JPY Market Analysis Update – Key Level at 148.000Market Overview:
📈 Strong JPY Performance:
Expectations of another BoJ rate hike have pushed the Japanese Yen to perform strongly in the Asia-Pacific region.
📊 Record Net Long Positions:
Non-commercial traders' net long yen futures surged to 96K contracts (up from 61K), setting a 30-year record according to CFTC data.
Technical Insights:
📉 Descending Channel & Reversal Setup:
While bearish pressure has been evident, momentum is showing signs of easing, hinting at a potential stabilization or near-term bounce. A reversal setup is identified in the 147.000/148.000 zone.
🎯 Key Level:
Next week, the crucial level is 148.000. Be prepared for a buy signal if prices break above, or a sell signal if they remain below this level.
Upcoming Catalysts:
⏰ Fed Policy Uncertainty:
With Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that rate cuts are not imminent, this policy uncertainty could favor the US Dollar in the coming week, influencing the JPY further.
Keep an eye on the Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Stay Tuned:
I'll provide a detailed update at the beginning of next week. Follow along for more insights and actionable trading strategies!
Happy Trading!
Disclaimer:
Forex and other market trading involve high risk and may not be for everyone. This content is educational only—not financial advice. Always assess your situation and consult a professional before investing. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
USDJPY
Could the price bounce from here?USD/JPY is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as an overlap resistance.
Pivot: 146.90
1st Support: 144.74
1st Resistance: 149.28
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Bullish rebound?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce form this level to our take profit.
Entry: 146.95
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Stop loss: 143.76
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly below the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 150.92
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that line sup with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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CADJPY - Take Advantage of This Clean Correction!CADJPY Daily Timeframe
CADJPY has shown a clear impulse in July 2024. We are now in a massive correction, consisting of 3 major waves, ABC. It appears we have almost completed Wave B and now we are anticipating wave C.
We expect wave C to push up to the corrective highs where we have the 61.8 fib.
Here are some key things to watch:
- Wave Structure: Ensure that Wave B has completed its corrective pattern
- Wave C Confirmation: Look for a strong bullish impulse off the lows of Wave B.
- Volume & Momentum: A rise in volume and bullish divergence in RSI/MACD could confirm Wave C is underway.
Confirmation for Wave C:
Break of Structure (BOS) / Trendline Break
When identifying confirmation for Wave C, a Break of Structure (BOS) or a Trendline Break is one of the strongest signals that the corrective phase is ending.
Break of Structure (BOS) – Key Levels to Watch
Wave B typically forms lower highs and lower lows. A break above the last lower high signals a bullish shift.
Look for a decisive close above the previous swing high on the 4H or daily timeframe. A weak break (with wicks) may indicate hesitation.
A higher low after the break adds extra confirmation.
Trendline Break – Reversal Signal
If Wave B formed a descending trendline, watch for a clean breakout with strong bullish candles (not just wicks).
Retest of the trendline as support after the breakout strengthens the case for Wave C starting.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for Wave C to start using the techniques listed above
- Once entered, keep stops below wave B
- Targets: 107 (500pips), 112 (1000pips)
Goodluck and as always trade safe!
See below for our previous swing setups:
Swing Setup 1
Swing Setup 2
Swing Setup 3
NZDJPY - 2025 Plan. Make It Your Best Year Yet!Here we have the 2 Day chart for NZDJPY.
We've seen a massive impulse mid 2024. We are now in an ABC correction.
We are currently in wave B of the correction, subwave B. Expecting subwave C to complete wave B.
We're looking for a rejection of the fib zone and a drop of over 700pips.
Trade idea:
- Watch for rejection of fib zone
- Once rejection appears, enter with stops above the highs
- Targets: 86 (350pips), 83 (700pips)
Once we've completed this move down, we'll be looking for longs. We'll update this setup if there's enough engagement.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
AUDJPY - Growing SHORTS! Big Move Ahead!In one of our last AUDJPY analysis, we indicated that price looked foppish. Since then, we've had almost a 2000pip drop!
That big drop can be marked as wave 1 in our new bearish impulsive trend.
We are now in Wave 2, which is an ABC correction. We have completed Wave A (3 waves). We are now in Wave B (3 waves). We're currently in subwave b of wave B. Expecting subwave c to appear very soon.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframe
- You can use trendline break, fibs or BOS to find the reversal point
- When entered, put stops above subwave B.
- Target: 91 (750pips)
4Week Chart
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
See our previous setups below:
XAUUSD and USDJPY Top-down analysisHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USDJPY - Bigger correction on the daily timeframeUSD/JPY's daily chart indicates we're expecting a larger correction in the near term, followed by a likely continuation of the downtrend toward the blue box target area (143.50-146.00). After reaching peaks near 162.00 in July 2024 and 158.00 in December 2024/January 2025, the pair has established a series of lower highs, creating a clear downtrend pattern. Currently trading around 148.05, the price sits at a critical juncture, with the projected path suggesting a temporary bounce (as illustrated by the zigzag line) before bearish momentum likely resumes. This outlook is supported by the consistent lower highs since mid-2024, the price's position near a historical support/resistance level, February's failed attempt to sustain prices above 150, and the overall downward momentum that has dominated since December 2024.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
USDJPY Weekly FOREX Forecast: March 10 - 14th In this video, we will analyze USDJPY and JPY Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
After a long period of weakness in the YEN, the last couple of months have shown a turnaround. By several metrics, the BOJ has the country's economy finding its footing, and looking up. This is reflecting in its currency. It a time of uncertainty, the YEN will and has been outperforming the USD, as investors look to it as the safe haven of choice. This is likely to continue in the next week or so.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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USDJPY Will Go Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 148.026.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 146.677 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Gold Bullish to $1,963- 1H TF (UPDATE)Gold Wave 5 (Major Wave Y) moving perfectly as I called for previously! We're seeing a nice push up towards our ATH target of $2,963 which could possibly hit next week.
Because this is the last 'impulse wave' to the upside (Wave 5), price has been moving slow. But that's the way the Elliott Wave Theory works. Last wave moves slow, in order to trap late buyers & sellers.
Yen Benefits from Dollar's Broad RetreatThe Japanese yen held around 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from the dollar’s decline on a stronger euro and Trump’s tariff policies. His selective tariff exemptions and retaliatory measures weakened the dollar further.
Domestically, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida suggested possible rate hikes if economic projections align but emphasized that Japan’s monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with only minimal reductions in government bond holdings.
Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 147.10, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
Fundamental Market Analysis for March 7, 2025 USDJPYEvent to pay attention to today:
15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change
USDJPY:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been strengthening in recent weeks due to the general weakness of the US Dollar (USD), maintaining the USD/JPY pair near its lowest level since early October, which was reached on Thursday.Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates has put upward pressure on Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. The narrowing rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to support the low-yielding yen.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on global economic growth continues to weigh on investor sentiment, as evidenced by weaker stock market performance. This is another factor supporting the safe-haven yen. However, USD bears seem reluctant to place new bets and prefer to wait for the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which in turn limits USD/JPY losses.
Trade recommendation: BUY 147.600, SL 147.000, TP 148.400
USD-JPY Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
USD-JPY is trading in a
Downtrend and the pair
Made a bearish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 149.141 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we will be
Expecting a further move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold - 1H TF (UPDATE)Still keeping an eye out for possible buy's in the short term towards a new ATH at $1,963. Pending LQ sitting at $2,955.
But overall, we're bearish in the mid term so will adapt & also keep an eye out for market structure shifting to bearish. Current market structure is very choppy so I know we a lot of buyers & sellers are getting liquidated around this zone.
USD/JPY – Precision Short Trade Breakdown🔥 Executed a precise short trade on USD/JPY this morning, aligning with institutional order flow and Prime Market Terminal insights. Here’s the full breakdown of how this setup played out!
🔍 Trade Setup & Analysis:
📌 Entry: 149.300 – Price rejected a key supply zone & Fibonacci retracement level.
📌 Stop Loss: 149.558 – Above key liquidity & invalidation area.
📌 Take Profit: 148.504 (first TP), 148.213 (final target).
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3
📊 Prime Market Terminal Insights That Confirmed This Trade:
🔻 Institutional Positioning & Market Flow:
✔ Smart Money Report:
Large institutions were heavily net short USD/JPY, with leveraged funds reducing their long exposure.
Dealer intermediaries (banks and liquidity providers) also added more short positions, indicating further downside momentum.
✔ COT (Commitment of Traders) Data:
Open interest showed a significant drop in long positions, suggesting weakness in USD/JPY.
Hedge funds and asset managers increasing short exposure aligned with my bearish bias.
✔ DMX Open Interest:
66% of institutional traders were short on USD/JPY, confirming my sell-side setup.
Short positioning had increased by 34% in the last session, reinforcing my downside expectation.
🔻 Volatility & Liquidity Insights:
✔ Average True Range (ATR) Analysis:
ATR showed a high probability of an extended move, suggesting the potential for price to hit my targets.
Recent daily ranges indicated USD/JPY had room to move another 100+ pips to the downside.
✔ Session Range & Market Structure:
Liquidity grab above 149.300 supply zone, followed by strong rejection and sell-off.
Previous session lows were swept, indicating smart money targeting deeper liquidity.
Institutional orders clustered around 148.200, suggesting a likely downside target.
🔻 High-Impact News That Influenced USD/JPY:
📢 Japanese Unemployment Rate (Actual: 2.5% | Forecast: 2.5%) → No surprise, minimal impact.
📉 Business Capex (MOF YY) (-0.2% vs. 8.1% previous) → Indicated economic slowdown, weakening JPY demand.
📰 U.S. Economic Data Later Today:
Redbook YY (USD) expected at 6.2% – could impact USD sentiment.
Fed’s Williams speech on monetary policy could affect USD volatility, reinforcing our bias.
🎯 Trade Execution & Outcome:
✅ TP HIT! Price dropped as expected, hitting both targets with precision.
🚀 Perfect confluence of:
✅ Smart money selling pressure
✅ Liquidity sweep & supply zone rejection
✅ High-probability move from ATR analysis
📸 Prime Market Terminal Screenshots Included:
📊 DMX Open Interest → Confirmed institutions were net short.
📊 COT Data → Showed decline in long positions.
📊 ATR & Volatility Charts → Supported extended downside movement.
📊 Session Ranges & Market Structure → Confirmed liquidity grab & supply zone rejection.
🔑 Key Takeaways from This Trade:
✔ Trade with institutional momentum – Always check positioning before entering!
✔ Multiple confirmations = High probability setups – Don’t rely on a single indicator.
✔ Liquidity is key – Smart money moves price to hunt liquidity, trade accordingly.
✔ Fundamentals matter – Weak JPY capex data helped push price lower.
💬 What’s your view on USD/JPY? Will we see further downside? Drop your thoughts below!
📊 Follow for more trade setups, market analysis & strategy breakdowns!
Yen Steady Near 149 as BOJ Hints at Possible Rate HikesThe yen held near 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from a weaker dollar amid a stronger euro and Trump’s tariffs. While Trump eased tariffs for some automakers, retaliatory measures pressured the dollar. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida signaled potential rate hikes if economic forecasts hold, noting financial conditions remain loose with minimal JGB reductions.
Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 148.60, followed by 147.10 and 145.80.
XAU/USD Analysis & Market Insights📉 Bearish Context & Key Resistance Levels:
Major Resistance at 2,934.00
Strong supply zone where price has previously rejected.
Multiple tests of this area indicate seller pressure.
Short-term Resistance at 2,920-2,925
Price is consolidating near this zone.
A rejection could lead to a downward move.
📈 Bullish Context & Key Support Levels:
Support at 2,846.88 - 2,832.72 (Demand Zone)
Strong reaction zone where buyers stepped in.
Previous price action suggests liquidity in this area.
Deeper Support at 2,720-2,680
If 2,832 breaks, this is the next key demand area.
Aligned with moving averages, adding confluence.
📉 Current Market Outlook:
Price recently bounced from the 2,846-2,832 support, showing buyers’ presence.
However, the 2,920-2,925 area is acting as resistance.
If the price fails to break higher, a move back toward 2,846 or even 2,720 is possible.
📈 Potential Trading Setups:
🔻 Short Setup (Bearish Bias):
Entry: Below 2,920 after a clear rejection.
Target 1: 2,846
Target 2: 2,832, with possible extension to 2,720.
Stop Loss: Above 2,935 to avoid fakeouts.
🔼 Long Setup (Bullish Scenario):
Entry: Break and hold above 2,934.00 with confirmation.
Target 1: 2,960
Target 2: 3,000+
Stop Loss: Below 2,915 to minimize risk.
📰 Fundamental Analysis & Market Drivers
1️⃣ US ISM Services PMI & ADP Jobs Report:
The ISM Services PMI increased to 53.5, signaling stronger services inflation and employment.
However, the ADP Employment Report showed a disappointing 77K jobs, far below the expected 140K, weighing on the USD.
2️⃣ Trump’s Tariffs & USD Weakness:
Trump announced massive tariffs on trade partners, affecting risk sentiment.
While he downplayed negative effects, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at potential tariff rollbacks, boosting risk appetite.
This weakened the USD, allowing gold to rise.
3️⃣ Upcoming ECB Decision:
The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, which could further impact market sentiment and gold’s direction.
If the rate cut weakens the EUR, gold could see more upside.
📌 Final Thoughts:
2,920-2,925 remains a key resistance for short-term direction.
A break above 2,934 could signal bullish continuation.
A rejection from current levels could push price back toward 2,846 or lower.
Fundamentals favor gold's strength as the USD weakens due to poor job data and trade uncertainty.
🚀 Key Decision Zone: Watch price action near 2,920-2,925!