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Usdjpyforecast

USDJPY Forecast: Insights for the New Week & Follow-Up AnalysisIn this video, we delve into a comprehensive technical analysis of USDJPY, focusing on its bullish and bearish sentiments through price action analysis. Join us as we uncover potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week by identifying key support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe. On Friday, the Japanese Yen experienced a decline after a three-and-a-half-day struggle, fueled by the strengthening of the US dollar. This was in response to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's reiterated stance on the necessity of additional rate hikes. During his two-day testimony before Congress, Powell emphasized that U.S. interest rates may rise at least twice more this year to counteract high inflation. Market reactions to Powell's comments led to a significant increase in the likelihood of further rate hikes in July, with markets pricing in a nearly 75% chance of such action. Data released from the Japanese economic docket on Friday indicated that consumer inflation slightly exceeded expectations for the 12-month period up to May. However, a core reading excluding food and fuel prices surged to a 42-year high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in Japan. These trends are placing increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to consider tightening its monetary policy, although the bank has recently reiterated its commitment to maintaining its ultra-loose policy. Nonetheless, the potential for Japanese monetary policy tightening may contribute to a resurgence in the yen, which has faced considerable downward pressure due to the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan. Additionally, the Japanese currency is rapidly approaching levels that could prompt government intervention in currency markets. USDJPY Technical Analysis (Price Action): In this video, I offered an extensive analysis of the USDJPY market's current structure, with a primary focus on price action-based technical analysis. Special attention was given to key support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe, uncovering potential trading opportunities for the upcoming week. Notably, I highlighted a key level around 143.900, which was recently tested and represents the highest price reached this year. The market's response to this level at the start of the new week will play a pivotal role in determining the direction of price action in the upcoming week. Stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section to stay informed about further technical developments in the USDJPY market. I wish you the best of luck this week as you navigate the USDJPY market. Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
1
USDJPY: USD's miraculous recovery journey with JPY downturnS&P500 futures have recorded slight losses before the market opens as investors are being cautious about the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell at the European Central Bank (ECB) forum of Central Banking. Investor sentiment has become more risk-averse as they hope that Powell will continue to express a cautious stance. The US Dollar Index has experienced a significant increase, supported by expectations of a cautious approach from Powell and stronger US Durable Goods Orders data. The US Census Bureau reported that Durable Goods Orders grew by 1.7%, surpassing the market's expectation of a 1% decline. This data for May has outperformed the previous figure of 1.2% in April. Jerome Powell is expected to provide a cautious approach as core inflation in the US economy remains persistent and labor market conditions continue to be tight, despite higher interest rates and strict credit conditions set by commercial and regional banks. On the other hand, a Reuters survey suggests that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may intervene in foreign exchange (FX) movements if the Japanese Yen weakens to 145.00 against the US Dollar. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated his commitment to respond appropriately to excessive FX movements if necessary. Later this week, the market will closely monitor Tokyo
Long
by Sphyn-Trader
4
USDJPY Forecast: Insights for the New Week & Follow-Up AnalysisThe Japanese yen experienced a slight decline as the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose policy. However, it managed to recover some of its early losses following the BOJ decision, though it remained close to seven-month lows against the dollar. The BOJ opted to keep interest rates unchanged at record lows and expressed its intention to continue the yield curve control policy in support of economic growth. The bank also forecasted above-average strength in the Japanese economy for the year. The yen had been weighed down by expectations of a dovish BOJ, especially as the Federal Reserve signaled a relatively hawkish stance, indicating a widening gap between Japanese and U.S. interest rates. While the Fed had previously paused rate hikes, it foresees at least two more increases this year due to inflation trending above the central bank's target range. Nevertheless, weak U.S. economic indicators such as slowing industrial production, steady jobless claims, and sluggish retail sales raised doubts about the extent to which the Fed could continue raising interest rates. Anticipated higher U.S. interest rates for a longer period are likely to restrict significant gains in Asian markets. In the upcoming week, we will focus on economic events from both the U.S. and Japan, including the BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and the Fed Chair's testimony before Congress. How will these events impact the USDJPY from a technical standpoint? During the video, I provide detailed analysis of the USDJPY's bullish and bearish sentiment, primarily focusing on price action-based technical indicators. We identify key support and resistance levels within the 4-hour timeframe to uncover potential trading opportunities. Notably, we highlight a significant level around 142.000 that was recently tested, and how market participants react to this level at the start of the new week may play a critical role in determining the direction of price action in the upcoming week. Stay connected to our channel, follow our updates, and engage in the comment section to stay informed about further developments in the USDJPY market. Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
USDJPY: Economic volatility!During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair faced selling pressure, causing a partial erosion of the previous day's gains that had exceeded the 144.00 level, reaching a new high since November 2022. The spot price is currently trading around 143.80, down nearly 0.20% for the day, although any significant downward adjustments still seem elusive. Japanese officials continue to issue warnings against the recent weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY), which is considered a key factor driving some long-term relaxation around the USD/JPY pair. In fact, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated on Tuesday that they will closely monitor the forex market with a sense of urgency and will react accordingly if currency movements become excessive. This warning was reiterated by top Japanese currency diplomat Masato Kanda earlier this Wednesday.
Long
by Sphyn-Trader
2
USDJPY Trade SETUP H4The USDJPY closed at 143.70. Speaking of its resistance, the area around 144.06 will act as a resistance area. If a candle rejects from this level, you can open a sell position with a stop loss of 40 pips and target the support level at 142.20. I hope we can make a good profit from this trade. Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.
by ShaniTradingHub
USDJPY 23June2023if you look at the elliot notation and fibo extension placement, then wave 3 is right at 1.618, which means wave 3 is already 1.6x longer than wave 1. I want to predict where the USDJPY price moves using the fibo extension, and it could be that the price goes to the fibo extension of 1.618 as well. if you look at the trendline, there is a possibility that the price will respond positively to the trendline, which also meets the fibo extension area. I think this notation is quite correct, because wave 3 is not the shortest wave. as evidenced by the price at 1,618, and wave 5 could be a bullish continuation, this type of bullish can run for quite a long time. if you want to go short, it's better to wait for a fairly positive bearish confirmation.
by Hokusai_FX
We Could expect USDJPY to make a monthly higher higherThe reason why I am still firmly convinced that this movement is going to happen is supported by several compelling factors. Let's explore them in detail: 1.Non-commercials continue to aggressively add long positions in this currency pair. This indicates a strong bullish sentiment and suggests that these market participants have high expectations for its future performance. Their sustained interest and confidence in this pair contribute to my conviction. 2.Taking a closer look at the Monthly time frame, we can observe a clear and well-defined bullish structure. This pattern provides additional validation for the anticipated movement. The consistent upward trajectory of the price points towards a potential upward trend that could further strengthen the case for a positive outcome. 3.Another crucial aspect to consider is the unanimous agreement among all members of the Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding the likelihood of another interest rate hike. This collective stance underscores the consensus among policymakers that an increase in interest rates is imminent. Such a move is expected to bolster the value of the dollar, as it signifies a strengthening of the US economy and reflects the Fed's confidence in its monetary policies. 4.In contrast, the interest rate in Japan remains unchanged and continues to be in negative territory. This divergence between the interest rate policies of Japan and the United States further reinforces the potential for a favorable outcome in the currency pair. The persistent negative interest rate in Japan could lead to increased selling pressure on the yen, potentially benefiting the other currency in the pair. Considering these factors collectively, it becomes evident why my conviction remains steadfast regarding the occurrence of this movement. The combination of aggressive long positions by non-commercials, a bullish structure on the Monthly time frame, the anticipated interest rate hike by the Fed, and the contrasting interest rate policies between Japan and the United States all contribute to a compelling case for the expected movement.
Long
by Wiiso
USDJPY SHORT TERM TRADE IDEAThe price is extremely bullish in all major time frames. If we look at the non-commercial's positions, we can see that short are aggressively increasing in JPY. Meaning JPY is getting weaker. Monthly: The price is in the retracement phase. If you take the fib form low to high of the retracement, .5 fib level is in confluence with important structure that the price respected. Daily The price created the 123-pattern stablishing a low. The price liquidated important sell side liquidity. We can expect the price to chase important buy side liquidity. Non-commercials are aggressively adding shorts in JPY. This mean that they are selling the JPY aggressively. JPY long positions: 40,736 short: 136,929. Added last week short: 3,976 long: 19,509 As you can see short are way more and they keep aggressively adding more shorts.
Long
by Wiiso
6
USDJPY: Movements in a volatile market!The hurdle for raising rates this month is higher, implying fresh US Dollar falls The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is the final significant piece of information before the bank's decision. However, it's doubtful that it will alter the current situation. The bank's inclination to take a break, as indicated by May's Nonfarm Payrolls and echoed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, suggests that they will stop raising interest rates. As bond markets haven't priced in this possibility entirely, there's potential for the US Dollar to weaken further in conjunction with returns on US debt.
Short
by Sphyn-Trader
2