ShortYesterday, I opened a short position during the Asian session and published my trade set up , but I ended up manually closing the position before the US open becauseI was a bit anxious about US GDP data.
But the main concern was the price was hovering around the major support and resistance area and I could see valid reasons to go long as well.
The obvious reason for the long position was the price was forming big inverted head and shoulder patterns. So, if the price broke above the resistance area, there would have been a great upside potential.
However, after the US session opened, I ended up opening a short position. The reasons are written in the article I published yesterday. Please read that article that is linked below.
But another argument I would like to add for the bear scenario is this.
In Nov-Dec 2024, we had a very similar set up ( dark blue rectangular box in the chart.) At the time, the price was also forming the inverted head and shoulder at the same support/resistance zone. Once it broke the resistance line, it took off to the upside. And that same scenario can unfold this time as well.
However, what is different between Dec 2024 period and the current period are:
1) VWAP (volume weighted average price) drawn from the major low in 24th Sept was working as support but this time the same VWAP is working as resistance.
2) MACD and RSI were moving from bear zone to the bull zone, but this time they are moving to the downside from the bull zone.
Therefore, I think the momentum is to the downside this time. The only time will tell.
My current short position is quite small. However, once the direction becomes more clear I plan to add more position because the move to the downside from here can be quite significant.
