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USD/JPY stuck below 150 ahead of Japan CPI reportSoaring government bond benefits continue to dominate the pair's price action. Investors still need to watch out for Japan which will likely rate closer to 150. USD/JPY fell near 148.80, but quickly recovered to around 149.50 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to announce its inflation forecast for fiscal years 2023 and 2024 earlier. On Tuesday, Bloomberg forecast the BoJ's new core CPI for fiscal 2023 could reach 3%, up from 2.5% in July and more than 2% for fiscal 2024. Inflation Forecast higher shows that the BoJ is confident ahead of salary increase negotiations next spring.
Short
by NicoTradingMaster
USD/JPY Bullish long RangeUS Dollar Dips but Finds Buyers The US dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading week, but found enough support underneath to turn things around. The ¥138 level is an area that a lot of people had been paying attention to as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have marked on the chart, and of course the “market memory” that comes with the top of the ascending triangle is coming into the picture. If we turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the ¥142 level. If we break above the ¥142 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥148 level which is the measured move from the ascending triangle. You can see that we broke out exactly where you would anticipate seeing that based upon standard technical analysis, so I do think this is a market that you are a buyer of dips on given enough time, and will have to look at it through that prism. I have no interest in shorting this market, and I do believe that as soon the market breaks above the top of this candlestick, we will probably continue to see a lot of upward momentum and a move to the upside. If we were to break down below the ¥138 level, then it could see a fairly steep correction, but right now I don’t see that in the cards, and I believe we probably still have the possibility of a stretch higher. The US dollar continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve being tight while the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control. BoJ Governor in no hurry to alter BoJ monetary policy path Key levels to watch for USD/JPY for the current bearish continuation scenario BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA IN NO HURRY TO ALTER COURSE BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank is in no rush to alter the path of monetary policy despite interest rates holding above the 2% target since early 2022. The pick up in inflation has been attributed to supply side effects created by the demand and supply mismatch brought about as a result of the Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war. However, this morning at a platform for Japan’s government draft economic policy, it was declared that the government will eradicate a deflationary mindset and move towards ending deflation with bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and with its growth strategy. Additionally, the draft policy issued hope that the BoJ achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target, accompanied by welcomed wage growth. The news helped the pair continue to ease lower in early European trading. USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND KEY LEVELS OF INTEREST USD/JPY turned lower at the beginning of the week when news of a provisional agreement to raise the debt ceiling filtered into the market. Since then, interest rate expectations have reversed course, initially favouring a 25-basis point hike and now largely favouring the no hike or “skip” outcome. As such, a weaker dollar has benefitted the yen which now sees the pair on track for 5 consecutive days of declines. The 138.20 and 138.00 zone of support currently appears as the next area of support, followed by the 200 SMA which hovers around 137.27 at present. The downward momentum is supported by the return from overbought territory on the RSI towards neutral levels, alleviating pressure on Japanese officials that had to issue a warning that they are closely watching speculative moves in the currency market. Resistance lies all the way at 140/142.25, some distance away. MAJOR RISK EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK Today at 13:30 UK time, US non-farm payroll data is anticipated to reveal a fewer number of jobs being added in May compared to April. Actual prints have varied significantly from prior estimates so be prepared for increased volatility in the event we see another departure from the consensus figure of 190k. If yesterday's ADP (private payroll data) beat and increased employment number within the ISM manufacturing PMI are anything to go by, we could very well see a print above expectations. However, it must be said that ADP has proven an unreliable predictor of NFP data and the jury is still out on whether its new methodology is any better than the last. A sizeable beat may see an uptick in rate expectations, lifting the dollar, and by extension, USD/JPY. A miss could add to the current sell-off as traders get behind an interest rate skip later this month. US services PMI will be a crucial data point in analysing the state of the US economy at a time when equity indices surge on thanks to a handful of massive tech and AI-aligned names. Towards the end of next week Japan will see the final GDP figure for Q1 - which is likely to confirm a much improved outlook than what emerged in the final quarter of last year.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
Will USDJPY will break downside soon?USDJPY is one of the popular Forex-Pair for trading. USDJPY is showing near term bearishness. as we are seeing that it's trading on it's all time high also has been rejected once with high volume volatility. once break we will be having a nice approx R:R :: 1:3 trade. Near future i am expecting a bearish market once it break to downside. all levels are marked on the chart. Reason : In rising wedge pattern which is mostly bearish. once break to downside Price < VWAP. RSI is already in 40-60 means mostly sideways. if it breaks will be a breakout of 2 month consolidation in Rising wedge. Verdict : Bearishness is expected in upcoming week. Plan of action: Go short on Break downside.
Short
by finnova_
Is it safe to set sell orders at 150.000 for USD/JPY now? Did the BoJ secretly intervene in USD/JPY on Tuesday? And is there more to come? For now, Bank of Japan officials have avoided explicitly stating whether they had stepped into the market to strengthen the yen. After the USD/JPY crossed 150.000 (its weakest levels in a year), a huge candle appeared on Tuesday touching as low as 147.300 before closing at 149.100. The Bank of Japan's data apparently showed that it did not intervene (its current account balance was within the estimated range). So, if it wasn’t a BoJ intervention, what was it? A self-fulfilling prophecy? Maybe both? It’s all a bit murky. Even former BOJ official Hideo Kumano said that Tuesday's move showed all the hallmarks of intervention. Of course, if it was the BoJ, they would be willing to do it again if needed as they have stated many times (although the officials like to phrase it as combating excess volatility rather than combatting a weakening yen). Tuesday intervention could have just been a warning shot to those looking to bet against the yen, with more drastic action from the BoJ locked and loaded. The BoJ last officially intervened in the currency markets in September and October last year, when the USD/JPY hit a 32-year low of 151.940. At that time, intervention was able to push the pair down to 146.000. Which begs the question; what could be some possible targets this year? Well, the aforementioned wick’s low of 147.300 is an obvious target, with 147.000 just below it. But, like the wider context, targets become a little murkier after these levels. Last year's pivot points at 145.700 and 145.500 might come into play.
by BlackBull_Markets
Yen Drops Below 150 Per Dollar - Exercise Caution in TradingThe Japanese yen has recently dropped below the critical threshold of 150 per dollar, primarily due to mounting concerns regarding intervention measures. In light of this situation, I strongly urge you to exercise caution and consider pausing yen trading until further clarification is obtained. The sudden decline in the yen's value has raised concerns among market participants, as it suggests the possibility of intervention by the Japanese government or central bank. Intervention refers to deliberate actions taken by authorities to influence their currency's exchange rate, typically through buying or selling large amounts of their own currency in the foreign exchange market. Such interventions can have a profound impact on the currency's value and create significant volatility in the market. Given the uncertainty surrounding the current situation, it is prudent to reassess our trading strategies and ensure that we are not unnecessarily exposed to potential risks. Therefore, I strongly recommend that you temporarily halt yen trading until we receive further guidance or clarification from reliable sources regarding any potential intervention measures. In the meantime, I encourage you to closely monitor the latest news and market developments related to the yen. Stay informed about any official statements or actions from the Japanese government or central bank, as these can provide valuable insights into the future direction of the currency. Additionally, consider diversifying your portfolio to reduce reliance on yen-based assets until the situation stabilizes. Please remember that our primary objective is to protect our investments and mitigate risk. By exercising caution and temporarily pausing yen trading, we can better position ourselves to navigate the current market uncertainties and make informed decisions when clarity emerges. If you have any questions or require further guidance, please do not hesitate to reach out to me or our dedicated support team. We are here to assist you and ensure that you have the necessary information to make well-informed trading decisions.
by bryandowningqln
11
USDJPY I Weekly Forecast & Technical OverviewWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Long
by BKTradingAcademy
11
Celebrate the Weakest Japan Yen in 10 Months - Long USD/JPY The Japan yen continues to display its weakness, hitting a 10-month low against the US dollar. It's time to seize this golden opportunity and consider going long on USD/JPY! The recent trend in the currency markets has shown a remarkable decline in the value of the Japan yen. As traders, we know that such fluctuations can present us with incredible prospects to maximize our gains. The current situation offers a perfect chance to capitalize on the yen's weakness and leverage the strength of the US dollar. Why should you consider going long on USD/JPY? Well, let me share some compelling reasons: 1. Weakest Japan Yen in 10 Months: The yen's value has been steadily declining, reaching its lowest point in the past 10 months. This trend suggests a potential for further weakening, making it an ideal time to take advantage of this market sentiment. 2. Favorable Economic Factors: Various economic indicators point towards a stronger US economy, including robust GDP growth, improved employment rates, and increased consumer spending. These factors contribute to the strength of the US dollar, which can further drive USD/JPY in your favor. 3. Technical Analysis Signals: Technical analysis enthusiasts will be delighted to know that several indicators are aligning to support a bullish outlook on USD/JPY. From moving averages to trendline breakouts, the charts are painting a positive picture for this currency pair. Now that you're aware of the exciting opportunity at hand, it's time to take action! Consider going long on USD/JPY and ride the wave of the yen's weakness. Remember, successful traders are the ones who spot opportunities when they arise and take calculated risks. As always, it's crucial to conduct your own thorough analysis and risk assessment before making any trading decisions. Stay informed about market developments, keep an eye on economic news, and consult with your trusted advisors to ensure your strategies align with your investment goals. Wishing you a joyful trading journey filled with profitable endeavors!
Long
by bryandowningqln
USDJPY Going downAs we all know, the news that is coming this week is going to dictate how the market is going to play out. My chart analysis shows that Elliott wave from BC is almost complete. I predict that over the coming weeks/months the US dollar is going to sink, this was originally fueled by the news that Mike Burry has bet billions on the Nasdaq crashing. That would bring about a drop in the DXY, gold through the roof, and dollar pairs under your desk. The question is when? well, has Mike Burry gone too early again or is he on time this time. We will have to wait and see. Published 19th September 2023
Short
by Elite_Trading_Signals
"USDJPY: Watching 148.80 for Reversal"The USDJPY currency pair is currently on an upward trajectory, approaching the key resistance level at 148.80. It's worth noting that in October of the previous year, the price experienced a significant downturn from this same level. Given this historical context, there is a reasonable expectation that a similar price reversal may occur this time as well. Should the daily candle manage to close above the critical resistance point at 148.80, it could potentially signal a further bullish extension towards the next target at 150.10. However, our strategy entails a bearish outlook. We plan to initiate a sell position at 150.10, with a target set at 145.55. This target aligns with the trend line support, which suggests a potential bearish move in the market, mirroring the historical precedent of price declines from the 148.80 level. 🔥1st Sell Entry - 148.80 🔥2nd Sell Entry - 150.10 👇TP - 145.50 🔴SL - Join Our Channel
Short
by FKW-Millions
USDJPY: Confidence in the uptrend!USD/JPY consolidates in a tight range around 147.40 ahead of US UoM confidence data The USD/JPY pair consolidated its recent gains in a tight range below the mid-147.00s during the first hour of Asian trading on Friday. The stronger US dollar (USD) is underpinned by strong US economic data. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD's value against six other major currencies, held above 105.35, near its highest daily close since March. The pair is currently trading near 147.45, losing 0.02% on the day.
Long
by Sphyn-Trader
7