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USDJPY

Levels discussed 30th September 30th September DXY: Price could retrace from 100.40 to 100.55 and possibly retest bearish trendline. But overall downtrend, with support at 100.20 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6345 SL 20 TP 45 AUDUSD: Sell 0.6955 SL 20 TP 50 GBPUSD: Sell 1.3355 SL 20 TP 50 EURUSD: Buy 1.1175 SL 20 TP 40 USDJPY: Sell 141.50 SL 50 TP 130 USDCHF: Buy at 0.8440 SL 20 TP 70 USDCAD: Buy 1.3545 SL 20 TP 50 Gold: Could consolidate between 2640-2652 range, If broken lower, could trade down to 2616.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY - one n only area, what's next??#USDJPY.. perfectly holding out major supporting area of the month n quarter as we told you in our last couple of ideas regarding USDJPY. Now market is just near to his one of the most important resistance of the week n today. That is 143.50 Keep close that area because it will be your key level in tomorrow and in overall move. If market hold it then again drop expected below that otherwise after that level market will leads you towards upside mentioned areas. Good luck Trade wisely
by AdilHussain731333
USDJPY → No upside potential. Prepare to fall!FX:USDJPY is facing a sell-off at the end of last week, which proves that the currency pair is not ready to go up. The dollar still continues to prepare for a breakout of 100.0. The currency pair is not able to approach the local highs, however, after the reduction of interest rates in the U.S. Japan refrained from any economic decisions regarding this issue. The pressure on the dollar has a corresponding effect on the currency pair. At the moment the price is facing a strong support at 141.74, from which a small correction to the liquidity or imbalance zone may follow, but with a high probability (technical and fundamental nuances) we may see a continuation of the fall. Resistance levels: 143.25, 144.0, 145.18 Support levels: 141.74, 139.5 In the short term, I expect a slight pullback followed by a continuation of the fall, breakdown of the key support and price decline to 139.5-138 Rate, share your opinion and questions, let's discuss what's going on with ★ FX:USDJPY ;) Regards R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
8
USDJPY Analysis for 30/09/2024: Potential Slightly Bullish BiasThe USDJPY pair is poised for a potential slight bullish bias on 30/09/2024, driven by key fundamental and technical factors. In this article, we'll explore the major elements influencing the USDJPY pair, including monetary policy, economic data releases, and broader market sentiment. Traders and investors on TradingView should consider these factors when positioning themselves in the market. Key Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias: 1. Federal Reserve Hawkish Tone: The Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance in recent weeks, signaling its commitment to keeping interest rates elevated to combat persistent inflation. The strong U.S. dollar has been supported by the Fed’s actions, and this policy direction is expected to continue today. With U.S. interest rates relatively higher compared to Japan’s negative or near-zero rates, the USDJPY pair is likely to experience upward momentum as traders seek yield differentials. 2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Stance: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no indication of raising rates in the near term. This divergence in monetary policy between the BOJ and the Fed remains a key driver of USDJPY bullishness. The BOJ has consistently kept rates low, supporting the Yen's weakness against stronger currencies like the USD. 3. Positive U.S. Economic Data: Recent U.S. economic data, such as strong retail sales and consumer sentiment, has painted a robust picture of the American economy. This has bolstered confidence in the dollar, making the USDJPY more attractive to traders. In contrast, Japan’s economic outlook has been more muted, adding to the pressure on the Yen. 4. Safe-Haven Demand Moderating: Global geopolitical tensions and fears of a recession have softened in recent days, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. The easing of these concerns has contributed to the Yen’s depreciation, while the dollar remains strong due to robust economic fundamentals. Technical Outlook for USDJPY: On the technical front, USDJPY has been trading within a well-defined upward channel. The 50-day moving average is trending higher, and the pair is currently testing key resistance levels around 149.50. A breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum. Additionally, momentum indicators such as the RSI are not yet overbought, suggesting room for additional gains before any potential pullback. Support Levels: 148.70, 148.00 Resistance Levels: 149.50, 150.00 Conclusion: Based on the current fundamental backdrop and technical indicators, USDJPY is expected to show a slight bullish bias today, 30/09/2024. Traders should watch for any new comments from Federal Reserve officials, as well as any geopolitical developments that could impact safe-haven flows. As the divergence between the Fed and BOJ's policies remains a dominant theme, this pair could continue to push higher in the near term.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY - Short Trade Idea This is a short trade idea on the USDJPY pair. Recently, we traded into a 4M and 11M BISI, had a nice reaction to a Premium Array, now we had a breakdown again. Because of the Japanese Central Bank's decision to increase interest rates, I am expecting price to take a further nose dive. I have 2 targets based on my profit-taking criteria. 1st is the swing low as a Discount Array, and 2nd/final target is a 2D BISI below some relative equal lows. Depending on where price closes today, I would be anticipating price to trade back up into a 2D iFVG that was a previous R2F signature BISI on the 2D timeframe. Safest stoploss before invalidating the trade is at the swing high before the sudden dump at Japan election news. Let's see! - R2F
Short
by Road_2_Funded
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 141.10 Why we like it: There is a pullback support that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 139.63 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 143.22 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Hedging Yen amid bullish Nikkei outlook? The Nikkei-225 is trading near 40,000 once more. The sharp decline in early August due to the BoJ rate hike has been swiftly reversed. The outlook for the Nikkei remains bullish with continued investor interest driven by market reforms as well as foreign investor interest. With the BoJ currently on pause and signalling no urgency to raise rates further, the Nikkei appears poised to retest its all-time high set in July. However, the significant influence of monetary policy on the Yen makes it advantageous to hedge a Nikkei position with a long Yen position. This approach offers similar upside potential while reducing downside risk. BOJ ON HOLD FOLLOWING FALLOUT FROM RATE HIKE The BoJ decided to maintain rates at 0.25% during its September 20 meeting. Their statement indicated that the economy is on a recovery path aligned with the BoJ's mandate, upgrading its assessment of consumption from a "resilient trend" in July to a "moderate increasing trend." Governor Ueda noted that the recent yen strengthening is reducing inflationary pressures, signalling positive trends for the economy in line with the BoJ's mandate. During the September 20 meeting, he reiterated that the BoJ would not raise rates amid market instability, which they attribute to recession risks in the U.S. This cautious approach likely results from the fallout after the BoJ raised rates to a 15-year high at its July 31 meeting. This decision triggered a sharp yen appreciation and a significant unwind of the yen carry trade, leading to a global decline in equities fuelled by fear. The Nikkei-225 dropped over 20% in the following week, erasing all gains made in 2024. MARKET STABILITY ANOTHER CONCERN FOR BOJ The BoJ's policy mandate focuses on achieving sustainable economic growth through wage growth and consumption while maintaining a stable 2% inflation rate. Under Governor Ueda's leadership, the BoJ aims for a neutral policy rate that is neither overly restrictive nor too accommodative, indicating that rates must increase from their current excessively loose levels. However, following the market reaction to the July 31 policy meeting, the BoJ faces an additional mandate: balancing its monetary policy trajectory with the risks of market volatility and its effects on business stability. This additional mandate introduces a complex variable into the BoJ’s monetary policy balancing act, making it prudent for the BoJ to wait and assess the effects of policy changes. As Governor Ueda stated during the policy announcement, "We can afford to spend some time in making a policy decision." The BoJ has two remaining policy meetings scheduled for 2024: October 30 and December 18. Following Governor Ueda's recent statement highlighting risks from market volatility, analysts unanimously agreed that September policy meeting would not result in a hike but majority still expect another hike by the end of the year. With the recent encouraging inflation prints, BoJ has room to hike rates towards the end of the year. PAUSE RATHER THAN HALT The decision to maintain rates may signal a pause rather than a halt to rate hikes. Governor Ueda indicated in an August parliamentary hearing that the BoJ would continue to raise rates if economic data aligns with expectations. With inflation around the target range, BoJ has room to raise rates further. Additionally, the recent election concluded with Shigeru Ishiba becoming the next Prime Minister. The former defense minister has backed the BoJ's rate hike strategy and expressed concerns about yen depreciation. His leadership may foster political support for further rate increases in Japan. Finally, recession fears in the US are subsiding with recent jobs data and GDP figures above expectations. This may help ease market instability concerns for the BoJ. JAPAN EQUITIES REMAIN COMPELLING, ATTRACTING INFLOWS Japan equities remain compelling for foreign investors. The TSE’s recent market reforms have led to a material improvement in the firm’s balance sheets with higher utilization of capital in the form of both returns to shareholders and capital expenditure. Furthermore, Japan equities remains undervalued despite the massive improvement in valuations this year. While, the P/B ratio for Nikkei-225 has increased from 1.75 to 1.93 over the past year, the P/E ratio has remained largely unchanged at 20.88 (compared to 19.38 last year). The much unchanged P/E ratio reflects the strong earnings growth despite the 23% rally in the index. The potential undervaluation has attracted global value investors including Warren Buffet. Warren Buffet has built up large positions in Japanese trading houses with the value totalling nearly USD 25 billion as of 12/June. Buffet has previously opted to increase stakes in these investments when they traded at P/E similar to the level during the downturn in August. Furthermore, YTD inflows into Nomura Nikkei 225 Fund (NTETF) have totalled USD 891 million. While the fund is only available OTC in the US, it is one of the largest Japan equity ETF with USD 71 billion in AUM. Notably, inflows into the ETF have been concentrated after large declines this year suggesting investors are using decline in price to increase positions. CHINA STIMULUS ADDS FURTHER WIND IN NIKKEI SAILS The announcement of the massive stimulus package in China last week has supported most Asian equity markets with the rising tide of Chinese equities rippling through Japanese equities. As the positive sentiment in China continues, other Asian indices are likely to benefit too. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The Nikkei-225 is supported by strong tailwinds including market reforms that support foreign investment and a positive sentiment in Asia equities. However, given the market reaction to the previous BoJ rate hike, monetary policy and Yen moves remain a pertinent concern for the Nikkei. Nikkei and Yen are inversely correlated. The correlation is particularly tight during periods of Nikkei decline. With the Yen remaining volatile from the impact of monetary policy, hedging a long position in Nikkei-225 with a long position in the JPYUSD is prudent. A combined position of being long on both the Nikkei-225 and the Yen has delivered similar gains to a long position in the Nikkei-225 over the past three months. However, the combined position has also offered crucial downside protection, outperforming during periods of market decline. The Yen remains on an uptrend, supported by both a weakening dollar from Fed rate cuts and a strengthening yen from BoJ rate hikes. A position consisting of long CME Nikkei (USD) futures can be combined with a position consisting of 2 x long CME Japanese Yen futures to roughly balance notional across both legs. Investors can also deploy 21 x long CME Micro JPY/USD futures to balance notional more closely. CME provides margin offset amounting to 35% as of 27/Sept for this trade which reduces margin requirements from USD 18,720 to USD 12,168. A hypothetical trade setup consisting of long 1 x CME Nikkei (USD) December futures and long 21 x CME Micro JPY/USD December futures offering reward to risk ratio of 1.43x is provided below. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:NKD1!Long
by mintdotfinance
7
USDJPY H1 | Bearish Drop Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 143.13, which is an overlap resistance. Our take profit will be at 140.86, an overlap support level close to 161.8% Fibo extension The stop loss will be placed at 145.03, which is a pullback resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
USDJPY Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Short
by ShahedZare
USDJPY - Testing Support Level, Potential for a ReboundUSDJPY has arrived at a significant support zone and is currently retesting this level. While the support seems to be holding for now, the market sentiment still appears cautious. If we see further confirmation of a bounce, such as bullish candlestick patterns or increasing volume, there could be potential for upward movement. However, it's important to monitor the price action closely, as a breakdown below this level could invalidate the bullish outlook.
Long
by WaveRiders2
2
USDJPY Approaching Breakout: Will it Reach 147.21 or Pull Back?2H Chart Current Price: 144.252 After analyzing USD/JPY on the 2-hour chart, the price has broken through the major support and resistance level at 143.750. It is now approaching the upper boundary of a falling wedge, marked as the Breakout and Reversal line. We anticipate that this line could act as a barrier and potentially reverse the price if the bullish momentum isn’t strong enough. After reaching the breakout line, the price may pull back to consolidate strength before breaking through, leading it toward our price target of 147.217. On the 2-hour chart, the price is trading above all moving averages, and the RSI is currently at 65.12. On the other hand, if the price breaks through the support at 142.44, we expect it could decline further, potentially reaching 139.57.
Long
by SpicyPips
1
Usdjpy could be seeing a turn ,mindful of spikes on monday Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post. Chart wise it seems to be heading more to the downside resuming its downtrend.the friday's move was due to the election in japan. Now that the result is out, let's see how the market react on monday. Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place. Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! -- ********************************************************************* Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. *********************************************************************
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
Japanese yen soars as Tokyo Core CPI falls to 2%The Japanese yen is sharply higher on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 143.49 in the European session, down a massive 1.1%. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, slowed to 2% in September, down from 2's.4% in August and matching the market estimate. The drop was largely driven by the resumption of government subsidies for utility bills. The inflation reading indicates that Japan is on track to hit the Bank of Japan’s target of sustainable 2% inflation and the yen has responded with sharp gains today. This reading will support the case for further rate hikes, although that’s unlikely until December or early next year. Governor Ueda said this week that the BoJ is not in any rush to hike rates and that the focus will be on services prices data for October, which won’t be released until November, too late for the October 31 meeting. Wages have been rising but it remains to be seen if this will translate into higher services inflation. If it does, there will be pressure on the BoJ to raise rates at the December meeting. The week wraps up with US Core PCE Price Index, which is considered the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The index has hovered at 2.6% for the past three months and is expected to tick up to 2.7% for August. Monthly, the Core PCE is expected to remain at 0.2%. An unexpected reading could shake up the US dollar and the rate-cut odds for the Fed’s November meeting. The odds of a 50-basis point cut have slipped to 47%, down from 54% a day earlier, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. USD/JPY faces weekly resistance lines at 147.58 and 150.66 There is support at 142.67 and 140.84
by OANDA
End of the week analysis27th September DXY: Price could trade higher to retest 100.90, if bearish trendline held, could trade back down to 100.55 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6290 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6905 SL 15 TP 50 GBPUSD: Sell 1.3290 SL 25 TP 75 (if support holds) Buy 1.3345 SL 30 TP 80 EURUSD: Sell 1.1090 SL 25 TP 80 USDJPY: Could range 143 to 144.50, Buy 145 SL 50 TP 200 USDCHF: Nothing for now USDCAD: Sell 1.3480 SL 25 TP 60 Gold: Could retrace down to 2640-2652 range, look for reaction there.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
The USDJPY correction is coming to an end H4 26.09.2024The USDJPY correction is coming to an end The yen is now forming a correction and the price has hit the marginal resistance zone around 145. From it I expect a bounce down to test the lower boundaries. Also, there was a rotation in the area of the zone in the past and periodically rebounds were made. Therefore, there is a probability that this time they will be able to bounce down at least locally. I don't see the options falling further than 139, but I aim for 140 approximately. OANDA:USDJPY
Short
by KovachTrader
2
Bearish reeversal?USD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which is an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which acts as an overlap support. Pivot: 145.97 1st Support: 144.28 1st Resistance: 147.63 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Weak Yen and Anticipation of US GDP!USD/JPY is receiving particular attention due to the weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY), influenced by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will delay further rate hikes. The minutes of the BoJ’s July monetary policy meeting revealed a consensus among members on the need to remain vigilant regarding inflation risks. While some members indicated that a rate hike to 0.25% might be appropriate, others suggested a moderate adjustment to monetary support. From a macroeconomic perspective, traders are focused on the release of the annualized US GDP for the second quarter, scheduled for Thursday. The dollar's performance is being hindered by the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is about a 50% chance that the Fed will reduce rates by 75 basis points, bringing them to the 4.0-4.25% range. In terms of resistance, the level of 149.40, the highest in the past six weeks, represents a potential target for the USD/JPY rally. On the support side, the first significant level is around 144.00, which coincides with the upper boundary of the previous descending channel. A break below this level could restore the bearish bias, with the next target around 139.58, the lowest point since June 2023.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1