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Usdjpyforecast

USDJPY Carry Trade PressureThis summer, quiet markets favored the carry trade. Popular funding currencies here are still the JPY and the CNY. The carry trade involves borrowing low-interest currency and investing in high-interest currency to profit from interest rate differential and exchange rate movements. Traders often use JPY and CNY as funding currencies due to their low-interest rates and stable exchange rates, with USD being a popular target currency due to its higher interest rates and a strong economy. A higher USD/JPY means that the USD appreciates against the JPY, which is good for the carry trade. A lower USD/JPY means that the JPY is appreciating against the USD, which is bad for the carry trade. Short-covering rallies in the JPY may happen during risk-off periods, such as the bond sell-off in early August. However, the carry trade can only be disrupted by a consistent increase in volatility. July's adjustment to the Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control, which involved raising the cap on 10-year JGB yields to 1.00% from 0.5%, did not result in a stronger yen. No additional changes by the Bank of Japan are expected until late October. It seems that the BoJ may have to intervene once more if the USD/JPY goes above 145/146 in order to limit its topside. If we see a weaker dollar in 4Q as well as some additional BoJ adjustments will may see it push back down to 130. Just a small note, I did not enter the trade yet. For now it remains an idea
Short
by RomanoRnr
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upIn Japan, the Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted that underlying inflation remains slightly below the 2% target during a Federal Reserve research symposium. This observation reaffirms the central bank's commitment to maintaining the current monetary policy approach. Despite core consumer inflation in Japan hitting 3.1% in July, companies passing on higher costs have sustained inflation above the 2% target for the 16th consecutive month. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole symposium solidified the Fed's intention to uphold a 'higher for longer' outlook on interest rates and bond yields. This stance is a boon for dollar enthusiasts, especially considering the contrasting economic scenarios. The U.S. economy is exhibiting robust performance, with the latest Atlanta Fed tracking estimate indicating a near-6% annualized growth rate. The widening short-dated yield spreads, which often influence exchange rates, favor the dollar over the Yen in recent weeks. This shift enhances the potential for the dollar to ascend into a higher trading range relative to the Yen. As we navigate the upcoming week, it's crucial to consider these significant market drivers. USDJPY Technical Analysis: In this video, we conduct an in-depth technical analysis of the USDJPY chart, carefully examining the current market structure which is evidently bullish. Our primary focus is still within the key zone of 146.500, which will serve as our center of focus ahead of the upcoming week. As price action remains within this zone, it becomes an area of interest that has led to choppy consolidation before a clear direction emerges. The market's reaction around this area at the beginning of the new week will heavily influence the trajectory of price action in the days to come. Join me on this journey as we explore potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Be sure to stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together. Wishing you the best of luck as you chart your course in the USDJPY market this week. #USDJPY #technicalanalysis #tradingopportunities #inflation #monetarypolicy #Fed #interestrates #economicanalysis #Forextrading Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
USDJPY - Short - Idea**USD/JPY Technical Analysis: ** Currency Pair: USD/JPY Current Price: 146.400 The USD/JPY pair is trading at 146.400 after a strong upward movement, it seems that buyers are not as interested as before. This shows on the Daily chart's RSI, which is a tool that helps us understand the market. The RSI is showing a clear divergence, which means things might change soon. I believe the sellers could take control soon, so I'm making a trade. I'm selling the pair at 146.400. To protect myself, I've set a Stop Loss at 147.000. If all goes well, my take profit is at 145.400. This means the reward is potentially 100 pips, while the risk is about 60 pips. Remember, trading has risks, so it's important to be careful. I'm sharing this analysis to help make decisions, but it's always smart to keep an eye on the market in case things change.
Short
by MHasnain
4
Analyzing the bearish case for USD/JPY Hello everyone, in this analysis, we will take a look at the bearish scenario for USD/JPY. As you can see from the chart, USD/JPY is currently at the upper trend line of the rising channel, which increases the probability of a reversal. 📌Yesterday, a bearish daily candlestick had formed at the upper TL. So, if price doesn't rise above 147, we can expect a reversal back to the 141 level. 📌 My recommendation is to sell the rallies in USDJPY@146.50-147 with Stop loss above the upper TL and TP at 141
Short
by MarcellusLUX
USD/JPY: Long Trading OpportunityUSD/JPY Daily USD/JPY breaks the range and uptrend continues to the next level 151.94. SUGGESTED TRADE: BUY USD/JPY ENTRY - around 147.130 SL - 144.400 TP - 151.600 Client Sentiment: Retail trader data shows 73% of traders are net-short. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd client sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than the last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias. Keep It Simple and Always Trade With the Trend! Please, Support Our Work with Like & Comment! Thank You!
Long
by ForexWithTsanev
USD/JPY's 30-Minute Support and ResistanceIn the intricate realm of forex trading, precision guides every move. Every level, and every fluctuation holds profound significance. Let's delve into the technical intricacies shaping the journey of the USD/JPY pair within the 30-minute timeframe. Steadying the Path: Dual Support Levels In the heart of these crucial moments, USD/JPY establishes its path with the presence of two distinct support levels: Primary Support - 145.722: This forms the primary anchor for the pair, laying the groundwork for potential rebounds and recoveries. Secondary Support - 146.273: A supplementary layer of support in case the pair faces heightened downward pressure, bolstering its capacity to resist further descent. Overcoming Barriers: Resistance Comes to Light However, the journey forward is characterized by barriers. The pair faces a single resistance point that stands as a formidable hurdle, demanding a determined push to surmount: Resistance 1 at 146.631: This pivotal juncture marks the principal challenge for USD/JPY's upward advance. A successful breach could signal a shift in the underlying market sentiment, possibly opening avenues for further ascension. Guiding Strategy: Plotting the Trajectory For traders and astute observers, the interplay between USD/JPY and these support and resistance levels is a treasure trove of insights. Each movement, every shift, holds key clues about the evolving market sentiment. The dual supports at 145.722 and 146.273 serve as a strong foundation, providing opportunities for potential recoveries. Yet, the obstacle presented by the resistance at 146.631 underscores the necessity of a concerted effort to propel the pair upward. As time ticks within this 30-minute window, the movements of USD/JPY unfold like an engaging narrative. The interplay between support and resistance, between the aspirations of buyers and the strategies of sellers, crafts a dynamic storyline that traders closely follow, seeking to unravel the near-term trajectory of this captivating currency pair.
by enclavefx_Analaysis
BOJ Intervention Needed as Yen Continues to WeakenAs avid participants in the forex market, we must remain vigilant and proactive in monitoring this situation, as it may have significant implications for our trading strategies and overall market stability. The USDJPY exchange rate has experienced a persistent upward trend in recent weeks, primarily driven by the yen's continuous depreciation. This trend can have far-reaching consequences for global trade, investment flows, and economic stability if left unchecked. It is high time that we collectively address this issue and urge the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to intervene appropriately to restore balance and mitigate the potential risks of such rapid currency fluctuations. The BOJ's intervention is crucial to ensure that market forces do not push the yen into a fragile position, which could lead to unintended consequences. While some currency depreciation can benefit export-oriented economies, an overly weakened yen may spark concerns of competitive devaluation, leading to retaliatory measures and a destabilized international trading environment. Therefore, I implore each of you to monitor the USDJPY exchange rate in the short term closely. Keep a watchful eye for any signs of a potential dip in this currency pair, as it could indicate an opportune moment for the BOJ to step in and stabilize the yen's value. We can collectively contribute to maintaining a balanced and fair forex market by staying informed and alert. Additionally, I encourage you to spread awareness about the importance of BOJ intervention among your fellow traders, colleagues, and industry contacts. Let us unite in our call for action, urging the BOJ to take appropriate measures to address the weakening yen. Together, our voices can carry weight and help safeguard the stability of the forex market. In conclusion, let us remain proactive, concerned, and engaged in monitoring the USDJPY exchange rate. By doing so, we can actively encourage the BOJ to intervene when necessary, ensuring a more stable and predictable forex market for all participants.
by bryandowningqln
14
USDJPY Analysis 27Aug2023I analyze USDJPY using the D1 time frame so that we can know in general terms the trends that are occurring and the possibilities that could occur in the future. If you look at the series of waves that have occurred, currently there is a correction in wave B with the price forming waves a-b-c-d-e and heading to the QM area. by adding the RSI indicator we can see that the price has entered the saturation area and there is a divergence on the RSI. one of the signs that in the future there will be a reversal.
by Hokusai_FX
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upThe USDJPY landscape is a complex interplay of monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan, actively influencing the Yen's weakening. Yet, optimism surrounding the peak of US interest rates introduces an intriguing caveat to the Greenback's ascent. Federal Reserve minutes unveiled this week emphasize a consensus among committee members about "significant upside risks to inflation", amplifying the allure of further tightening. Amid robust economic data – particularly retail sales – a compelling case for heightened tightening unfolds. Meanwhile, market participants exercise caution, mindful of potential FX intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), evoking memories of last year's intervention triggered by similar price action levels. The yen's depreciation heightens vigilance, with traders poised for possible Japanese authority intervention. As attention shifts to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where top central banks gather annually, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech. Anticipated next Friday, Powell's address is a golden opportunity for insights into the interest rate outlook, potentially laying the groundwork for the Fed's next policy steps. USDJPY Technical Analysis: In this video, we conduct an in-depth technical analysis of the USDJPY chart, carefully examining the current market structure. Our primary focus is still within the key zone of 145.000, which will serve as our center of focus ahead of the upcoming week. As price action remains within this zone, it becomes an area of interest that has led to choppy consolidation before a clear direction emerges. The market's reaction around this area at the beginning of the new week will heavily influence the trajectory of price action in the days to come. Join me on this journey as we explore potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Be sure to stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together. Wishing you the best of luck as you chart your course in the USDJPY market this week. Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry
3
USDJPY I Approaching strong reversal areaWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
19
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | Follow-upIn light of recent data, Thursday's release indicated that U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation for July met expectations, mirroring the previous month's trajectory. This outcome has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates in September. However, this development has concurrently prompted a reduction in expectations for a rate cut within the current year, leading to the anticipation of sustained rates at their 22-year highs. Consequently, this adjustment has exerted downward pressure on risk-oriented assets, inducing a sense of caution among investors reluctant to engage with Asian currencies, given the prevailing robust outlook on U.S. interest rates. As a result, the Japanese yen bore the brunt of this shift, registering a decline to a one-month low during overnight trading, only to stabilize in proximity to the pivotal 145 threshold on Friday. However, it is noteworthy that trading volumes remained subdued due to a market holiday observed in the country. USDJPY Technical Analysis: In this video, we conduct an in-depth technical analysis of the USDJPY chart, carefully examining the current market structure. Our primary focus is within the key zone of 145.000, which will serve as our center of focus ahead of the upcoming week. As price action remains within this zone, it becomes an area of interest that could lead to choppy consolidation before a clear direction emerges. The market's reaction around this area at the beginning of the new week will heavily influence the trajectory of price action in the days to come. Join me on this journey as we explore potential trading opportunities using trendlines, key levels, and chart patterns. Be sure to stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section as we navigate the dynamic USDJPY market together. Wishing you the best of luck as you chart your course in the USDJPY market this week. Disclaimer Notice: Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances. Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it. Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.
by darcsherry