USDJPY: Asian foreign exchange increased, USD hit 3-month lowMost Asian currencies rose on Tuesday, pushing the dollar to a three-month low as confidence grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates.
However, gains for most regional currencies were limited this week as traders remained cautious on a number of key economic indicators. This week, all eyes will be on the PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.
The Japanese yen had a particularly strong day, rising 0.3% on the day, as traders said they expect the Bank of Japan to exit its ultra-easy stance in 2024. Japan's stable inflation figures released last week further support this assumption. Thanks to the Fed's reassurance, the yen continued to recover from the 150 yen level. The immediate focus will be on Japan's industrial production and retail sales figures, which will be released later in the day. week.
Usdjpyanalysis
USDJPY Shorts from 149.500 down towards 147.500My bias for USDJPY is bearish due to the fact that price has reacted off the last supply from the whole chart, and has now given a CHOCH and BOS's on the higher time frame. Price has also took all the liquidity that was left above leaving price to now melt downwards and target all the asian lows, trend lines, equal lows, and imbalances that was left previously.
Currently, price has reacted nicely off an 8hr supply which we can enter imminent sells to target the (8hr) demand below at 147.500. I am expecting the 8hr demand to cause a retracement back up but from there we can take short term buys up to a premium supply around 150.500. As Wyckoff distribution has been completed we can look for the asian high to get swept in order to enter our sell positions because a CHOCH has already been presented to us on the 15min.
My confluences for USDJPY Shorts are as follows:
- Price has taken all the magnets that lies above and reacted off the last supply of the chart.
- Price has CHOCH'd and BOS on the higher time frame confirming a bearish trend.
- Lots of liquidity to the downside in the form of trend line liquidity, asian lows, EQLs and IMB's
- Wyckoff distribution has been completed on the Higher time frame and now melting.
- A re accumulation has been presented inside our current 8hr supply in which we have got a clean reaction from.
- Dollar (DXY) is also temporarily bearish for me so it matches with my sell bias for this market.
P.S. even though we are bearish I would also be interested in buying from 147.500 up towards 150.500 or higher to then eventually sell again. For now, we will see if price reaches that demand below as short term buys will be interesting there. Remember being adaptive is very crucial and because I am a day trader, I can counter trend trade up to better POI's to then enter pro trend trades.
USD/JPY Eyes Bullish Impulse on Japan's Economic SignalsUSD/JPY Eyes Bullish Impulse on Japan's Economic Signals
Recent data from Japan indicates progress in achieving sustained inflation, sparking speculation of a possible shift in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) ultra-dovish policy in the early months of 2024. This contrasts with the belief among investors that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has concluded its rate hikes and might initiate a policy easing as early as March 2024.
In line with our analysis from yesterday, the USD/JPY appears to be leveraging a new bullish impulse, particularly given its negative correlation with the EUR/USD, which is currently facing bearish pressure. During the Asian session, the price retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent low, creating a potential setup for a new bullish movement in the pair.
Our Preference:
Above 147.500 look for further upside with 150.30 & 151.50 as targets.
USDJPY - D1\MNUSDJPY
MN - The price may push off from the level, a potential rebound to the values of 127.111
D1 - The price has left the ascending trend channel, a potential retest is now forming (which forms a potentially 3-wave structure) and a continuation of the downward movement from a strong level on the MN timeframe.
H4 - The price has broken through the triangle line, which may indicate a continuation of the fall.
Goals for this position can be taken from levels on D1.
What can you expect?
You can consider entering from the level of 141.018 with further movement to the target of 139.550. Cancellation of the idea so as not to take increased risk on the idea levels beyond the end of the 2nd wave - 149.910 or 1st wave - 152.015
Short
Targets 146.150 - 144.197 - 142.417 - 139.550
USDJPY Navigating Retracement&Identifying Short Opportunities!Introduction:
The USD/JPY pair has experienced a dynamic week marked by a double top pattern, providing insightful clues for traders. While recent days showcased a retracement and an apparent uptrend tendency, the most recent price action is signaling a potential shift.
Retracement Dynamics:
The past week witnessed a retracement in the intense and continuous bearish flow of USD/JPY. The retracement is characterized by an uptrend tendency line, suggesting a temporary shift in market sentiment. However, recent hours are indicating a potential reversal, prompting a closer examination of key technical levels.
Fibonacci Retracement:
Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the current movement aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, centered around the price of 0.750.700. This level serves as a critical reference point, providing insights into potential reversal zones.
Bearish Order Block on Lower Timeframes:
Detailed analysis on smaller timeframes, specifically the 1-hour and 30-minute charts, reveals the formation of a Bearish Order Block. This is a crucial technical pattern signaling a Short Position opportunity. The identified price range of 0.750.600 becomes significant for traders considering a short entry.
Break of Uptrend Tendency Line:
A pivotal moment in this analysis is the recent break of the uptrend tendency line. The breach of this trendline, coupled with a reaction around the strong high of 0.750, suggests a potential re-establishment of the bearish sentiment.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair has undergone a retracement in the past week, challenging the prevailing bearish flow. However, with the recent break of the uptrend tendency line and the formation of a Bearish Order Block on lower timeframes, there is a compelling case for a short position opportunity. Traders are encouraged to closely monitor the price action around the 0.750.600 range, as it may serve as a key entry point for those anticipating a continuation of the bearish trend. As always, risk management and vigilant monitoring of price dynamics are essential for traders navigating these evolving market conditions.
USDJPY → Falling to 1.46? Or Rocket to 1.52? Lets Answer That.USDJPY fell below the 30EMA to my previously predicted area of 147.100 then immediately bounced back to 150.000 only to stall and leave us wondering what the next move will be.
How do we trade this?
We're in a bull channel which should put us in a bias to long. But we have a double top reversal signal at a key level of resistance (the previous Weekly high of 152.000 staring us in the face. We need to see what happens here at the 30EMA. If we get a strong bear bar closing on or near its low, shorting to the bull channel bottom around 146.300 or even the previous high of 145.000 is reasonable. The protective stop should be just above the 30EMA.
You can also wait for a long at the bull channel support or previous high support, looking for a bull channel signal bar and confirmation closing on or near its high. Protective stop just below those levels with a take profit at the 30EMA and then the previous high of 152.000.
Key Takeaways
1. Bull Channel, Bias to Long.
2. Double Top Reversal Signal. Close the Gap to Bull Channel Support.
3. Fell below 30EMA, Gap to Bull Channel Support
4. Previous Channel High of 145.000 Final Target.
5. Wait for Bear Signal Bar for Confirmation to Short.
6. RSI at 47.00, below Moving Average. Supports Short.
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7 Dimension Analysis For USDJPY 🕛 TOPDOWN - Navigating Breakouts and Corrections
Overview: This currency pair broke a 25-year resistance level last year, displaying a fakeout. This year, a robust flow confirms the breakout, with potential for a yearly closing above this level. There's also proximity to breaking a multi-year head and shoulders pattern, accompanied by substantial multi-year buy volume. On the monthly chart, a cup and handle formation is observed, potentially forming a twizzer top for a last pullback. The weekly chart indicates a pre-breakout buildup, with the last week's liquidity sweep candle hinting at further upward movement, especially given its location above the yearly CIP levels.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: Daily
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bullish
🟢 Structure Behavior/BoS: Break of Structure
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective, but a classic bullish pinbar signals the end of correction and a valid high. The upcoming FVG area may guide the final decision based on potential rejection.
🟢 Inducement: Done; the next unmitigated order block is crucial if prices decline further.
🟢 1st Pullback: Possibly deep; internal structure is bearish corrective. Noteworthy is the liquidity sweep indicating potential fakeouts or continuations on the buy side.
🟢 Resistance/Support Areas: Resistance, supply, and trendline broken, yet resistance is yet to be broken. Buildup and pre-breakout QC suggest cautious optimism.
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS
Reversal
Rounding Patterns, Double Top.
Consolidation
Rectangle signaling a bearish breakout.
Raising Wedge with bearish breakout.
Shakeout Continuation, favorable for bulls.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS
Key Observations:
Long wicks: Hammer at yearly CIP.
Momentum candles: Engulfing/Fakeout/FOMO favor bulls.
Inside: Narrow Range 4, anticipating breakout direction.
Tower top/bottom signals climax players favoring bullish FOMO.
3️⃣ Volume: Average volume observed, necessitating observation during corrections and cycles.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI:
🟢 Momentum State: Sideways yet.
🟢 Range Shift: From super bullish to sideways.
🟢 Divergence: Back-to-back bearish divergence suggests a potential correction.
🟢 Grandfather-Father-Son Entries: Strongest buy area post-correction.
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 Middle Band Trend: Bullish; crossing for buy signals.
🟢 Headfake: Lower line head fake signifies a strong buy signal.
6️⃣ Strength - ROC Values: JPY is the weakest against all currencies currently.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: Two areas for buy consideration - Daily (144.555) and Hourly (149.49).
✅ Entry TF Structure:
☑️ Current Move:
✔ Support/Resistance Base:
☑️ Candles Behavior: RSC, Longwicks, Doji, Inside, Momentum.
☑️ FIB Trigger Event
☑️ Trend Line Breakout
☑️ Final Comments:
💡 Decision:
🚀 Entry:
✋ Stop Loss:
🎯 Take Profit: 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO.
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio:
🕛 Expected Duration:
SUMMARY: The analysis showcases a bullish scenario with a breakout from a significant resistance level. While corrections are anticipated, the structure remains bullish, with potential buy entries on both daily and hourly time frames. Divergence signals caution, and key candle patterns, volume analysis, and strength indicators contribute to a comprehensive strategy for navigating this intricate market situation.
I will update this idea further with coming market condition and also update all tp and stop level
USDJPY I Rejecting support and potential riseWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
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USD/JPY 💱 Moving in the Path of Least Resistance UsdJpy heading into Q4 23' . Interesting time because the USD may be over-extended but is it? What is the call for Q4 here Kingpin USD. Little weary to Sell UJ just because it is nearing the highs of structure.. Very likely we could continue highertimeframe momentum because wicks get filled in momentum. Taking a moment to look to the left, we may observe 152 is a range that we can go fill as the market moves to the upside with momentum. The Monthly timeframe is pushing up into the close of the Yearly candle. Next target that may occur for Q1 2024 is 155. What're your thoughts about medium term UsdJpy?
UDS/JPY Falling to 146.000!? Double Top Reversal Signal CompleteUDS/JPY has a double top reversal signal on the Daily candles and a triple top on the 4HR candles with a massive gap to fill. This reversal signal happened at a key level, 152.00 which is the previous high from October 2022. As shown in my previous prediction, a short position is reasonable at this level. The double/triple top is the confirmation of that short, which increases the probability of profit significantly.
If there was a time to short in this bull channel, it would be now .
Key Points
1. Double Top Reversal Signal on the Daily Chart
2. Triple Top Reversal Signal on the 4HR Chart
3. Gap to bottom of the channel at 146.000
4. The lowest target price is the Previous Channel High of 145.000
5. RSI at 52.00, Plenty of room to fall and supports #1-4
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USDJPY Long Term SELLING Trading IdeaHello Traders
In This Chart USDJPY DAILY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today USDJPY analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (USDJPY market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on USDJPY Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
UsdJpy- New leg down after correction?As I explained in my previous post, UsdJpy could accelerate its decline and test 3 October's low.
After this anticipated drop, the pair started to correct to the upside and now it's approaching an important sell zone.
I'm looking to fade rallies around 149.50 for a new leg down.
A close above 150 zone would negate this scenario
USDJPY: The USD weakened without the catalyst of important econoIn the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar weakened, closing at the day's low, extending Tuesday's losses. Data: October building permit applications were higher than expected, but did not provide much support for the dollar. Sterling fell by nearly 40 pips following October's retail sales data, but then rebounded sharply as the US dollar weakened. The yen led the rise among major currencies at the close of trading.
Drops to an eight-week low, hovers around 147.50FX:USDJPY extended the losing streak that began on Thursday and marked an eight-week low, trading around 147.40 during the European session on Tuesday. The 147.00 psychological level emerges as the immediate support following the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 146.32.
The US Dollar (USD) has plunged to a nearly three-month low, influenced by dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed). This development is a significant factor contributing to the decline of the USD/JPY pair.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies below the 50 level, signaling a weaker sentiment for the USD/JPY pair. This could potentially prompt bearish movements toward the psychological support region around 146.00. If a decisive break occurs below this level, it may pave the way for the USD/JPY pair to navigate the area near the 50.0% retracement at the 144.60 level.
Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is positioned below the centerline and diverges below the signal line, signaling a bearish momentum in the market for the USD/JPY pair.
On the upside, the major level at 147.50 serves as the immediate barrier, followed by the psychological level at 148.00. A breakthrough above the latter could provide support for the USD/JPY pair to explore the region around the 149.00 level following the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 149.62.
USDJPY 4H: Support further decline USDJPY
New forecast
The price of the dollar pair against the yen fell to exceed the level of 149.41, and now it is trying to stabilize below it, the support level of 148.35, and stability below this level will confirm the continuation of the dominance of the downward trend in the immediate term, and the way is open to heading towards our next target at 147.87 and 146.98.
Therefore the downward scenario will be remain valid once stabilized under 148.35 level , taking into account that failure to stabilized under 148.35 level and reversed above 148.89 will support the price to rise up again and do a positive correction .
The expect range trading for today it will between resistance line 149.41 and support line 146.98.
support line : 147.87 , 146.98
resistance line : 148.89 , 149.41
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PIMCO Is Buying Yen to Brace for Imminent BOJ Monetary Policy ShPIMCO, one of the world's leading investment management firms, has taken a significant position in buying yen, indicating their preparedness for an imminent tightening of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) monetary policy.
The BOJ has long been known for its accommodative stance, but recent economic indicators and signals from policymakers suggest a potential shift towards a more hawkish approach. PIMCO's move to buy the yen serves as a clear indication that they anticipate the BOJ to take actions that could strengthen the Japanese currency.
Given PIMCO's reputation and expertise in navigating global markets, their decision to buy yen should not be taken lightly. It is crucial for us to consider the potential implications of this move and the impact it may have on the USDJPY currency pair.
Given these developments, I strongly encourage you to consider a short position on USDJPY. While this decision ultimately rests in your hands, weighing the potential risks and rewards is important. As PIMCO's move suggests, a tighter BOJ monetary policy could lead to yen appreciation, thereby weakening the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
Timing is of the essence, and it is essential to act swiftly in the face of this potential shift in the market dynamics. I recommend conducting thorough research, analyzing market trends, and consulting with your trusted advisors before making any investment decisions.
As always, it is essential to remain vigilant and adaptable in these uncertain times. The global financial landscape is constantly evolving, and it is our responsibility as traders to stay informed and make informed decisions.
If you have any questions or require further assistance, please do not hesitate to reach out. Together, we can navigate these challenging market conditions and seize the opportunities they present.
Wishing you success in your trading endeavors.