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USDD Strablecoin DepeggingAs i warned you in the past article, TRX is about to collapse because of USDD: According to their website, USDD is secured by the over-collateralization of multiple mainstream digital assets (e.g. TRX , BTC , and USDT). The total value of collateralized assets is significantly higher than that of USDD in circulation with the collateral ratio set at 120%. This is the USDD collateral: TRX 10,929,535,279 BTC 14,040.6 = about $313Mil USDT 29,964,253 USDC 39,719,839 so besides TRX , the total amount of other collateral is $383Mil for a stablecoin that has a mk cap of $724Mil. Now let`s say TRX drops to the Covid level of $0.0072, which is not unrealistic in my opinion. Then the TRX collateral of 10,929,535,279 coin will be worth $78,692,654. Assuming that BTC won`t go lower, then still the liquid collateral of USDD will be around $462Mil for a mk cap now of $724Mil, which will result in a huge depegging od the "stablecoin". Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Short
by TopgOptions
TRX Tron the next to fall?I think TRX Tron is the next to fall after BNB Binance Coin. The reason is their stablecoin, USDD. According to their website, USDD is secured by the over-collateralization of multiple mainstream digital assets (e.g. TRX, BTC, and USDT). The total value of collateralized assets is significantly higher than that of USDD in circulation with the collateral ratio set at 120%. This is the USDD collateral: TRX 10,929,535,279 BTC 14,040.6 = about $313Mil USDT 29,964,253 USDC 39,719,839 so besides TRX, the total amount of other collateral is $383Mil for a stablecoin that has a mk cap of $724Mil. Now let`s say TRX drops to the Covid level of $0.0072, which is not unrealistic in my opinion. Then the TRX collateral of 10,929,535,279 coin will be worth $78,692,654. Assuming that BTC won`t go lower, then still the liquid collateral of USDD will be around $462Mil for a mk cap now of $724Mil, which will result in a huge depegging od the "stablecoin". Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Short
by TopgOptions
3
USDC De-peg could Crash DAI, USDD, & FraxI want to share my thoughts on the current situation with stablecoins, specifically USDC, DAI, and FRAX. It is my belief that if USDC were to collapse, DAI and FRAX would follow suit, causing a significant crash in the entire crypto market. Recent developments support this concern. Binance has paused the automatic conversion of USDC to BUSD due to high inflows and the increasing burden of conversion support. Additionally, Circle has burned over $1.6 billion USDC in cash over the past few hours, resulting in a decrease in the total supply of USDC from 43.55 billion to 42.3 billion, down $1.2 billion in just a few hours. Up to 25% of all USDC is uninsured in the SiVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse, only $250,000 is guaranteed recoverable. FDIC assumed receivership of the banks $197 BN remaining assets. 50% of all start ups in the US are said to have some exposure to SiVB, either directly or indirectly. Circle group is facing potential bankruptcy if the run on USDC is not staved off.... Furthermore, only Tether is currently above a dollar, with only five of the 13 stablecoins trading at 99 cents USD. Even FRAX, which is backed by USDC, is currently trading at 0.92 USD. The general concern for all stablecoins may prompt investors to move their funds into BTC/ETH, causing a significant shift in the market. As always, it is important to stay informed and monitor the situation closely. Stay safe and make informed decisions.
GEMINI:USDCUSD
by BIG-BLACK-CRYPTO
XRP Settlement Rumor Prompts Stablecoin Collapse!Cryptocurrency exchange and stablecoin providers Binance (BUSD), Tether (USDT), and Tron (USDD) are experiencing massive liquidity outflows as investors are rushing out of unregulated stablecoins and into Circle's FDIC-backed US Dollar Coin (USDC). This massive liquidity movement was spurred by Charles Hoskinson's recent Youtube livestream recorded on Saturday, December 10th. During the livestream, Hoskinson stated: "I've heard rumors the Ripple case will settle on December 15th." Observably, investors are flooding out of unregulated stablecoins in anticipation of Ripple to LOSE its lawsuit vs. the SEC. Significant volatility is due ahead. USDT, BUSD, and USDD are currently losing their Dollar pegs as investors believe Ripple will 'lose' its SEC lawsuit. How will this affect digital asset investors? With the Ripple lawsuit, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission will declare all digital assets (decentralized and centralized) to be registrable securities . Global digital asset regulation will be enforced by international, central, and corporate banks through the ISO20022 instant-settlement messaging standard. To be legal by United States law, digital assets must comply with ISO20022 global banking settlement networks. This technological power shift MAY BEGIN THIS THURSDAY (DECEMBER 15TH), according to the hints stated by Hoskinson. BITFREEDOM RESEARCH BELIEVES RIPPLE WILL 'LOSE' THE SEC LAWSUIT. Ripple will be forced to move its operations outside the US. Cryptocurrency investors will collectively perceive the settlement as unfavorable. After the Ripple case decision (due THIS THURSDAY or within six months), all distributed ledger networks and digital assets will be forced to comply with United States regulations or leave the country. IF nothing happens on Thursday, expect the SEC vs. Ripple settlement announcement to occur sometime before March or June 2023. The SEC will likely identify XRP as a security over the next six months. Investors must prepare for the RIPPLE effect due to sweep through markets as regulators, institutions, and banks overtake the world's digital asset market.
Short
by Bitfreedom_Research
1
TRX Year-Long Triangle Concluding (Elliott Wave/Neowave)TRX has been trading in a relatively tight range since last year, that range is coming to a point now and it seems like, based on EW structure, that this triangle should break up within the next few weeks. If it doesn't break up in the next few weeks then we'll probably see it continue to consolidate into the tip of the triangle until the end of the year, before breaking up. If this is the end of a pattern which began in 2018, as shown on my chart, we should see a explosive and near vertical move out of this range. Typically, when volatility reaches a very low point, it is often followed by a massive increase in volatility. This combined with USDD potentially burning a huge amount of the supply of TRX in the future could lead to prices in the double or even triple digits over the next year.
KRAKEN:TRXUSDLong
by Intuit
5
[b][/b]TRXUSDT : ARE WE STILL GOING DOWN ?[b][/b]On the 15th of June , TRXUSDT exhibited a climatic price action which has been followed by an increasing price with low volume. For clarity : Climatic price action ( buy climax or sell climax) is a period in the market when the dominant trend usually seems to be over powered . This is shown by sudden volume spike with low effect . This occurs because the dominant trend exited their positions ( in this case sellers became buyers ) hence taking the opposite side of their initial position. Since trading is a zero sum activity, these sell orders automatically become buy orders in order to exit the position aiding the short term rallies that follow climatic action seen as buys . This at times is called bull traps . Support and resistance alternation is a common term and knowledge in technical analysis . With the 61.8% Fibonacci level coinciding with the support turned resistance zone around 0.075 price level, this is a great confluence for a sell continuation on TRXUSDT. In addition, we have a bearish flag pattern also calling for sells. With these, I do be on the lookout for a sell opportunity around the highlighted resistance zone which should be confirmed by any of the reversal candlestick patterns , indicator divergence or any of the reversal signals . Feel free to share your thoughts in the comment section
by Gracie24
USDD TRONX stable | Decentralised coin USD, possible?Hello all, First of all, neither I am a crypto expert nor a fundamental researcher, my analysis is based on technical charts and price actions. Secondly, the USDD Tronx slips its peg to USD $$$ for a week, which means that the price action is now in motion. ( Newtons 1st rule, when an object is in motion, it will continue in motion ... !!!) Thirdly, so far the price actions show the weak signal of reversal + monthly candle in BTC will close soon in the next 10 days. My probability is that we might see some further downside of USDD as well as TRONX price (70% it will happen), however, is it as damaged as Moon 1 or 2? Please leave your comment below. Structure: PA must close as soon as possible during this month of June above the R2 and R1 with at least a "3D candle" green body above the R2 line in order to "short squeeze". If not, well Less is more, the chart would tell you all that you might see in the next couple of days. Cheers and please consider staying on the safe side. Thank you for your sharing and comments.
Short
by JokerVN30
Best Case Scenario: TRX is going to $250In the realistic possibility that a vast majority of TRX is burnt in the next year, we could see a hyper deflationary spiral causing TRX to increase 35x-100x in market cap, and 3000x in price. Based on the average burn rate of 284 million TRX per day since USDD launched, it's possible that 99% of the circulating supply of TRX is removed from circulation over the next year or so. This means there could be only 1 billion TRX in circulation in the near future, and a price of $250 per TRX is realistic in that scenario because it would be a market cap of only $250 billion, still significantly smaller than what Bitcoin is today and roughly equal to Ethereum's current market cap. It should also be noted that BTC and ETH are expected to increase over this period of time as well to several trillion market cap each. There are 32 billion TRX staked and the TRON DAO holds about 28 billion TRX , that leaves less than 45 billion TRX currently "circulating," though at the right price many people will begin unstaking and selling. These sales will likely end up getting burnt by USDD redemptions or network fees, ultimately moving the supply that is available for sale closer to 0. Even if the available supply remains around 10 billion TRX (minus TRON DAO coins which will likely be burnt or remain off the market during this time) a $250 price and $2.5 trillion market cap is still possible and would be much smaller than BTC would be at that point, assuming Bitcoin likely goes to at least $200k-$1m If the giga bull scenario doesn't happen a move to $10 is still very likely as the supply should remain hyper deflationary to keep up with the demand for USDD for the foreseeable future. A move to $10 at 10 billion supply would be only $100 billion market cap which is less than half of what ETH is today, and again ETH could also be expected to rise to $10-20k over the same period making it's market cap well into the trillions. Eventually demand for USDD will begin to reverse when collateralization becomes riskier and interest rates are cut, leading to people redeeming USDD for TRX , and likely causing a massive correction in TRX . possibly larger than the -97% correction we saw after the 2018 peak, and in a worst case scenario TRX could end up in a death spiral like LUNA if the USDD peg is broken and redemptions are not paused soon enough. I think that the TRON DAO Reserve will learn from LUNA's mistakes, and that USDD will ultimately have much better collateralization, and in the risk of a death spiral redemptions for TRX will be paused before the supply of TRX becomes too large like what happened with LUNA. The death spiral may actually be avoided by simply cutting the APR when collateralization becomes too low, which LUNA and UST never did and that led to UST being undercollateralized. By cutting the APR they also cut the demand which can lead to a more orderly exit from USDD, rather than everyone rushing for the exit at the same time like with UST . As people exit USDD in a more orderly fashion the collateralization levels become greater and the risk of a death spiral decreases to near 0. The catch is if USDD is collateralized by risky assets like BTC or TRX , then there is systemic risk if those assets suddenly crash and now the reserve dollar value has rapidly declined to less than the total issuance of USDD. For now there are enough stablecoins to back USDD at greater than 1:1 ratio so there is virtually no risk of a death spiral, but even an orderly exit from USDD will cause downward pressure on TRX prices. Even without a death spiral a massive correction is likely after a move to triple digits, especially when the TRON DAO Reserve is forced to eventually cut USDD rates, which will put downward pressure on TRX as capital begins to leave USDD and the supply of TRX may actually begin to increase. The key is for the TDR to avoid a hyperinflationary spiral by taking on too much debt, much like when a central bank takes on too much debt and their currency begins to hyperinflate to pay for this debt. While the exact price may not be clear at this point, what is clear is that TRX's supply has entered into a hyper deflationary spiral and if it keeps up at the rate it is going a vast majority of TRX will be burnt in a year, and the price of TRX is going to have to go much higher to meet the demand for USDD issuance and 30% APR that is offered by USDD staking. Even if the market cap remains the same the price could still increase by 10-100x over the next year or two because the supply of TRX is rapidly declining and that trend is likely to continue as long as USDD APR remains high and the TRON DAO Reserve remains overcollateralized. I would watch for resistance around psychological levels because that is likely where the most sell liquidity will be found to meet the demand of USDD redemptions, around $1 (61.8 extension), $10 (1.0 extension), $100, and finally $250 (161.8 extension of wave-E )
KRAKEN:TRXUSDLong
by Intuit
26
📊Are TRX and USDD next SCAM coins? $3B to save the peg!Should you have to short the TRON with x20 leverage? In this idea i explain you all pros and cons for traders in the current situation. 📊USDD is the alghoritmical stablecoin that start to lost it`s peg with USD. This is very similar to the case of UST that lost it`s peg a month ago. Of course you remember the Luna and Luna 2.0 that lost almost all capitalization because of UST peg. 🔶Will it happen to TRX? Now CEO of the Tron (TRX) announce additional money flow to protect the USDD(Tron stablecoin) to dave it`s peg to USD (1:1). There is about $3 billion in reserves right now to save Stablecoin and Tron project but peg is continuing to fall. 🔶Should i sell or buy TRX? Friends, check this idea that was published at May 9. When TRX pumped i tell that is not the best time to buy it. After the second liquidity collection of the value area it fell for -46%(!). At the current situation the value area of $0.3-0.33 could become the huge support for the price and revesal point. The value area of $0,59-0,66 is the resistance for the price. And if the TRX return to this area it will be hard to break it. As you can see at the volume indicator the bars are not even renew it`s higs or previous highs. 🔶 No one knows what happend to price but technical analysis in combination with volume indicator could help you to open a trade and understand the nest price movements. ✅Now after -46% DUMP i don`t reccomend you to gamble. Better to save the money to the possible bullish trend in 1-2 year or use small part of your depo to stufy trading this situations. Actually, i don`t recommend you to trade such dumps without using trading strategy as it was with lunatics at Luna 1.0 dump. They almost destroyed. Additionally, today is the a day of uncertainty. The FED meeting can dump the stock and crypto markets after rate hikes to 0,75%! 🏁Traders, write your thoughts about current situation with Tron. Will the USDD lost it`s peg and we need to open a short or it skyrocket to the moon in 2-3 months? 💻Friends, press the "like"👍 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU. P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy. Always do your analysis before making a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
6
DXY/ USDJPY - FED LOCKHART & KASHKARI SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSShort USD positioning: Long GBPUSD and short USDJPY - Sterling re-balancing higher (attached), no fed hike likely thus 20% priced in needs to be faded out in USD downside. Further, my bets are any real BOJ action doesnt happen (e.g. depo/ lsp cut or QE) - All JPY STIR markets are infact pricing hikes, there isnt any level of cuts priced (Libor, Tibor, Euroyen). US election broad USD risk and the USD is in a no win situation for Brainards speech (e.g. hawkish and Yen risk-off demand weighs on $yen - dovish and USD rate hike hopes priced at 20% deprice USD lower) thus USDJPY is the best lower-risk expression for this view pre/post speech. I continue to keep short SPX too. DXY imo will move towards 92. Fed Lockhart Highlights: Fed's Lockhart: Data Supports 'Serious' Rate Rise Discussion At FOMC Lockhart: Won't Say When He Favors Next Increase in Fed Target Rate Lockhart: Economy's Performance Suggest Fed Will Meet Goals in Medium Term Lockhart: Economy Expanding At 'Moderate' Pace, 2016 GDP Likely 2% Lockhart: Job Growth Continuing, Slowdown in Pace of New Hires Not Surprising Lockhart: Still Expects Inflation to Rise, But Recent Progress Has Stalled Lockhart: Second-Half U.S. Growth Likely to Pick Up From First Half Lockhart: Job Market Still Moving Toward Full Employment Lockhart: Economy 'Chugging Along, Not Stalling Out' Lockhart: Inflation Expectations Stable, Well Anchored Lockhart: Inflation Should Rise When Full Employment Met Fed's Lockhart: No Urgency to Raise Rates Right Now Lockhart: Financial Stability Risks Don't Require Rate Rise Lockhart: Fed Not Being Led Around By Markets Lockhart: Isn't Worried Market Rate View Out of Whack With Fed Officials Lockhart: Market View Won't Stop Fed From Acting on Rates Lockhart: Financial System Much More Resilient to Shocks Lockhart: 'Time Will Tell' If Fed to Further Mark Down Long Run Fed Rate Lockhart: Not 'Embarrassed' By Fed Dot Plots Lockhart: Won't Comment on Trump Criticism of Fed Fed Kashkari Highlights: Fed's Kashkari Highlights Causes for Tepid Post-Crisis Economic Growth in Paper Kashkari Explores Solutions Like Increased Government Spending, Immigration Reform Fed's Kashkari Highlights Causes for Tepid Post-Crisis Economic Growth Fed's Kashkari: No 'Huge Urgency' to 'Do Anything'
TVC:DXYShort
by QuantumLogicTrading