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USDINR

The only level in play is 68.86=> After many requests from our followers in India we are posting an update to the USDINR map. => Here from a technical perspective we can see that there is a case to be made for the '5th wave' already being put in place... although we didn't quite reach the target for the minimum flow it came close enough. => This means the next big support level below is 68.86 which includes a confluence of major highs in 2013 and 2018. This is the 50% retrace of the final advance wave. => Rationally, the fact this level was so important on the way up and took many times to crack ...we know it will be equally important on the way down. A break below will increase confidence that a major top has been put in placed and afterwards there is very little in the ladder till 66.15. => Here actively looking to build positions to the downside and tracking 68.86 very closely. => Good luck to all those trading this one in live or looking to build positions ... or simply watching from the sideline
by ridethepig
2
Further EM pressure and INR will capitulate=> With oil creeping higher again we are maintaining a bearish view on India => There is no reason for INR to no longer remain offered as US yields push higher and attract foreign capital and global uncertainties rise. => The Indian government deficit has rising for half a year now and we are seeing a widening of corporate spreads with equities selling off. => This will be a very interesting one to track as we may see capitulation in other EM markets. => GL all
Long
by ridethepig
USD/INR - Evaporating Hope For Better Days - 4/30/2018 Rise in USD/INR is going to be the proportional to the rate of evaporation of the hope for better days in India. Well, the proposition itself was a pipedream but anyway let's focus on currency and not on crooks. I gave a talk in NJ,USA few years back on USD/INR, where the audience was comprised of some bankers from India and some politicians along with many people doing frequent repatriation of US Dollars into Indian Rupees . Basically bankers were there to lure NRI investors to invest in India and take advantage of better exchange rate ( It was the time when USD/INR shot up above 60 for the first time ). Their argument was that, it is just temporary and USD/INR will be back to 40/50 range quickly. Reason? Well, the only reason they had is that it just happens that way ! While my thoughts were that USD/INR is going only in one direction and that is up ! Because, the land of lawlessness still need to do lot better to attract good stable long-term investment from foreigners. Luckily Indian Rupee has weathered few years in good condition than its other Asian peers. But sooner or later the reality will catch up. Imminent potential problems may arise from next year election and from Fed rate rising. Still the Trade is: Buy USD, sell INR
ULong
by BombayBulls