Get started

USDCNH

USDCNH Bottomed / BTC-Crypto ForecastDear traders, I believe we are at a critical juncture here. Quite possibly, China allowing shorting of their currency might have made the $USDCNH pair bottom last Friday. This is no minor news, and if we study the chart we might be able to understand the relationship between the chinese Yuan and cryptocurrencies. Since 2014, that $USDCNH bottomed, it spent a long time basing, before starting a prolonged bull market. On the way up, said bull market was showing signs of exhaustion, which us, using the Time @ Mode methodology could see and anticipate. ByFebruary 2017, it was clear that bull market had ran its course, at least for a few months. After a period of distribution, with the government making efforts to strengthen the Yuan, severely punishing speculators, forbidding the shorting of the currency, and increasing rates to borrow the Yuan, the market topped and started a strong decline. The signals on chart indicated a fall to at least 6.54509 was warranted, within March/April until November/December 2017. Since this target was exceeded, it is likely that the market is bottoming, or possible bottomed. This doesn’t mean mmedate upside, but possibly a period of basing in the daily or weekly timeframe might ensue. This aligns with the time duration of the decline, ending by November or December of this year. After the end of November, if $USDCNH bases around here, the market will be ready to surge upwards during December! How does this matter for cryptocurrencies? Well, the long term forecast I made available long ago, with the only change being the price target getting extended to 6303.98, had a time duration of 20 months, culminating during November/December 2017. This also happens to correlate nicely with the timing of fundamental events that can derail the bull market in crypto like the Segwit2x hard fork, and interestingly, with a period that already started, that of increased scrutiny and regulatory oversight, which might culminate in the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC, which is what the long term technical charts suggest. Now, what are the risks? There is a chance we already topped, since target #1 in the weekly was hit, and we already saw some pressure from bears lately, but there is a larger probability that the market won’t fall immediately, since I assume that the smart money will need time to liquidate their holdings. How can they buy themselves time now? Maybe approving an ETF for trading in the US, like the Winklevoss, and maybe even the ETH ETF surfaces and is approved...But, I’m pretty sure, that the writings are on the wall, the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC is well overdue, so, I will start taking precautions. First, I will look to accumulate long positions in the $USDCNH pair, as my first move, and econd, I will be ready to hedge or liquidate holdings if needed, to then redistribute to my other accounts in equities and currencies, reducing my crypto position to only 25% of my net worth. If we do start a bear market, shorting might be a profitable endeavor, so, why not? In the short term, I’m following sentiment and technical charts, to determine if my bullish outlook is correct or not. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
39
USDCNY. Filling the Mega Gap. Wave 5One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart. Frankly speaking I thought USDCNY is in a correction before I squeezed the chart, the Monthly chart. The pair had a Mega GAP in 1994. It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap. We could be in the last large wave down to hit the 5.8145 mark. This idea is opposite to the primary market opinion of imminent devaluation of yuan.
Short
by aibek
5
Move on, nothing to see hereSideways movement predicted for USDCNH till the end of 2017. Nothing to see here, move on to another pair. Fundamentals -CNY fixing (Higher swaps -> lesser short interest) (Authority looking to keep yuan stable. Volatile Yuan -> Bad for economy) -Fed Rate Decision (Yuan least affected by fed decision -> see capital flows for direction of currency) -Balance of Payments (Don't expect BOP to deviate in extreme fashion -> See FX reserves) -Devalued Yuan is providing support to economy -> improvement in industrial profits Technicals Strong resistance at 7.0, Support expected to deviate between 6.7 - 6.75 Black Swan Events -Real Estate Bubble pops - 20% (Personally, I do not expect the bubble to pop in 2017. Open for debate) No further explanation needed -Donald Trump - 5% (North Korea deal informally reached? -> See Xi's visit to US) "China is a currency manipulator" -> competitive devaluation
by AnthonyLi7f
BTC; The long term view, looking for price drivers and ChinaThere are links between bitcoin and Chinese capital outflows and the control thereof and currency relations / controls of Chinese currency. The relationship is highlighted with the comparison of the prices of BTCUSD (light blue area ) and USDCNH ( Dark blue line ). This is useful in helping to form an idea of which direction the BTC may take. Currently there is a divergence in the price between BTC and USDCNH, which may point to a future weakening of bitcoin demand. Both the trends remain in a long term bull pattern as long as another higher high is made. Currently there is some divergence in the price between BTC and USDCNH, which may point to a future weakening of bitcoin demand or at least slowing of the momentum of this trend. I am watching to see if the USDCNH reverses its trend and the Chinese Yuan starts strengthening. If so I will become bearish on the bitcoin. Currently, because the Yuan is still moving upwards, respecting the brown/orange trendline and the bitcoin is also in a bull trend. However I will change my opinion to neutral if the Yuan ( blue ) breaks through the orange trend line . I will probably change to a bearish stance if the bitcoin follows suit and forms a lower low, past the $950 / $900 area.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Quadricolor
USCNH will move higher on capital flows out of ChinaMore and more economic data is showing that Chinese nationals are sending money abroad. Currency reserves are getting depleted and the Bank of China is allowing the CNY mid-point band to move lower. I see a long term move up significantly higher in USD versus CNH. But, Chinese interest rates are high making a carry differential that favors CNH. Probably will day trade this's over the course of many months versus one long position. seekingalpha.com
Long
by ByDHTaylor
All Eyes on the First Donald Trump and Xi Jinping Meeting TodayAll Eyes on the First Donald Trump and Xi Jinping Meeting Today Daily Technical Analysis Thursday, April 6, 2017 USDCNH - On the First Time, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meets today. What do you expect for USDCNH market today? A further advance trend? The US economy has in good standing position after FOMC results. The US Initial Jobless claims report will be release today. Do you expect US Dollar may react on Donald Trump and Xi Jinping important meeting?
Long
by MarketChameleonFX
$BTC testing highs and why USDCNH mattersBitcoin highly correlates with Dollar pair volatility these days, these are signs the market has matured a lot. Which makes sense since the CFTC considers it a commodity these days as more CFTC approved derivatives are on the way. US largest trading partner is China, any market correlation done on any asset if you ask me starts with capital flow from those areas, Europe is a close second which is why you're seeing great coordination between central banks in these economies. I believe the breakout into ATH's on Bitcoin will go together with the continuation of the USD bull market. China is hugely Dollar hedged which is why PBoC will simply keep fixing CNY down to benefit off this.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by W.D._Goon