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USD/JPY trades near 111.88Morning outlook - USD/JPY trades near 111.88
In accordance with expectations, the currency exchange rate continued to move to the south within one-week long descending channel. The further deprecation of the buck was supported not only by the pressure of 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs that were moving along the pattern’s upper boundary, but also by the increased US CPI and ongoing war of words between the US, North Korea and Iran.
At the moment, the northern side is additionally protected by the updated weekly PP at 112.13, while the southern side lacks of any notable technical barriers up until the weekly S1 at 111.43. These facts as well as the 56% bearish market sentiment suggests that in the nearest future the currency rate most probably is going to continue to move to the bottom.
USD/JPY SELL STOP - 16/10/2017
The pair finally has broken down the lower boundary of the consolidation and is trading below it. The move was sharp and supported by large volume, which is a good bearish signal, but we should note that volume was concentrated at the bottom of the fall and the new support level was created. It is 111.73 - 111.86. So we can open short positions after a sure breakdown of this level on increased volume. A stop loss should be placed above the breakout volume bar. A potential of the fall is more than 100 points.
The bottom line: short positions after a breakdown of the support
USD/JPY down 0.6% amid growing Trump & Kim rhetoric Morning outlook - USD/JPY down 0.6% amid growing Trump & Kim rhetoric
In line with expectations, the currency rate continued to climb to the top, trying to reach the upper line of an ascending triangle pattern, another escalation of the North Korean crisis led to fall of the rate by 68 basis points just in two hours. Accordingly, in the beginning of this trading session the currency rate found itself not only below the updated weekly PP at 112.81 but also the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. This combined resistance suggests that the pair will be forced to continue to fall. The fact that the closest southern barrier is located only at the 112.20 mark supports the above assumption. On the other hand, as soon as markets will come down, the Dollar is going to start to gradually recover against the Yen.
USD/JPY surges amid US fundamentalsMorning outlook - USD/JPY surges amid US fundamentals
In line with expectations, the currency rate reached and made a successful rebound from the bottom trend-line of a senior ascending channel. Fortunately for the buck, this technical moment matched with release of information on the US non-manufacturing activity. However, the surge did not last for long, as it was quickly stopped by a combination of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
Such outcome suggests that today bears are going to try to restore lost positions and push the pair back to the bottom at least until the 200-hour SMA, which is located near the 112.55 level. The fact that the dominant channel already consists of five confirmation points implies that a breakout is likely to happen in the nearest future. This assumption looks even more probable amid the pair’s failure the surge above the 113.20 level.
USD/JPY surges towards updated weekly R1 at 113.36Morning outlook - USD/JPY surges towards updated weekly R1 at 113.36
Despite a certain volatility that was caused by a release of information on the US consumer spending, the pair continued to gradually climb to the top, as expected. In the first half of Monday, the rate is likely to cross the upper trend-line of a junior descending channel and continue to head towards the updated weekly R1 at 113.36. Such scenario is supported by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs as well as the weekly PP, which are all located below the current market price.
The only event that has a chance to push the currency pair in the opposite direction is a release of US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT. Otherwise, the pair is projected to head to the north, fluctuating in a senior ascending channel.
USD/JPY breaks long term patternMorning outlook - USD/JPY breaks long term pattern
Unfortunately for the Yen, the buck traders managed to push the pair through a combined resistance formed by the monthly R2 at 112.54 in conjunction with the upper trend-line of a ten month long falling wedge pattern. Despite such significant breakthrough, the exchange rate continues to fluctuate in two recently formed ascending channels whose cross point might represent a breaking point of another minor rising wedge.
If this assumption is true, the pair might try to slip to the bottom. However, all these attempts are likely to be neutralized by a combination of the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. To put differently, if the pair has indeed left the long-term pattern, it might freely continue to climb to the top, facing no significant obstacles on its way (at least in the short run).
USD/JPY continue to fluctuate near monthly R2 at 112.55Morning outlook - USD/JPY continue to fluctuate near monthly R2 at 112.55
Due to increasing hostile rhetoric between the US and North Korea about mutual destruction, the Yen got another momentum to try to return to the 111.38 level.
But this attempt was neutralized by the 100-hour SMA near 111.72. Because of this support, the buck started restoring its lost positions but once again failed to break above the monthly R2, which is located at the 112.55 level.
In the first half of the day, the pair is likely to fall towards a combination of the above 100-hour SMA and the updated weekly PP at 111.90.
Afterwards, the buck is expected to try to make a rebound and make another attempt to break through that strong resistance level.
But from a general perspective, the rate should enter into a clearly red zone.
USD/JPY fails to break above 111.26 two timesMorning outlook - USD/JPY fails to break above 111.26 two times
In line with expectations, until a release of data on the US Retail Sales the currency pair spent in an upward movement. In the process, it made two attempts to break above the monthly R1 at 111.26 but both of them failed.
Due to pressure from the approaching 55- and 100-hour SMAs as well as existence of a recently formed ascending channel, the pair is expected to eventually break through that barrier. An aggregate of technical indicators supports this scenario, sending strong buy signals.
Nevertheless, a possibility of a third rebound and subsequent dissolution of the channel also remains on the table.
USD/JPY confidently moves to northMorning outlook - USD/JPY confidently moves to north
In result of the yesterday’s advance, the currency exchange rate managed to cross practically all barriers on its way.
As a result, the only two obstacles that could prevent the further path to the north, except for the upper trend-line of a former descending channel near 110.42, are the weekly R2 at 110.98 and the monthly R1 at 111.26.
From this perspective, the Dollar is expected to continue to appreciate against the Yen.
An aggregate of technical indicators supports this assumption, sending strong buy signals for the upcoming day.
However, there is also a need to take into account that an average market sentiment remains 58% bearish.
Moreover, in the middle of the day the above scenario might be altered, depending on the released US PPI data.
USD/JPY encounters combined resistanceMorning outlook - USD/JPY encounters combined resistance
As it was expected, the new trading week the Greenback started in a recovery against the Yen.
A breakout near the 107.40 mark suggests that the pair is moving in a new junior descending channel.
If this assumption is correct, the buck is expected to try to surge towards the monthly PP at 109.76.
Yet this target might not be reached from the first attempt, as road to the north is obstructed by a combined resistance level that consists of the weekly PP, the monthly S1 as well as the 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
From a daily perspective, this barrier also seems too strong to be crossed. In other words, a new descending channel on a larger timeframe points out that the fourth rebound is expected to follow.
USD/JPY rebounds from monthly S1 at 108.48Morning outlook - USD/JPY rebounds from monthly S1 at 108.48
In accordance with expectations, most of the previous trading day the currency rate spent in an upward movement, using the weekly and monthly S1, as trampolines. Despite such rebound, the further road to the north is still obstructed by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs and then by the weekly and monthly PP.
For this reason, today the pair is expected to resume the fall and once again to try to break through the above weekly S1 at 108.80.
In the meantime, there is a need to take into account a certain effect that might appear after publication of data on the Japan’s Final GDP at 23:50 GMT.
Finally, there is also a need to remember that the rate is simultaneously moving in a senior descending channel and still hasn’t formed a new reaction low.
USD/JPY leaves falling wedgeMorning outlook - USD/JPY leaves falling wedge
As it was expected, the currency rate continued to plunge in a falling wedge pattern, trying to reach the weekly S1 at 108.80. Due to existence of this pattern, a collective pressure from the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs from the top and geopolitical tensions, the pair managed to reach this target.
However, there is a need to remember that the exchange rate is simultaneously moving in a dominant descending channel. But given that the road to its bottom edge is secured by the monthly S1 at 108.48, it seems that the pair will make a premature rebound and resume the surge at least until the approaching 55-hour SMA.
USD/JPY slips on fears of Kim Jong-unMorning outlook - USD/JPY slips on fears of Kim Jong-un
Over the last couple of weeks, movement of the USD/JPY currency pair was strongly affected by news coming from the Korean peninsula. The same thing happened today as well. In result of a successful test of a hydrogen bomb, the Yen started to actively recover against the Greenback.
These growing fears drove the pair straight through a combination of the weekly and monthly PP around 109.75 as well as the 100- and 200-hour SMAs. As a result, now the rate has no any obstacles on its way up until the updated weekly S1 at 108.80.
Consequently, the bears are expected to continue to dominate the market at least until the pair will encounter the above support.
USDJPY - Long SetupHello Traders,
-Remember our last trade closed at break even?
-Our first trade entered by pending order at 108.63, closed trade automatically at 109.77, win 100 + pips.
-If you missed it use fib levels to find an entry.
-What now? Looking for second entry to target 1.272 IF the risk off trade fades.
-N.Korea-US-Japan political risk driven USDJPY to 108.30 and recovered soon to our target.
-Don't chase the price, let it pull back.
Trade with care
Good luck!
USD/JPY falls as North Korean crisis escalatesMorning outlook - USD/JPY falls as North Korean crisis escalates
In result of a new ballistic missile test conducted by North Korea, the American Dollar lost 0.57% against the Japanese Yen just in two hours.
Accordingly, in the first half of Tuesday the buck is expected to try to recover some of the lost value. However, even if it succeeds to break through the upper boundary of a junior descending channel, the pair most likely will fail to climb above 109.28, as this resistance level is reliably protected by a combination of the weekly PP and the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs.
In addition, there is a need to take into account another fundamental event that will happen at 14:00 GMT, i.e. a release of data on the US CB Consumer Confidence.
USD/JPY returns back to 108.82Morning outlook - USD/JPY returns back to 108.82
Unfortunately for the buck, the assumption about an existence of a short-term ascending channel did not confirm, as the currency rate once again slipped to the monthly S1.
A quite sharp fall indicated that the pair had a chance bypass this support level, but in the early Thursday morning the Greenback started to actively recover ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium.
An aggregate of technical indicators suggests the pair will continue to move downwards despite the two failed attempts to slide below the 108.82 level.
That might be true, especially taking into account that the pair is simultaneously moving a senior descending channel.
On the other hand, there will be also a release of the US housing data that might accelerate the fall, or help the buck to continue to recover further.
USD/JPY heads towards 109.59Morning outlook - USD/JPY heads towards 109.59
The USD/JPY exchange rate acted exactly as it was expected. Namely, it made the second attempt to break through the monthly S2 at 108.82, but failed. In result of a rebound, it broke through the upper boundary of a junior descending channel.
At the moment, it is heading upwards towards a combined resistance level set up a combination of the weekly PP at 109.59 in conjunction with the 100- and 200-hour SMAs.
Most probably, their combined effort will force the pair to retreat.
An aggregate of technical indicators support this possibility by sending strong sell signal.
But in the meantime, the average market sentiment remains 68.24% bullish, which should not be disregarded in the larger perspective.
USDJPY - ShortWe are looking at shorting the USDJPY from the Weekly Central Pivot Point on a show of weakness, and if that fails then we have a backup in the form of our Weekly M3 zone.
This is a typical sell zone in a downtrend, and we also have a confluence of factors at play here.
110.00 even handle
Weekly M3 sell zone
Bearish Bat pattern completion
Major structure support/resistance
We will not be entering this trade until we see a reason for entry at one of these levels.
Bon chance!
Long USDJPY Short Term Based on Bullish Gartley FormationThis research is for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Trading on leverage involves risk of losses greater than deposits.
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USDJPY 60mins AnalysisUsdjpy is poised to relieve the buying pressure short term, and with the double top I wouldn't remove a complete reversal off the table. We have a potential Cypher pattern completion @ 113.322. We also have a potential Bat pattern completion @ 113.551. Let's see how this plays out through the week.
