Alert: Yen's Weakening Against Dollar Raises Intervention Risk Over the past few weeks, we have observed a steady decline in the value of the yen against the dollar. This trend has raised serious concerns about the possibility of intervention by the Japanese government or central bank. As traders, it is essential that we consider the potential implications of such intervention and take appropriate action to safeguard our positions.
Given the current state of affairs, I strongly urge you to consider going long on the yen. However, it is equally important to remain cautious and closely monitor any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities. The intervention risk is real and could significantly impact the yen's value in the market.
To ensure you make informed decisions, I encourage you to keep a close eye on key economic indicators, news releases, and any statements from Japanese policymakers. Additionally, staying updated on market sentiment and expert analysis will be invaluable in navigating this uncertain landscape.
As we move forward, let us remember that risk management is of utmost importance. While there may be opportunities to profit from the yen's weakening, it is crucial to have a well-defined risk management strategy in place. This will help protect your investments and mitigate potential losses in case of unexpected market movements.
In conclusion, I want to emphasize the importance of being proactive and prepared in these challenging times. By going long on the yen while remaining vigilant for potential intervention, we can position ourselves strategically to take advantage of market opportunities while minimizing risks.
Should you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to comment below. Let us support each other and collectively navigate through this period of uncertainty.
Usdjpylong
Daily Wave Rider - USDJPY - BUYUSDJPY
Channel: GREEN
WK Pivot: GREEN
AOB: WP
CON: EngB
BUY Stop: 149.956
Stop Loss: 149.314
TP01: 150.598
TP02: 151.882
DWR present as a buy setup on 25 OCT, with Channel and Pivot are green bouncing off weekly pivot
However, trade is not taken/considered
SPX500: SELL
DXY: UNSURE
OIL: BUY
GOLD: BUY
USDJPY back to 150. Is this a positive signal for investorsUSDJPY touched 150.eleven early withinside the Asian consultation earlier than falling barely because the USD got here below strain from options-pushed selling. The pair is presently buying and selling round 149.93.
Investors are carefully downplaying JPY because of the chance of presidency intervention. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated closing week it became critical to have balance withinside the forex marketplace and that volatility ought to mirror essential analysis.
Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities (Tokyo), said, ``The US dollar/yen pair broke through the 150 mark during a period of low liquidity, probably due to the influence of speculators.'' Concerns will limit upside. People will continue to be nervous. ”
Fukuhiro Ezawa, head of Tokyo Financial Markets at Standard Chartered Bank, said, ``The rapid fall of USD/JPY from 150 is a sign that algorithmic funds are increasing their sell orders due to concerns about interference.''
The large interest rate differential with the United States is the cause of the weak yen, and the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is 4.96%, nearly six times higher than the yield on Japanese government bonds with the same maturity (0.835%). Differences in monetary policy exacerbate the situation. The Bank of Japan said it will continue to maintain supportive policies to achieve a stable and sustainable 2% inflation target. Investors continue to monitor geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as they await the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on October 30-31.
Investors also welcomed a Nikkei report that Bank of Japan officials are considering whether to adjust its yield curve control program as domestic long-term interest rates rise in line with the U.S.. The source of the information was not identified in the report.
USDJPY 4H : Uptrend above 150.00USDJPY
New forecast
The narrow range dominates the trading of the dollar pair against the yen, which is trying to crawl towards our first awaited target at 150.00. Therefore, there is no change in the expected bullish trend scenario in the immediate and short term, whose targets extend to 151.00 after crossing the previous level, with a reminder of the importance of stability above 149.40. To continue the expected rise.
The expect range trading for today it will between resistance line 151.00 and support line 149.40 .
support line : 149.40 ,149.24
resistance line : 150.00 , 151.00
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
USDJPY ANALYSISThis is the weekly time frame on $USDJPY.
FX:USDJPY seems not to have made any significant movement in the last two weeks from a swing perspective.
Why is this? This is happening because the price needs to gather momentum to break the previous weekly timeframe's bearish order block.
I shall step down to the daily and 4hr time frame to look for buy confirmations this week.
USDJPY Longa beautiful setup through and through.
Grade A long setup.
2/2 in favor of longs.
OHV VAR in favor of longs.
entry coming off of POC.
a pullback to daily AVWAP coinciding with AS POC and rejection.
entry at the open of subsequent candle.
this being a secondary pair, warranted grade B risk, but this is those easy money repeatable setups that I look for on a daily basis.
USDJPY 4H :Still support further rise USDJPY
New forecast
The USD/JPY pair is showing quiet positive trading, gradually approaching our first awaited target at 150.00, and the 50 moving average continues to support the price from below, waiting to cross the aforementioned level to achieve additional gains up to 151.00.
Therefore, we will continue to favor the upward trend for the coming period, keeping in mind that breaking 149.24 will stop the expected rise and put pressure on the price to turn lower.
The expect range trading for today it will between resistance line 151.00 and support line 149.24 .
Additionally ,Today News will affect the market .
support line : 149.24 , 148.89
resistance line : 150.00 , 151.00
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
USDJPY and USDCAD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Daily Wave Rider - USDJPY - BUYUSDJPY
Channel: GREEN
WK Pivot: GREEN
AOB: WP
CON: SBB
BUY Stop: 149.882
Stop Loss: 148.795
TP01: 150.969
TP02: 153.143
DWR present as a buy setup on 18 OCT, with Channel and Pivot are green bouncing off weekly pivot
Trade is not taken
SPX500: SELL
DXY: SELL
OIL: SELL
GOLD: BUY
USDJPY 1H : Support further rise upUSDJPY
New forecast
The dollar pair against the yen has fluctuated within a narrow path in the past sessions, and stabilized above the moving average 50, which continues to support the price from below, waiting for the resumption of the upward wave targeting levels of 150.00 and then 151.00 as the next main stations.
On the other hand, you should be aware that breaking 148.89 will stop the expected rise and force the price to turn lower.
The expect range trading for today it will between resistance line 150.00 and support line 149.24 .
Additionally ,Today News will affect the market .
support line : 149.24 , 148.89
resistance line : 150.00 , 151.00
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
USD/JPY Breaks Records with Over 60 Trillion Traded Between Jan The USD/JPY has been making waves in the market, soaring to unprecedented heights, with over 60 trillion dollar traded between January and September. Can you believe it? This is a monumental achievement!
As a seasoned trader, you understand the significance of such a phenomenal trading volume. The yen's remarkable performance is a testament to its strength and stability in these uncertain times. I can't help but feel a sense of optimism and enthusiasm, once again reminding me why I love being a part of this dynamic trading community.
Given the yen's incredible performance, I encourage you to consider taking advantage of this exciting opportunity and going long on the yen. With a robust trading volume supporting it, the yen proves to be a promising investment choice for both experienced traders and newcomers alike. Ride the wave of success and embrace the potential it brings!
Remember, success favors the brave, and with the yen's impressive trading volume, now is the perfect time to dive into the market and long USD/JPY. Embrace the joy of trading, make your moves wisely, and harness the power of this extraordinary market development.
www.asia.nikkei.com
Daily Wave Rider - USDJPY - BUYUSDJPY
Channel: GREEN
WK Pivot: GREEN
AOB: EMA10
CON: IB
BUY Stop: 149.859
Stop Loss: 149.445
TP01: 150.273
TP02: 151.101
DWR present as a buy setup on 16 OCT, with Channel and Pivot are green bouncing off EMA10
However, trade is not taken/considered as it is Monday which is normally correction day and market is unpredictable
SPX500: SELL
DXY: SELL
OIL: SELL
GOLD: BUY
USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USD/JPY Bullish long RangeUS Dollar Dips but Finds Buyers
The US dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading week, but found enough support underneath to turn things around. The ¥138 level is an area that a lot of people had been paying attention to as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have marked on the chart, and of course the “market memory” that comes with the top of the ascending triangle is coming into the picture. If we turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the ¥142 level.
If we break above the ¥142 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥148 level which is the measured move from the ascending triangle. You can see that we broke out exactly where you would anticipate seeing that based upon standard technical analysis, so I do think this is a market that you are a buyer of dips on given enough time, and will have to look at it through that prism. I have no interest in shorting this market, and I do believe that as soon the market breaks above the top of this candlestick, we will probably continue to see a lot of upward momentum and a move to the upside.
If we were to break down below the ¥138 level, then it could see a fairly steep correction, but right now I don’t see that in the cards, and I believe we probably still have the possibility of a stretch higher. The US dollar continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve being tight while the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control.
BoJ Governor in no hurry to alter BoJ monetary policy path
Key levels to watch for USD/JPY for the current bearish continuation scenario
BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA IN NO HURRY TO ALTER COURSE
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank is in no rush to alter the path of monetary policy despite interest rates holding above the 2% target since early 2022. The pick up in inflation has been attributed to supply side effects created by the demand and supply mismatch brought about as a result of the Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war.
However, this morning at a platform for Japan’s government draft economic policy, it was declared that the government will eradicate a deflationary mindset and move towards ending deflation with bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and with its growth strategy. Additionally, the draft policy issued hope that the BoJ achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target, accompanied by welcomed wage growth. The news helped the pair continue to ease lower in early European trading.
USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND KEY LEVELS OF INTEREST
USD/JPY turned lower at the beginning of the week when news of a provisional agreement to raise the debt ceiling filtered into the market. Since then, interest rate expectations have reversed course, initially favouring a 25-basis point hike and now largely favouring the no hike or “skip” outcome. As such, a weaker dollar has benefitted the yen which now sees the pair on track for 5 consecutive days of declines.
The 138.20 and 138.00 zone of support currently appears as the next area of support, followed by the 200 SMA which hovers around 137.27 at present. The downward momentum is supported by the return from overbought territory on the RSI towards neutral levels, alleviating pressure on Japanese officials that had to issue a warning that they are closely watching speculative moves in the currency market. Resistance lies all the way at 140/142.25, some distance away.
MAJOR RISK EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK
Today at 13:30 UK time, US non-farm payroll data is anticipated to reveal a fewer number of jobs being added in May compared to April. Actual prints have varied significantly from prior estimates so be prepared for increased volatility in the event we see another departure from the consensus figure of 190k. If yesterday's ADP (private payroll data) beat and increased employment number within the ISM manufacturing PMI are anything to go by, we could very well see a print above expectations. However, it must be said that ADP has proven an unreliable predictor of NFP data and the jury is still out on whether its new methodology is any better than the last. A sizeable beat may see an uptick in rate expectations, lifting the dollar, and by extension, USD/JPY. A miss could add to the current sell-off as traders get behind an interest rate skip later this month.
US services PMI will be a crucial data point in analysing the state of the US economy at a time when equity indices surge on thanks to a handful of massive tech and AI-aligned names. Towards the end of next week Japan will see the final GDP figure for Q1 - which is likely to confirm a much improved outlook than what emerged in the final quarter of last year.
↗️USDJPY might be ready for the next bullish leg↗️USDJPY is still in technical uptrend, recently showing few cycles of reaccumulation - when prices dips below the low to manipulate weak hands, only to continue higher.
In recent UJ outlook we discussed that the price need more time to accumulate before continuation, and right now it seems like UJ is starting to build up chains of demand and structure as showed on the chart.
Will look for more bullishness, and if we get break to the downside - will expect further back and forth.
USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USD/JPY 15m Chart Analysis - Long to Retest the 150.175 HighUSD/JPY has been ranging between 148.300 and 149.300 since last week and has failed to break down to the 30EMA on the Daily chart. DXY has failed to break below its Daily 30EMA as well. The USD/JPY price action is currently in the top 1/3rd of the range with the RSI just mid-level leaving room for a move up and out of the range.
There is a gap to fill up to the previous high of 150.175. At the very least, I believe we'll see a retest of this level. For this to happen, the Dollar needs a good bounce at the 105.600 level and the Yen remain stagnant or fall. My current analysis of the Yen is it's ready for a pullback to the upside, but that doesn't mean it won't take a quick dip to the downside first before reversing.
I think we can find a good entry in this range below the midpoint and look for a breakout at the top of the range.
Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
USDJPY 4H OUTLOOK USDJPY
Analyze
If a price can stable above 148.73 the direction will be uptrend again to reach 150.28 , 152.03 , 153.89
For any reason if the price backs off and stable under 148.73 , the price will try to reach 147.62 If can break it then will reach 146.19 and 1143.45
Support line:147.62,146.19 ,143.45
resistance line: 150.28,152.03 ,153.89
82% of retail investors hold short positions.Resistance Level 2: 150.00
Resistance level 1: 149.00
Spot price: 148.46
Support bit 1: 147.80
Support bit 2: 147.00
On Monday (October 9), the U.S. dollar fell 0.57% against the Japanese yen to 148.49. As the situation in the Middle East panics the market, the Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven currency, has been favored in cross trading, which has also indirectly increased its direct quotation against the US dollar. In addition, although the U.S. non-farm payrolls data is strong, it is not enough to change expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in November. Therefore, investors seem to be starting to find excuses to ease the pressure on the yen. USD/JPY is likely to see an adjustment downward trend under profit-making selling pressure. On the daily chart, the signs of top divergence seem to be gradually confirmed, the price line has also begun to fall below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands channel, and the technical indicators are trending downward. Pay close attention to the support of 147.50 below. If it falls below, be careful that the adjustment downward momentum may drag USD/JPY to a lower level.
USDJPY - D1USDJPY
After leaving the narrowing channel, the price failed to gain a foothold in order to form a pattern for a reversal, you can try to consider purchases, with a small stop, from these levels, continuing to move upward to the targets 153,200 - 157,460
What can you expect now?
You can consider entry from these levels (149,130) - exit or cancellation of the idea 148,240
Targets 150,145 - 151,300 - 152,060 - 153,200