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USDCNY

USD/CNY Analysis: Mid-TermTechnical Analysis i) Looks like a Cup and Handle formation for USD/CNY on the weekly chart. Looking to short play the Handle, looking for entries between 6.62 - 6.64 down to 6.48 level. ii) Our most likely scenario (1), will have a pullback from the Handle down to the 6.48 level from their should look for some long positions up to 6.8 level. *ii) However, as any good trader should know is that you shouldn't get married to a position or scenario. Therefore, for this scenario (2) at the 6.48 level instead of immedietaly closing position I advice that we re-assess the markets at that moment in time and see whether we should continue shorting down to 6.3 further easing into shorts on the ride down. **A1 is a copy/shadow of the Bars Pattern taken from A. Fundamental Analysis The strength of the US economy which led the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year in conjunction with Trump's Tariffs has led the Chinese Yuan to fall more than 3% again the dollar in the past two weeks as tensions between the two largest economies has escalated. Chinese companies have amassed huge leveles of US dollar debts in recent years through bond sales in Hong Kong, according to financial data provider Dealoagic. However, it seems that China has been preparing for the upcoming Trade War as Moody's Investors Service stated that 'll but five of the 49 rated South and Southeast Asian high-yield non-financial companies have protection in place against a significant rise in debt levels or borrowing costs, if their local currencies were to depreciate up to 15% against the US dollar. The 49 companies reported a combined US dollar debt total of $45.5 billion as of year-end 2017, or about 55% of their total outstanding debt'. We can expect a further depeciation in the Yuan which shouldn't be to alarming for investors as it could make China's huge export industry more competitive globally as it makes Chinese products cheaper for buyers who pay in dollars. For which Trump has in the past repeatedly accused China of manipulating its currency's value in order to acheive this.
Long
by MoneyBodySoul
UPDATE: Inverse H&S at major supportGold & Silver have been difficult to track of late due to being caught between two raging ego's, both Trump & Xi. Right now we are at very strong support, the 88.6% fib retracement and we also have an inverse H&S on the 30-minute chart. It's difficult to see what drives precious metals in the short term but it almost feels like a beach ball held under water! When these two move it will be big, for now, we need to see more from both the Fed and also we need to see China stop playing with the RMB. This is the highest level of negotiating most of us will ever experience!
TVC:GOLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn266486
15
Potential Rallying; Predictive Model Eyes Bullish Targets #forexFriends, PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes the following BULLISH targets: 1 - TG-Hi = 6.5473 - 04 JUN 2015 and 2 - TG-Hix = 6.6721 - 04 JUN 2015 MARKET GEOMETRY: A break > Point-3 of the background geometry would still see significant resistance to any advance, with a Wolfe Wave / Geo. potentially illustrating the change of a push back. If this occurred at Point-5, then a temporizing decline could occur down along the 1-4 Line. However, based on Geo's Off-Set Rule, a rallying significantly above Point-5 (exacting Point-5') would likely limit such pull back to the level of price Point-4 (circa 6.187). MOMENTAL LINES: Note the dominant lines throughout the chart, which form significant dynamic price-pacing supports and resistance. These are likely to play a role in the nascent geometry, as well as subsequent price advances. OVERALL: Bulls have defended their territory at the 6.187 level. This level may be temporarily violated, but invalidation of above analysis should come if and once price breaks-below/closes below Point-2 of the geometry, circa 6.1100. Best, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Durango, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster Twitter: David Alcindor ----- .
Long
by 4xForecaster
24
USDCNH Bottomed / BTC-Crypto ForecastDear traders, I believe we are at a critical juncture here. Quite possibly, China allowing shorting of their currency might have made the $USDCNH pair bottom last Friday. This is no minor news, and if we study the chart we might be able to understand the relationship between the chinese Yuan and cryptocurrencies. Since 2014, that $USDCNH bottomed, it spent a long time basing, before starting a prolonged bull market. On the way up, said bull market was showing signs of exhaustion, which us, using the Time @ Mode methodology could see and anticipate. ByFebruary 2017, it was clear that bull market had ran its course, at least for a few months. After a period of distribution, with the government making efforts to strengthen the Yuan, severely punishing speculators, forbidding the shorting of the currency, and increasing rates to borrow the Yuan, the market topped and started a strong decline. The signals on chart indicated a fall to at least 6.54509 was warranted, within March/April until November/December 2017. Since this target was exceeded, it is likely that the market is bottoming, or possible bottomed. This doesn’t mean mmedate upside, but possibly a period of basing in the daily or weekly timeframe might ensue. This aligns with the time duration of the decline, ending by November or December of this year. After the end of November, if $USDCNH bases around here, the market will be ready to surge upwards during December! How does this matter for cryptocurrencies? Well, the long term forecast I made available long ago, with the only change being the price target getting extended to 6303.98, had a time duration of 20 months, culminating during November/December 2017. This also happens to correlate nicely with the timing of fundamental events that can derail the bull market in crypto like the Segwit2x hard fork, and interestingly, with a period that already started, that of increased scrutiny and regulatory oversight, which might culminate in the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC, which is what the long term technical charts suggest. Now, what are the risks? There is a chance we already topped, since target #1 in the weekly was hit, and we already saw some pressure from bears lately, but there is a larger probability that the market won’t fall immediately, since I assume that the smart money will need time to liquidate their holdings. How can they buy themselves time now? Maybe approving an ETF for trading in the US, like the Winklevoss, and maybe even the ETH ETF surfaces and is approved...But, I’m pretty sure, that the writings are on the wall, the start of a 20 month bear market in BTC is well overdue, so, I will start taking precautions. First, I will look to accumulate long positions in the $USDCNH pair, as my first move, and econd, I will be ready to hedge or liquidate holdings if needed, to then redistribute to my other accounts in equities and currencies, reducing my crypto position to only 25% of my net worth. If we do start a bear market, shorting might be a profitable endeavor, so, why not? In the short term, I’m following sentiment and technical charts, to determine if my bullish outlook is correct or not. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
39
USDCNY. Filling the Mega Gap. Wave 5One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart. Frankly speaking I thought USDCNY is in a correction before I squeezed the chart, the Monthly chart. The pair had a Mega GAP in 1994. It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap. We could be in the last large wave down to hit the 5.8145 mark. This idea is opposite to the primary market opinion of imminent devaluation of yuan.
Short
by aibek
5
What's the price of tea in China with Bitcoin?When exploring markets for potential (tradeable) inefficiencies sometimes finding none is just as interesting. Americans used to be able to trade the USDCNH on FXCM before they got taken down. The dollar/yuan cross has remained interesting for the last couple years but has been somewhat non available to US forex traders. I wanted to look into the possibility of trading moves using Bitcoin as a proxy. Looking back at a potential setup in 2016 the move in the USDCNY would have yeilded about 1.65% . During the same time BTCUSD and BTCCNY moved 10.9% and 13.3% respectively. From said move until present writing the moves would be USDCNY 3.35%, BTCUSD 78.88%, and BTCCNY 72.52%. So did I find a potential arbitrage trade of 1-2%? Not hardly. The concurrency exchanges that would facilitate this sort of trade operate on expiring futures products that may or may not follow the underlying perfectly. More importantly, holding these products would accrue significant carrying costs. One month could easily eat up that 1%. What the relative efficiency and the small 1-2% inefficiency tells me is that there are already market makers keeping everything closely correlated while staying profitable within that small margin.
B
by norok