciate. My GUESS now is that China is getting ready to dump it's short bonds and selling those dollars and buying cheaper Yuan before letting the Yuan appreciate (parabolic move). This will be the retaliation on US for the trade-wars. this could set off a crisis, commodities will go upwards strongly also.
Short
by djmitchb
USDCNH - OVERDONE PARABOLIC This is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD 0.01% peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold 0.77% , copper -2.43% , and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016. Comment: For a full understanding of things - read the article below. www.alhambrapartners.com
Short
by harmonay
1
China's dollar funding problem & why their currency is devaluingThis is getting politicized a ton with the ongoing "trade war" issue. I'm not writing off the fact that trade wars are a problem, and I wouldn't write off that they could have some effect on how the currency reacts. But the deval of the Yuan is unlikely to be a trade war retaliatory measure. This is worse - this is the uncontrolled devaluation of the Yuan due to China's dollar funding problems. This all ties back into their massive debt load, but also into Eurodollar markets as Jeffrey Snyder has written about extensively at www.alhambrapartners.com Take note of the timing of things. If the Yuan devaluing was a retaliatory measure, why did it so coincidentally line up with the date in which the USDHKD peg was hit? This date also lines up with big drops in gold, copper, and tons of other EM currencies. Oh, it also is the day the dollar started appreciating again. This is all a signal that the dollar short being kept in place by China hit its limits (in my opinion). This resulted in a global collateral call, and restarted the rising dollar trend which China was so desperate to stop in 2015/2016.
by GTStockmaster
USD/CNH Short IdeaUSD/CNH is showing signs of exhaustion after a bull rally which started in April 2018. Appearance of wick rejection at current high. On the day chart we see an evening star pattern, and a large bearish engulfing candle. Using fib and impulsive movement of price anticipate retracement to at least 50% or 61.8% fib level, which are key levels of this pair. Dollar is also weakening which is playing into this analysis. Placement of stop loss above previous high. Low risk to reward. Trade at your own risk. This idea is for demonstration and study purposes only.
Short
by mrsceleste
USDCNY Daily tf analysis.This analysis takes a quick look at the USDCNY on a Daily tf chart. The points noted on the chart are discussed below: (1) Major bearish trendline in the USDCNY (in color blue) that has been active since ~January 04, 2018 and was successfully tested on July 3, 2017. (2) This region marks indicates where the USDCNY is expected to find resistance on a breakout above the major trendline. This region is indicated by the price labels as ~ between $6.84 and $6.80. (3) This is the resistance area that coincides with the major trendline i.e. (1) above. The implication of both is that it indicates stronger resistance than (2) above. (3) is present between ~$6.72 and $6.67. (4) Support region between ~$6.57 and $6.53 that is expected to provide a bullish momentum upwards in price action. A break below this region is expected to see price reach between ~$6.48 and $6.44 as indicated by (5) in the chart. (6) This is the MACD with only the MACD line (blue) and signal line (orange) color shown here. Both indicate a bullish bias for the USDCNY. However, price at the trendline (1) and resistance area (2) above do suggest waiting to see what happens at the resistance area before taking further action.
by Coin_Analyst
USD/CNH ShortMarket needs some correction after that kind of rally. Bulls are exhausted. Prices didnt break 6.7 and as u can see this is an important history level. RSI, MFI, and CMF are all reversing, after peaking like mad. (on the 4hrs). The 30 minutes already completed the inside bar pattern, hourly vvill make it in 10minutes if it closes belovv 6.684. I believe in a correction that could bring us dovvn to 6.6 or 6.52 area. Maybe lovver. But those are my first 2 TP's. Stop Loss above 6.7. You can see asvvell that GOLD is trying to bounce, vvhich is inversely correlated to USD. I vvas able to catch some entries above 6.69 so I think I'm really fine on that one but it could be vvorth jumping in the train novv! VVait for some bounce and short it might be a nice idea. I'm expecting the correction for at least this vveek and I'll keep updating along the vvay, could stay until end of month maybe, depends on many things. Thanks for reading!
Short
by icebergREAL
2
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Possible decline in sightThe US Dollar was trading sideways against the Chinese Yuan during the first two weeks of June. This was followed by sudden acceleration as a result of which the rate gained 1.70% within a couple of sessions. Along the way, it breached the senior channel formed in late 2016. It is apparent on the chart that the rate has likewise reached the upper boundaries of two junior patterns near 6.49. The Greenback might still edge slightly higher during the following hours until the monthly R2 at 6.5062 are reached, as technical indicators still point to some upside potential prior to reversing to the downside. Subsequently, it is expected that the Greenback tries to make a retracement from the breached channel and the 23.60% Fibo, thus targeting the 6.41 area this week.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
FX. Looking at USD pairs for next week.Hey warriors, here is what I think and approximatly how I will trade the 10 USD pairs I am watching, 7 majors + 3 ones with good spreads and opportunities. EURUSD Trend: Bearish until further notice. Testing it right now. How to trade: Short if it gets to 50WMA / 200DMA. Long if it gets to 0.5 fib & 200WMA & 100WMA. USDJPY Trend: Unsure. How to trade: do nothing until it moves alot, at least above 111. AUDUSD Trend: Unsure. How to trade: Wait. USDCAD Trend: Unsure. Perhaps turning bullish. How to trade: Wait. GBPUSD Trend: Bear. How to trade: Short if it goes to 200DMA/150WMA, long if it goes to 100WMA. NZDUSD Trend: Bear. How to trade: Do not go long. Short it if it goes in the area with the many moving averages, and 0.5 fib. USDCHF Trend: Unsure, maybe bullish. How to trade: Go long on 0.382 fib where all the MA's are too. Don't go short. And now for the exotic pairs :D USDSEK Trend: Bull? How to trade: Go long on 0.382 fib & 100WMA. USDMXN Trend: BULL. How to trade: Just go long, unless it flashes up & there is bullish divergence. Might be risky. USDCNH Trend: Going bullish. How to trade: Short it on 200DMA, perhaps long later.
by MrRenev
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Two scenarios are shownThe price movement of USD/CNH during the past few weeks demonstrates a medium-term consolidation, meaning that the US Dollar has failed to move above the 6.3833 level, while support has been provided by an upward-sloping trend-line. Two scenarios are possible in this situation. First, a breakout of the 6.39 area should result in a surge towards the senior channel and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement at 6.42 during the following week. Second, the pair might still diminish its trading range between the aforementioned barriers until downside risks prevail and start a medium-term decline. In this case, it is likely that the pair targets the monthly PP and the weekly S2 at 6.30 within the following two weeks. Technical on the longer-term time-frames are tilting towards the bearish scenario.
by UnknownUnicorn890690