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Usdjpybullish

USDJPY Analysis for 30/09/2024: Potential Slightly Bullish BiasThe USDJPY pair is poised for a potential slight bullish bias on 30/09/2024, driven by key fundamental and technical factors. In this article, we'll explore the major elements influencing the USDJPY pair, including monetary policy, economic data releases, and broader market sentiment. Traders and investors on TradingView should consider these factors when positioning themselves in the market. Key Drivers Supporting a Bullish Bias: 1. Federal Reserve Hawkish Tone: The Federal Reserve has maintained a hawkish stance in recent weeks, signaling its commitment to keeping interest rates elevated to combat persistent inflation. The strong U.S. dollar has been supported by the Fed’s actions, and this policy direction is expected to continue today. With U.S. interest rates relatively higher compared to Japan’s negative or near-zero rates, the USDJPY pair is likely to experience upward momentum as traders seek yield differentials. 2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Stance: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, with no indication of raising rates in the near term. This divergence in monetary policy between the BOJ and the Fed remains a key driver of USDJPY bullishness. The BOJ has consistently kept rates low, supporting the Yen's weakness against stronger currencies like the USD. 3. Positive U.S. Economic Data: Recent U.S. economic data, such as strong retail sales and consumer sentiment, has painted a robust picture of the American economy. This has bolstered confidence in the dollar, making the USDJPY more attractive to traders. In contrast, Japan’s economic outlook has been more muted, adding to the pressure on the Yen. 4. Safe-Haven Demand Moderating: Global geopolitical tensions and fears of a recession have softened in recent days, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen. The easing of these concerns has contributed to the Yen’s depreciation, while the dollar remains strong due to robust economic fundamentals. Technical Outlook for USDJPY: On the technical front, USDJPY has been trading within a well-defined upward channel. The 50-day moving average is trending higher, and the pair is currently testing key resistance levels around 149.50. A breakout above this level could signal further bullish momentum. Additionally, momentum indicators such as the RSI are not yet overbought, suggesting room for additional gains before any potential pullback. Support Levels: 148.70, 148.00 Resistance Levels: 149.50, 150.00 Conclusion: Based on the current fundamental backdrop and technical indicators, USDJPY is expected to show a slight bullish bias today, 30/09/2024. Traders should watch for any new comments from Federal Reserve officials, as well as any geopolitical developments that could impact safe-haven flows. As the divergence between the Fed and BOJ's policies remains a dominant theme, this pair could continue to push higher in the near term.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY → Huge Fall from 162.000! Heading for 155.000?USD/JPY trickled it's way just shy of 162.000 where it formed a double top reversal pattern on the Daily chart and fell hard to 157.500. Should we still be long? Or is it time to get short? How do we trade this? 🤔 As mentioned in my previous analysis from May 7th after the massive sell-off from 160.200 back down to 152.000, we should be looking for confirmation of a short before entering one. We now have a nice sell signal, the double top reversal, right after three strong pushes up in a trend. USD/JPY has been in a bull run since 2021 on the higher timeframes such as the weekly and monthly, getting short needs to be taken with extreme caution and careful planning. It is reasonable to expect the USD/JPY price to retest the 160.000 area after such a fall. The bears are going to be skittish in a bull market, the bulls are going to try and long again to get that 50% pullback to the high side. But once the price goes 200 pips to the upside after the 400 pip drop, will we see another sell-off? Or a run back to 162.000 and beyond? That's what we need to wait for, the confirmation sell candle closing on or near it's low to confirm more downside movement. It is reasonable to short this, but I would do it on the 4HR timeframe and wait for a long entry on the Daily timeframe. We should expect some support at 155.000, this trade waits for that second leg in the pullback from 162.000 to hit 155.000, give us a strong bull signal and confirmation candle to confirm a long entry around 156.000. Place the stop loss below 155.000 at 154.050, take profit #1 at 157.950 then move stop loss up to entry price, take profit #2 at 159.900, just before the key resistance of 160.000 which is also a psychological resistance. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 156.000 🟥 Stop Loss: 154.050 ✅ Take Profit #1: 157.950 ✅ Take Profit #2: 159.900 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Three pushes up after the 152.000 support confirmation to the key level of 162.000 2. Double top reversal at 162.000 followed by a 400 pip drop; sell signal 3. Look for 50% pullback toward 160.000 and a rejection at that key level to manifest the second leg down to the 155.000 area. 4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward long trade up to 159.900. 5. RSI near 41.00 and far below the Moving Average, supports pullback to the upside before another fall. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades and start looking for reversals. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
1
USDJPY → Aiming for 176.500!? Let's Dig In.USD/JPY broke ascending triangle pattern at the 152.00 Resistance level per my last analysis. Since then, we have seen the completion of the measured move to 154.500 followed by a third leg up to 158.350! Is this the moment to long? Or are we in for a hard sell-off? Previous Analysis: How do we trade this? 🤔 I would not long the market open. After a strong Friday push, traders are far more likely to take profits, likely pulling the price down to the 156.000-157.000 range with the possibility of a hard wick to the 153.000-154.000 area. That being said, we should remain long-biased and buy these pullbacks, as USD/JPY has been on this bull trend since January 2021. This trade pertains to the Weekly timeframe. I would drill into the 4HR and Daily to find more precise entries. It's reasonable to assume the pullback at this level, so we should look for a bounce at one of the key areas mentioned and enter a long position. On the Weekly, aim for a first take profit of 169.500 where half the position is taken off the table, then move the stop loss up to the entry price. The second take profit should be taken just before the 1978 key level of 176.900. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 156.700 🟥 Stop Loss: 150.300 ✅ Take Profit #1: 169.500 ✅ Take Profit #2: 175.900 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Breakout of key 152.000 price level 2. Strong bullish price action completing the measured move to 154.500 3. Third leg to 158.350 complete, wait for a pullback 4. Enter a 1:3 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:2 Risk/Reward. 5. RSI at 74.00 and above the Moving Average, supports pullback. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
1
USDJPY → At 152.000 Resistance! Will it break to 160.000?USD/JPY has been bullish since January 2021 and is currently in an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a potential push through the 152.000 resistance level. Is this the moment to long? How do we trade this? 🤔 We need to wait for a confirmed breakout of 152.000. The probability of a breakout is high, but we need the confirmation of support at 152.000 to justify a long entry. Once we see a strong bull candle off of support, a 1:2 Risk/Reward on the Weekly timeframe is a straightforward trade to take. The RSI is around 60.00 and above the Moving Average, providing enough headroom for a move to the upside. It's also reasonable to take a long trade on the Daily timeframe which will allow you to get an earlier entry and a better Risk/Reward, but the Weekly timeframe provides us with a clearer picture of the situation. When Take Profit #1 is hit, half of the position should be sold, the stop loss should be moved to the entry price, and the second half of the position should go to Take Profit #2. This locks in profits after the first take profit which is at 1:1 Risk/Reward. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 153.570 🟥 Stop Loss: 150.900 ✅ Take Profit #1: $156.400 ✅ Take Profit #2: $158.900 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Ascending Triangle at 152.000 Resistance level, a bullish pattern. 2. 30EMA providing key support above the ascending support band. 3. Wait for a breakout of 152.000 resistance and confirmation of support to long 4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward. 5. RSI at 60.00 and above the Moving Average, supports long bias. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
USDJPY → About to Breakout to New Highs? Let's Maximize Profits!USDJPY is on its third leg up in this bull channel that started at 141.000. We're near the top of Resistance Zone, is a long justified? How do we trade this? 🤔 We need confirmation of a breakout to justify a long. After the initial bull run to 152.000, USDJPY pulled back with three legs to 140.200 and followed with a run to our current position of just over 149.000. The price action is technically at a new high in this run which could be the top of the third and final leg up. Given the two strong bull bar closes on February 2nd and 8th and the lack of a sell signal, I do not believe this leg is over yet. What we need is a close above the Resistance Zone at 150.000 followed by a test of the top of Resistance as support. Once we see that support, it's reasonable to enter a long position with a 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio. Take half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward which is 151.200, move the stop loss up to the entry price to lock in profits, then swing the second half above the previous 152.000 high. 152.000 is a significant resistance area and I would be cautious to assume we'll make it to that price, however, the trend is our friend until the very end. Until we have a reason to change our bias, we must remain long. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 150.385 🟥 Stop Loss: $149.250 ✅ Take Profit #1: $151.200 ✅ Take Profit #2: $152.650 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Two strong legs up in a micro bull channel. 2. Third leg in progress, strong bull bar closes on February 2nd and 8th, indicating more upward momentum. 3. Near the top of the Resistance Zone, wait for a close above and test of Resistance as Support. 4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward. 5. RSI at 63.00 and above the moving average, supports long bias. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
1
USDJPY → On the way to 152.000? Let's Maximize Profits!USDJPY is on its third leg up in this bull trend and heading toward a Resistance Zone at 149.350. Should we consider shorting the resistance? Or longing a pullback? How do we trade this? 🤔 Longing a pullback is the more probable trade. While we are looking at the third leg up in this bull trend (a situation where we may want to refrain from longing), we do not have any sign of a sell signal in sight. The RSI is over 70.00 near a Resistance Zone which means we should wait for a pullback toward the bull trend line near the 147.500 area and wait for a strong bull response. The Resistance Zone is the result of a high-volume price area; look to the left on the chart to see that data. Once we see a strong bull bar closing on or near its high off of that trend line, it's reasonable to take a long position at a 1:2 Risk/Reward Ratio. Take half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward (149.600) just into the Resistance Zone, move your take profit up to the entry price to lock in profits, then swing the latter half of your position to 151.100 or until you see a sell signal near the previous high of 152.000. The probability of profit weakens as the trend moves into the third and fourth legs and therefore, the position size of this trade should be smaller to reduce our initial risk. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 148.100 🟥 Stop Loss: 146.600 ✅ Take Profit #1: 149.600 ✅ Take Profit #2: 151.100 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Third leg up in a bull channel 2. Near a Resistance Zone 3. Gap back down to the Bull Trend line 4. RSI at 80.00 and above the moving average, supports a pullback 5. Wait for the price to come back down to the bull trend and bounce to enter a trade 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
1
USDJPY → Bull Trend 1st Leg Complete! Long Again? Let's Answer.USD/JPY broke out of its descending wedge last week in a fantastic move toward the Resistance Zone (Now the Support Zone). We capitalized on that trade, you can find the details in the chart below. Are we ready for another long? USDJPY Trade - Last Week: How do we trade this? 🤔 We finished last week with a wild doji candle (one bar trading range) just above the 30EMA. That may have completed the first leg up in this new bull trend which has yet to be determined if it's a pullback on the macro bear trend or the start of another push up to higher highs. If it's a pullback in the bear trend, then we should expect no more than two legs to the upside before the price falls down again. If this is another run toward 152.000, then we should expect at least three legs to the upside. We do have justification to long on the Daily or 4HR. The Daily chart shows weakness above the 30EMA, the 4HR chart shows us stuck just below the 200EMA as shown in the following chart: USDJPY 4HR Chart: Both RSI's call for a pullback; the 4HR is high and below the Moving Average, and the Daily is around 50.00 but has a gap back down to the Moving Average. We need to wait for a pullback to happen which will likely bring the price toward the bottom of the Support Range around 143.800. At that price area, we need to look for a strong buy signal telling us we're going up for a second leg. Until then, it's best to wait on the sidelines for more price action and an optimal entry. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 144.350 🟥 Stop Loss: 143.100 ✅ Take Profit: 146.850 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Breakout from Descending Wedge 2. 1st Leg up Potentially Complete 3. Wait for Pullback to Bottom of Support Zone Area. 4. Look for Bull Confirmation near the 143.800 Area to Long. 5. RSI at 52.00 and above Moving Average. Bias to Long, but wait for Gap to Close. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 Traders often get trapped trying to trade the end of a second leg thinking a third leg is coming. Pullbacks often have two legs and when the third leg fails, it's in part because the traders stop loss is hit, causing the price to go the opposite direction of their trade and continuing the macro trend. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Long
by TraderEngineering
USDJPY → Descending Wedge Bullish Pattern! Should We Long Here?USDJPY is forming a descending wedge pattern signaling bullish sentiment and setting us up for a long position. Are we in a position to short now? How do we trade this? 🤔 We have the wicks! But we need confirmation. We've had three pushes down that include two large wicks and some nice bullish price action that followed. What we need now is a push and a close above the Daily 30EMA to confirm the move up. These conditions will give us enough probability to enter a long. I'm playing this trade conservatively because we do have a few items working against us: 1. Lack of a Higher High 2. The Former Support Zone could act as a resistance 3. The Daily 200EMA is right above that former Support Zone (now Resistance). That being said, we have a setup for a long scalp and if we size our position properly, this is a good opportunity to grab some market movement. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 142.200 🟥 Stop Loss: 140.000 ✅ Take Profit: 144.400 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Descending Wedge after Extensive Bear Run. Bias to Long. 2. Last three touches of Support had Strong Wicks. Bias to Long. 3. Look for break above 30EMA followed by Test of Support. 4. Enter 1:1 Long Scalp with Confirmation 5. RSI at 41.00 and above Moving Average. Bias to Long. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 Descending Wedges signal an increased probability of a trend reversal. Combined with strong buy bars (candles with large wicks on the bottom), creates conditions where a reversal trade is reasonable. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Long
by TraderEngineering
10
USDJPY → Caught in a Bear Trend! About to Reverse? Let's look.USDJPY has been falling in a bear trend since it's double top at last years high of 152.000. We saw a great bull response candle on December 7th and the close of a slightly lower low on December 13th. We may have had the first leg up in a bull reversal, but do we have the data to support it? How do we trade this? 🤔 Short answer, no. We need confirmation that we've hit a strong support zone and we do have *some* data to support that. December 7th, good wick on the underside of a buy candle followed by a run up, end of the second leg down. December 13th, slightly lower low but a strong bull run to the upside late in the week, end of the third leg down. This means we need to be looking for strong support since we're starting to get strong support signals. What we need is a double bottom in the 141.000-141.200 area. A strong buy signal bar and confirmation to provide us with enough probability to enter a long trade. It's reasonable to scalp at a 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio with hesitancy that this is truly a reversal or even a trading range. We can scalp for now and wait for a third test of support to give us even more probability for a swing trade at a 1:2 or 1:3 Risk/Reward. Stop loss should be below the double bottom and take profit should be near the previous support, now resistance. Until then, it's wise to wait for that support to reveal itself or the alternative, we break down for another 4th leg. At this time, we assess the chart and look for entries again. 💡 Trade Ideas 💡 Long Entry: 142.600 🟥 Stop Loss: 140.500 ✅ Take Profit: 144.700 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Strong Bull Response Candle followed by slightly lower low, third leg down. 2. Strong Bull candles at the end of the last run up, first leg up in Bull reversal? 3. Pulling back to previous low, look for Double Bottom or Breakdown to new Low. 4. If Double Bottom, look to Long 1:1 scalp half position size, may swing other half. 5. RSI at 45.00 and above Moving Average. Reversal Trade Opportunity, Wait for Confirmation. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 Trends typically have three legs in either direction. Signals of a reversal include strong buy or sell bars with large wicks, higher highs and lower lows get weaker, and responses to the reverse direction get stronger. Confirmation lies with double and triple bottoms with a strong candle closing on or near its low/high. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Long
by TraderEngineering
USDJPY → Bear Run Complete! Bounce back to 152.000? Let's AnswerUSDJPY has officially broken out of the bull channel it's been in since February 2023 and fell hard into the Weekly 200EMA! The final Daily bear candle closed with a large wick over 1/3 the total size and the following Daily candle closed with a long tail as well. Does that mean we're going up? How do we trade this? 🤔 A bear breakout on a bull channel after the double top reversal is usually a signal that we're about to enter a trading range (sideways price action). We have a good show of Support at the 200EMA and possibly up to the previous high in the bull channel between 143.850 and 144.850, but we need confirmation to ensure that this Support zone is real which includes a strong bull followthrough candle on the Daily chart. Look to long toward the bottom of the trading range after it's been established, an entry around the 145.000 area is reasonable looking for a 1:1 scalp or 1:2 swing on a lower timeframe. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 145.500 🟥 Stop Loss: 143.200 ✅ Take Profit: 150.100 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Bear Breakout of Bull Channel, Entering Trading Range. 2. Three Legs Down to Daily 200EMA. 3. Two Large Wicks on 200EMA, Look for Confirmation. 4. Trend Change, Establishing Trading Range between 145.000 and 152.000. 5. RSI at 35.00 and below Moving Average. Wait for Confirmation to Long. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Long
by TraderEngineering
2
USDJPY → Drop to 144.000!? Or Fly back to 152.000? Let's Answer.USDJPY fell from the double top as predicted in last week's analysis, hitting my take profits all the way down to 147.120. Will there be more downside or are we ripe for a rip back to 152.000? How do we trade this? 🤔 This analysis shows us three clean support areas: 146.000 (Bull Channel Support), 145.000 (Previous High), and 144.000 (200EMA). It's reasonable to zoom into small timeframes and look for short scalp setups down to those levels. Since the macro trend is bullish, I would be careful to hold any shorts now that the gap from 152.000 has closed the majority of the way. The RSI is still below the moving average and has *some* room to fall, supporting the short-term bear bias. Long-term, look to get long! We'll need a strong show of support with a bull signal bar and confirmation candle closing on or near its high and for the RSI to head upward breaking above the Moving Average. 💡 Trade Ideas 💡 Short Entry: 146.850 🟥 Stop Loss: 150.000 ✅ Take Profit: 143.700 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:1 Long Entry: 145.500 🟥 Stop Loss: 143.200 ✅ Take Profit: 150.100 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Bull Channel, Bias to Long. 2. Double Top Reversal Signal. Still Gaps to Fill. 3. Wait for Support at Channel Support, Previous High, or 200EMA. 4. Previous Channel High of 145.000 Final Target. 5. RSI at 35.00, below Moving Average. Supports Short-term Short, Long-Term Long. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and comment if you found this analysis useful!
Long
by TraderEngineering
Bullish Outlook on USDJPY- 5 Jun 2023Currently, there is bullish order flow, with higher lows and higher highs created. A break above upside confirmation at 140.80, followed by a throwback to support zone at 138.80, which nears the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, could provide bullish acceleration towards the resistance zone at 142.00, which coincides with the 100% Fibonacci extension level. Price is currently hovering above ichimoku cloud and 20 EMA, supporting our bullish bias.
Long
by Salzworth