USDJPY Returns to Key Support – Another Bounce Ahead?At the end of April and beginning of May, I pointed out the importance of the 142 support zone and argued that USDJPY could reverse to the upside, targeting the 146 resistance.
The pair did exactly that — not only hitting the 146 target, but also spiking as high as 148, reaching the next major resistance.
🔁 Now We're Back towards 142
Since mid-May, USDJPY has pulled back again and is now retesting the 142 area — the same zone that previously triggered a strong bounce.
📌 Outlook and Trading Plan
I still consider the 142 level a solid support, and this recent drop could offer a new buying opportunity.
Any dips under 142 that quickly reverse can be used to build long positions, with a target once more around 146.
That offers a clear trade setup with a good risk-to-reward ratio.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Usdjpyanalysis
USD/JPY 1H Analysis – Channel Breakout and Buy SignalOverview:**
The USD/JPY chart shows a **bullish breakout from a descending channel**, supported by technical indicators like the Ichimoku Cloud and a strong demand zone. This setup suggests a potential bullish reversal and upward momentum.
*Key Technical Points:**
* **Descending Channel Breakout:**
Price action has broken out of a falling channel, indicating a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.
* **Strong Support Zone:**
Around 143.28 – 143.73, the price found significant support, which aligns with a previous demand zone. This area held firm, helping trigger the breakout.
* **Ichimoku Cloud:**
Price is emerging above the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a potential start of an uptrend. If the price maintains above the cloud, bullish momentum may strengthen.
* **Resistance Levels:**
* **First Resistance:** Near 146.00 – a critical area to watch for short-term profit-taking.
* **Second Resistance:** Around 148.00 – a more extended target if bullish continuation holds.
---
### **Trading Idea:**
**BUY USD/JPY** on successful retest of the breakout or sustained move above the Ichimoku Cloud.
* **Entry:** 144.30–144.40 zone
* **Target 1:** 146.00
* **Target 2:** 148.00
* **Stop Loss:** Below 143.20 (under the support zone)
---
Conclusion:**
The chart presents a classic **bullish channel breakout** supported by the Ichimoku indicator and price action at a strong support zone. As long as the price holds above the breakout level and Ichimoku Cloud, the upside targets at 146 and 148 remain valid.
Let me know if you want this formatted as a trade plan or journal entry.
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Was This Week's Move in USD/JPY Just a Correction?This week’s bounce in USD/JPY may have caught some traders off guard—but when viewed through the lens of the Elliott Wave Principle, the price action appears to be corrective rather than impulsive.
🧩 The Evidence: A 3-Wave Move
According to the wave structure:
The recent move up unfolded in 3 waves, labeled as an ABC correction.
Wave C terminated near the 100% Fibonacci extension of Wave A (~146.189), which is a classic ZigZag ratio.
Additionally, there was a clear MACD divergence between price and momentum as Wave C completed—a common sign that the move is running out of steam and that the wave is likely terminal.
These clues all point to the idea that the rally was corrective, not the start of a new impulsive trend.
📉 What Comes Next?
If this count is correct:
USD/JPY may have completed Wave (ii) of a new downward impulse.
The next move could be the start of Wave (iii)—typically the most aggressive and directional wave in a 5-wave decline.
✅ Trigger Level: A break below the B wave low would act as a technical confirmation of the downtrend resuming.
This would be a green light to look for short setups, depending on the strategy each trader follows—whether that’s pattern-based, indicator-confirmed, or structure-driven.
🔁 Alternate Scenario:
If this isn't the start of Wave (iii), the alternate count would suggest a more complex corrective combination (such as a double three).
However, even in that scenario, the short-term direction is still likely downward.
🧠 For Beginners:
Elliott Wave theory breaks price into 5-wave trends and 3-wave corrections.
A ZigZag correction (ABC) is made up of a sharp Wave A, a pullback in Wave B, and a final move up in Wave C.
Wave C often shows momentum divergence (MACD diverging from price), signaling that the move may be exhausting.
When C = A, especially with divergence, it’s often a sign the correction is ending.
📌 Summary:
USD/JPY’s rally appears to be a corrective ABC structure.
Wave C rejected at the 100% extension of A, with MACD divergence confirming weakening momentum.
A break of the B wave low could confirm that Wave (iii) down is underway.
Even in the alternate count, near-term downside is still favored.
💬 Got a Favorite Chart You’d Like Analyzed?
If there’s a forex pair, crypto, or stock you’d like me to break down using Elliott Waves,
leave a comment below and I’ll feature it in an upcoming post from Real Wave Trader.
Bullish Reversal on Risk-On Shift and Channel BreakoutCMCMARKETS:USDJPY USD/JPY surged as risk appetite returned after a U.S. federal court blocked President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, undermining demand for safe-haven assets like the yen. Meanwhile, weak demand in Japan’s 40-year bond auction raised concerns over fiscal stability, adding further downside pressure to JPY. Technically, the pair broke above a downward channel and formed a bullish engulfing pattern near the 144.90 demand zone. If price consolidates above 145.00, a test of the 148.15 resistance zone is possible. Traders now eye upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data for direction on Fed policy.
Resistance : 148.14 , 148.67
Support : 144.90 , 144.42
USD/JPY) Bullish reversal analysis Read The ChaptianMr SMC Trading point update
Technical analysis for the USD/JPY (U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen) on the 4-hour timeframe. Here's a detailed breakdown of the idea and strategy:
---
Key Components of the Chart:
1. Strong Support Zone:
The yellow zone is labeled as a “big support level of pullback”, around the 142.00 – 141.20 range.
Price has historically bounced from this zone, suggesting demand and buyer interest.
2. Bullish Structure Setup:
Price is forming a double bottom or potential reversal pattern in the support zone.
A downtrend line is clearly marked, and a break above this trendline would signal bullish continuation.
3. EMA 200 (at 145.020):
The EMA is currently acting as dynamic resistance.
A breakout above the EMA would confirm further bullish momentum.
4. RSI Indicator:
RSI is currently below 30, indicating the market is oversold – a common precursor to a bullish reversal.
5. Target Levels:
Target 1: 145.803 – likely the first resistance level or EMA retest.
Target 2: 148.587 – a prior high and strong resistance area.
6. Projection:
Price is expected to bounce from support, break the trendline, retest, and then rally to higher levels.
---
Trade Idea Summary:
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: Near 142.00 – 141.20 (support zone)
Confirmation: Break above the descending trendline + bullish RSI divergence
Targets:
TP1: 145.803
TP2: 148.587
Invalidation: Break and close below 141.00 (support zone broken)
Mr SMC Trading point
---
Risk Management Suggestion:
Use a tight stop-loss below the support zone, considering it's the key reversal area. Also, keep an eye on fundamental factors such as U.S. and Japan interest rate decisions or key economic events (indicated by the icons on the chart).
Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
USDJPY: Neutral View! One of The Hardest Forex Pair To TradeUSDJPY has not yet shown a clear move, ranging between 141 and 144. We are currently neutral as the price could go in either direction. Trade cautiously and manage risk according to your trade plan.
Thanks for your support! 😊
If you’d like to help us out, here are a few things you can do:
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- Share our ideas
Team Setupsfx_
❤️
USD/JPY "The Ninja Heist" – Bullish Loot Grab!🌟 Hey, Thieves & Market Bandits! 🌟
💰 Ready to raid the USD/JPY "The Gopher" vault? 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (technical + fundamental heist analysis), here’s the master plan to swipe bullish profits before the market turns against us! Escape near the high-risk Yellow MA Zone—overbought, consolidation, and bear traps ahead! 💸 "Take the money and run—you’ve earned it!" 🏆🚀
🕵️♂️ Heist Strategy:
📈 Entry (Bullish Raid):
The vault’s unlocked! Buy any price—this heist is LIVE!
Pullback lovers: Set buy limits at recent/swing lows for extra loot.
🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route):
Thief SL at recent/swing low (4H/Day trade basis).
Adjust based on your risk, lot size, and multiple orders.
🎯 Target (Profit Escape):
148.700 (or flee earlier if bears ambush!)
⚔️ Scalpers’ Quick Strike:
LONG ONLY! If rich, attack now. If not, join swing traders & rob slowly.
Trailing SL = Your bodyguard! 💰🔒
💥 Why This Heist?
USD/JPY "The Ninja" is bullish due to key factors—check:
📌 Fundamental + Macro + COT Report
📌 Quantitative + Sentiment + Intermarket Analysis
📌 Future Targets & Overall Score (Linkks In the profile!) 🔗🌍
🚨 Trading Alert (News = Danger!):
Avoid new trades during news—volatility kills!
Trailing SL saves profits on running positions.
💖 Support the Heist Team!
💥 Smash the Boost Button! 💥
Help us steal more money daily with Thief Trading Style! 🏆🚀
Stay tuned—another heist is coming soon! 🤑🎯
USDJPY: 300+ Pips From Previous Idea, What Hold Next? Hey Everyone
USDJPY is on a roll! It’s rebounded a whopping 300+ pips and is now on the positive side. We reckon it’s going to keep climbing in the coming days as DXY is starting to regain its strength.
And here’s the cherry on top: there’s some exciting news coming up, including the NFP tomorrow. This could really boost the USDJPY to a new record high.
But remember, when trading, it’s crucial to manage your risk carefully.
Now, let’s talk about the potential for a significant market movement. We’ve spotted a chance for a substantial bullish swing that could reach around 2050 pips. We’ve also identified three potential targets, so you can choose the one that best fits your analysis.
The main driver behind this move is the reversal of the Japanese Yen (JPY) from a bullish trend to a bearish one. So, let’s be cautious and use precise risk management techniques during this period.
Good luck and happy trading! 😊
Oh, and if you’d like to help us out, here are a few things you can do:
- Like our ideas
- Comment on our ideas
- Share our ideas
Thanks a bunch for your support! 😊
Cheers,
The Setupsfx_ Team
Analysing the Volatility Spike on the USD/JPY ChartAnalysing the Volatility Spike on the USD/JPY Chart
The USD/JPY chart offers plenty of noteworthy insights for analysis:
→ A one-month low was recorded today (marked by the arrow);
→ This was followed by a sharp upward reversal, with a series of large bullish candlesticks forming on the intraday chart.
Why Is USD/JPY Moving Sharply Today?
The primary driver appears to be recent statements from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.
According to Trading Economics, this morning Ueda:
→ warned of rising core inflation risks linked to increasing food prices;
→ indicated that the Bank of Japan is prepared to adjust its monetary policy in order to achieve a stable inflation target.
Latest data show that Japan’s core inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.5% — the highest level in two years — reinforcing the case for further rate hikes. However, what's particularly striking is that despite Ueda’s hawkish tone, the yen is weakening.
Technical Analysis of the USD/JPY Chart
Yen fluctuations formed a downward trajectory (marked in orange) in the second half of May, partly driven by US dollar weakness. Following a period of relative calm, the market has shifted into high gear — the ATR indicator is climbing sharply from multi-month lows, breaking through resistance at the 143.0 level.
This aggressive price action on the USD/JPY chart today suggests we may be witnessing an attempted bullish breakout from the channel. In light of this, it is possible that the surge in volatility reflects a fundamental shift in market sentiment — one that could potentially lead to the development of an upward trend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDJPY Analysis – Yield Support Signals Potential UpsideUSDJPY is currently sitting at a key support zone around 142.80–143.00, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. This support area has previously acted as a strong launchpad for price rallies.
🟢 Technical Setup:
Price action has formed a clean higher low structure, bouncing off horizontal support.
The US10Y Treasury Yield (pink line) has rebounded sharply and is diverging to the upside — a leading indicator for USDJPY strength.
The Fib retracement from the last swing move aligns well with the 0% zone, suggesting the dip might be complete.
A bullish reaction from here targets the 148.50 zone, with intermediate resistance around 145.00–146.00.
🟠 Risk Levels:
Invalidated below 141.40 (structure break).
Stops could be placed below 142.00, targeting a 2:1 or better risk-reward ratio.
🔍 Macro-Fundamental Insight:
U.S. Yields are firming despite mixed Fed signals — this gives strength to USD, especially against low-yielders like the JPY.
BOJ remains dovish with no urgency to normalize rates, keeping the yen weak.
With risk appetite improving and bond yields lifting, carry trade dynamics favor USDJPY upside.
✅ Conclusion:
As long as US10Y yields remain firm and USD holds above 142.00, USDJPY has a strong probability of rallying toward 148.50. Look for confirmation with higher highs on the 4H chart and continued divergence between yield and price.
0527: Bearish USD/JPY: BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Hello traders,
In the futures market, I once again came across a more "interesting" piece of data. The COT position data showed that the speculative long positions in the Japanese yen soared to 167,330 contracts, reaching an extreme level not seen in recent years.
★ I would like to present another set of data:
✔ In April, the price of rice in Japan soared by 98.4% year-on-year, marking the largest monthly increase since 1971. This increase was even higher than the 92.1% in March.
✔ The Japanese government cancelled subsidies for gas and electricity in March, causing energy prices to rise by 9.3%.
✔ Japan's core CPI excluding fresh food rose by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than 3.2% in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of core inflation above 3%.
✔ Meanwhile, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative growth since the first quarter of 2024.
✔ Within 45 days, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds soared by 100 basis points, reaching a record high of 3.20%. Over 500 billion US dollars of 40-year Japanese government bonds, regarded as "safe assets", have depreciated by more than 20% in the past 6 weeks.
Technically, weekly chart, UJ has make a bearish reversed bowl top and now this pair is targeting south running beneath WEEKLY EMAs.
The support zone that be test triple would become resistance zone very soon.
The weekly selling targets are marked out on this chart!
Based on the latest market trends and the policy signals from the Bank of Japan, there is a high probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its next meeting (expected to be in June 2025). It is now the time to buy the expectation and sell the reality.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
USDJPY Bearish Continuation Setup Trend Analysis
The market is in a clear downtrend, evidenced by the sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
The descending trendline has been respected multiple times, acting as dynamic resistance.
🧠 Key Technical Factors
Rejection Zone (Supply Area):
The marked “Rejection Point” aligns with the confluence of the trendline resistance, 50 EMA (red), and historical supply.
Price attempted to break above but faced a strong rejection—signaling institutional sell interest.
EMA Confluence:
50 EMA (142.993) and 200 EMA (144.063) are both sloping downward.
Price is trading below both EMAs, confirming bearish momentum and trend continuation bias.
BOS (Break of Structure):
Multiple BOS levels marked, showing a consistent pattern of structure breaks to the downside.
Each rally is met with selling pressure, failing to create new highs.
🧩 Projected Price Action
Current retracement could retest the trendline/50 EMA before a potential continuation move downward.
Expectation is a lower high formation near the descending trendline followed by a bearish impulse.
🏹 Bias: Bearish
Traders might consider short opportunities around the 142.90–143.00 zone, targeting 142.00 and below, with stops just above the trendline/supply zone.
⚠️ Risk Note
A clean break and close above the trendline and 50 EMA would invalidate this setup and could lead to a shift in structure.
USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Bank Bullish Heist Plan (Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Gopher" Forex Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk Yellow MA Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
Place buy limit orders most recent or swing, low level for Pullback entries.
Stop Loss 🛑:
📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 4H timeframe (138.500) Day/Swing trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 147.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
💰💵💸USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets & Overall Score... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Bank Money Heist (Bullish)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰💸✈️
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Market Heist. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is to escape near the high-risk YELLOW MA Zone. It's a Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bullish loot at any price - the heist is on!
however I advise to Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑:
Thief SL placed at the Nearest / Swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (143.000) Day trade basis.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 147.000
💰💵💸USD/JPY "The Ninja" Forex Money Heist Plan is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors. .☝☝☝
📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets.... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗🌎🌏🗺
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰🗞️🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
USDJPY Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Bias with Multi-Market Confluence!📉 USDJPY Technical Breakdown – Yen Strength in Focus 📉
In this video, we take a close look at the USD/JPY, which is currently under pressure and trending to the downside 🔽. The bearish momentum is clear, but there are several key factors to consider before positioning ourselves for a potential short 📊.
🔍 First, it’s important to monitor the equity markets. If we start to see a pullback or sell-off in the stock indices 🏦📉, that could translate into further yen strength, adding weight to a USD/JPY short bias 💴💪.
Another key piece of confluence is comparing the DXY (Dollar Index) 📈 with the JXY (Japanese Yen Index) 📉. This gives us deeper insight into the relative strength of each currency and helps confirm our directional bias before entering a trade ⚖️.
🔁 Coming back to the USD/JPY chart, we’re watching for a retracement into a Fibonacci point of interest, which could provide a high-probability area to enter a sell setup. If price reacts from that level and confirms with structure, we could have a clean opportunity for continuation 🔂🎯.
⚠️ This is not financial advice — always conduct your own analysis and manage risk accordingly.
(BTC/USD) Short Trade Setup – Bearish Reversal from Resistance 1. Entry Point: 111,516.84
2. Stop Loss: 112,858.08
3. EA Target Point (Take Profit): 106,068.04
4. Resistance Point: ~110,563 (currently being tested)
Trade Setup Summary:
Type: Short position
Risk (Stop LOss - Entry): 112,858.08 - 111,516.84 = 1,341.24
Reward (Entry - Target): 111,516.84 - 106,068.04 = 5,448.80
Risk/Reward Ratio: Roughly 1:4, which is favorable.
Technical Indicators:
The chart shows:
Moving Averages: A red (shorter) and blue (longer) MA, suggesting recent bullish momentum.
Price Action: Consolidation near the resistance after an uptrend; current candle appears bearish and breaking the support.
Interpretation:
This is a bearish reversal setup.
If the price breaks the support around 110,563 convincingly, it may confirm a move downward.
The stop loss is placed safely above recent highs to avoid getting caught in short-term volatility.
The target is significantly lower, around previous support levels, implying a strong move down is anticipated.
Risk:
This strategy banks on a clear breakdown. If the support holds, price may reverse upward, hitting the stop loss.
Analysis of USD/JPYDuring the European session, USD/JPY recovered its early losses and traded flat near 143.50. After three consecutive days of declines, the US dollar attracted buying interest on Thursday, pushing the pair higher. Against the backdrop of rising safe-haven demand for the Japanese yen and a generally weak US dollar, USD/JPY had fallen to a two-week low. The yen also benefited from upbeat machinery order data, which overshadowed recession concerns and boosted hopes for an economic recovery. This provided support for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to further raise interest rates. Combined with sustained safe-haven buying, this has kept the yen strong.
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
USD/JPY Long Trade Setup – Key Support Rebound Targeting 148.674Entry Point:
Price: 143.373
The chart suggests initiating a long (buy) position at this level, which is just slightly below the current market price.
Stop Loss:
Price: 141.707
Positioned below a strong support zone. This level protects the trade from excessive downside risk if the price breaks down.
Target Point:
Price: 148.674
The target is clearly defined, indicating a potential gain of approximately 5.991 points, or 4.20% from the entry.
🟪 Support/Resistance Zones
The purple boxes indicate demand (support) and supply (resistance) zones.
The lower zone (entry/stop area) shows a historically significant support range that has been tested multiple times (indicated with orange circles).
The upper purple zone marks the take-profit area, which coincides with previous resistance.
📊 Moving Averages
Blue Line: 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) – acting as dynamic resistance.
Red Line: 50 EMA – price is currently trading below it, indicating bearish short-term pressure but potential for reversal.
🧠 Trade Idea Summary
Bias: Bullish (long position)
Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable
Risk: ~1.67 points (from 143.373 to 141.707)
Reward: ~5.3 points (from 143.373 to 148.674)
Approx. R:R = 1:3.17
Validation: The setup relies on the price holding the key support zone and bouncing higher, targeting the next major resistance.
⚠️ Considerations
Monitor for bullish candlestick patterns near the entry zone.
Keep an eye on macroeconomic news (like BoJ or Fed updates) that could cause volatility in USD/JPY.
Confirm momentum shift with RSI or MACD if using indicators.
USDJPY Bearish in the short term.The USD/JPY exchange rate extended its recent downward trend during the European session, falling for the third consecutive trading day and marking the sixth decline in the past seven trading days. It hit a two-week low in the 143.45 area during the European morning session. Multiple factors have jointly driven the exchange rate lower, indicating that the sharp pullback from the monthly high of 148.65 reached last Monday may continue to extend. The Japanese yen is supported by market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates again and has gained additional momentum from the rebound in risk-aversion demand. In the short term, USD/JPY maintains a downward trend, with technical indicators showing that bears are in control. 142.210 will be a key support level; a break below this level could accelerate the decline toward the 139.887 area.
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
USD/JPY Dips FurtherUSD/JPY Dips Further
USD/JPY declined below 144.50 and is currently consolidating losses.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY is trading in a bearish zone below the 146.10 and 144.90 levels.
- There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 144.25 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a steady decline from well above the 146.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bearish momentum below the 145.00 support against the Japanese Yen.
The pair even settled below the 144.50 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a spike below 144.00 and the pair traded as low as 143.72. It is now consolidating losses with a bearish angle. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 146.10 swing high to the 143.42 low at 144.25.
There is also a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance at 144.25. The first major resistance is near the 144.90 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 146.10 swing high to the 143.42 low.
If there is a close above the 144.90 level and the hourly RSI moves above 50, the pair could rise toward 145.50. The next major resistance is near 146.10, above which the pair could test 147.50 in the coming days.
On the downside, the first major support is near 143.70. The next major support is near the 143.20 level. If there is a close below 143.20, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 142.00 support.
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There is too much uncertainty.The USD/JPY exchange rate lingered near 144.50 during the European session, remaining under pressure. Although the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) found temporary support near 100.10, its overall trend remains uncertain following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Market sentiment is currently tilted toward cautious bearishness, with traders concerned about U.S. debt issues and uncertainties in trade policies—sentiments reflected in the dollar’s weakness. Meanwhile, the progress of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations has added to market uncertainty.
Technical Outlook:
Short-Term: If the pair stabilizes above the 143.74 support level and rebounds above 145, it may challenge the 146.19 resistance level in the near term. A decisive breakout above 146.19 could trigger a new upward trend, targeting 147.95 and 148.64.
Long-Term: A genuine confirmation of a bullish regime would require breaking above the 150 psychological level, which hinges on fundamental catalysts such as the Federal Reserve delaying rate cuts or the Bank of Japan shifting to a more accommodative stance.
Key Drivers to Monitor:
U.S. Treasury yield dynamics and Fed policy expectations.
Developments in U.S.-Japan trade talks and risk sentiment shifts.
Volatility in global equity markets and safe-haven flows.
Market participants are advised to exercise caution amid heightened uncertainty, with tight stop-losses recommended for directional trades.
In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.