USDJPY Long Trade PossibilityUSDJPY Long Trade Possibility! Trade with care as always! Looking For A Small Up Move Before The Market Decides To Reverse!
A Decent/tight SL of Around 109.25 Levels and a TP of Around 109.60 Levels will be just perfect.
Usdjpy1hr
USDJPY Short Term Counter Trend = Buying Opportunity Hi Everyone
I am new to Forex as well as on TradingView Forum but today I want to share my view on the Daily, 4H and 1H TF charts for the community.
From the Daily and 4H charts of USDJPY, we may see that the Major Long term trend in USDJPY is Bearish. However, it has entered a short term correction phase,so we can exploit it with tight money management rules.
On the 1Hour chart, the price is trending within a channel and also it is above the Kumo Cloud. We can also see a Cloud Twist on 1H chart which is signaling a Bullish Future Cloud.
.
Currently, it is trading around 38.2% of Fib ratio and we can expect further upside upto next Fib ratio which is 5%.
1H Chart
www.tradingview.com
4H Chart
www.tradingview.com
Daily Chart
www.tradingview.com
I would appreciate to listen your view and comments on the above analysis.
USD/JPY drops to 111.30USD/JPY drops to 111.30
Due to fears of a large reduction in foreign Dollar asset purchases, the American currency fell by 0.86% against the Yen just in couple of hours. The plunge was stopped only after the exchange rate reached support area located around the weekly S2 and the monthly S1. Accordingly, today bulls are expected to try to restore lost positions. Most probably the surge will last until the pair reaches strong support-turned-resistance at the 112.10 level, which is additionally backed up by the 55-hour SMA. In case of better than expected US PPI data release, the soar might extend to the 112.60 mark, which represents location of the monthly PP together with the 100- and 200-hour SMAs. From the opposite side, the new decline is likely to be halted by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 111.17 the three-month low at 110.84.
USD/JPY tries to break from triangle USD/JPY tries to break from triangle
Despite release of mostly negative employment data on Friday, the currency exchange rate managed to break through 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 113.00 and the upper-boundary of one-month long symmetrical triangle. As the pair has crossed already most of the technical indicators, the surge is expected to conitnue. On the other hand, in order to continue moving towards the weekly R1, the rate needs to break through the upper trend-line of a larger symmetrical triangle. In smaller perspective this pattern might halt the soar of the buck. However, in monthly perspective, it is still expected to continue heading upwards, thus trying to reach the boundayr of a one-year long dominant descending channel.
USD/JPY moves between two SMAsUSD/JPY moves between two SMAs
In the end of the previous week the currency exchange rate made a breakout from the rising wedge formation. However, because of a decreased liquidity that was caused by Christmas holidays it failed to make a rebound from the lower trend-line of a junior ascending channel. At the moment, it is moving horizontally being squeezed between the 55- and 100-hour SMAs. As there are no important data releases scheduled today, such steady movement is expected to continue. In larger perspective the pair might slip back to the weekly PP because of existence of an alleged resistance zone located near the 113.35 and 113.40 marks. However, there is a need to take into account that almost 56% of pending orders in 100-pip range are set to buy.
USD/JPY tests resistance zone near 113.10USD/JPY tests resistance zone near 113.10
In the middle of previous trading session, the currency exchange rate made a confident breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern. In accordance with expectations, the surge was stopped in resistance zone formed by the 200-hour SMA and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 113.00. An allocation of pending orders suggests that markets are eager to see further appreciation of the Dollar against Yen. A successful vote on tax bill later this day theoretically might throw the rate straight to the weekly R1 at 113.57. However, until that the currency pair is expected to continue slowly climbing to the top in a little rising wedge formation. By the way, if assumption about this pattern is correct, then the rate might plunge back to support zone located around the monthly PP at 112.70.
USD/JPY rises to 112.70USD/JPY rises to 112.70
An absence of any significant news in first half of the previous trading session expectedly led to a rebound from support zone located near the 112.10 mark. But then reports about agreement reached on tax reform by the House and Senate caused a spike up to the 112.70 mark. As further path to the north is obstructed by the falling 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP, the Dollar is unlikely to gain much value against the Yen. On the other hand, the 55-hour SMA in conjunction with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level should allow an active plunge as well. As a result, before the advent of some substantial news, the pair is expected to move horizontally between the above support and resistance barriers.
USD/JPY falls to 50% Fibo at 112.45USD/JPY falls to 50% Fibo at 112.45
Due to interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the currency exchange rate got a downside momentum, which lasted until the pair reached the last combined support level formed by the weekly S1 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 112.45. A successful recovery of the buck looks unlikely, as the rate will need to cross a combination of the weekly PP, the 200-hour SMA and another 50% retracement level near the 113.00 mark. In addition to that, the northern side is strengthened by the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. From the opposite direction, the pair, in contrast, faces no notable support levels up until the 112.10 mark. In support of this assumption, majority in pending orders in 100-pip range are set to sell.
USD/JPY fails to bypass 113.68USD/JPY fails to bypass 113.68
Most of the previous trading session the currency rate spent moving towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level located at 114.03. Nevertheless, this target was not achieved due to resistance area formed near the 113.70 mark. As for today, a minor retreat back to 113.20 is possible. However, the Yen unlikely to gain much value due to pressure from the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. On the other hand, it looks like the pair is moving in a new rising wedge formation, which presupposes a breakout towards the 50% retracement level. In case of such mixed signals there is a need to turn to the overall fundamental picture, which is in favor of the buck, as markets anticipate the interest rate hike.
USD/JPY heads towards 112.70 as expected USD/JPY heads towards 112.70 as expected
As it was forecasted yesterday, after making a rebound from combined support set up by the weekly PP, the 200-hour SMA and the lower trend-line of a new junior descending channel the pair started moving in the opposite direction and even managed to bypass two other moving averages. The surge happened despite release of negative employment data, which means that markets are mainly focused on situation related to tax reform and the US government shutdown.
Today the upward movement is expected to continue as well, even though there is a high chance that it will be stopped, first, by resistance zone near the monthly PP and then by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level located at 113.00. However, a change in information landscape or aggravation of situation with North Korea might alter this generally bullish scenario.
USD/JPY falls from rising wedge by 1.22% USD/JPY falls from rising wedge by 1.22%
An announcement made by General Flynn that led to rapid sell-off of the buck against all major currencies perfectly matched with a breaking point of a readjusted rising wedge formation. Fortunately, bulls managed to create support near the 111.80 mark that was surrounded by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the bottom boundary of an ascending channel. As this event occurred shortly before markets got closed, new trading session the pair started straight from the pre-fall 112.80 level.
Accordingly, the pair has once again returned back into boundaries of the above rising wedge pattern. Since further path to the top is obstructed by the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 113.00 and the weekly R1 at 113.11, the pair might actually make another turnaround. If a rebound happens, it might confirm validity of a new junior channel down.
USD/JPY breaks two-week long channel downUSD/JPY breaks two-week long channel down
For the first time in many weeks, reports about another ballistic missile launch made by North Korea did not led to appreciation of the Yen. The news from Asia most probably was beat by a series of positive news coming from the United States. From technical point of view, strengthening of the buck led to breakout through strong resistance formed by the upper boundary of a descending channel together with the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
Although certain signs point out on formation of a new ascending channel, this view might be premature, as further path to the north is obstructed by resistance zone surrounding the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 111.65 as well the weekly PP at 111.78 that is backed up by the 200-hour SMA. In other words, today the pair is likely to plunge back to 111.20.
USD/JPY prepares to test support at 111.20USD/JPY prepares to test support at 111.20
In line with expectations, by the end of the previous trading session the currency rate has reached the upper boundary of a currently active descending channel. As this barrier was additionally backed up by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level as well as the falling 100-hour SMA, the pair was forced to rebound. During first half of the day the pair is likely to get back to the 11.60 mark amid the push made by the 55-hour SMA. But subsequently the pair is expected to test support area between the 111.20-111.10 levels. Unless the Yen receives a proper impulse this barrier might ruin the pattern. However, such scenario unlikely to lead to rapid recovery of the buck, as on daily chart road to north is blocked by a combination of the 100- and 200-day SMAs.
USD/JPY slips to monthly S1 at 112.04USD/JPY slips to monthly S1 at 112.04
Contrary to trade patterns theory, the currency rate did not make a breakout from the falling wedge formation to the north. Moreover, the safe haven Yen was quoted higher despite release of disappointing trade data. For this reason, the fall of the rate was most likely based on worries about vote for the new tax reform and Merkel’s failure to form a new government. On the one hand, the fact that the monthly S1 located at the 112.04 level sustained under such heavy pressure indicates on an upcoming recovery of the buck, which will tend to reach the 112.62 mark. This scenario is partially supported by the aggregate market sentiment, which is 59% bullish. On the other hand, the falling moving averages are likely to continue pushing the pair to the bottom in the nearest future.
USD/JPY moves to south as expected USD/JPY moves to south as expected
As it was expected, the currency exchange managed to break below both the psychological 113.00 level as well as the weekly S1 located at 112.86. A release of better than expected American retail sales and inflation data did not ruin this achievement. In contrast, it simply accelerated a rebound from the bottom trend-line of the currently active descending channel. Generally, the exchange rate is expected to resume the movement upwards. However, there is a little chance that it will manage to climb above new combined resistance set up by the monthly PP and the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. To put it differently, the pair is expected to make another rebound and continue heading to the south. The main factor that might alter this assumption will be the upcoming US release of manufacturing data.
USD/JPY trades in descending channelUSD/JPY trades in descending channel
During previous trading session the currency exchange rate expectedly approached and made a rebound from the upper-boundary of the current descending channel. As a result, now the pair is expected to continue moving to the bottom. This direction is also supported by the fact that the 55- and 100-hour SMAs are located above the current market price. Nevertheless, deprecation of the Yen might be hampered if bears fail to push the pair through the monthly PP at 113.25. In addition to that, there is a need to take into account existence of a junior ascending channel that formed as a part of the larger pattern and might also obstruct the further plunge. Finally, some volatility in the markets might also be caused by a speech that will be delivered by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda at the University of Zurich.
USD/JPY slips in new channel downUSD/JPY slips in new channel down
As it was expected, different news coming from the United States and Asia created a downside momentum that allowed traders with bearish outlook to push the currency pair down to the 113.65 level. The further deprecation of the buck was stopped by a slope consisting from October 16 and October 31 minimums. An existence of this support barrier as well as President Trump’s arrival to China suggests that the currency rate might resume the surge despite the pressure from 200-, 100- and 55-hour SMAs.
On the other hand, over the last two days the pair has formed a minor descending channel, which implies that the above moving averages should be strong enough to force the rate to make a rebound from the upper boundary of that pattern.
USD/JPY reaches July 2017 maximum at 114.50USD/JPY reaches July 2017 maximum at 114.50
A release of data that beat analysts’ expectations not only signified a breakout from symmetrical triangle pattern but also provided a necessary impulse to reach the maximum of July 2017 located at the 114.50 level. That fundamental event was also significant for a couple of other reasons. First of all, it became evident that the pair is moving in a new minor ascending channel. Second, an upcoming breakout from that pattern is unlikely due to pressure from the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs that are rising along its southern boundary. This, in turn, implies that currency rate has a good chance to bypass the weekly R1 at 114.69 and reach a combined resistance set up by the monthly R1 and the March 2017 maximum at 115.00. Unfortunately, the pair faces a slope on its way that started to form in the end of 2015 and most probably will beat all bullish attempts by the end of the day.
USD/JPY approaches 113.80USD/JPY approaches 113.80
New trading week the currency rate stared in a limbo between the 200-hour SMA from the bottom and a combination of the weekly PP, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs from the top. Such neutral movement reflects anticipation of the Bank of Japan Policy Rate announcement. But since there is high probability that the central bank will left the monetary policy unchanged, the pair is not expected to act unpredictably.
Such assumption is partially supported by presence of two extremums, which have already forced the rate to make a rebound more than once. The first is located near the 114.30 mark, while the other at the 113.34 level. A breakout through one of these barriers is likely to follow after the FOMC Statement, which will be delivered on Wednesday.
USD/JPY fails to surge above 114.20Morning outlook - USD/JPY fails to surge above 114.20
Although the currency exchange rate was fluctuating in an ascending triangle, releases of better than expected American data forced the pair to stop testing the weekly R1 at 114.19 and make a breakout in the southern direction. As the rate has already passed through the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, it is expected to continue the plunge.
However, there are two support barriers on the way that might turnaround the pair one more time. The first one is located between the 113.25 and 113.21 marks, while the second one represents the rising 200-hour SMA. Daily chart suggests that the pair will not manage to slip below the 113.00 level, as that that area represent location of the lower support line of the dominant rising wedge pattern.
USD/JPY surges to 114.00 amid Abe’s victoryMorning outlook - USD/JPY surges to 114.00 amid Abe’s victory
In accordance with experts’ expectations, the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party secured their seats for another term. Anticipation and confirmation of this result led to sharp appreciation of the Dollar against the Yen, allowing the pair to reach a new cellar at the 114.00 mark. This advance signified a breakthrough through the upper resistance line of large falling wedge. This fact allows assuming that the buck is going to continue strengthening at least until the clash with the monthly R1 at 114.75. But in shorter perspective the pair is likely to return back to the 113.35 mark and make a rebound from the bottom edge of a junior ascending channel that will be backed up by the rising 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
USDJPY short term SELL opportunitySelling opportunity on USDJPY using the Elliott Wave theory in the 1hr time frame
