Levels discussed during livestream 3rd Feb 20253rd Feb 2025
DXY: If price stays above 109.30, could see it trade up to 110, beyond that 111
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5530 SL 25 TP 60
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6080 SL 30 TP 80
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2230 SL 40 TP 120 (hesitation at 1.2164)
EURUSD: Sell 1.0160 SL 50 TP 150
USDJPY: Buy 156 SL 35 TP 70
EURJPY: Sell 159.40 SL 50 TP 100
GBPJPY: Sell 191.70 SL 50 TP 110
USDCHF: Wait and look for reaction at 0.92 resistance level
USDCAD: Sell 1.4655 SL 50 TP 100
XAUUSD: Look for reaction at 2790 resistance (break upwards to 2812 on recessionary/reinflation/trade war fear) or reject down on DXY strength (inverse relationship)
USDJPY
WEEKLY RECAP - Week 1, 2025The most important thing to reflect on each week is NOT your profit and loss balance.
Instead, reflect on these three questions:
- Did I follow my core habits for success?
- Am I ready to let my attachments from last week go?
- Am I focusing on this current moment, or a destination I'm trying to reach?
I won't put a whole lot of words here. It's all in the video, but here are the three setups from last week, and here is my notion journal so you can follow along.
USDJPY
EURUSD
EURUSD
Notion Journal
Enjoy the ride,
-Gio
USDJPY R2🔍 Technical Analysis of USD/JPY
📌 Overall Trend:
After a downward correction, the price has reached the 154.250 support zone.
A positive reaction at this level suggests a potential upward move.
A price gap is visible in the 156.000 - 156.400 range, which may lead to a price increase to fill the gap.
📈 Buy Trade Signal (Long Position)
🔹 Entry Conditions:
If the price holds the 154.250 - 154.400 support zone and bullish reversal candlesticks appear, a long trade is recommended.
The ideal entry range is 154.600 - 154.860.
🔹 Stop Loss (SL):
Below 154.250
🔹 Take Profit (TP):
First target: 155.860
Second target: 156.110
Third target: 156.400 (if the bullish momentum continues)
🔹 Risk Management:
If the price stabilizes below 154.250, reconsider the trade.
Breaking above 156.110 increases the likelihood of further bullish movement to fill the price gap.
✅ Final Conclusion:
If the price finds support at 154.250 - 154.400, a buy trade is favorable.
A breakout above 156.110 could lead to a further target of 156.400.
📌 Ensure confirmation through price action and candlestick patterns before entering the trade.
Japanese Yen Set for Weekly GainThe Japanese yen weakened beyond 155.5 per dollar, marking its second straight decline as the dollar strengthened. The US imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, triggering retaliatory actions from the affected nations. Although Japan was not directly targeted, its export-driven economy remains exposed to global trade disruptions.
A summary of discussions from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting indicated that policymakers considered the possibility of further interest rate hikes to counter inflationary pressures and a weakening yen. In January, the BOJ raised its policy rate and signaled its willingness to increase rates again if economic conditions and inflation trends warrant further action.
The key resistance level appears to be 155.90, with a break above it potentially targeting 158.70 and 160.00. On the downside, 153.80 is the first major support, followed by 151.90 and 149.20 if the price moves lower.
UJ Prepping Falling Wedge Breakout To Start 2025?FX:USDJPY starts 2025 in what appears to be a Falling Wedge, but following the 50% Fibonacci Retracement based from the Low @ 148.639 to start December 2024 to the High @ 158.874 last month, Price seems to may be ready to setup for a Bullish Break of this Pattern.
To see if FX:USDJPY has truly Broken Out of the Falling Wedge, here are some signals:
1) While price travels lower in the Falling Wedge, we can see Volume picks up the lower price goes
2) The Breaking Candle following the 2nd 50% Retracement touch generates a good amount of Bullish Volume compared to the similarly sized printed Bullish Candle following the 1st 50% Retracement touch (both candles marked in yellow to compare)
3) Following this Break, we see RSI Break above the 50 mark moving into Bullish territory.
** Buy Opportunities will come if Price successfully retest the Break of the Falling Resistance and finds Support.
-- Beware of a False Break if Price decides to fall back down Below the Falling Resistance too soon before a legitimate test.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 153.39
1st Support: 149.27
1st Resistance: 158.28
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Bearish reversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 155.69
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 156.61
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 154.19
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Forex Market AnalysisUSD with a failed 2D week to go 2-2 rev to the upside and take out pivot highs. This occurs at the same time as the EURO looking weak with the most interesting of the 3 charts. EURO with the potential 2-1-2D week after clearing Motherbar highs two weeks ago and now giving us the actionable signal back through to motherbar lows. Price was stuck in the motherbar range for 8 weeks before taking out highs. Now looking to make a sharp move back through that motherbar range to the lows. YEN with the successful 2-2 rev week that has given us a clear BF if we were to drop to the daily TF. YEN with TFC supporting more upside, and being closer to 2-2 continuation rather than 2-2 rev. Not as interesting as USD and EURO at the moment, but definitely will be noted as I am mainly watching anything EUR/X for downside, and USD/X for upside. Side note: GBP and AUD both bearish weekly's but not as interesting as other currencies right now. Main pairs to watch this week :
Bull:
USD/JPY- (Daily PMG to the upside could be a huge early week mover)
USD/CAD - Daily hammer 2-2 for BF expansion
Bear:
EUR/USD (2-2 Week, Gorgeous weekly BF)
GBP/USD - Weekly 2-2 to the downside. Larger ATR than most others
AUD/HKD - shooter 2-2 Daily, Inside week. Check the Daily BF (Wow)
Neutral:
AUD/CAD - 3-1 Daily and inside week
USDJPY Is Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for USDJPY.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 155.154.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 154.683 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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USDJPY | Yen Futures Weekly FOREX Forecast: Feb 3-7thThis forecast is for the upcoming week, Feb 3 - 7th.
The Yen has been week for an extended amount of time, underperforming against the USD. But the tide might be changing, this NFP week. As the USD is reacting to a HTF selling zone over the last couple of weeks, the Yen is finding buyers during that same time. This could continue for the near term.
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May profits be upon you.
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Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Dollar - Gold Market CorrelationThe Dollar (DXY) has closed extremely bullish this week. This is another confluence that we can see Gold (XAUUSD) start moving down soon or later.
As you all know the DXY & XAUUSD have negative market correlations, so when one moves up the other move down. The Dollar has been correcting down recently, which has led to Gold pushing up & creating new ATH’s. However, I now expect Dollar bulls to resume, which means we can see Gold get ready for a bear market in the mid term.
USDJPY_4HUSDJPY_4H BULLISH
Everything is mentioned on Charts.
Please always look for double confirmation before entry.
Wish you Happy & safe Trading.
Trade as per your own RISK
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My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please consult your financial advisor before Trading or Investing.
I'm not responsible for any kinds of your Profits & Losses.
USDJPY Shorts Based on Current Re-DistributionBy combining Wyckoff and SMC principles we have a clear guide on what to expect, and what to do when it happens.
Patience is the name of the game, so set your alerts and hang tight until then.
- Option 2 could turn into a short term swing trade (until we reach daily demand levels)
Tokyo core inflation hits one-year high, yen lowerJapan's Tokyo's core inflation rate accelerated to 2.5% y/y in January, up from 2.4% in December and in line with market expectations. This marked the highest level since February 2024 and reflects rising inflationary pressure. Tokyo CPI jumped to 3.4% y/y, its highest in almost two years, as food prices rose sharply.
Tokyo core CPI is closely monitored by Bank of Japan policymakers and supports last week's central bank decision to raise interest rates by a quarter point to 0.50%. The current cash rate is far below other central banks but is the highest in Japan since the global financial crisis in 2008.The Japanese yen has reversed directions on Friday and has edged lower. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 154.73, up 0.28% on the day.
At the meeting, the BoJ revised higher its inflation forecasts and also hinted at further rate hikes. Deputy Governor Himino echoed this stance earlier this week, stating that the BoJ would consider further hikes if economic and inflation data continued to move in accordance with the Bank's projection. This flurry of hints about rate hikes is unusual for the BoJ, which tends to reveal little and keep speculators in the dark about its rate plans.
This secretive approach often results in sharp volatility from the yen after BoJ meetings, and Bank policymakers may be looking to avoid further sharp swings from the yen. It seems clear that further rate hikes are a question of time as the BoJ moves forward, albeit cautiously, towards normalization. The BoJ meets next on March 19 and investors will be looking for more clues about a possible rate hike at that time.
USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 154.48. Next, there is resistance at 155.16
153.59 and 152.91 are the next support levels
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 31, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) underwent heavy selling during the Asian session on Tuesday and pulled back from the six-week high reached the previous day against its US counterpart. Investors remain concerned about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade policies, which in turn undermines the Japanese yen. In addition, a good rebound in US Treasury bond yields was another factor pushing flows away from the low-yielding yen. The recovery of the US dollar is adding to the pressure on the yen, reducing its attractiveness.
Nevertheless, a significant decline in the yen seems unlikely amid bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates. On the contrary, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, which in turn could serve as a headwind for US bond yields, the dollar and the currency pair.
Investors continue to monitor developments, including upcoming speeches by Fed and BoJ officials, as well as the publication of key economic indicators that could affect the future dynamics of USD/JPY.
Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Yen Set for Weekly Gain Amid BOJ Signals and Strong Data The Japanese yen strengthened to 154 per dollar on Friday, set to end the week and month higher as expectations grow for more BOJ rate hikes. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino signaled further hikes if economic growth and inflation stay on track.
Friday’s data showed Tokyo’s core inflation hit an 11-month high of 2.5% in January, retail sales exceeded forecasts, industrial production rebounded, and unemployment fell unexpectedly. Meanwhile, traders await clarity on Trump’s policies after he reaffirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on China still under review.
The key resistance level appears to be 155.60, with a break above it potentially targeting 158.70 and 160.00. On the downside, 153.80 is the first major support, followed by 151.90 and 149.20 if the price moves lower.