ridethepig | USDCNH into the elections📍 USDCNH into the elections
Oct 2020
Markets are moving quickly.
Sellers completed the third wave target at 6.629x as widely expected. The pullback we are tracking in wave 4 is now brilliant proof of a lust to expand even further down.
In the 2020 macro chart, we are ahead of schedule and a healthy pullback into the elections, followed by an exchange lower seems like the pragmatic play.
Of course if you are short from above you have nothing to do but continue to add on pullbacks, but for those wanting to get closer to the flows, a leg back towards 6.85x seems highly likely.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
USDCNY
USA stocks Vs China stocks. Charting the next leg up.Like for like. Battle between spx & shcomp (USA stocks Vs China stocks). Charting the next leg up. See the GAP. Start of presidential term this time around could give spx (USA) a bigger boost than last time NOT ADVICE. DYOR.
ridethepig | Gold in CNY📌 The struggle to claim 14,631 is notable. When studying the waves I came across similar a similar state of affairs in the earlier flows. The impulsive rally derives from its strong nature, not from itself but from much more the strategic concept of portfolio defence. A defensive move which is clearly crowded and starting to become a deer in the headlights could do with a push down to sharply shake out the late retailers who are attempting to eat off the march forward.
Here we started to load longs on the breakup of the 3rd wave, a momentum gambit which we will discuss further in detail over the coming weeks, sellers outpost was taken exposing the highs. The long-term flows into gold are made from sound fundamentals and common sense ideas, however, it does not mean we cannot attempt to outplay our opponents in the interim... before they get comfy for a good night's rest!
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Chinese Yuan-- From 2008 to nowMeasured move shows the previous wave cycle was corrective, making the next cycle the impulsive wave.
*Since Yuan was introduced since 1955, there no use for making upward measured move target with incomplete data.
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Fundamentals// that China is not willing to keep print money like before+ US printing $$$
REMX Vaneck ETF - Trade WarsGuess who produces most of the world rare earth magnets which we need for electronics like phones, computers and many other things. China China China.
Guess which ETF saw all time high spike in volume yesterday. Not advice. DYOR. #tradewar
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Trade idea USDCNH longUSDCNH follows a medium-term uptrend. On 27/05/2020 the pair reached its previous high at 7.20 and got rejected. In the last two weeks we saw a decline back to the SMA200 at 7.0450 where we today saw a rebound in an environment of risk aversion and dollar strength. This situation gives a long engagements a very good return/risk ratio. Trade parameters are as follows:
- entry at current level of 7.08
- stop loss at 7.01 (conservative approach) or below 7.04 (aggressive approach)
- take profit at 7.195 for 67% of the position
Multi-decade DXYDXY broke through multi-decade wedge pattern briefly in March 2020 ($103), before taping down artificially due to Fed Reserve's strong monetary actions (Repo + Dollar Swap + Unlimited QE).
It would be interesting to see if Fed Reserve can counter the global market forces single handedly. Assuming dollars flow to US companies, it would be hard for it to flow to overseas companies which has >10 Trillion USD denominated debts.
Prediction: 12 Months USD strength
USDCNY - Technical Analysis UpdateBoth Option can be possible - so, for now just stand aside and check how the price will move before going for one of the below options
Option A: Bullish Market before the current sideways trend that could be interpreted as a paused to the bullish market before resuming it again
Option B: Descending Triangle - Bearish Market
Chinese yuan starting to fade.Dragon of the east as they say sparked the eye but fare tale can never be real.
Under the threat of global recession, US-China trade war, awakening young that don't believe in the gov's propaganda anymore, the yuan will eventually evaporate just like the collapse of the soviet union.
This is a short term trade but with very high risk reward & probability, will turn out to be a hell of a trade in a few months time.
USDCNY 18032020Description in the chart!!
Price had regain the 6.96 critical level !! even PBOC cut rate
but US cut deeper rate and pump CREDITS into the system
Last year REPO CRISIS is a trigger but manage to solved with more CREDITS pump back into the system.
ASSETS price will surge with artificial CREDITS over the real value of the assets.
This world is mad with CREDITS.
How long will this system sustain?
Economy growth = productivity growth ( transaction velocity between good , service provided )
the faster the transactions is the better.
but with more CREDITS, productivity is down among the masses.
Lessons here is someone really need to pay for these mess. It doesn't make no sense.
NUMBER GAME to be continue...
Price = (real value + extra much of credits)
ridethepig | CNY Market Commentary 2020.02.16On the technicals there is little to update while the resistance holds, despite the bounce via PBOC intervention on coronavirus risk flows. The only level in play to the topside is 7.0248 as it caps the highs in the current wave. Anything above will unlock a leg towards the next barrier at 7.0733.
The coronavirus short-circuit sadly temporarily disrupted the USD devaluation / reflationary growth theme. I am still holding shorts and active looking for a test of the 6.825x. Anything below that will open the floodgates for the major break:
As usual thanks for keeping support coming with the likes and comments, we'll open up the short-term flow after the Tokyo open in the comments below for those trading live!