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USDJPY

USDJPY - Retesting the lowThe USD/JPY currency pair has shown a significant downward trend since mid-January 2025, falling from peaks around 158.50 to current levels near 151.77. The price action has been characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, with notable resistance forming around the 156.00 level during late January and early February. The technical analysis suggests further bearish momentum, with a red arrow indicating a potential continuation of the downward movement toward the 150.89 support level. This bearish outlook is reinforced by the pair's inability to maintain gains above 155.00 in recent trading sessions, and the current price structure shows limited signs of reversal potential in the near term.
Short
by financialflagship
Yen Dips After Strong Japan GDP DataThe Japanese yen slipped to around 151.8 per dollar, reversing a three-day rally as the dollar gained strength after Fed officials signaled reluctance to cut rates due to inflation concerns. Japan’s Q4 GDP grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, up from 0.4% and beating the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.8%, aligning with expectations and improving from 1.7% in Q3. These figures support a more hawkish outlook for the Bank of Japan, though uncertainty remains over a potential rate hike in March, with further increases expected later this year. Technically, resistance is at 154.90, with further levels at 156.00 and 157.00. Support stands at 151.25, followed by 149.20 and 147.10.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 18, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) attracted some sellers during Tuesday's Asian session, which, along with a slight rise in the US dollar (USD), helped the USD/JPY pair to stage a modest recovery from the 151.250 area or more than a one-week low. Investors welcomed US President Donald Trump's delay in imposing retaliatory tariffs. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven yen. However, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid rising bets for an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), helped by the release of robust Q4 Japanese GDP data on Monday. Meanwhile, the BoJ's hawkish expectations have led to a significant rise in Japanese government bond yields to multi-year highs. In addition, the recent decline in U.S. Treasury yields, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), has narrowed the differential between U.S. and Japanese rates. This may further deter traders from aggressive bearish bets on the lower-yielding yen. Thus, it would be prudent to wait for strong buying before confirming that the USD/JPY pair has bottomed and positioning for further recovery. Trading recommendation: BUY 152.000, SL 151.300, TP 153.100
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY Approaches 152.00 Amid Yen Weakness and Trade War FearsThe USD/JPY exchange rate is recovering from recent lows, reaching 151.90 on February 10, 2025, compared to the previous close of 151.30. After a significant drop in early February, the trend shows a gradual rebound, supported by the Japanese Yen’s weakness due to disappointing macroeconomic data, particularly the sharp decline in Japan’s current account balance to 1,077.3 billion Yen from November’s 3,352.5 billion Yen. The strength of the US Dollar is also fueled by concerns over new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum announced by President Trump, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like the Greenback. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is nearing the psychological level of 152.00, with key resistance between 152.40 and 152.90. A breakout above this range could signal further gains, while a rejection may trigger a corrective phase. Volatility is heightened by uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy, as it may maintain a cautious stance on rates to counter inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, speculation about a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could reduce the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. The Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 108.20, slightly up by 0.1% but down from the intraday high of 108.50, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Traders will closely watch his statements for any hints of a policy shift.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/AUD: Weekly Engulfing Bar Pullback!The recent performance of the EUR/AUD exchange rate shows a fluctuating trend, with a slight recovery, closing at approximately 1.6450 in the first week of February. In the preceding days, the rate experienced several declines, with a significant drop. These fluctuations reflect the economic dynamics of both the Eurozone and Australia. In the Eurozone, inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.5% in January, exceeding the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the third consecutive month. Despite this, the ECB plans to continue cutting interest rates, expecting inflation to reach its 2% target over the year. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy showed no growth in the last quarter of 2024, with contractions in Germany and France and stagnation in Italy. In Australia, the leading economic indicators index increased by 0.2% in October 2024, suggesting a slight economic recovery. However, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed a worsening fiscal deficit, projected to rise by AUD 21.8 billion over the next four years, mainly due to unavoidable expenditures. These economic developments impact the EUR/AUD exchange rate, with the Euro benefiting from a more accommodative monetary policy while Australia faces fiscal challenges. Despite the recent upward movement, the negative trends from previous sessions and technical analysis suggest caution is warranted when assessing the short-term trajectory of the EUR/AUD exchange rate.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Technical analysis of USD/JPY trend, downside risks may increaseHi traders, Recently, Japan released a strong GDP data, showing the resilience of Japan's economic recovery and increasing market expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. The strong GDP data not only boosted the short-term trend of the yen, but also consolidated the market's confidence in the fundamentals of the Japanese economy. In addition, the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan is gradually narrowing, further boosting demand for the yen. At the same time, the US dollar is generally dragged down by market selling sentiment, and the USD/JPY exchange rate is currently hovering around the 151.80 area, and even hit a nearly 5-day low during the Asian trading session on Monday (February 17). Although the market is concerned that the reciprocal tariff policy implemented by US President Trump may have a certain impact on market sentiment, the overall fundamentals still favor yen bulls. However, although there are bullish factors for the yen on the fundamentals, the US dollar also has some positive support, and the current market is at a critical node where long and short forces are intertwined. Technical analyst interpretation: From a technical point of view, USD/JPY is currently in a key area of ​​long and short game. The current exchange rate fluctuates around 151.80, and the market shows a volatile consolidation trend in the short term, but the overall downward pressure is still obvious. From the support level, the 151.45-151.40 area is regarded as the first key support in the near future. This range is not only a continuation of the previous low, but also has a strong psychological support effect. If the support strength in this area is insufficient, the market is likely to further drop to the 150.95-150.90 area, which is the low area touched at the beginning of this month. In terms of technical graphics, both the daily and 4-hour charts show that after stabilizing near this area many times, there have been repeated declines, indicating that the short-selling force still has the upper hand. Further observing the oscillator indicators, many oscillator indicators on the daily chart remain in the negative range, showing that the overall selling momentum of the market continues. Although there was a short-term buying when the price approached the support, it failed to form an effective absorption, but the downward trend continued. If the support level is continued to be broken, follow-up selling may trigger a short chain reaction, pushing the exchange rate to a lower area quickly. From the perspective of the target, if the price breaks through the 151.45-151.40 area, the next target will be the 150.95-150.90 area, and then the decline may extend to the important psychological level of 150.00, and then test the 149.60-149.55 area, the 149.00 integer, and the 148.65 area near the swing low in December 2024. The distribution of key lows shows that the market has a clear downward path, and the short-selling force is expected to further lower the exchange rate with the loss of key support levels. On the upside, if the USD/JPY tries to rebound and break through the 152.00 level, it will face obvious resistance. The primary resistance is in the 152.70 area, which is exactly where the 200-day moving average is located, and the long-term moving average often has a strong interception effect. Following closely is the 100-day moving average, which is currently roughly in the 153.15 area. Once this moving average is effectively broken, the market may see short-covering, driving a rapid rebound in the exchange rate in the short term. The rebound trend is expected to push USD/JPY above the 154.00 mark and further impact 154.45-154.50, and may eventually test the 154.75-154.80 area near last week's swing high. Overall, USD/JPY is currently at a critical watershed in the battle between longs and shorts from a technical perspective. The current shock consolidation combined with negative oscillator indicators shows obvious downside risks; once the key support level is lost, the short trend may expand rapidly, catalyzing the market into a deep adjustment phase. On the contrary, if the upper resistance can be broken in the short term, it is expected to trigger short-covering and form a short-term rebound. Mr. Baker
Short
by Beck_Ledley
2
USD/JPY H4 | Rising into resistanceUSD/JPY is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 152.42 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 153.10 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance and the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance. Take profit is at 151.23 which is a multi-swing-low support. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
1
USD/JPY Falls from 154.80 – Is 146 the Next Target?In my post last week about USD/JPY, I mentioned that the pair could resume its decline and draw attention to the 154+ sell zone. Indeed, USD/JPY started falling after reaching 154.80 and is now trading at 151.72, which is very close to a key horizontal support level. Looking ahead, I expect this support to break, pushing the pair below 150 and potentially down to the next horizontal support around 146. In conclusion, my strategy remains unchanged: I will continue looking to sell rallies, with invalidation above last week’s high. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
Bullish bounce off pullback support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 151.12 1st Support: 149.37 1st Resistance: 154.33 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
Potential bullish bounce?USD/JPY is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that line sup with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 151.90 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 151.08 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that is slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Take profit: 153.71 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets