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Usdjpyanalysis

USD/JPY, Where to Next?As explained before before, USD/JPY drowned almost two percent this week, three scenarios can play out next: - Bearish scenario: Current 4H chart is evolving into a bear flag from previous TR, bears could get a second or third (depending on ur analysis) leg down towards 154.00 target: -Bullish scenario: Bulls could fight of the downtrend and reclaim 156.000 to evolve into a trading range. This will be hard as they have to reclaim 20 EMA where bears might be present. Bulls would need to show consecutive buying to show they are back in control. -Sideways trading: Trading could be sideways to reach 20 EMA on the daily before next move is decided. So far, odds favour the Bear scenario, the longer we stay below the trading range, the more likely bears are will get their bear leg. - Scalp idea for the day traders: Currently, theres an extending triangle evolving with an inside wedge top, this could be a sign bears are stepping in again. Bulls did not show strength at start of day, they got two small legs, but were not satisfied, likely to start selling again. Day could evolve into trading range day depending on reaction at day open. If extending triangle plays out and there's consecutive selling, 155 is the target with 20 EMA acting as resistance. Peace, B Setup
by Baudoouin
Bottom Wedge USD/JPY - Which side will we see a breakout from ? -> Following FX:USDJPY downfall, price almost fell two percent this week. -> Bottom wedge was identified, which side it will break down to is still to be determined. Either way, an upside breakout can justify a scalp on 5-15 min timeframe a after consecutive bull bars are seem. Looking at the other side of the coin, a downside breakout would lead to a third leg down a indicate that the bear trend is soon halting or reversing. -> Most importantly, be cautious and patient with such trades, wait for breakout and follow through buying- or selling- to place trade. Remember that USD/JPY is reversing with a strong Yen and odds favour bears, as seen with bear flag on this 4h chart: Will the bear flag will get a secong leg and gain downside momentum?, or will we have a failed trading range breakout with a short term reversal around the 156.000 area is still to be determined. B setup Peace
by Baudoouin
USD/JPY Hits One-Month LowUSD/JPY Hits One-Month Low The USD/JPY pair fell to its lowest level in a month during today’s Asian session, dropping below 155.5 yen per US dollar for the first time since 19th December. As Reuters reports: → The yen’s strengthening was driven by hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, which prompted markets to bet on a potential interest rate hike next week. → A significant majority of surveyed economists anticipate the BOJ will raise rates at one of its two meetings this quarter, with most favouring a January hike. The BOJ’s decision on rates may depend on market stability following Donald Trump’s return to the White House next Monday. His inauguration speech will be closely watched by policymakers worldwide to gauge his likely political direction. Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart shows: → The price has struggled to hold above the 158 yen-per-dollar level, which can be considered a critical barrier where bulls are unwilling to take on the risk associated with potential rate hikes. → The 157 level has been broken, transitioning from support to resistance (as indicated by the arrows). Bulls might find support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel (marked in blue), which has been in place since November last year. However, given strong fundamental factors, such as the US presidential inauguration and BOJ rate decisions, USD/JPY is likely to experience spikes in volatility that could significantly shift the supply-demand balance—not just in the short term. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDJPY and US10Y Late last summer on Aug 5th when the Yen Carry trade unwound, the S&P 500 fell more than 5% intraday and VIX spiked to 60. This marked a localized bottom on the USDJPY daily chart with US10Y making 52 week lows the following month Sept. Since then, the US10Y has been on a relentless run to the 52-week high of 4.79%. This reminds us that under the surface there might be Yen carry trade in full swing. That means traders / investors are borrowing at low interest rate in JPY and then buying the US10Y to get the interest rate differential. This is also pushing the US Dollar index to recent ATH. There might be sharp reversals when the USDJPY carry trades unwind. Watch for key levels in US10Y and DXY. US10Y at 5% might be the turning point which will mark a failed breakout at Oct 2023 highs.
by RabishankarBiswal
USD/JPY (UJ) Analysis (Daily Timeframe)The USD/JPY pair has been following a clear market cycle, transitioning from distribution to markdown , followed by accumulation , and now entering a bullish markup phase , showcasing strong bullish momentum. Key Observations: Market Phases: Distribution Phase: The bullish move ended near the 162 level , where sellers gained control, initiating a markdown. Accumulation Phase: After a significant markdown, UJ found a base around the 140 level, forming an accumulation phase with demand coming back into the market. Current Phase: The pair has now broken out of accumulation and is in a bullish move, with a well-defined structure of higher highs and higher lows. EMA Surfing and Momentum: The price is currently surfing upward along the EMAs , showing strong trend-following behavior with EMAs acting as dynamic support. The tightening of the EMAs during the accumulation phase has now expanded , supporting the continuation of the bullish move. Scenarios to Watch: Continuation to Targets: USD/JPY could continue its bullish momentum toward the short-term target near 159 and potentially the medium-term target around 162. This aligns with the ongoing strength in the USD and the current bullish structure . Pullback for Reaccumulation: A potential retracement could act as a reaccumulation phase, gathering liquidity before resuming the uptrend.
Long
by TraderOuss_LumaNex
USD/JPY showing weaknessThe USD/JPY pair has been fluctuating within a range. Recent data shows the price closing around 157.30, indicating some stability in the short term. Key support levels are around 156.24, while resistance levels are near 158.421. These levels can act as potential entry or exit points. so 156 will be a good level to short wit a red 4h candle closed near. Nver enter after a green candle only after a 4h bearish candle closed bellow 156.24. SCALP target @156.244 SWING Target @153.160
Short
by miketiger
USDJPY – in accumulation phase but undoubtedly bullish .. 13 JanWeekly – Bullish, although it has been consolidating for the past 3 weeks. Daily – same as weekly. Please note that the bears have been unable to push price lower. Price is well above the 200dma. The area around 156.20 was has been tested multiple times and provides solid support (was resistance earlier). H4 – In line with the weekly and daily charts. A pullback to 156.20 and a bullish bounce there would be ideal, however that may not happen. We could see bullish price action even earlier. I will be monitoring PA closely and look for taking an entry whenever I see convincing bullish strength. An obvious target would be the next resistance in the 161.70 region. This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!! It’s not whether you are right or wrong, but how much money you make when you are right and how much you lose when you are wrong – George Soros
Long
by Trading_Vista
USD/JPY: where is my carry trade?Hi everyone, Since my last idea, a lot has changed. My swing target of 150 was reached, and buyers took over in December. Recently, USD/JPY hit a 6-month high of ~158.5. Since that low at 150 in December we saw different major signals from UJ: "When the last buyer died..." buyers volume spike on 19 of December. Healthy accumulation on 4 of December supported the rally, showing more love for the dollar than yen. "Heyyy, I know this thing—order block!" Post-Dec 19, price rose to 158.4 with waning buyer volume and mounting shorts. OB or just noise? Suspicious either way. "Is this still an uptrend?" Price action shows small but consistent higher highs/lows. Volatility indicators hint at rising consolidation. "Dollar supremacy forever?" Yes, dollar is stronger, but corrections happen. Whether at 70 or 175 USD/JPY, dollar will still be stronger. "BoJ wouldn't intervene before 160. Are they bluffing?" May be possible, but I doubt it. The finance minister concern was very high yen depreciation and they mentioned that "we wouldn't let USD/JPY reach 160". But Japan’s MO is more stealth than spectacle I think. Lastly, for my technical analysis lovers, pitchforks . Pitchforks are a more "hipster" way to draw trendlines. Maybe also more mathematical way. They are easy, but advanced pitchfork usage may be tricky. As you see in the chart, we’re stuck between an upper bound and a demand zone. This supports my idea of consolidation, since the demand zone and the upper pitchfork are the current support and resistance. Another one for tech analysis lovers. Elliott Waves . There is a possibility that we are in the so called "elliot correction waves", which is often seen after an uptrend. Leg A was the summer drop, leg B took us to 158.5, and leg C could dip us to 136–146. Probability? No idea, but the range fits the pitchfork, Elliott theory, and interest rate differential. Your guess is as good as mine. Chapter 1: Rising Distribution – Not Your Average Wyckoff The distribution I am talking about is not the Power of Three or AMD distribution concept. For old school lovers, the distribution I mean is based on Wyckoff method. Wyckoff was an analyst who described the difference between trends and ranging markets way before traders had 3 screens with gradient indicators and fancy ways to detect the regime. In his method, there is a thing called "distribution". It is when the institutions are fed up with the uptrend and want to sell an asset. This is also when the "buys" are transferred from institutional hands to our, normal traders, hands. How does it work? FOMO, news and herd instinct. This is where "don't stand in front of an ultra-fast train" fails. Classic Wyckoff distribution : the point where institutions get off the train, and retail traders hop on thinking it’s express to the moon. Rising distributions happen when the crowd still expects an uptrend, but the big players quietly exit. Seems like they have another train plan. At least, that's what the volume delta says. :) Chapter 2: The Macro Mix US is strong. Still solid. Even with inflation and bubbles, USD rides high thanks to its post-WWII economic dominance. This allows US to export their debt until today. Debt, tech booms, and AI surges aside, the system holds. We’ve swapped dot-com booms (2000 DotCom Bubble) for AI hype and NVIDIA super-processors. Just like the early 2000s with software, we’re seeing another leap, but with AI, robotics, and LLMs instead of spreadsheets and PCs. I wont mention any other issues with US economy, you could read that in my previous idea, and Trump tariffs wouldn't help it either, so everything stays the same. Another thing, but not only concentrated on US: wealth gap. Wealth gaps grow, and some of the folks that were living right in the middle, having more than enough, but not too much, are struggling financially now, or became rich and big. But blindly piling into assets isn't the answer. Markets shift, and the rich adapt. If you want more insights about the wealth gap and how it may worsen the recession, check out the amazing videos from "Garys Economics" . A former Citi bank top trader, Gary specializes in forex, especially Yen and Swiss franc. Chapter 3: Yen vs. Dollar Carry Trade The interest rate differential is narrowing. BoJ raised their rates for the first time since the '90s. Japan’s deflationary pressures pushed change . Sure thing Japan has to change something, and they did and will do. Japan is still a tech and automotive powerhouse, but monetary policy is tricky. Wouldn’t a cheaper yen help exports? Its complicated. Dollar and euro is still doing fine, being ones of the leading currencies in the world and also leading in exports. I don't think that matters that much. Now, zoom out of the chart. Historically, USD/JPY was 138–145 at similar USD rates. Add the new yen rate, and voilà: you get my 136–146 range. ----------- Finalizing, USD/JPY is my muse. It is my main trading currency, maybe the only one. The a constant battle between east and west, logic and mystery is truly beautiful. Since Dec 19, it’s been weird for most of us. Currently with AI surging in trading, we see companies fighting to find the alpha in the market. The strategy that will always work, the key to unlocking the market. This goes on for years and didn't start only now. Markets evolve, new players enter, and unexpected events (Black Swans) rewrite everything. Nevertheless, the "holy grail" strategy doesn’t exist (yet). More and more AI models are flexible and need to be improved faster and faster. So should your strategy be, even if you are not an AI. AI or not, adaptability is your true alpha. I’ve also updated my own metrics, ditched outdated ones, and embraced new indicators and models. Learn some coding. Python, R, and Pinescript will be as essential as Excel soon. You could also start with pinescript by editing your indicators/strategies in a way, that your ideas are implemented in it. Never stop learning, even when it feels like the market is gaslighting you. Navigate the markets like an explorer: decode shifting patterns and embrace the unknown future. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own analysis before making trading decisions.
Short
by akvil3
USDJPY ANALYSIS IS READY TO FLY MUST READ THE CAPTION The chart for USD/JPY shows the following: 1. Timeframe: 1-hour chart. 2. Key Levels: Target Zone: Around 159.100, indicating a potential bullish target. Current Price: Approximately 157.933 (Sell) and 157.946 (Buy). Stop Loss: Positioned near 157.226 to manage downside risk. 3. Technical Analysis: Pattern: A potential rounding top or consolidation phase before a breakout. Scenarios: Two possible bullish outcomes are shown with arrows: A breakout above the resistance zone, aiming for the target zone (159.100). A retracement followed by a bullish move. Key Support Levels: 157.692 and below, which could act as critical zones to watch. 4. Moving Average: A moving average (possibly the 200 EMA) provides additional support near the stop-loss level. 5. Trading Idea: Buy opportunities are highlighted with strict risk management via the stop-loss placement. The chart suggests bullish momentum but emphasizes careful monitoring of price action near key levels.
Short
by Forex_Vip_Signals
#USDJPY 2HUSDJPY (2H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price is currently testing a key resistance level, which has previously acted as a barrier to upward movement. Signs of rejection at this level indicate potential selling pressure. Forecast: A sell opportunity is anticipated if the price continues to face rejection from the resistance zone, signaling a possible move downward. Key Levels to Watch: Entry Zone: Near the resistance level after confirmation of rejection. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Placed above the resistance zone or recent swing high to minimize risk. Take Profit: Target the nearest support levels for potential downside movement. Market Sentiment: Selling pressure is expected to dominate as long as the price remains below the resistance level, maintaining a bearish outlook.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
#USDJPY 2HUSDJPY (2H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price is trading within a channel pattern, respecting both support and resistance levels. Currently, it is near the upper boundary of the channel, indicating possible resistance. Forecast: Wait for a retest of the channel resistance before considering a sell position, as confirmation is required to validate a potential move downward. Key Levels to Watch: Entry Zone: After a retest and rejection from the upper boundary of the channel. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Placed above the channel resistance or recent swing high. Take Profit: Target the midline or lower boundary of the channel for potential downside movement. Market Sentiment: The setup suggests a cautious bearish bias, but confirmation signals are needed before executing a trade.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
Market Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes More GainsMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes More Gains USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 158.00 resistance. Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today - USD/JPY climbed higher above the 156.50 and 157.30 levels. - There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 157.75 on the hourly chart at FXOpen. USD/JPY Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from the 156.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 156.85 against the Japanese Yen. It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 157.30. The pair climbed above 157.50 and traded as high as 157.77. It is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 156.87 swing low to the 157.77 high. The current price action above the 157.30 level is positive. Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near 157.75. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at 157.75. The first major resistance is near 158.05. If there is a close above the 158.05 level and the RSI moves above 70, the pair could rise toward 158.80. The next major resistance is near 159.20, above which the pair could test 160.00 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is 157.30 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 156.87 swing low to the 157.77 high, below which the bears could gain strength. The next major support is visible near the 156.85 level. If there is a close below 156.85, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 156.00 support zone. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 155.45 region. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USDJPY SELL | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving to the upper boundary of the ascending channel. The volatility of the movement has decreased. The price has reached the resistance level. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad ⚜️
Short
by TheGrove
3
USD/JPY on the Verge of a Breakout: Key Levels to Watch!USD/JPY is encountering resistance at the trendline, previously a support level. The price attempted to break through earlier but faced rejection. Now, it is approaching the resistance level again, showing breakout potential. We anticipate a possible breakout above the resistance trendline. A key support zone, marked in grey, provides a critical level to watch for pullbacks or reversals. Monitor price action for confirmation. DYOR, NFA
Long
by unichartz
USDJPY BUY | Idea Trading AnalysisUSDJPY is moving in an UP trend channel. The chart broke through the dynamic Resistance line, which now acts as support. We expect a decline in the channel after testing the current level which suggests that the price will continue to rise Hello Traders, here is the full analysis. I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment. ------------------- Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad
Long
by TheGrove
1