USD/CNH 1H Chart: Two scenarios are shownThe price movement of USD/CNH during the past few weeks demonstrates a medium-term consolidation, meaning that the US Dollar has failed to move above the 6.3833 level, while support has been provided by an upward-sloping trend-line.
Two scenarios are possible in this situation. First, a breakout of the 6.39 area should result in a surge towards the senior channel and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement at 6.42 during the following week.
Second, the pair might still diminish its trading range between the aforementioned barriers until downside risks prevail and start a medium-term decline. In this case, it is likely that the pair targets the monthly PP and the weekly S2 at 6.30 within the following two weeks. Technical on the longer-term time-frames are tilting towards the bearish scenario.
USDCNH
USD/CNH 4H Chart: Pair consolidates in triangleThe US Dollar keeps diminishing its trading range against the Chinese Yuan since the beginning of this year. As a result, the rate has formed a symmetrical triangle and is therefore consolidating slightly above its 2016/2018 low of 6.2570.
Even though the US Dollar has managed to push slightly away from this territory, its inability to overcome the 6.37 mark might still point to another decline. This assumption is likewise confirmed by strongly bearish technical indicators in both shorter– and longer-term time-frames.
If the given pattern is breached to the downside, the pair is likely to target the aforementioned yearly low at 6.2570 during the following two weeks. In the meantime, a northern breakout of the current trend-line at 6.3250 could result in a surge towards the 6.40 area.
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Two scenarios possibleThe US Dollar has been trading in a triangle-like formation against the Chinese Yuan since mid-January. Along the way, the pair tested the lower boundary of a four-month channel down circa 6.26.
The Greenback likewise breached the prevailing junior channel yesterday. This suggests that the pair could retrace from the breached pattern and start edging higher later in the day towards the upper triangle line at 6.37, especially given the fact that the US Dollar is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP at 6.33.
On the other hand, technical indicators demonstrate that some downside potential still exists in the market. In case this bearish scenario occurs, the proposed fall should not exceed the 6.31 mark where the bottom triangle line is located.
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Rate expected to breach resistanceUSD/CNH is trading in two descending channels which have guided its movement during the past three weeks. The rate was moving along the bottom boundaries of both patterns prior to reversing from the senior one circa 6.2575 and forming a new channel up.
The Greenback’s movement during the past two weeks has been bounded in a short-term channel down whose upper boundary coincides with one of the previously-mentioned medium-term patterns. The base scenario favours a soon breakout north towards the most senior channel circa 6.36 during this week. In order to fulfill this scenario, the rate has to overcome a significant resistance of the 200– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP near the 6.31 mark.
In case the bearish sentiment prevails, the US Dollar should be guided towards the monthly S1 near 6.2050 during the following trading sessions.
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Breakout from junior channelA channel down has confined USD/CNH for the last three months, while a junior channel was formed a four weeks ago. As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar tested the 6.2815 mark yesterday - its lowest level since mid-2015. The upper boundary of the junior formation was breached on the same day.
The Greenback has since retraced from this line and remained stranded between the weekly PP and S1 Technical indicators are still in favour of another decline, given that the northern barrier is set by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 6.31.
However, the US Dollar should gain strength within the following days, breach this area and eventually get ready for a medium-term advance towards the senior channel located in the 6.38/42 area.
USD/CNH Long term The US Dollar has continued to lose ground against the rest of the currencies. The USD/CNH pair is no exception to this event. However, there is one interesting aspect to the decline of the Buck against the Chinese Yuan.
The currency pair recently stopped its decline and began to trade sideways. The move was initiated by a combined support of the lower trend line of junior channel down pattern, weekly S1 and monthly S2. All of these support levels are located in a range from 6.4200 to 6.4290.
Meanwhile, resistance is provided by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 6.4480 mark.
The pair is likely to trade sideways until it reaches the resistance of the channel. Afterwards, the decline should resume.
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Pair remains near channelThe US Dollar’s movement against the Chinese Yuan during the past six weeks has been guided by a descending channel. The pair was trading along its bottom line last week and thus fell to its four-month low of 6.4715; however, it did eventually gain strength on Monday.
Following a test of the 6.54 mark, the Greenback initiated a new wave down—a move was disrupted by the 55-hour SMA. Given that the pair remains testing this line for several hours, it might be finally breached within this session. A subsequent fall, however, should be stopped by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs and the 23.60% Fibo retracement near 6.5050.
The steepness of the senior channel suggests that it could be breached during the next week. A surge might follow, thus setting the 6.55 area as a near-term target and 6.57—for a longer term.
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Greenback fails to pick up speedUSD/CNH has been guided by a descending channel since mid-October. The lower boundary of this medium-term pattern was tested late on Tuesday. However, a subsequent surge up was halted by the 55-hour SMA—a resistance barrier that was tested early today.
Given that the pair failed to surpass this moving average already last week, it is likely that it hinders for several hours near this line and the 100-hour SMA and the monthly S1 in the 6.5520/6.5650 territory.
The pair might even trade lower during the following hours, but it should eventually pick up speed and push towards the junior channel circa 6.58.
USD/CNH 1H Chart: Rate trapped in triangleA symmetrical triangle has dominated the USD/CNH currency pair since early August. It seems that this pattern has reach maturity, thus pointing to a soon breakout.
As apparent on the chart, the US Dollar has likewise formed a channel down. It is currently testing the upper boundary of this pattern.
The given currency has just moved above the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMA. This suggests that traders might still see a slight movement north. However, this advance should be limited by the upper triangle boundary and the weekly R1 in the 6.6550/6600 area.
Given that the pair entered the senior pattern from above, the breakout is likely to be southwards. Thus, even if the rate manages to reach 6.6550, the US Dollar is expected to depreciate against the Chinese Yuan in the medium term.
USDCNH on two resistance trends coalescingTwo strong resistances are coalescing together, unlikely price will succeed pushing higher here especially with DXY losing steam as well. We have what appears to be two pennants, one pennant in another.
Stop loss should be somewhere around those upper wicks on previous candles.
USD/CNH meets long term supportThe US Dollar has been plummeting against the Chinese Yuan during the second half of August. However, it seems that the decline of the Buck against the Yuan has ended.
The currency exchange rate has met the support of a rather week long term descending channel pattern near the 6.5240 mark. It is possible that the trend line managed to hold its ground because of the weekly S1, which is located at that level.
Since then the pair has managed to score gains and reach the 6.56 mark, and it is expected to continue the surge. However, politics are more likely to set the exchange rate.