Get started

USDCNH

USD/CNH: Bullish pennant pattern formed – Yuan to fall to 7.20?The US dollar-Chinese yuan pair ( USD/CNH ) has been trading on a bullish pennant pattern since April of this year, and is currently testing the critical 7.00 threshold, which corresponds to the close of July 2020 and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level (2022 lows to May 2020 highs). Following the PBoC's decision to reduce Chinese domestic banks' forex reserve requirement ratio by 200 basis points to 6% beginning September 15, the 7.00 mark level may face some selling pressure from the bears. This policy action could in fact free up dollars to be converted into Chinese yuan to sustain the economic slowdown caused by the reinstatement of Covid-19 restrictions. The USD/CNH pullback may find support at 6.89 (1 September lows) or 6.85 (61.8% Fibonacci level). But if 7.00 is broken, then 7.20 might be next. This target (7.20) represents the height of the flagpole when added to the breakout point and will complete the Fibonacci retracement to the highs of May 2020. Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
FX trader - All upside for the USD as the JPY is carted outIt’s days like this that running a trend and/or momentum strategy works wonders. The USD pairs, notably USDJPY, USDCNH and USDCHF are ripping – We see the JPY as the weakest though with USDJPY spiking to 143.59 in early trade today, on what looks like a stop run through yesterday's session highs and amid thin liquidity. The trade-weighted JPY sits at the lowest level since 2007 and some are questioning if the risks of verbal JPY jawboning from the Bank of Japan or the Ministry of Finance (MoF) have increased? Potentially, but in this current bond driven dynamic the market will pounce on JPY weakness. Consider that we haven’t seen a sizeable lift in Japan’s inflation expectations as a consequence of Japan importing inflation (through the FX channels) and that will appease the BoJ. Commodity prices have come well off the highs, which will benefit energy importers (like Japan). However, we are back to trading central bank divergence – FX trading in its purest form, albeit from a fundamental perspective. Don’t fight the Fed means staying long the USD, at least for now. We can see the central bank divergence manifest in the FX forwards markets, where corporate treasurers are able to roll over USDJPY exposures for 12 months at a 600-pip discount – interest rate parity dictates this, but when you get this level of carry you know the JPY has very little safe-haven qualities, and in this current environment the JPY is simply a bond proxy. For the JPY to really head higher bond yields need to trend lower – the JPY (and perhaps gold) would become the default hedge if bond yields really started to head lower on global recession fears – not a trade for right now, but it could play out in late 2022 – recognise the signs and have the theme on the radar. The fact we continue to watch US bond yields climb is pushing more capital into the USD – some of the recent moves can be explained by US corporates issuing a high level of corporate debt and the market having to sell out of other fixed income instruments to fund this. Some have been driven by slightly better US data (ISM services for example). US ‘real’ rates (US Treasuries adjusted for expected inflation) are moving higher and higher. It also feels like the USD market is front-running Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT), which ramps up to the incredible pace of $95b this month - we have seen a strong relationship between falling Fed reserve liabilities and the USD and if this relationship is maintained then USDJPY could be headed for Y150+ over time. Draining reserves (system liquidity) aside, the real effect from QT would come if the US Treasury were to beef up issuing longer-duration Treasuries in late 2022/early 2023 – when you remove a price-insensitive buyer (the Fed) from the market the private sector is asked to step up the heavy lifting, and that can mean compensation in the form of higher bond yields. Is the FX market front-running this QT process…? Feels like that is the case. The BoJ on the other hand remain steadfast in its dovish stance and the market may start to think about taking them on again. We shall see, but the easier trade has just been to short the JPY, than the Japanese bond market. Next Tuesday we get US August CPI, and this could be huge for the markets and especially the USD. The market will go into a frenzy of excitement about the implications of the CPI print, but in a world where we’re so desperate to hear of peak inflation if we get an upside surprise, it could be painful for USD shorts. Of course, with the world so long of USDs, a downside surprise vs consensus, especially if it came from both headline and core inflation. The playbook is set, but needless to say, this is the event risk to have on the radar. Nearer-term we listen to speeches from Fed VC Brainard (02:35 AEST) and Chair Powell (Thursday 23:10 AEST) and their views will move the USD, so keep this on the risk radar.
Long
by Pepperstone
As policies continue to diverge…For readers who have been following us right from our first ever TradingView idea, you’ll recall our first ever trade idea on long USDCNH. It’s been a fun 5 months writing and sharing our thoughts with the community. Much has happened since April, but two critical things stayed the same. The US Federal Reserve remains hawkish, raising rates, while the PBoC remains dovish, continuing with its easing stance. The result? USDCNH trading beyond the 6.9 level, surpassing both our target levels. With the next Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we think it’s time to review this idea again. The CME FedWatch Tool allows us to gauge what market participants are expecting the Fed to do. The prevalent consensus seems to be that the Fed is likely to raise rates till the end of the year before holding rates at the 3.75 – 4.00 % level for the next year. On the other hand, the PBoC has continued to ease, cutting reserve requirement ratios & lowering its medium-term lending facility. With China still battling Covid via lockdowns, persistently low inflation numbers, and weak economic numbers, we see further easing on the cards from PBoC. Looking at the charts, the USDCNH pair has just completed a symmetrical triangle chart pattern. After breaking out to the upside and a brief pull-back, prices continued upwards with strong momentum. Using classical charting techniques, the target levels for the breakout can be set to the distance of the high and low of the symmetrical triangle and applied to the top of the triangle. With the target price of 7.1180, there is still upside for this trade. It seems that policy divergence will remain for these two major economies, which is likely to strengthen the USD and weaken the CNH further, driving up the USDCNH pair. Using technical to identify target levels where we will be comfortable, we think that there is room for more upside. Entry at 6.9500, stop at 6.8545. Target at 7.1180. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. Reference: www.cmegroup.com
CME:CNH1!Long
by inspirante
9
USDCNH breakoutPrice broke up this triangle📐 and I think there is chance for run to 6.92 and even higher. Setting BUY LIMIT order to previous range high to catch🎣 the pullback. Resistances along the way ENTRY : local high @ 6.735 STOPLOSS (SL) : local low @ 6.668 TARGET (TP) : height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY LIMIT - STOPLOSS) @ 6.92 REWARD RISK RATIO (RRR) : 2.8 INVALIDATION : when SL level hit Check my other stuff in related ideas. Please boost🚀, comment🗣️, follow me✒️, enjoy📺! ⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Long
by bizmark
7
US Dollar Ready to Resume Rise Against the Chinese Yuan?Following a few months of consolidation, the US Dollar seems to be making some upside progress against the Chinese Yuan. Fundamentally speaking, a hawkish Federal Reserve and dovish People's Bank of China offer upside potential for USD/CNH. This also follows measures from China's government (about 1 trillion Yuan) to bolster the economy. In response, USD/CNH is trying to confirm a breakout above the May high (6.8376). Key resistance seems to be the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension (6.8833). Further gains place the focus on the 61.8% and 78.6% levels at 6.9460 and 7.0353 respectively. Keep a close eye on the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). These could reinstate the upside focus in the event of a turn lower. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
USDCNH - Dollar is kingFollowing my post on HSI, my focus is also on USDCNH pair. My take is that it is in an upward channel and given the differing monetary policies by the Fed and PBoC, my take is that USD will continue to strengthen. However, we should pay more attention to the Jackson Hole symposium for more insights on the Fed's future rate policies as well as the US labour market which seems to be still red hot. On the technical front, if the dollar crosses 6.842, there is likely to be greater upside. Else if it closes well below 6.83, then likely to continue the downward trend to the next retracement level. Based on stoch, it appears to be a buying signal but the volume is still weak.
by TraderXR
UNPOPULAR OPINION USDCNHThings you should not bet against and one major of them is commodity currencies. I have done research based on sentiments and everyone is looking for a crisis out of china to be break its market, especially in the housing market. This is my personal view based on a group of commodity currencies a reversal in all of them in almost certain. Will this push for a second wave of inflation "YES" not likely to be felt a few year is monetary policies reverse which I see them doing, but if they become more aggressive then risk of uncertainty is extremely high also Risk of emerging markets could be far worse that we imagine. Long commodities and commodity currencies.
Short
by Beclinks_Capital
USDCNH 11th JULY 2022Apart from the very aggressive increase in interest rates by the US central bank (The Fed), the recession issue has also made the US dollar a safe-haven choice. The Fed until last June has raised interest rates 3 times with a total of 150 basis points to 1.5% - 1.75%. This month, the world's most powerful central bank will again increase by 50 - 75 basis points, and by the end of the year interest rates are projected to be in the range of 3.25% - 3.5%. This certainly supports the strengthening of the US dollar. USD is predicted to continue to strengthen for at least the next 3 months.
Long
by DNP-FX
2
#USDC.DOMINANCE PRINTING BEARISH DIVERGENCE IN DAILY CHART !!Hello, community members welcome to another BTC/USDT chart update. If you find this update helpful, shoot the like button follow and share your views in the comment section. As we can see from the above-mentioned chart that USDC DOMINANCE is currently printing a bearish divergence and it can move down from here. The candle close above will be harsh for bull traders in USDT pair coins. Let’s hope for the best and see how the market performs in the upcoming hours. NOTE: This is not financial advice. This is for education purposes only. I am not responsible for the profits or losses you generate from your investments. DO YOUR RESEARCH BEFORE MAKING ANY TRADES. Thank you.
CRYPTOCAP:USDC.D
by Domino_Crypto
USD/CNH Falling Wedge May Hint at Uptrend ResumptionThe US Dollar has been rising against the Chinese Yuan in June so far. On the 4-hour chart, USD/CNH appears to be carving out a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation. A breakout above, with resistance as the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 6.7304, opens the door to perhaps revisiting the May high at 6.8375. Otherwise, a turn back lower towards 6.6131 would keep the Yuan on a slow and steady appreciation course against the US Dollar within the boundaries of the Falling Wedge. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
USDCNY 31st MAY 2022Asian shares erased early losses in Tuesday afternoon trade, as signs that China's economic pain may be gradually easing amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions overshadowed broader investor concerns about a global inflation shock. Also lifting sentiment in the Asian region were details of Beijing's new policy support, which includes cash grants to hire fresh graduates and support for internet companies that list overseas. China's official PMI for May showed factory activity continued to decline but at a slower pace than in April. USDCNH APRIL 2022 USDCNH MARCH 2022
Long
by DNP-FX
USD/CNH May Resume Broader Uptrend as China Faces Growth WoesThe US Dollar may regain its footing against the Chinese Yuan amid favorable fundamental headwinds. China's zero-Covid policy has been weighing on local economic output. Meanwhile, rising fears of a recession in the US are slowly weakening global growth expectations. This leaves China in a tricky spot, even if conditions open up locally. A slowing global economy could sap the demand for Chinese goods. Diverging monetary policy is also favoring the US Dollar against the Chinese currency. On the daily chart, USD/CNH has left behind a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Further upside follow-through could open the door to further gains. That would place the focus on the May high at 6.8376. Otherwise, clearing immediate support at 6.6480 exposes the Mat low at 6.6119 as the 50-day Simple Moving Average nears.
by QM_Dubrovsky