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USDEUR

Global USD valueStrength of USD versus currencies of EU, Japan, China, India, Russia, Mexico, Brasil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Korea. There had been a cosmic demand for dollar but as COVID hit USA from April 6 we saw a breakdown. Now we are at major support, on the monthly balance point, from which a push up is likely but not guaranteed. The area between CAMS1 and CAMR1 is regarded as neutral market. A break above those levels will establish a bear or bull market. Demark trendline needs to connect 2 corresponding TD N points. While here we see disproportion (bottom TD point is only N1) so I dont give much credence to that trendline. If both USD and EUR will keep falling we will see a range on EURUSD. The question is which one will fall faster. But now we see a pivot stop on USD fall but EUR is likely to keep falling on Monday as it is below April value zone. Global EURO value index (see my previous post) started to exhibit great daily instability since early March (each days candle has long wigs either way). I excluded CAD as its economy is much intercorporated with the US one and GBP, CHF being a EURO clones. But still inclusion of those doesnt change the picture much.
by ICFX
3
Post-breakout pullback into FIB zoneI have been taking a look into dollar index and a strong push up is very likely next 2 weeks, considering all the conditions of what happened: 1. Breakout of descending daily supply trendline (breakout candle - strong bullish, second post breakout candle strong bullish) 2. Trendline breakout retested (important factor: price stayed above the trendline after the retest - uptrending confirmed) 3. Classic pullback into Fib zone (50-61) and retest of last month roof R4 (March breakout level). 4. Demark breakout slingshot projection gives target near April R4 confirming the breakout and April camarilla levels. Also, April resistance CAMR3 coincides with 78 fib level. In the Fib zone we do have untested missed monthly pivot - the question is if price is gonna test it? But then again - missed pivots mark the starts of strong trends. At any case, push back under the trendline does not make much sense.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICFX
EURUSDGood morning. Breaking down my charts on a weekend as always, scoping out my entries for the week ahead. I am documenting a challenge for people new to trading which will be on youtube (£200-£1000) in 4 weeks. Eight days in and we are at the £750 mark!. If i get good reviews and response I will do a video of how I enter my trades. Please check out my educational idea on my profile to see one of the best ways small account holders can massively grow their accounts within minimum risk and low leveraging. This looks like a nice set up for a short entry. I am in favor of 1.5000 but not yet! lets see the chart complete itself and get that breakout to the upside. With all this noise I do see a short set up with a very nice r/r. I will take trades like these all day long. I never see the point in entering a trade with a 1:1 r/r. You can lose trades like these over and over and with only risking 1-4% of your account the losses won't make much of an impact where as the wins can massively grow your account because the r/r is good!. When you get your zones plotted correctly too it highly increases your chance of these small stop losses from even being triggered. Just take a look at all my jpy trades this week, they all had minuscule stop losses but big take profit zones which were all hit!. Hope you all are keeping healthy and safe during these times x
Short
by XHRISTIE
1
USD index bearishThis is just an update to a previous post that pointed to strong bearish divergence in the DXY, Target was 83 - raised to 85 but possibly lower, Competitive devaluation of the USD a side-effect of Fed over-reaction to a supply side disruption that lower interest rates simply cannot help. Rates now significantly negative in real terms, with a possibility of soon going negative in nominal terms as well. Demand for what is perceived to be riskier and riskier treasuries will be lower domestically and from overseas. At some point treasuries will become under subscribed and then we will be in a similar situation as inter-war German Weimar Republic. Take the reduction in relative purchasing power or buy gold and silver.
TVC:DXYShort
by flyinkiwi10
The U.S. Dollar Bullish Against The Euro | Rising ChannelToday we are looking at the U.S. Dollar / Euro (USDEUR), a chart that was going full bearish just had a strong reversal... let's take a look! Prices peaked in mid-Feb. for USDEUR and three strongly bearish candles followed. Last week's candle saw a long-wick and a strong bounce as soon as MA200 was tested. Now, USDEUR is trading above all major resistance in the form of E/MAs (EMA10, EMA50, EMA100, and MA200). These levels will now work as support. The RSI and MACD are both strong and bullish, opening the door for additional growth. What happens next? If USDEUR can stay and close weekly above 0.9180, we are likely to see additional growth. But if instead prices move lower and close below 0.9170, we can expect a retrace. Right now USDEUR is looking bullish. All the important support and resistance levels are clearly marked on the chart. You can zoom out for more. Thanks a lot for reading. This is not financial advice. Namaste.
by AlanSantana
4
EURUSD, Life is Great :)A follow up on my previous analysis. Hope you have noticed, not doing any real TA here, because as mentioned in the previous analysis, i don't see the real sense of it. Anyway, at the moment, there are 2 reasons to why i think we oculd have a temp high. First of all, as i have shown in the chart, big resistance zone on the right, that one wont just break (i think). Posted a message in my public channel half hour ago: For the ones who took on the EURUSD hedge, pumped 600 pips already, chance it might make a correction now, also because i think indices might go up which causes eurusd to drop a bit. But simply holding is good as well, its more for the active trader The second reason is explained already, at the moment the Dow is continuing it's pump. This doesnt change anything for my long term view though. Maybe for the ones who did long, but not as a hedge, would be very smart to take a good chunk off here. For the ones who hedged, no bad play here IMO. i see it's down 30 pips already, sorry about that, did my best to write this, but still very good :) Previous analysis:
by botje11
2
EURUSD, Long term Dollar shortEarlier today i posted in my public channel that i am going to build up a long term position on the EURUSD (so shorting the USD). Past weeks it dropped quite a bit, so everyone holding Bitcoins, has made a 3/4% bonus when living in Europe. I had just hedged the Bitcoins i have, so locking in that extra bonus profit :). This is of course assuming the BTCUSD is the main Bitcoin price the world is watching. Meaning, that if Bitcoin is at lets say $10.000, and euro/usd drops 2%, that BTCUSD doesn't react on that price change in the Dollar. So if BTCUSD is at 10.000 and BTCEUR is at 9000, that when EURUSD drops 4%, that BTCUSD stays at 10.000, but BTCEUR does react on this currency change and moves up to 9360. Besides this bonus strategy, i believe the Dollar might dump coming years. There is potential the high is here at the moment. Think past month, a lot of money went to the US because of negative bonds in Europe while the US still pays intrest. It sucks to pay money over your savings. This effect will stop at some point, which could be now, could also continue much longer, wish i knew. Like Europe is not able to lower intrest anymore (unless they want to trigger a civil war or something (look at the Paris protest past half year or so on their pensions). But the US still has some room, so when they start to do that (hope they don't, would be very dumb long term IMO), foreign investors will prob move back to their own currency. There are many more fundamental reasons, but a bit too much to talk about it here. Now, when looking at the chart, on the left there is a potential low set, since that trend line has showed temporarily support for many times past 2 years. On the right, it looks like a curved shape, with this last move up being like a final shake out move. So IMO, there is a lot of potential here. Already up 30/40 pips since my update :). But meaningless of course, because as mentioned in that same update, this is very likely going to be a strategy i will hold for many years. Today's positions was to hedge my bitcoins and coming period i will increase it and have a speculating/investing position as well. So this is not a trade with a stop loss. Not saying everyone who has Bitcoins in Euro land should hedge now, because my timing could be completely off. But for the ones who are not aware of this and have a decent amount in Bitcoin, at least think about it. Extreme situation/example: BTCUSD goes from 10.000 (btceur 9.000) to 12.000 coming 2 years. In they meantime EURUSD rallies like we did 10/14 years ago (30+ % rally). For BTCEUR it would mean a 20% increase for Bitcoin but a 30% loss on the EURUSD. So would mean you would even loose money if this extreme would happen. Of course the same goes for other assets in a similar situation, so also for people holding stocks in USD but living for example in Europe. Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :) Previous analysis: (click the play button, for the ones who remember, a year ago i did a few counter TA's on EURUSD. I almost NOT using any TA, but was simply looking at TradingView page of EURUSD. If most would say long, because a big resistance had broken, i would make a TA on a bull trap move and vice versa. As crazy as it sounds, it worked several times in a row :). Theory behind this is, like most assets, people are getting trapped by the whales, why TA sucks so many times).
by botje11
3
EURUSD, Biggest pump of past 2 years :) 5% Bitcoin Bonus :)Wow, it'going MUCH better than i could even dream off :). USD getting dumped big time past 2 weeks. I have not really checked others, but my guess is, most prob saw a bearish play after the first bounce because it broke support 2 weeks ago around 1.10. So using 1.10 as a sell point. Well usually this works of course, but at the moment TA is a bit useless on lower time frames. At least useless when using the wrong direction/trend as your basis. The Fundamentals are ruling at the moment, which was my main reason for taking on this trade and using TA to find a nice entry point which looked pretty basic, especially in hindsight :). We don't get these easy trades a lot, but they do present them selves if we are patient enough to wait for them and NOT trying to find them. Of course you need to find them, but i mean not looking for difficult signs in a chart and then thinking this is it. It should actually be that when you open the chart, it should be almost clear withing seconds. Then you try to find some extra signs and confirmations. About the fundamentals, main reason why the USD has held up past year or so, is because the US intrest rate was much higher than most other countries. Where in Europe people need to pay intrest over their savings, in the US you would still get payed. Now with the Corona Virus, there was a good chance this would have come to an end, knowing Trump would of course try to force the FED to lower their intrest rate. Experienced people know this and get ahead of this. Now because the FED did a surprise rate cut earlier this week ( so sooner than expected), the rally of the EUR/USD accelerated even. With the US debt and all other factors, i just think that things look pretty bad for the USD. The US stock market outperformed the rest of the world extremely past half year, probably because most people assumed/knew that Trump would do everything he can to pump the market so he can continue to Tweet on a daily basis about how great he is and how great the US economy is. With the main goal of course, to be reelected again. Now because of the Corona virus, things have completely changed now. It's something that nobody thought about of course and nobody can stop. As long as this continues, world economies will get hit, prob very hard even. So as foreign investors jumped in the US stock market pas year, being at extreme highs, and now with the current problems, think it makes sense that many of these foreign investors will sell their US investments and move back to their own currency. So i believe that this factor and (maybe the most important one) the (expected) FED intrest rate cut, are fueling the dump on the USD. I personally believe this can continue for a very long time, so my position, as clearly mentioned, is long term, maybe even for many years. When i gave this trade week or 2 ago, i assumed the low might be set (because of TA), with this big pump on EUR/USD, very big chance that the low is confirmed now. I expected to see some resistance around the 1.120, was a very big resisance zone, but it prob also confirms that TA has less value and FA is ruling at the moment. A correction or some consolidation would make most sense for the coming days, but honestly, these are exceptional days so i really think that anything can happen. A big dump for EUR/USD is very unlikely, but simply continuing to pump still could happen instead of some sideways action. For the ones who did not see my previous analysis, i suggest to read it. Suggested for Bitcoin investors with serious amounts to at least think about hedging their $ value, because we really got an amazing price at that point. It's up almost 5% now, so on each 100K you would have in Bitcoins, when hedging as i suggested, has earned you around 5K on your total balance. Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)| Previous analysis:
by botje11
11
EUR & USD will meet again at lastYes. By next year the USD will dominate the EUR. There will be ups and downs for another year or so between them, but ultimately EUR will go back to it's 2001 low of 0.89, by 2025 (as low as 0.81). This one was very interesting for me to analyze. With heavy-weight currencies you have to go way back in order to make a precise analysis. So I used my thinkorswim account to measure it (since they have the longest available backward data) all the way back to 1979 with yearly-candles . I drew up the connections and transferred them here. Both trajectory-lines are extremely precise (took half an hour to get them right), so it'll be interesting to see once it reaches 1.00, if it will bust the trend line further below 1.00 or remain range bound. As of the downward channel: it's busted and therefor a confirmed short . Ill be happy to provide a close-up on this if there's interest. (lines have been averaged with step-line on linear)
Short
by UnknownUnicorn5323213
THE CASE FOR TRUMPIt’s time to talk about Trump, and why I think he’s done a good job at being a president so far. First of all, he is not your usual politician. This is good on two fronts simultaneously. Firstly, he does not have to return favors and kiss asses to the circle of insiders, which one inevitably amasses on one’s way up to the presidency, when doing it a conventional career politician way. And also, because he self funded his campaign, so there was no need to cater to the special interests. Secondly, he does not really care about reelection. And here is why. The guy is 73 years old, he is famous all over the world and he is rich beyond one’s imagining. He had everything life has to offer, so the presidency bid might have started as an epic «why not» thing. The presidency is the icing on the cake for him. He went for it because he could, because he wanted, and also I suspect, being a high profile businessman, he saw the rot that was eating away on the heart of America and I believe he wanted to have something done about it. And he got elected. The icing on the cake was made. So he won already. Even if he goes tomorrow, he’s already won. He will be remembered. That allows him not to worry much about momentary moods of the crowd, press coverage and the rest. So we’ve got a president who can put forward a proper grand vision, whereas the latest presidents were mainly doing minor patchwork instead, when not wrecking the economy of bombing deserts. He might pretend he cares, but that is part of the game if being Trump and his presidency. And on the reelection note: yes, I believe he will be reelected no matter who gets to stand against him. On the solid results: No new wars had been started.No money wasted, no deserts bombed. He attempted to withdraw from Syria and Afghanistan, which is great, given that the US should not have been there in the first place. Pressured enemies diplomatically and finically(Iran, North Korea, Russia, Venezuela) not a single shot fired. A massive win! The economy is great. It is true, Trump inherited a somewhat okay economy, yet, the usual economic cycle was supposed to have ended by the time he became president. We were sliding into the recession. Just look at the SNP500. We were an inch away from the abyss. Yet, with tax cuts, regulations slashed and the general spirits reinvigorated, the market almost doubled in 3 years that Trump is a president. And you can’t take that away from him. Basically, what else do you want? That is already 6 out of 10. With his predecessors scoring 3/10 at best. Good on the domestic policy. Vocally protects 1st and 2nd amendments. Got a fellow conservative into the Supreme Court. The guy has massively shifted the whole political and cultural narratives and the way we see and do things already. He had the balls to shake the rotten house of NATO and make Europe pay its fair share. He had the balls to start a trade feud with China, taking then on the issues that were supposed to be settled 20 years ago. Intellectual property theft, unfair treatment of the western companies, closing its market randomly and manipulating currency. Trump singlehandedly reshaped how the world trades with America. USMCA is coming, Europe will give way. China is holding, but, arguably to its detriment. The need for reining China in was acutely felt long before Trump. Yet, everyone was kicking the can down the road, thinking, not this year. Not in my presidency. The longer you hold the dog, the angrier it gets. He was the only one who let the dog go, and faced the consequences. His unique style of managing relations with the Fed had somewhat taken me aback, at first, yet we need to be wary of the power that we’ve endowed into this closed, unelected, and immensely powerful institution. So agin, challenging status quo, not bad. So here is my brief take on Trump. And, just to make it clear, I am not a Trump fan. I am an independent thinker and when analyzing Trump, I am not comparing him to some abstract theoretical ideal we might have had, but to the real alternatives, the ones we’ve got and the one's we had before. Comment, like, subscribe!
AMEX:SPYLong
by CassidyWaterhouS
18
EURUSD Global CyclesI haven’t published forex analysis for a long time. Last week I was at a forex conference in Dubai. And I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of the people at this conference. That's why I want to look globally on the forex market. Euro / Dollar (EURUSD) most popular pair I showed large main cycles of 16 years. Methodology: 1. Visually determine the full cycle (movement from minimum to minimum or from maximum to maximum) 2. We repeatedly confirm cyclicality over an accessible historical interval 3. We find the end and the beginning of a new cycle in current quotes and “continue” its construction in the future If the cycle operates in the "past" - this is a guarantee of maintaining fluctuations with approximately the same period in the future - William Delbert Gann If you know what part of the cycle you are in, you will always know when to buy and when to sell. William Delbert Gann For example, you know that this is the end of a 16-year cycle, then you will only buy, not sell. Each whole consists of small parts. A large 16 year cycle can also be broken down into smaller components. Divide the 16 year cycle in half, we get 8 year cycle. Divide the 8 year cycle again into 2 parts, we get 4 summer cycles. Making a forecast for the EURUSD currency pair based on 16, 8, 4-year cycles, we can conclude that EURUSD has found some bottom, and this may be the beginning to continue the upward movement. Cycles is not a trading system, it is just very good information for the trader to help him understand where the financial instrument is now, what we can potentially expect. Each cycle will give one or another reaction, but this is NOT always exactly as we expect, the cycle can mark its end with inversion - a completely inverse reaction compared to history. It is just necessary, according to the cycles, to pay more attention to the market, to wait for the continuation, according to the cycles in history, but also to be prepared that the market will respond to the cycle, but not what we expected. We do not control the market and do not create any illusions on this score. We just observe it, what happened in history and what is happening now, and in accordance with what we see, we make trading decisions. I am pleased to read your opinion about the global market vision in the comments. Also if you read it to the end do not forget to like it is very important to me Best regards EXCAVO
by EXCAVO
44