Get started

USDCNY

USDCNY Establishing a New Accumulation Range The price action of USDCNY is currently establishing a major Accumulation range, as postulated by the Wyckoff Method, between the support level at 6.3450 and the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level. The completion of the preceding downtrend, underscored by the descending channel, is confirmed by the completion of a 1-5 Elliott impulse wave pattern. A potential breakout above the upper limit of the channel could signify a subsequent test of the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci once more.
by Trendsharks
1
USDCNY About to Test a Historic SupportUSDCNY's downtrend accelerated earlier today following the release of the surprising crunch in China's trade surplus, underpinning falling global demand. The downtrend is taking the form of a 1-5 impulse wave pattern, as postulated by the Elliott Wave Theory. Seeing as how the price action is currently in the process of developing the final impulse leg (4-5), a bullish pullback may be due soon. On the other hand, the ADX indicator continues to thread above the 25-point mark, highlighting the strength of the downtrend.
Short
by Trendsharks
USDCNY Developing a 1-5 Elliott Impulse Wave PatternThe price action of the USDCNY continues to be developing a major 1-5 impulse wave pattern, as postulated by the Elliott Wave Theory. Given the declining bearish momentum in the short term, as underpinned by the MACD indicator, a pullback to the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level at 6.4156 is likely to ensue next. This would serve as the second retracement leg (3-4) of the Elliott pattern. A potential reversal there would then underpin the likely beginning of the third impulse leg (4-5). Bears can look for an opportunity to sell there on the expectations for a subsequent dropdown to the previous swing low at 6.3570.
Short
by Trendsharks
USDCNY Likely to Rebound From the 23.6% Fibonacci The price action of the USDCNY pair has been range-trading since the 16th of July, as underpinned by the ADX indicator. Bearish pressure has been slowly accumulating over the same period, which is illustrated by the current reading of the Stochastic RSI indicator. The price action is likely to reach a new dip at the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, which is the closest psychologically significant support level. A bullish rebound can be expected to occur there, given the current development of a Descending Wedge pattern. The latter represents a classic trend reversal pattern. The first major target for the renewed uptrend would be the descending trend line (in red) just above the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci.
Long
by Trendsharks
Cataclysms are brewing in the global stock markets. China.All because of the situation with one of the largest developers in China - China Evergrande Group, which found itself on the verge of default (debt size ~ $ 300 billion). The possible bankruptcy of the company will hurt not only the Chinese economy (remember Lehman Brothers). Deposits in Chinese banks are about to $35 trillion, which is twice the size of the United States. Chinese financial crisis will lead to unforeseen circumstances and will affect all world markets. Industrial production has negative rates in China. Now it is near the lowest level since the global financial crisis. The devaluation of the yuan seems inevitable. Best regards EXCAVO
Long
by EXCAVO
10
USDCNY Testing a Triangle The price of USDCNY is establishing a new downtrend. It is structured as a 1-5 impulse wave pattern, as postulated by the Elliott Wave Theory. After having broken down below the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level, the price action is currently testing the lower limit of the Triangle. If it manages to break down below it as well, then the price action would be able to head towards the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci. However, a rebound from the lower limit of the Triangle would see the price action testing the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci from below. The latter is currently converging with the 50-day MA (in green), making it an even more powerful resistance level.
Short
by Trendsharks
USDCNY to Fall Towards the Lower End of the Accumulation The USDCNY continues to find itself in a solid downtrend. This is illustrated by the ADX indicator, which has been threading above the 25-point benchmark since late September 2020. The ADX reached a peak around the time the price action fell to the upper boundary of the last Accumulation range at 6.4700. Afterwards, the price went on to establish a false bullish rebound. The latter materialised in a Dead Cat Bounce pattern, which typically represents a temporary break in the development of a broader downtrend. The pattern failed to strengthen above the 20-day MA (in red), which is why the USDCNY was then able to break down within the Accumulation range. That is why the strength of the underlying Markdown - an essential component of the Wyckoff Cycle - appears to be waning down, as underpinned by the ADX indicator after February 2021. This represents an early signal that the USDCNY is once again getting ready to consolidate in a new range. Before this can happen, however, the price action looks poised to fall to the Accumulation range's lower boundary at 6.2650 once again.
Short
by Trendsharks
EUR USD TO 1.5 - DUMP USD INDEX TO 80 - with 20% upside for RMBhey the dollar going down down down against these giant EUR and RMB . the rise of Asian currencies also help pushes the dollar lower. when the banks WAKES UP tomorrow finding that the dollar vaults is the WORST PERFORMER ASSET OF THE YEAR they will dump the usd debt papers on the streets and causing the ugliest drop for usd, simply because its hugely oversupplied.. only real utilize is 10% from its total money/paper printed. and negative return. they will shift usd to other yielding currencies with good interest ##my experience 12 yrs of trading all sorts of paper assets.
Long
by CryptoGainers
Market Insight: Maintaining a forecast of 6.30 by end 2021 - INGING discussed its expectations for the USDCNY in a recent note to clients. Finally, the PBoC acts to deter yuan appreciation After several rounds of talking down yuan appreciation, China's central bank has now taken some firmer action. The PBoC will raise fx deposit reserves from 5% to 7% effective from 15th June. This comes after the PBoC appreciated the USDCNY fixing this morning to 6.3681 from last Friday's 6.3858. Will this work? We believe that this increase in foreign deposit reserves will help to deter speculators and shield the yuan from further rapid appreciation unless those speculators believe that the yuan wil appreciate by more than 2% points from now even after the PBoC has sent this strong signal. In short, this should be enough to slow the pace of the yuan's appreciation. But it may not stop it. Is this a backward move on exchange rate liberalisation? This sounds a bit like a retrograde step to the PBoC's ambitions on exchange rate liberalisation. But it isn't really. Looking at the fixing, which continued this morning to follow overnight developments of the dollar index, it looks as if the PBoC still wants to stick to the idea of exchange rate liberalisation. But this is difficult to achieve if the PBoC doesn't like speculators occasionally taking charge of the direction and pace of the yuan FX market. A market consists of FX users and investors, including speculators. We interpret the foreign deposit reserves as a tool to deter speculation, not yuan users (such as exporters and importers). And this type of administrative measure will continue to be used repeatedly when yuan moves look to be dominated too much by speculators. We are maintaining our USDCNY forecast at 6.30 for the end of 2021.
by thunderpips
Chinese letting the USD recover while they conquer the universeIf you like Elliott waves this pair is doing a wave 4, looking at the chart more than just ultra zoomed in we can see those appear previously: On 1 hour the price is going ABC and ending with a strong red candle like some "capitulation" I think it can drop quickly a last time then reverse. If the price on this 1 hour makes a double bottom or V shape bounce is not important and I don't look too much into it buyers are sellers are fighting on the daily chart, this has nothing to do with day gambling as retail does not trade this pair AUDNZD still has 40 times more myfxbook positions than USDCNH, AUDNZD more relevant to the world economy according to retail :) It just hits the eyes, clearly this is not part of the big 2020 downtrend where China was rearing a dumper truck full of usd and unloading. What China FX reserves are made of is classified info, all I know is they are human and they are all the same, they are done selling for now (not contractual info), I'm sure they have some usd left at least a trillion, not in their best interest for the USD to go to zero (yet). I don't know who the dumbasses buying the USD are, well there is me 🙂, but anyway there are always buyers; Since this is now clear to everyone it is not just a little pullback in a downtrend it could continue for a little while. When it went down it did following a clear trendline all the way down, now it is following a trendline on the way up. A bit too simple... The chinese all too communist to make money in the exchange markets? But Karl Marx loved the markets (probably due to a "I don't want to work if only I could make a lot of money on a luck streak" and gambler mentality). Plus chinese government letting everyone know what they are doing in advance haha. Maybe it's not "inefficient" as US regulators love to say, it's simply that in the absence of retail gamblers no one is stupid enough to go against the painfully obvious trend when the government announces what they are doing? How is sentence even a thing, how are these people so bad? 😆 Nah they're a tiny minority in FX they can't possibly have a significant impact, just bankers hate risks and love simple trendlines, and FX doesn't have that many speculators trying to extract money since 2008-2013. FX undervalued by now. The USA are not part of the OBOR/BRI project. China not investing long term into the US, their future commercial mega-empire does not need them doesn't mean they don't need them NOW. Idk not much more to say, the price here is at the risk point it could reverse from here so best cheapest place to take a buy, close to getting invalidated, maximum financial opportunity.
Long
by MrRenev
2
8 Good Reasons To Short USDFive world-class investors that are bearish on USD... 1) Ray Dalio “You can’t continue to run deficits, sell debt or print money rather than be productive and sustain that over a period of time. If we don’t work together to do the sound things, to be productive, to earn more than we spend, to build the stability of our currency and build a good balance sheet, we are going to decline." www.marketwatch.com 2) Stephen Roach "The US dollar could collapse by the end of 2021 and the economy can expect a more than 50% chance of a double-dip recession" “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit” “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.” markets.businessinsider.com 3) Hugh Hendry “When I look at the world of macro, I think it’s telling us that we need a lower print on the dollar itself.” “I think we need the Treasury, and not the Fed, to step up to the plate and tell the world ‘we’re going to target 70 or 60 on the dollar index.’ That would change the world.” www.cnbc.com 4) Warren Buffet "The rest of the world owns $10 trillion of us, or $3 trillion net." "If lots of people try to leave the market, we'll have chaos because they won't get through the door." "If we have the same policies, the dollar will go down." moneyweek.com 5) Ulf Lindahl will plunge 36% against the euro over the next year or so, taking it to levels it has not seen in more than a decade, and “is the beginning of a very large move.” www.reuters.com Note: Analysts from Citi, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock are also bearish on USD www.aljazeera.com markets.businessinsider.com www.reuters.com
Short
by UnknownUnicorn13791118
1
ridethepig | SHCOMP for the Yearly Close📌 Another round of updates for the Yearly close on the MT and LT maps, sellers may still be in control but buyers are flirting with that breakup. This will occupy the battlefield and unlock a test of 4,500 for 2021. What is wrong with the bull case is exhausting to list; the exchange of capital from public to private assets is developing sooner than I expected. After Trump lost it is opening the window and front door for capital outflows. I am not interested in personalities with politics, when you have been in this business for too long you either understand or learn to never trust politicians on either side. Biden implementing the typical "vote me in and i'll get the guy who caused this" manoeuvre is carrots on a stick. Economic cycles are more powerful than politics. As we have seen, monetary policy has been employed and constitutes an excellent weapon for this 'reset'. After PBOC 'whatever it takes' moment, we managed to trade more or less to the tick on the lows as the exchange was easy to track: Now once we approached the highs we began to track for signs of a possible top. On the one hand, the ABC is very strong and must absolutely continue holding for sellers to have a valid setup. However, an immediate attack on the highs looks somewhat easier now as we ran out of time on the U.S. political front. So, the correct moves for 2021 is now the freeing impulsive swing rather than the previous retracement: But we must quite specifically keep an eye on continuation of sharp speculators outguessing government defaults cooking and the early game has started. Possibly the occupation of 4,500 and beyond. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
SLong
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | CNY for the Yearly Close📌 CNY for the Yearly Close... In the usual tradition, this topping formation appeared to fit the bill! The correct way to play it was for sellers to proceed; dollar weakness was knocking while CNY was quite tenable. It is now obvious that the above mentioned development has been less time consuming that the initial legs higher: This means the position we are tracking into the yearly close appears quite harmless but is very alarming. Sellers are now threatening to occupy the lows, in addition it has been quite comfortable for them with Trump unable to say much, the Biden Whitehouse will ensure dollar devaluation with extreme care. This year has clearly been the year of the yuan. In order to chase the moves lower; let's look for some targets and areas to unload liquidity - I am tracking 6.242x for the minor targets and 6.040x for the major targets in 2021. This obviously recognises the charming continuations, sellers should look for any weak rallies to scale into towards year-end. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
Dollar will keep fallingChina is US' 2nd biggest trading partner after EU and watch what is happening with Dollar vs Yuan...dollar running through no volume zone, no liquidity to stop the fall. I marked where is next major support. Turnover between US and EU is not so different as that is with China. List of the largest trading partners of the United States 1 European Union 717,902 2 China 635,364 Sell dollar rallies on USDXXX pairs... Buy XXXUSD rallies...Eurusd is likely to hit 1.22.
Short
by ICFX