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Usdjpy-trading

USD/JPY - Need consecutive daily closing above 105.55Resistance - 106.26, 107.63, 108.23 (50-DMA) Support - 105.55, 104.847, 103.55 Pair currently trades around 105.70 after having clocked a high of 106.04 levels. Pair needs to close above 105.55 levels and ensure tomorrow's closing is above 105.55 as well. In such a case, the spot could move higher to 106.26-106.38 levels. Moreover, two consecutive day end closing above 105.55 could trigger short unwinding that could yield a rise to 50-DMA seen today at 108.23 levels. Traders hoping for a technical correction need to observe caution if the daily closing today/tomorrow is below 105.55 as it would signal a fall back to recent cyclical low of 103.55 levels.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY fast approaching channel supportAs anticipated on Monday in a post titled "USD/JPY - Fed Scenarios", the spot now appears on track to test channel support. Resistance – 104.36, 105.55, 105.90 Support – 102.60, 101.70, 100.72 With BOJ holding fire and Fed’s cautious stance forcing markets to reconsider the possibility of rate hike in 2016, there is little in the way of Yen bulls. The spot appears on track to test channel support at 102.60. Sharp rise in Yen is pulling crosses lower and leading to broad based USD weakness as well. Against Euro, the Yen is now trading at highest level since early 2013.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY Fed scenariosDaily chart shows the pair is moving in a falling channel and neared cyclical low of 105.55 (May 3rd low) earlier today. A day end closing below 105.55 would open doors for sharp losses. As of now, only Fed rate hike could save the day for Yen bears. Markets believe the Bank of Japan has run out of ammo and even more stimulus may not have intended effects. Consequently, if Fed statement fails to prop up rate hike bets, the spot could see a day end closing below 105.00. That would open doors for a slide to channel support around 102.00. On the other hand, we could see the pair break channel resistance and near 112.00 levels over the next month or so if July rate hike bets rise and there is no Brexit.
by TipTVFinance
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Dow30-USD/JPY comparisonMajor part of the rally in US stocks since late 2012 appears to have been fuelled by Yen carry trade. Remember Bank of Japan was the first one to fire and the stage was set after Abe came to power. BOJ announced easing in April 2013 and followed it with another surprise in October 2014. BOJ's aggressive actions also forced ECB and other central banks to press the easing button. However, the situation now is Yen is not in mood to weaken, markets are not responding positively to aggressive central bank actions and oil has already doubled from its bottom in February. Moreover, oil helped indices recover from Feb lows even though funding currencies like JPY, EUR were on the rise. Hence, oil better stay resilient other wise, odds of a corrective move in Dow would rise. From technical perspective a break below rising trend line (black) could bring in chart driven bears as well.
FX:US30
by TipTVFinance
USDJPY OutlookResistance - 109.68, 109.89, 110.34 Support - 109.56, 109.37, 109.00 Pattern on hourly chart - Rising trend line, sideways channel Outlook Pair's jump from daily 5-SMA seen today if followed by a bullish break from sideways channel on hourly chart could open doors for a cut through strong resistance at 109.68 and 108.89 levels. An hourly closing above 108.89 would expose 110.34 (23.6% of 125.856-105.55). On the lower side, a failure to sustain above 109.56 would mark a re-entry into sideways channel. Bearish momentum is seen gaining pace only below daily low of 108.88.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY outlookResistance - 109.45, 110.00, 110.67 Support - 108.23, 107.84, 107.66 Pair's rejection at trend line resistance on Friday followed by a weak closing (forming a bearish inverted hammer) indicates a temporary top in in place at 109.56 levels. This could translate into a drop to 108.23 levels , which if breached shall open doors for 107.66, which is likely to be defended. On the higher side, only a day end closing above 110.00 (falling trend line resistance) would signal continuation of rally from the low of 105.55.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY – approaching critical hurdle, overbought hourly RSIResistance – 109.51, 109.85, 110.71 Support – 109.00, 108.60, 108.27 A bullish daily close above falling trend line on the daily chart coupled with jawboning from BOJ pushed the pair higher to 109.15 levels. The hourly RSI is overbought and signaling lower highs ahead. Consequently, pair could have a tough time extending gains from there, although doors remain open for a test of major hurdle at 109.85 (falling channel establish in early March to early April). On the lower side, support at 109.00 could be put to test, courtesy of overbought RSI/or a sideways action could be seen.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY US session outlookResistance – 108.38, 108.72, 108.92-109.00 Support – 107.97-107.92, 107.50, 107.00 Pair is attempting to chew through strong resistance at 108.38 (falling trend line on daily + 100% Fib expansion), which if achieved shall open doors for 108.72 levels. However, the hourly RSI is now overbought. Hence, exhaustion here would not be surprising and may lead to a minor bout of correction to 107.97-107.92 area before the uptick resumes. Note that daily chart has a bullish price RSI pattern; hence dips could be met with fresh bids unless Friday’s low of 106.43 is breached. A daily close today well above falling trendline resistance would add credence to bullish price RSI divergence.
by TipTVFinance
USD/JPY rejected at 50-DMA, focus now shifts to BOJResistance – 111.71, 111.93, 112.30 Support – 111.00, 110.67, 110.00 USD/JPY was rejected at 50-DMA, as Fed failed to offer any clues regarding the timing of rate hike. Now the focus is on BOJ. Talks of negative rate on loans was out on the wires last Friday. Since then, USD/JPY has rallied 200-pips or so. Pair could head higher if BOJ over delivers, although sustainability of the rally is doubtful, since negative rate driven rally on Jan 29 had quickly fizzled out. On the other hand, pair could fall back below 110.67 if BOJ under delivers.
by TipTVFinance