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USDINR

USDINR The 2-year Rising Wedge is holding.The USDINR pair continues to respect the Rising Wedge that we mentioned more than 2 months ago (July 24, see chart below), giving us both excellent buy and sell signals: This 2-year Rising Wedge pattern is approaching its top (Higher Highs trend-line) once more so we're preparing for a sell signal again. The confirmation to sell within this pattern is given when the 1W RSI breaks above its MA line (yellow trend-line). Our Target is 83.7500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Can Inflation Shift the Fed’s Rate Path? This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus. The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a 25-bps rate cut climbed to 73%, while expectations for a 50-bps cut dropped to 27%. Attention now turns to inflation, with consumer prices expected to fall to 2.6%—the lowest since March 2021—and producer prices anticipated to rise 0.2% month-over-month. Key USD pairs to watch this week include EUR/USD, with the ECB's upcoming interest rate decision in focus. Additionally, pairs impacted by inflation data releases from Mexico, Brazil, Russia, and India could see significant movement.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDINR Bullish break-out signalThe USDINR pair broke this week above Resistance 1 (83.700), the long lasting level since the week of March 18 and following a strong rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the break-out should technically lead higher. The long-term pattern remains a Rising Wedge and we expect at least a symmetrical +1.29% Bullish Leg to price the Higher High, similar to the March High. Our Target is 84.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
India's inflation data in focus as Modi meets Putin As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engages with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the focus back home will shift to the latest inflation figures. India has faced significant pressure from Western nations to distance itself from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. However, New Delhi has maintained its ties with Moscow. A key factor in this enduring relationship is energy cooperation, which has played a pivotal role in stabilizing fuel prices and, consequently, inflation in India. In May 2024, India's annual consumer inflation rate eased to 4.75%, down slightly from 4.83% in April. Projections for the upcoming data suggest a minor decrease to 4.70%. However, Reuters reports indicate a different trend. According to a poll of 54 economists, inflation in India likely edged up in June, breaking a five-month streak of declines. This increase is attributed to a surge in vegetable prices, driven by extreme weather conditions damaging crops. The poll forecasts inflation rising to 4.80% year-on-year in June, up from 4.75% in May. Food prices, which constitute around half of the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, are a significant factor in this anticipated rise. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. The USD/INR potentially maintains its bullish bias, staying above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Upside targets include 83.65, the upper boundary of its trading range. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at 83.40 serves as an initial support level for the pair.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDINR Bearish unless it breaks that Resistance.The USDINR pair has been trading within a long-term Rising Wedge pattern since the November 11 2022 Low. The 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting all the way and in fact has made contact with the price and held on 3 occasions, with the most recent being on June 03. We are currently bearish as the price remains within the Rising Wedge, targeting its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) at 83.2150. If however the pair manages to close a 1D candle above Resistance 1 (83.7000), we will take the small loss and open a buy, targeting the Higher Highs at 84.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
Trials and Elections: 3 Market-adjacent events to watch Trump and Hunter Biden Trials Former U.S. President Donald Trump was convicted last week on all counts of falsifying business records. Trump faces sentencing in one month’s time on July 11. Each of the 34 felony counts could result in up to four years in prison, although first-time offenders (or ex-presidents) like Trump are rarely incarcerated. Meanwhile, a jury was sworn in on Monday for a (show?) trial of Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, on gun charges. Mexican Election The Mexican peso continues to fall sharply towards 18.0 per USD, its lowest since October 2023, following results indicating a supermajority win for the Moderna party and its allies in Congress. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Moderna party candidate, won the presidential election by a significant margin. As noted in Reuters, "The peso is underperforming amid growing concerns that the governing coalition's supermajority in the lower house might lead to the implementation of non-market-friendly policies,". Indian Election The Indian rupee plunged past 83.5 per USD, nearing its record-low of 83.7 from April. This movement erased the sharp rally triggered by early vote tallies, as updated counts indicated that incumbent PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to secure a much narrower victory than anticipated. Amidst the election turmoil in the world's largest democracy, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision is also expected this week. In April 2024, the RBI maintained its benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Indian Rupee Faces Headwinds But May Outperform in BondsThe Indian rupee is currently facing pressure due to a combination of factors: * **Weakening Chinese Yuan:** The decline in the Chinese yuan, a key regional currency, is putting downward pressure on the rupee. * **Potential Portfolio Outflows:** Upcoming elections in India are raising concerns about political stability, which could lead foreign investors to withdraw their money from the Indian stock market, further weakening the rupee. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely intervening to support the rupee, but the currency remains near its all-time low. **Opposition Viewpoint** Congress candidate Anand Sharma blames the current government's policies for the rupee's depreciation and the wider economic slowdown. **Brighter Spots for Rupee Bonds** Despite the short-term challenges, there are positive signs for rupee-denominated bonds: * **Stronger Macroeconomic Fundamentals:** India's improving economic fundamentals could make rupee bonds more attractive to foreign investors. * **Market Infrastructure Improvements:** Advancements in India's financial markets are making it easier for foreign investors to enter and exit the bond market. * **Central Bank Reserves:** The RBI's healthy foreign exchange reserves provide a buffer against external shocks. * **Inclusion in Global Indices:** The upcoming inclusion of Indian bonds in global indices like JP Morgan and Bloomberg is expected to attract significant foreign inflows. **Potential Outperformance vs. US Bonds** Analysts believe rupee bonds could outperform US bonds due to: * **Potentially Lower Rupee Yields:** Rupee bond yields might fall as US rates decline, making them more attractive to investors seeking higher returns. **Challenges Remain** The main risk to this optimistic outlook is a potential rise in global oil prices due to geopolitical tensions. **Overall** The Indian rupee is facing near-term headwinds, but the long-term outlook for rupee-denominated bonds appears promising. Stronger economic fundamentals, improved market infrastructure, and inclusion in global indices could attract foreign investments and lead to outperformance compared to US bonds. USD/INR Long (Buy) Enter At: 83.6198 T.P_1: 83.8357 T.P_2: 84.2813 T.P_3: 84.8017 T.P_4: 85.4276 T.P_5: 85.7789 T.P_6: 86.1611 T.P_7: 86.4859 T.P_8: 86.8564 T.P_9: 87.5423 T.P_10: 87.9545 T.P_11: 88.6104 T.P_12: 89.0118 T.P_13: 89.4886 T.P_14: 89.8233 T.P_15: 90.6218 T.P_16: 91.3954 S.L: 80.4441
Long
by signalmastermind
USDINR Sell opportunity to the 1D MA50The USDINR pair made a direct hit on our 82.700 Target, which we set on our last analysis (January 10, see chart below): Right now we see the price pulling back within a Channel Down. This is a standard pattern within the long-term Rising Wedge pattern, which as you see out of 7 Bearish Legs all broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and only 1 managed to make just a hit-and-rebound. As a result we are going for a moderate sell Target at 83.100 and then we will reverse to buying, targeting Resistance 1 at 83.700. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USD/INR sale nowHi everyone! USD/INR pair long was in one range, thereby a narisova a triangle. Now the price drew already 2/3 triangles. Therefore it is possible to expect it breakdown in the nearest future. I expect breakdown of a triangle down. Now the price is close to the upper bound of a triangle therefore the entrance to the transaction is safe. Stop loss can be delivered above a triangle, that is on breakdown up. I consider that the price as a result all the same will achieve the designated objectives (even at breakdown up and leaving up to 88). Technical indicators nap week and monthly schedules showed a turn long ago. So, I sold at the current price 82.53 with the purposes: TP1 = 80.91 TP2 = 79.05 Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
Short
by Yuriy_Kuznetsov
2
USDINR Still bearish but we move our target a little higher.This is an update to our November 27 2023 idea on the USDINR pair where we issued a sell signal exactly at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1 year Rising Wedge pattern: Our 82.600 Target hasn't yet been hit but due to the slower than expected decline, we have to modify our target and move it a little higher to 82.700, which marks a projected contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
Decoding USDINR with Elliott Waves: A Comprehensive AnalysisDecoding USDINR with Elliott Waves: A Comprehensive Analysis Weekly Perspective: Daily Perspective: 4 Hourly Perspective: Hourly Perspective: Current Stage: Inside iv of (c) of 2 of ((1)) of wave V of wave (III). Current Bias: Presently showing a bearish inclination on the hourly chart. Future Outlook: Post the completion of wave (c) of 2 , a potential swing towards the north is anticipated. Invalidation Level: Post starting journey towards north Strictly set at the recent swing low of (c) of 2, serving as a critical point for the bearish bias. If breached, it might prompt a re-evaluation of wave counts on the hourly time frame. Elliott Wave Concept: Elliott Wave Theory proposes that market prices unfold in specific patterns, providing insights into potential future price movements. It identifies waves of various degrees, each with its own subdivisions, illustrating the cyclical nature of market psychology. Corrections, labeled as 2 or (b), are temporary pauses in the prevailing trend before the larger trend resumes. Validation of Elliott Wave counts often comes from adhering to strict rules and guidelines, including confirmation of trend reversals and respecting key invalidation levels. Conclusion: The USDINR pair, as per Elliott Wave analysis, is currently navigating a complex pattern with bearish signals on the hourly chart. However, the prospect of an upcoming swing towards the north is plausible post the completion of wave 2. Traders are advised to closely monitor the invalidation level as it holds the key to potential shifts in the Elliott Wave counts. I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only. Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses. Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else. However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business. If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...! Hope this post is helpful to community Thanks RK💕 Disclaimer and Risk Warning. The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
by RK_Chaarts
14
USDINR Neutral but needs a medium-term pull-back.The USDINR pair has been practically ranged around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since September but on a long-term perspective, close to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Rising Wedge. This calls for a technical medium-term pull-back, especially with the Bearish Divergence on the 1D RSI, which is trading within a Channel Down. Our target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at the bottom of the Wedge at 82.600. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
USDINR: Watch closely for an insane 2024 rally.USDINR is trading inside an Ascending Triangle on the 1W timeframe, with the 1W technical outlook constantly bullish (RSI = 59.515, MACD = 0.267, ADX = 38.795). This is despite 8 failed attempts in the last 9 weeks to close a 1W candle over the top of the Ascending Triangle, which on any other occasion would be considered a sign of weakness. With the 1W MACD on a Bullish Cross though and the whole pattern supported by the 1W MA50 in July, we expect a bullish breakout to take place soon. The chart on the right which is on the 1M timeframe shows the incredible upside potential of the pair every time it breaks out. If we get the candle close we want, look for a buy and at least a +12.60% rise (TP = 92.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Long
by InvestingScope
4
USDINR Stuck in a Triangle. Trade the break-out.The USDINR pair is trading inside a 1.5 month Triangle (blue), following the upward break-out of the 1 year Ascending Triangle. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting for 2 months and as long as it holds, buy when the price breaks above Resistance 1 (83.4200). The target can be 84.500, representing a +2.13% leg extension on a potential emerging Channel Up. If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will sell instead and target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at 82.4500, which is marginally above Support 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
NIFTY:- Pundits or Punters!Extreme fear, Futures hopes, future should look like future ("Elan Musk"). FED officials' comments cuts both ways, starts with hawkish to very hawkish tone. Ranging from need more than one hike, soft landing possible, rates will stay till 2024 then not sure if the next meeting holds any hike. Crude gallops near 95, blame the inventory deficits. USD continues to rocket; safe heaven Gold goes south. There are no safe heavens right now other than dollar, and that is reflected even in Rupee (despite the regulatory interventions, no one knows when it is over!). Crypto continues its riddle, most memory have been erased of this space. Data front Final GDP, PPI, Michigan Inflation expectations, some inflation from Europe, Powell speech is the one's to look for. Half year ending, flows to drive the markets. Fear Index is at its lowest, SPOOS held the support on close basis, despite much deeper low. 4240-4340 dictates here. Markets behaved more or less to our expectations, those who feared the fall, would have seen an opportunity to buy around 19570 area for move towards our top of the range 19730. Held by the trend line, the PIP graphs show the hammer pattern, assuming that remains the support, one can expect max moves to 19880 (not today's call and not 100% probable moves). While a close above 19880 is needed for the bulls to re-assert, bears need 19580 close to trigger more fears. Holiday shift does not do any great things, FII and DII volumes are dried up. For the day 19650-19780 should work. NSE recommendation to SEBI for longer hours, not sure why that is needed when GIFTNIFTY is available, are we moving towards ODTE tribe here too. Then Why do you need Gaming apps?
NSE:NIFTY
by sreebhashyam
NIFTYBANK:- The 60/40 approach!60/40 is the popular investment strategy that has gone terribly wrong to the international investors. If any it might turn out to be the third year in row. While the liquidity is pouring in the bonds (safety?), the bets for yields fall is coming down. The recent up-move of USD is anything but a factor of another 25 basis point move higher in terms of cost. Not referring directly to us, but in general. FED's Kashkari comments that there is 40% chance rates to go higher pushes the hawkish tone further. He is voting member. His comments about economy hitting soft landing with 60% chances echos mixed voices. (read our last week comments on economy in the substack). With Crude at elevated levels, next week our MPC, higher US dollar, post the Bond Inclusion, it is interesting to take a look at our own bond yields. The graph PIP shows the price action is held the long supply line, now in the shape of bull flag. So, the corrections to continue but the yields appear based. Note the shape of the correction and continuation needs to be read in different ways based on different asset classes, there are no one fit all scales. What is interesting to note with the recent up and down moves, on a three month scale this index is down 120 points. That is, we are where we were three months back. Completely dominated by the PSU pack. On the Index this is not the story, in otherwards, this looks much more beaten than the main index. 44400-44900 are the range to watch and hold before next meaningful move. The banking stocks elsewhere are not in favourable places, partly due to the market-to-market losses, squeeze in NIMS and the broader economic outlook or is there a credit event in the waiting. Citi Share price down near 50% from 80 to 40, mathematically it needs 100% move to reach where it was. Thankfully we are not in that pack. For the day continue grudging moves down first flat next kind of a day one can expect.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by sreebhashyam
NIFTYBANK - "Bonds-Bears-Bats"Two pictures, the big one is intra-day and the PIP is Weekly. Intra-day is picture showing the bearish bat pattern, which moved to its logical down path. Triggered on break of the 0.886 number break. This morning BOJ leaves rates unchanged, no trouble in moving any of the financial markets. The bank that has not rocked any boat. SNB leaves, BOE pauses despite expectation of hike. Markets punish. The much-awaited news of Bond Inclusion is liquidity additive, not sure if they are in short term equity additive. On the aggregate, it should add to the underlying investment pool when the global interest rate differences skew to us. At present with USD Rates of Closer to 6% and our Yields minus the Currency Depreciation, will be the considerations to keep in mind. Timing is important, for today, they are mere headlines, market may treat them at a later date. One dead cat bounce? The big trouble to the Index unfolds 43800-44200 range and base if they are taken out. The large Caps stocks have given away their advantage, while the small caps are prone to profit taking. The Second half of 2023 will go to the nimble and humble traders. Move over Exuberance, Return to Sanity (worth reading the speech form RBI). For the day 44400-44900 would fancy a range. Week-end fear or hopes will drive the last one hour. Dont be influenced by overseas cues for a change.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by sreebhashyam