USDCNH
Is USDCHN now in a cup-with-handle base?The offshore RMB is the orange line. As you can see, the history is too short, so the main USDCNY chart is shown.
SPY daily declining patternI don't usually read much from daily patterns. This one is just for fun. It is going to break the lower bound of the sliding channel any time soon. But before that, it can temporarily go up a little bit.
USDCNH: Weekly short setup, long the laggardUSDCNH is a very interesting pair right now.
In this chart you can see a few instruments, pitted against each other.
Currently, talking currencies, the offshore yuan is lagging the group, compared to the other dollar pairs on chart, and it happens to have a weekly time at mode downtrend signal, which confirmed last week on close, which gives us targets of 6.37 and 6.28, with a possibility based on the monthly, of hitting 6.05 in the long term.
Keep a wide stop loss if you take this trade, I'd reccomend 1 to 3 ATR for the stop, and short at market.
As a sidenote, you can also see that Palladium and Copper are lagging the group. Now, this could mean that on a relative strength basis, the Yen, Canadian dollar and gold, are safer investments, but it also implies they have already moved a lot, and they might not have as much room up, compared to CNH, EUR, AUD, Copper or Palladium.
I'm willing to wager on the latter being true.
Keep risk reasonable, and good luck if you take this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$USDCNH Bearish Wolfe Wave: 60 MinHello Traders,
Following the theme of this weeks chart. Here is another Wolfe Wave that is underway on the hourly time frame in the US Dollar Chinese Yuan Pair. Look for an exit at the 1-4 Line
Pound and Yen look edgy in volatility mapUseful for adjusting positions, sizes, stops, strategy & hedging
USDCNH, AUDUSD and NZDUSD: Don't fade an uptrendIn this chart I break down the price action in these 3 pairs. USDCNH is in a strong 2 day chart downtrend, and about to breach a key level on chart. Once below we can see it trade significantly lower, or even go back to the start of the recent massive PBOC devaluation rally start.
AUDUSD, I have covered and even given a long entry for this trend, currently not giving a continuation signal, but the rally is so strong that it has become ridiculous to attempt shorting it. Usually, when a long term trend reverses, the reversal move is so violent that leaves everyone wondering what happened, waiting for retracements that never come to join, or simply getting stopped time and time again fading it.
It has broken all resistances so far, and I'd like to see a new 10 bar+ level or it moving to the weekly timeframe or a different timeframe to trade it. For now, the 2 bar timeframe has proven effective, and unsurprisingly, it's acting like CNH, gaining strength when the chinese currency does.
NZDUSD, there's a huge 10 day timeframe uptrend signal that will trigger soon, (could be a 17 week confirmed uptrend too, but might be too many bars at the mode). I'm long with a wide stop, and will add on retrace, and add as the trend progresses. It'll be hard to join, if you're not an avid position trader, and try to slap on tight stops and catch retracements. If we get further opportunities to long, it'll be a nice one to join.
CoT positions in Milk futures show commercials have lowered shorts aggressively and are now flat, and creeping into the long side.
Copper, commercials are flat, but might go net long soon, favoring this long Asia thesis.
I think these trends are here to stay, don't miss out on the moves to come.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCNH 2hr 4mo wedge breakoutTight range, tight moving averages, recent usd/cnh volatility.
Note the dark blue MA which may act as support for the bottom of the wedge. We want a candle printed below it for confirmation of support collapsing before we enter. We don't want to be first in the trade; we want to be correct.
USDCNH: RMB has toppedAfter forecasting the path this pair would take with considerable precision, I jumped on the short side.
Presently we have short positions running, and we plan to add to them as described on chart.
The target is a time at mode 17 bar decline target's, but it could extend further down, maybe even to the mode at 6.21329.
This pair has been really volatile, and trending excellently, both up, and down, so it has become one of my personal favorites. It's also useful to analyze it, and other Asian theater currencies, to have a sufficiently precise macro view.
Good luck if taking this trade.
If interested in my services, contact me privately, see my profile for details.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
- USDCNH - trading planContains every bit of info that is useful to me. Break out price aren't that accurate though. I'll have to perfectionise those when the time comes.
USDCNH very tight triangleWith the current low volatility there is a good chance to enter with very small stop loss level and have a reward of 1:12 near-term target is 6.66 long term 10.
Update on Copper - Breakdown ContinuesI already took a profit on my last position. I am adding to my position here. Dear old China should take us to our target.
USDCNH Short overnightThe onshore offshore spread is more than 0.11. In my oppinion, the BoC will have to fix the yuan higher.
Sinopec: Bearish signals on chartSinopec, China's leading oil company and publicly traded company appears to be in a 6 week uptrend currently, leading right to a strong low volume resistance level, if the target is hit.
Overall, the bias would be to the downside, but there are a few different ways that price can behave.
The first would be breaking the blue line and heading straight down, and the others involve rallying an hitting the red resistance level before turning south.
Keep close watch of it, might be a good economic indicator.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in.
All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
Multiple Dollar pairs suggest downThis is an interesting portfolio.
Will these pairs follow USDCNH's lead?
Is this the beginning of a new fundamentally backed intermediate term trend?
Or just a very nice short term short?
Setups on chart, we will cover these in our skype group's discussions.
If you want live updates and more information, make sure to contact me via pm or skype. I provide signals for auto trading. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom where we give education to traders, as well as discussing the positions we're in.
All of these are free of charge for concordbay.com customers.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
