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Usdjpyanalysis

Bank of Japan Raises Rates, Yen StrengthensBank of Japan Raises Rates, Yen Strengthens The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised short-term interest rates to 0.5%, the highest level in 17 years. While this move was anticipated, the currency market responded with a significant strengthening of the yen, with USD/JPY falling by approximately 0.6%. At a press conference, BOJ Governor Ueda stated that there is no predetermined course for future rate adjustments. Meanwhile, media reports cite analysts’ opinions suggesting that the rate could be raised again before the end of 2025. Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart shows the formation of a descending channel (highlighted in red) at the start of 2025. The news of the rate hike enabled bears to launch another attack on the psychological level of 155 yen per dollar—a level that had previously served as support earlier this month. As of the morning of 24 January, bulls are managing to defend this level, but how long can they hold out if bearish pressure persists? Key points to note: → The USD/JPY trend resembles a rounding-top pattern. → The yen's strength is also supported by the dollar’s weakness, influenced by some uncertainty surrounding the introduction of international trade tariffs promised by US President Trump. Today, at 17:45 GMT+3, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures will be released, potentially triggering heightened volatility in financial markets. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
USDJPY - BoJ Interest Rate Decision?!Here is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels. Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . USDJPY is currently trading at around 155.800 . Our scenarios are in play after the BoJ (Bank of Japan) Interest Rate Decision is out. Let’s take another look at them with more in-depth outcomes. These scenarios are written from just a TA (Technical Analysis) point of view. Scenario 1: BUYS -We broke above 156.700 . With the break of 156.700 we can expect a possible move up to 158.748. With a a further break of this KL (Key Level) we can expect more upside on the pair potentially reaching top of the long-term range sitting at 161.820. Scenario 2: SELLS -We broke below 154.881 . If we break bellow 154.881 we can expect more downside on the pair even up to 152.000. With breaks of this level we could see even lower levels sitting at around 149.394 or “bottom of the long-term range”. IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS: - 161.820; top of the long-term range - 158.748; breaks above would result in more upside - 154.881; breaks below would result in sells - 152.817; breaks below confirming lower levels - 152.030; breaks below confirming lower levels - 149.394; bottom of the long-term range Personal opinion: It’s not advised to enter into sells or buys before we have a clear break or the BoJ Interest Rate Decision data out. For now we are patiently waiting on either breaks to the upside or breaks to the downside. More volatility on the pair is expected tomorrow so be careful. KEY NOTES - USDJPY breaking above 156.700 would confirm buys. - USDJPY breaking below 154.881 would confirm sells. - BoJ Interest Rate Decision is tomorrow. Happy trading! FxPocket
by FxPocket
1
Market Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects GainsMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Corrects Gains USD/JPY is correcting gains and now consolidates below 156.00. Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today - USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 157.00 and 156.60 levels. - There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 155.90 on the hourly chart at FXOpen. USD/JPY Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 158.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 157.00 support against the Japanese Yen. The pair even settled below the 156.60 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 155.00 and the pair traded as low as 154.77. It is now correcting losses and trading above the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near a connecting bearish trend line at 155.90. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 156.58 swing high to the 154.77 low. The first major resistance is near the 156.60 zone. If there is a close above the 156.60 level and the hourly RSI moves above 60, the pair could rise toward 157.00. The next major resistance is near 157.70, above which the pair could test 158.50 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is near 155.35. The next major support is near the 154.80 level. If there is a close below 154.80, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 154.00 support. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USD/JPY - Bulls defending ? Monday may show significant volatility in markets following Trump investiture. Where the dollar will head to remains uncertain, number of FED cuts for 2025 remain uncertain but recent NFP reports and CPI showed strength in labor market and higher inflation, leaning towards a hawkish Fed for this start of the year. What matters for next week is Trump's investiture, market will be responsive to any type of communication from the incoming president. Trump has made it clear that he wants a weak dollar to reduce the trade deficit. Technical show that Dollar has gained incredible momentum over the past 4 weeks. There will be a clear dilemma for the markets on will Trump's politic will be inflationary (and cause Fed to hold rates higher for longer) or will he succeed in implementing a weaker dollar. Historically, Dollar fell the first months Trump was in office in 2017. - Currently, USD/JPY FX:USDJPY is trading around a key area around 156.000 around the 4H 20 EMA. Bulls showed up on Friday. Bulls reclaim 156.000 area of this 4H trading range: - If dollar remains strong next week, we could see the USD/JPY continue to trade within this 4H range, which would confirm a failed breakout from this TR and put our next target on 158.000. Multiple ways to trade this, scale in if bulls strong on Monday for aggressive traders or wait to see to see consecutive 4H bull bars for entries. -Valid fake outs often lead to aggressive moves in the opposite direction of the breakout as sellers may be trapped in a loosing trade leading to both bulls and bears buying. DXY TVC:DXY bounced of the bullish trending line: - The play for next week could be to see the dollar rally towards 110.000-110.500 area and see some potential reaction there, potentially some sideways trading before market decides its next move. Remember to be careful on this, last week USD/JPY was a bear bar closing below its lower half which may be a sell signal for next week. Next week will be volatile for markets so I'd recommend lowering your trading size. This is a C setup. Peace,
Long
by Baudoouin
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long & Short entry. 👀 So Be wealthy and safe trade 💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull or Bear trade at any point after the PPI news. Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 1H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks. Goal 🎯: Bullish Robbers TP 160.00 (or) Before Bearish Robbers TP 155.500 (or) Before Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release. Fundamental Outlook 📰🗞️ The upcoming PPI news is expected to be positive, with the Producer Price Index for final demand predicted to rise. This is based on the recent trend of increasing prices for final demand goods and services. In the previous month, the index for final demand goods moved up 0.7 percent, with prices for final demand foods jumping 3.1 percent. The index for final demand services also rose 0.2 percent, led by a 0.8-percent increase in margins for final demand trade services. Upcoming Fundamental Indicators: Interest Rate Divergence: US Federal Reserve vs. Bank of Japan US Economic Data: Non-Farm Payroll, GDP growth rate Japanese Economic Data: GDP growth rate, inflation rate Trade Tensions: US-Japan trade tensions Upcoming Market Sentiment: Bullish Sentiment: 70% Bearish Sentiment: 30% Neutral Sentiment: 0% Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions. Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan. Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly. 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
by Thief_Trader
2
USD/JPY, Where to Next?As explained before before, USD/JPY drowned almost two percent this week, three scenarios can play out next: - Bearish scenario: Current 4H chart is evolving into a bear flag from previous TR, bears could get a second or third (depending on ur analysis) leg down towards 154.00 target: -Bullish scenario: Bulls could fight of the downtrend and reclaim 156.000 to evolve into a trading range. This will be hard as they have to reclaim 20 EMA where bears might be present. Bulls would need to show consecutive buying to show they are back in control. -Sideways trading: Trading could be sideways to reach 20 EMA on the daily before next move is decided. So far, odds favour the Bear scenario, the longer we stay below the trading range, the more likely bears are will get their bear leg. - Scalp idea for the day traders: Currently, theres an extending triangle evolving with an inside wedge top, this could be a sign bears are stepping in again. Bulls did not show strength at start of day, they got two small legs, but were not satisfied, likely to start selling again. Day could evolve into trading range day depending on reaction at day open. If extending triangle plays out and there's consecutive selling, 155 is the target with 20 EMA acting as resistance. Peace, B Setup
by Baudoouin
Bottom Wedge USD/JPY - Which side will we see a breakout from ? -> Following FX:USDJPY downfall, price almost fell two percent this week. -> Bottom wedge was identified, which side it will break down to is still to be determined. Either way, an upside breakout can justify a scalp on 5-15 min timeframe a after consecutive bull bars are seem. Looking at the other side of the coin, a downside breakout would lead to a third leg down a indicate that the bear trend is soon halting or reversing. -> Most importantly, be cautious and patient with such trades, wait for breakout and follow through buying- or selling- to place trade. Remember that USD/JPY is reversing with a strong Yen and odds favour bears, as seen with bear flag on this 4h chart: Will the bear flag will get a secong leg and gain downside momentum?, or will we have a failed trading range breakout with a short term reversal around the 156.000 area is still to be determined. B setup Peace
by Baudoouin
USD/JPY Hits One-Month LowUSD/JPY Hits One-Month Low The USD/JPY pair fell to its lowest level in a month during today’s Asian session, dropping below 155.5 yen per US dollar for the first time since 19th December. As Reuters reports: → The yen’s strengthening was driven by hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, which prompted markets to bet on a potential interest rate hike next week. → A significant majority of surveyed economists anticipate the BOJ will raise rates at one of its two meetings this quarter, with most favouring a January hike. The BOJ’s decision on rates may depend on market stability following Donald Trump’s return to the White House next Monday. His inauguration speech will be closely watched by policymakers worldwide to gauge his likely political direction. Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart shows: → The price has struggled to hold above the 158 yen-per-dollar level, which can be considered a critical barrier where bulls are unwilling to take on the risk associated with potential rate hikes. → The 157 level has been broken, transitioning from support to resistance (as indicated by the arrows). Bulls might find support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel (marked in blue), which has been in place since November last year. However, given strong fundamental factors, such as the US presidential inauguration and BOJ rate decisions, USD/JPY is likely to experience spikes in volatility that could significantly shift the supply-demand balance—not just in the short term. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDJPY and US10Y Late last summer on Aug 5th when the Yen Carry trade unwound, the S&P 500 fell more than 5% intraday and VIX spiked to 60. This marked a localized bottom on the USDJPY daily chart with US10Y making 52 week lows the following month Sept. Since then, the US10Y has been on a relentless run to the 52-week high of 4.79%. This reminds us that under the surface there might be Yen carry trade in full swing. That means traders / investors are borrowing at low interest rate in JPY and then buying the US10Y to get the interest rate differential. This is also pushing the US Dollar index to recent ATH. There might be sharp reversals when the USDJPY carry trades unwind. Watch for key levels in US10Y and DXY. US10Y at 5% might be the turning point which will mark a failed breakout at Oct 2023 highs.
by RabishankarBiswal
USD/JPY (UJ) Analysis (Daily Timeframe)The USD/JPY pair has been following a clear market cycle, transitioning from distribution to markdown , followed by accumulation , and now entering a bullish markup phase , showcasing strong bullish momentum. Key Observations: Market Phases: Distribution Phase: The bullish move ended near the 162 level , where sellers gained control, initiating a markdown. Accumulation Phase: After a significant markdown, UJ found a base around the 140 level, forming an accumulation phase with demand coming back into the market. Current Phase: The pair has now broken out of accumulation and is in a bullish move, with a well-defined structure of higher highs and higher lows. EMA Surfing and Momentum: The price is currently surfing upward along the EMAs , showing strong trend-following behavior with EMAs acting as dynamic support. The tightening of the EMAs during the accumulation phase has now expanded , supporting the continuation of the bullish move. Scenarios to Watch: Continuation to Targets: USD/JPY could continue its bullish momentum toward the short-term target near 159 and potentially the medium-term target around 162. This aligns with the ongoing strength in the USD and the current bullish structure . Pullback for Reaccumulation: A potential retracement could act as a reaccumulation phase, gathering liquidity before resuming the uptrend.
Long
by TraderOuss_LumaNex
USD/JPY showing weaknessThe USD/JPY pair has been fluctuating within a range. Recent data shows the price closing around 157.30, indicating some stability in the short term. Key support levels are around 156.24, while resistance levels are near 158.421. These levels can act as potential entry or exit points. so 156 will be a good level to short wit a red 4h candle closed near. Nver enter after a green candle only after a 4h bearish candle closed bellow 156.24. SCALP target @156.244 SWING Target @153.160
Short
by miketiger
USDJPY – in accumulation phase but undoubtedly bullish .. 13 JanWeekly – Bullish, although it has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. Daily – same as weekly. Please note that the bears have been unable to push price lower. Price is well above the 200dma. The area around 156.20 was has been tested multiple times and provides solid support (was resistance earlier). H4 – In line with the weekly and daily charts. A pullback to 156.20 and a bullish bounce there would be ideal, however that may not happen. We could see bullish price action even earlier. I will be monitoring PA closely and look for taking an entry whenever I see convincing bullish strength. An obvious target would be the next resistance in the 161.70 region. This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Long
by Trading_Vista
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
USDJPY ANALYSIS IS READY TO FLY MUST READ THE CAPTION The chart for USD/JPY shows the following: 1. Timeframe: 1-hour chart. 2. Key Levels: Target Zone: Around 159.100, indicating a potential bullish target. Current Price: Approximately 157.933 (Sell) and 157.946 (Buy). Stop Loss: Positioned near 157.226 to manage downside risk. 3. Technical Analysis: Pattern: A potential rounding top or consolidation phase before a breakout. Scenarios: Two possible bullish outcomes are shown with arrows: A breakout above the resistance zone, aiming for the target zone (159.100). A retracement followed by a bullish move. Key Support Levels: 157.692 and below, which could act as critical zones to watch. 4. Moving Average: A moving average (possibly the 200 EMA) provides additional support near the stop-loss level. 5. Trading Idea: Buy opportunities are highlighted with strict risk management via the stop-loss placement. The chart suggests bullish momentum but emphasizes careful monitoring of price action near key levels.
Short
by Forex_Vip_Signals