USDJPY is getting ready for next big movement!Hey guys,
Based on the chart, a major resistance area is broken and currently we are in a range market that I consider it as a simple correction for the next movement of price.
I've defined 3 levels of take profit and with consideration of risk/reward 1/3.7, it be a good trading opportunity.
Good luck!
USDJPY
XAU/USD : Liquidity Grab at $2733, Next Trend Awaits NY Session!By analyzing the 4-hour gold chart, we see that the price finally broke out of the neutral range of $2702-$2714 today, reaching as high as $2733 and clearing liquidity above $2727. After this liquidity grab, gold experienced a slight correction, retracing to $2717. Currently, the price is trading around $2722.
As the New York market opens, we’ll see if gold can establish its next trend. It’s still too early to declare a bearish shift, as the bullish trend remains intact until the price breaks and stabilizes below $2688. For now, consider these levels for positions:
Supply Zones: $2727, $2742, $2753
Demand Zones: $2717, $2711, $2703
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GBPJPY and USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Bank of Japan expected to raise rates, yen calmThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.25, down 0.16% on the day.
All eyes are on the Bank of Japan, which meets early on Friday. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points which would bring the cash rate to 0.50%. The BoJ has said that it will raise rates if it sees higher wage growth, which would indicate that inflation is sustainable. BoJ policymakers have expressed confidence that wages are moving higher and Deputy Governor Himino said last week that many firms plan to raise wages at least as much as last year.
Investors will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ's rate statement. The tone of the statement could be dovish as BoJ policymakers are concerned about President Donald Trump's threats to levy trade tariffs as early as Feb. 1, a move which could destabilize the financial markets. The BoJ will have to be cautious as it gauges the 'Trump factor".
Another factor supporting a rate hike is the poor performance of the Japanese yen, which has declined around 9% in the past three months. The Federal Reserve is sounding more hawkish and might raise rates only once or twice this year. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines again, the yen could fall further.
Overshadowed by the BoJ meeting, Japan releases December core CPI. Japan's core inflation rate has been climbing higher and is expected to climb to 3% y/y, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is closely watched by the BOJ, has hovered above the central bank's target of 2% for over two years.
USD/JPY is testing support at 156.20. Below, there is support at 155.68
157.04 and 157.56 are the next resistance lines
Japanese inflation and BoJ rate decision coming upLet's have a look what may happen with MARKETSCOM:JAPAN225 and FX_IDC:USDJPY after we get the Japanese data on Friday.
We will be monitoring the data carefully, especially the rate decision, as it will be the first hike since July of last year.
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Bullish breakout?USD/JPY has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 156.19
1st Support: 154.76
1st Resistance: 158.16
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Fundamental Market Analysis for January 23, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) rose during the Asian session on Thursday following the release of better-than-expected Japanese trade balance data, although it remains close to a one-week low against its US counterpart from the previous day.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates imminently, a prospect which continues to support the yen. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) anticipated interest rate cuts this year are a factor in the subdued US Dollar (USD) price action, which is limiting the USD/JPY pair's recovery from a more than one-month low reached on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, JPY bulls seem reluctant to take a risk and prefer to adopt a wait-and-see approach ahead of the crucial two-day Bank of Japan meeting that starts this Thursday. Concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and risk-on sentiment may also deter further yen appreciation, but the diverging policy expectations of the BoJ and Fed require some caution before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has formed a short-term bottom.Traders now await Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum to build momentum ahead of the expected BoJ decision on Friday.
Trade recommendation: Watching the level of 156.500, trading mainly with Buy orders
WTI | Selloff Back to $68 w/USD/JPY CorrelationSince the last call on Oil we successfully hit the $77 target.
This next move is now looking to head back to $68 support based on the pivot moves within the current Descending Triangle pattern.
This is also another opportunity to take a back-to-back swing on FX:USDJPY
We got divergence on the forex pair acting like the 'price' and 'oil' acting like the indication
(Convergence/Divergence)
Oil moves first on the down move and usdjpy will follow through after it makes one more leg up.
FOREX Forecast UPDATES! Jan 22, WednesdayIn this video, we will update the forecasts for the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index is now reacting to the Weekly Supply Zone, turning over. There was a bearish MSS, so sells are valid. A BOS would confirm the bearish trend starting, but we need to see how the price action plays out over the next two days.
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USD/JPY climbs, markets eye TrumpThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.53, up 0.68% on the day.
There are no key releases in the US today. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims and President Trump will address the World Economic Forum. Trump has vowed to levy tariffs on US trading partners, including China and the European Union. The financial markets are taking his threats seriously, and on Monday, his first day in office as President, Trump announced that he was delaying applying tariffs until Feb. 1. That announcement was a relief for the market and the US dollar fell sharply against many of the majors, although the yen failed to gain ground. Will Trump's comments at the World Economic Forum shake up the financial markets?
Investors are keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision and December Core CPI on Friday. The central bank has hinted at a rate hike at the rate meeting and is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization. The BoJ's tightening cycle makes it an outlier among the major central banks, most of which are easing rates in response to lower inflation.
Japan's core inflation rate has been steadily rising and is expected to climb to 3% y/y in December 2024, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is a key gauge of inflation trends, has remained above the BoJ target of 2% for over two years and is a key reason why the BoJ is tightening policy.
USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.51 and 156.24. Above, there is resistance at 156.97
154.78 and 154.05 are the next support levels
USDJPY Shorts Based on Current Re-DistributionBy combining Wyckoff and SMC principles we have a clear guide on what to expect, and what to do when it happens.
Patience is the name of the game, so set your alerts and hang tight until then.
- Option 2 could turn into a short term swing trade (until we reach daily demand levels)
USDJPY: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Here is my latest structure analysis and important supports
and resistances on USDJPY.
Resistance 1: 156.40 - 157.25 area
Resistance 2: 158.35 - 158.85 area
Support 1: 154.15 - 154.78 area
Support 2: 150.60 - 151.21 area
Support 3: 148.60 - 149.60 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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USD/JPY -H1- Bearish FlagThe USD/JPY Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 154.30
2nd Support – 153.52
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Market Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects GainsMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects Gains
USD/JPY is correcting gains and now consolidates below 156.00.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 157.00 and 156.60 levels.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 155.90 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 158.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 157.00 support against the Japanese Yen.
The pair even settled below the 156.60 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 155.00 and the pair traded as low as 154.77. It is now correcting losses and trading above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low.
Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near a connecting bearish trend line at 155.90. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low.
The first major resistance is near the 156.60 zone. If there is a close above the 156.60 level and the hourly RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 157.00. The next major resistance is near 157.70, above which the pair could test 158.50 in the coming days.
On the downside, the first major support is near 155.35. The next major support is near the 154.80 level. If there is a close below 154.80, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 154.00 support.
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USDJPY - Neutral Weekly: Overall Bullish. Above is IFVG reacted and moved lower. The price is at FVG.
Daily: Price broke the short-term lower low and inside FVG.
Waiting for a clear direction shift.
fundamentally, the USA is strong but recent weak data. Japan is currently planning to hike interest rates. USDJPY - Neutral.
Levels discussed on Livestream 21st Jan 202521st January 2025
DXY: If the price stays below 108.80, could see it trade lower to 107.80 (50% retracement)
NZDUSD: Looking for retrace to 0.5690 and reaction to 0.57 round number.
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6190 SL 20 TP 55
GBPUSD: Buy 1.2350 SL 50 TP 120
EURUSD: Could retrace higher, looking for reaction at 1.0460
USDJPY: Sell 156.20 SL 50 TP 100
EURJPY: Buy 161.20 SL 70 TP 120
GBPJPY: Buy 192.20 SL 40 TP 80
USDCHF: Could trade lower down to 0.9020 support
USDCAD: Sell 1.44 SL 30 TP 90
XAUUSD: Currently 2730, price stays above 2720 could trade up to 2760
USDJPY holding the MA50 (1d).USDJPY is trading inside a Channel Up since September.
The price has tested, held and consolidated on the MA50 (1d) for the last 4 days (including today).
This is a bullish signal, considering also that this is taking place near the bottom of the Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 164.350 (+6.20% rise).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is below its MA trendline, on a sideways pattern that is similar to the September 16th 2024 and December 3rd 2024 bottoms.
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USD/JPY - Bulls defending ?
Monday may show significant volatility in markets following Trump investiture. Where the dollar will head to remains uncertain, number of FED cuts for 2025 remain uncertain but recent NFP reports and CPI showed strength in labor market and higher inflation, leaning towards a hawkish Fed for this start of the year.
What matters for next week is Trump's investiture, market will be responsive to any type of communication from the incoming president. Trump has made it clear that he wants a weak dollar to reduce the trade deficit. Technical show that Dollar has gained incredible momentum over the past 4 weeks. There will be a clear dilemma for the markets on will Trump's politic will be inflationary (and cause Fed to hold rates higher for longer) or will he succeed in implementing a weaker dollar. Historically, Dollar fell the first months Trump was in office in 2017.
- Currently, USD/JPY FX:USDJPY is trading around a key area around 156.000 around the 4H 20 EMA. Bulls showed up on Friday.
Bulls reclaim 156.000 area of this 4H trading range:
- If dollar remains strong next week, we could see the USD/JPY continue to trade within this 4H range, which would confirm a failed breakout from this TR and put our next target on 158.000. Multiple ways to trade this, scale in if bulls strong on Monday for aggressive traders or wait to see to see consecutive 4H bull bars for entries.
-Valid fake outs often lead to aggressive moves in the opposite direction of the breakout as sellers may be trapped in a loosing trade leading to both bulls and bears buying.
DXY TVC:DXY bounced of the bullish trending line:
- The play for next week could be to see the dollar rally towards 110.000-110.500 area and see some potential reaction there, potentially some sideways trading before market decides its next move.
Remember to be careful on this, last week USD/JPY was a bear bar closing below its lower half which may be a sell signal for next week. Next week will be volatile for markets so I'd recommend lowering your trading size.
This is a C setup.
Peace,
GBP/USD: BOE Is Ready for the Big Cut!GBP/USD shows mixed signals, remaining below 1.2350, influenced by economic and political factors in both the UK and the US. After a strong rally on Monday, the pair lost momentum on Tuesday, driven by the recovery of the US Dollar and overall disappointing UK labor market data. The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and a slowdown in employment growth weigh on the Pound, despite an annual wage increase of 5.6%. From a technical perspective, the RSI on the 4-hour chart signals a loss of bullish momentum, approaching the neutral level of 50 after being in the overbought zone. Key support levels are located at 1.2230 and 1.2200, while resistances are seen at 1.2350.
The Pound is also affected by an uncertain macroeconomic context, with Trump's comments indicating potential tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, supporting a recovery in the Dollar due to its safe-haven status. In the absence of significant US economic data, investor focus shifts to stock market performance: a negative opening on Wall Street could support the Dollar, exerting additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. In the short term, the pair may remain under pressure, with a potential test of key support levels, unless more solid signs of Pound strength or Dollar weakness emerge.