USDJPY BUY OPPORTUNITY AT FOMC NIGHTUSDJPY BUY OPPORTUNITY AT FOMC NIGHT
The inside bar breakthrough upward, and form a
demand zone at 4H.
Therefore, tend to buy USDJPY around 140.8 at FOMC night
SL: Below 139.53
TP1: 143.72
TP2: 145.6
USDJPY
JPY Futures Drop as Fed Rate Cut Speculation GrowsJPY futures have fallen below the 0.007134 level, driven by rising speculation of significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. As market participants brace for potential monetary easing, the U.S. dollar has faced increased pressure, leading to weakness across several pairs, including JPY. Investors expect the Fed to reduce interest rates by up to 100 basis points by the end of the year, which has become a key factor influencing the broader currency market.
Key Market Dynamics: Fed and BoJ Rate Expectations
The growing belief that the Federal Reserve will pursue aggressive rate cuts has been weighing heavily on the U.S. dollar, with many anticipating a softer policy stance in response to slowing economic growth and inflation concerns. This dovish outlook has provided some support for the yen, even as Japan’s economic conditions remain stable.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to maintain its interest rates steady at 0.25% when it meets on Friday. While the BoJ has been cautious with rate adjustments, keeping its ultra-low rate policy in place, the potential disparity between the Fed’s and BoJ’s stances could further impact JPY futures in the coming days.
Technical Outlook: Rebound from Supply Area Signals Bearish Sentiment
From a technical perspective, JPY futures have rebounded off a key supply area, a zone that has previously acted as resistance. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report paints a divided picture, with retail traders showing extreme bullishness on the yen, suggesting expectations of further strength. However, institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” remain strongly bearish on the currency, signaling their belief that the recent uptick may be short-lived.
This divergence in sentiment provides a clear opportunity for a short position, as the bearish outlook from institutional players suggests that the yen could face downward pressure once the initial bullish momentum subsides.
Looking Ahead: Short Position Setup
Given the current technical setup and the wider macroeconomic backdrop, we are positioning for a short trade on JPY futures. With the price having already bounced off a significant supply area and smart money positioning heavily on the bearish side, a reversal looks increasingly likely. Furthermore, if the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts materialize, the U.S. dollar could stabilize or even rebound, adding further downside pressure to JPY futures.
In the meantime, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's respective decisions, as they will be the critical drivers of yen movement in the short term.
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USD/JPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are targeting the 140.702 level area with our short trade on USD/JPY which is based on the fact that the pair is overbought on the BB band scale and is also approaching a resistance line above thus going us a good entry option.
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Pre FOMC Rates Decision Analysis18th September
DXY: Consolidate around 100.90, (if 50bps cut) needs to break 100.60 to trade down to 100 round number support. (if 25bps cut) bounce from 100.60 to bearish trendline
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6220 SL 25 TP 75 (DXY weakness)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6780 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY weakness)
GBPUSD: Look for test and reject of resistance area, Sell 1.32 SL 30 TP 80 (DXY strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.1150 SL 25 TP 50 OR Sell 1.1110 SL 20 TP 50 (Straddle)
USDJPY: Buy 142.80 SL 50 TP 150 (DXY strength)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 45 (DXY weakness)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 30 TP 60 (DXY weakness)
Gold: Could range between 2570 and 2590, Looking for a test of 2600 and possible correction lower
Live Trading Recap: USD/JPY Correction Phase TradeThis is a live execution of USD/JPY trade, demonstrating how to successfully execute a counter-trend strategy. This trade was all about understanding the market phases and recognizing the trend reversal at the right moment.
To pull off a counter-trend trade, you need more than just technical skills—you need a solid grasp of trading psychology. Staying patient, trusting your analysis, and managing emotions during market swings are key to making informed decisions.
Watch the video to see how I combined these elements to turn this trade into a win. Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Gold Analysis: Waiting for the Fed!Gold prices attracted buying after a brief overnight corrective drop, finding support due to expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed. This limits the attempted recovery of the US Dollar (USD) and supports the precious metal, although buyers seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of key central bank events. Immediate resistance is at the all-time high of $2,590, with a test of the psychological level of $2,600 if surpassed. Acceptance above this level could open the door to the next target of $2,650. On the other hand, if the Fed disappoints market expectations for a more accommodative stance, gold could face a fresh wave of selling. In that case, the price could drop towards $2,532 and $2,500. The Fed's decision on Wednesday represents a crucial point for the future direction of gold. Markets currently estimate a 65% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, and the weakness of the US Dollar could continue to provide fundamental support for gold. However, if the Fed opts for a more moderate 25 basis point cut, the dollar could see an immediate upward reaction. More important than the decision itself will be the Fed’s communication, including Jerome Powell's words and the Dot Plot, which will provide guidance on future policy.
USDJPY Technical Analysis and Trade Idea
👀👉 The USDJPY pair has been experiencing downward pressure recently. While there may be a potential selling opportunity, it would be prudent to wait for the FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve rate cut announcement later today before making any trading decisions.
If the data release outcome suggests a weakening US dollar, it could present a favorable opportunity to sell the USD/JPY pair. Conversely, if the data supports USD strength, it might be wise to abandon the trade idea altogether, as taking a counter-trend position could be risky.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on current market conditions and available information. Forex trading carries significant risk, and market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 📉✅
USD/JPY Price Analysis (1H)The price of USD/JPY is currently approaching a support level and could be setting up for a pullback. If it bounces off this support, we could see a potential upward move. However, if the support is broken, the next target could be the next support level
Key scenarios to watch:
If the price bounces back from the support, it may signal a reversal.
If the price breaks out below the support, it could move toward the next support level.
Let’s monitor closely and see how it develops!
Bullish reversal?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 140.92
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 139.83
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 142.72
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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Why Now is the Time to Go Long on USDJPY: A Trader’s PerspectiveCurrent Fundamentals:
-Diverging monetary policies: The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, while the Bank of Japan continues its ultra-loose policy.
-Economic growth disparity: The US economy shows resilience, outpacing Japan's growth rate.
-Interest rate differentials: Higher US yields attract capital flows, strengthening the dollar against the yen.
I'm employing probability-based analysis to enter long positions in USD/JPY.
Let's discuss what's going on with USDJPY!
12M:
2W:
1H:
USD/JPY rebounds after US retail sales beats estimateThe Japanese yen is down sharply on Tuesday. USD/JPY is up 0.73% today, trading at 141.64 in the North American session at the time of writing. On Monday, the yen pushed below 140 per dollar for the first time since July 2023.
The yen has looked razor sharp, gaining 2.9% in the month of September alone. The yen has surged a massive 15% in the third quarter, the best-performing G-10 currency. The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points on Wednesday. The Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday, is expected to keep rates on hold. The BoJ has been an outlier among the major central banks and is expected to continue tightening, which has boosted the yen. The BoJ has signaled that further rate hikes are coming and this could occur as soon as December.
In the US, today’s retail sales release was the final key event ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Retail sales softened in August but the decline wasn’t as sharp as expected. Monthly, retail sales posted a small gain of 0.1% in August, down from a revised 1.1% in July but still better than the market estimate of -0.2%. On an annualized basis, retail sales eased to 2.1%, down from 2.9% in July and just below the forecast of 2.2%.
The retail sales release is not expected to impact the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. The rate cut odds for a half-point cut stand at 67% according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, unchanged by the retail sales release.
USD/JPY pushed above 141.17 earlier and is testing resistance at 141.72
There is support at 140.37 and 139.82
Usdjpy 1:3 risk reward ratio done i share this idea in previous.Usdjpy 1:3 risk reward ratio done i share this idea in previous. i take a trade in this pair and booked some profit
i didn't reccomend any to take my trade because if my analyze goes in my favour then people like and if my TRADE IDEA GO AGAINST then some people say - if you don't know hoe to trade then why you post it , that's why i'm not going to share any trade that anyone can enter on trade and blame me .....
#Usdjpy trade Idea , i'm looking for long if price go upUsdjpy trade Idea , i'm looking for long if price go up to the resistance level and retest as a support
this is only trade idea. market isn't sure 100% as you know
Levels discussed on livestream 17th September 17th September
DXY: Ranging between 100.60 and 100.90
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6220 SL 25 TP 50 (Hesitation at 0.6245)
AUDUSD: Buy 0.6740 SL 20 TP 40
GBPUSD: Look for test and reject of resistance area, Sell 1.32 SL 30 TP 80 (COUNTER TREND)
EURUSD: Buy 1.1145 SL 20 TP 55
USDJPY: (IHS) Buy 141.55 SL 60 TP 180
Trend Following: Sell 140.10 SL 30 TP 70
USDCHF: Sell 0.8420 SL 30 TP 45
USDCAD: Ranging 1.3565 and 1.36
Gold: Currently at 2584, could trade higher to 2600
USD/JPY- Correction Phase with Potential TargetsThe main trend for USD/JPY is down, but the price is currently in a correction. We expect the secondary trend to continue. In the H1 timeframe, the wave structure suggests a higher high is likely.
Target areas:
T1: 141.64
T2: 142.28
H4 Target: 143.04
Stop Loss: 140.30
USDJPY H4 | Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just bounced off our buy entry at 140.36, which is an overlap support close to the 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 141.41, which is an overlap resistance level close to the 50% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 139.60, which is a swing low support level.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
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USDJPY - no sign of turning around at the moment💵USDJPY ANALYSIS 💸
- The Yen is still recovering very strongly since the USD/JPY pair fell to its lowest level in nearly 40 years at 141.95.
- The recovery is mainly supported by many interventions of the Japanese Government. Especially the support from the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States.
- The market is expecting the Fed to cut interest rates on Wednesday, while the BOJ will likely keep the current interest rate unchanged.
📌 TECHNICAL
- On the daily candlestick chart of USDJPY (D1), the downtrend from the price channel (a) continues and the pressure from Ema21 acts as the main resistance.
- USD/JPY has shown little reaction to the 0.382% Fibonacci extension level for now, which could be considered as the nearest technical support.
- Once USD/JPY is sold below 139.420, it will have a more bearish outlook towards 137.046 in the short term, which is the price point of the 0.50% Fibonacci extension level.
- As long as USD/JPY remains within the price channel (a) and below the 21-day EMA, the bearish bias will remain dominant, and the notable technical points for the bearish trend are listed below.
✔️ Support: 139.420 – 137.046
✔️ Resistance: 141.531 – 142.380
EUR/USD Rally: Weak Fed, Cautious ECBThe EUR/USD pair broke above the 1.1100 level due to weakness in the US dollar, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Fed. The Dollar Index (DXY) is declining, while US and German yields have dropped. The ECB, on the other hand, has shown caution regarding future rate cuts, supporting the euro. Key resistance levels for EUR/USD are 1.1137, 1.1155, 1.1201, and 1.1275. Support lies at 1.1071, with further levels at 1.1030 and 1.1001. The RSI is near 67, suggesting a potential overbought area, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as the price stays above the 200-day moving average. If the dollar continues to weaken, EUR/USD could target 1.1155 and beyond. Conversely, a break below 1.1071 could indicate a correction toward 1.1030 and 1.1001.
USD /JPY "GOPHER" Bank Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHola ola My Dear,
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USDJPY Technical Analysis 16/09/2024The USDJPY is giving bullish signals across different timeframes. Prices have dropped to the demand zone on the weekly chart.
At this point, the trend is no longer your friend because it has entered the "Trend Exhaustion" phase.
There is a broad RSI bullish divergence on the daily chart, supporting a potential rise.
On the 4-hour chart, a Stochastic bullish crossover has formed in the oversold zone.
Prices are likely to consolidate until the release of this week’s core retail sales report, but we are at a favorable level to begin gradual buying.
USDJPY / Bearish trend toward 138.470USDJPY Analyze
The overall trend remains bearish as long as the price stays below 141.020, with downside targets at 138.470 and potentially 137.450.
A corrective move toward the pivot line at 141.028 is possible before the bearish trend resumes. However, if the price stabilizes above 142.100 with a 4-hour candle close, a bullish move of 141.030 extends toward 143.680.
In general, if the CPI is released as expected around 2.5%, this would support a bearish trend for USD/JPY.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 140.230
Resistance Levels: 141.02, 142.10, 142.55
Support Levels: 138.470, 137.440, 136.500
Expected Range: 141.020 - 138.460
Trend: Bearish while below 141.03
previous idea:
UJ SELL idea update - STILL LOWER POSSIBLE Weekly Wave + SMC In this extension of the original UJ Sell idea with Targets below, we back out to a weekly and look at a possible Running Flat (for Wave Traders) - we go over symmetry in the markets and aggressive corrections on weekly.
Doc will show analysis for confluence and how we have targets still lower. Maybe don't 'buy the bottom yet'!!
Finally a good example of lower timeframe trendline failure and how to avoid 'getting COOKED'
Your trend is heading into a higher TF "BLOCKER" - its like a small car driving up to and then sitting on a train track.. you will get CRUSHED.
Like and Boost this idea if you get anything from it and want me to do more of these!
Happy Trading
-- Doc
Levels discussed on Livestream 16th September 16th September
DXY: Look to trade slightly lower to 100.55 support, should stay below 101 to maintain bearish
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6150 SL 15 TP 75 (Hesitation at 0.6110)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.67 SL 30 TP 60
GBPUSD: Buy 1.32 SL 20 TP 60
EURUSD: Buy 1.1145 SL 20 TP 55
USDJPY: Sell 139 SL 50 TP 100
USDCHF: Sell 0.8430 SL 40 TP 80 (Hesitation at 0.84)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 20 TP 70
Gold: Needs to stay above 2570 to climb and test 2600 ATH round number resistance level
