USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair encountered downward pressure yesterday, dropping to the 148.807 level before reversing its direction upwards, hitting the uptrend line and consolidating above the resistance line at 149.315. This suggests that the market is likely to sustain an upward trajectory. Sustaining trade above this level is expected to serve as a driving force for the price to reach 150.426.
However, if the price breaks below 149.315, it may halt the upward movement and gradually initiate a bearish trend.
Usdjpylong
USDJPY: Yen appreciates ahead of BOJ meetingWith the yen weaker than it was last week when it reached a one-year high of 150.78, USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 149.50.
The focus will be on the BOJ meeting's conclusion on Tuesday, when it is anticipated that the central bank would make additional announcements regarding its policy to manage the yield curve. High rates of inflation and the sharp fall in the value of the Yen are problems facing this product.
A revival of Japanese consumer inflation is indicated by recent data, and this could lead the Bank of Japan to announce plans to tighten its incredibly lax policy.
USDJPY: Asian foreign exchange little changed; Central banks areWith the Japanese Yen stable below 150, BOJ is the main focus.
Monday saw a small increase in the value of the Japanese yen, which last week dropped to a one-year low and is now trading below 150.
With high inflation and a badly weakened economy, the spotlight is firmly on the outcome of the BOJ meeting on Tuesday, when the central bank is expected to likely announce more adjustments to its yield curve management program.
A rebound in consumer inflation in Japan was seen in recent statistics, which traders speculated would force the BOJ to revert its ultra-loose policy. The bank's negative interest rate policy is expected to terminate in 2024, according to analysts.
The yen, which is among the worst-performing Asian currencies this year, stands to gain from any tightening measures taken by the BOJ.
Conservative bullish USD/JPY setupThe USD/JPY pair is exhibiting a bullish sentiment due to the US's economic resilience and the recent slump of the Yen. The pair is approaching a significant level of 150, which is being closely watched by the market for possible intervention by Japanese monetary authorities. The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan's policy decisions, along with upcoming economic events, are expected to significantly influence the pair's movement. Although there's a bullish tendency, caution is advised due to the potential for intervention around the 150 level.
Entry Point: 148.50 (on a retracement).
Stop Loss: 147.50 (100 pips cushion to manage downside risk).
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 150.00 (conservative target considering the potential for intervention around this level).
This setup aims to capture a bullish move while exercising caution around the significant 150 level.
USDJPY - Long Trade Idea (ICT)Based my bullish bias for the US Dollar (DXY), I am expecting USDJPY to head higher as well.
Last week price traded to a clear 4-hour Order Block before retracing and ending the week. Now there are 2 general areas where I expect price to move higher from and create new highs.
1. There are a few PD Arrays with my interest in this area, most of them overlapping. At the very least, I am anticipating the 8-hour Bisi to be traded into, and possible digging into the 45-minute Bisi and subsequent Order Blocks below.
2. There is an Order Block with a 2-hour Bisi in this zone. I could permit price to come into this area if price action was slow to get there, or if it were fast to get there I would allow for a sharp rejection.
- R2F
Alert: Yen's Weakening Against Dollar Raises Intervention Risk Over the past few weeks, we have observed a steady decline in the value of the yen against the dollar. This trend has raised serious concerns about the possibility of intervention by the Japanese government or central bank. As traders, it is essential that we consider the potential implications of such intervention and take appropriate action to safeguard our positions.
Given the current state of affairs, I strongly urge you to consider going long on the yen. However, it is equally important to remain cautious and closely monitor any signs of intervention by Japanese authorities. The intervention risk is real and could significantly impact the yen's value in the market.
To ensure you make informed decisions, I encourage you to keep a close eye on key economic indicators, news releases, and any statements from Japanese policymakers. Additionally, staying updated on market sentiment and expert analysis will be invaluable in navigating this uncertain landscape.
As we move forward, let us remember that risk management is of utmost importance. While there may be opportunities to profit from the yen's weakening, it is crucial to have a well-defined risk management strategy in place. This will help protect your investments and mitigate potential losses in case of unexpected market movements.
In conclusion, I want to emphasize the importance of being proactive and prepared in these challenging times. By going long on the yen while remaining vigilant for potential intervention, we can position ourselves strategically to take advantage of market opportunities while minimizing risks.
Should you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to comment below. Let us support each other and collectively navigate through this period of uncertainty.
Daily Wave Rider - USDJPY - BUYUSDJPY
Channel: GREEN
WK Pivot: GREEN
AOB: WP
CON: EngB
BUY Stop: 149.956
Stop Loss: 149.314
TP01: 150.598
TP02: 151.882
DWR present as a buy setup on 25 OCT, with Channel and Pivot are green bouncing off weekly pivot
However, trade is not taken/considered
SPX500: SELL
DXY: UNSURE
OIL: BUY
GOLD: BUY
USDJPY back to 150. Is this a positive signal for investorsUSDJPY touched 150.eleven early withinside the Asian consultation earlier than falling barely because the USD got here below strain from options-pushed selling. The pair is presently buying and selling round 149.93.
Investors are carefully downplaying JPY because of the chance of presidency intervention. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated closing week it became critical to have balance withinside the forex marketplace and that volatility ought to mirror essential analysis.
Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities (Tokyo), said, ``The US dollar/yen pair broke through the 150 mark during a period of low liquidity, probably due to the influence of speculators.'' Concerns will limit upside. People will continue to be nervous. ”
Fukuhiro Ezawa, head of Tokyo Financial Markets at Standard Chartered Bank, said, ``The rapid fall of USD/JPY from 150 is a sign that algorithmic funds are increasing their sell orders due to concerns about interference.''
The large interest rate differential with the United States is the cause of the weak yen, and the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds is 4.96%, nearly six times higher than the yield on Japanese government bonds with the same maturity (0.835%). Differences in monetary policy exacerbate the situation. The Bank of Japan said it will continue to maintain supportive policies to achieve a stable and sustainable 2% inflation target. Investors continue to monitor geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as they await the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on October 30-31.
Investors also welcomed a Nikkei report that Bank of Japan officials are considering whether to adjust its yield curve control program as domestic long-term interest rates rise in line with the U.S.. The source of the information was not identified in the report.
USDJPY ANALYSISThis is the weekly time frame on $USDJPY.
FX:USDJPY seems not to have made any significant movement in the last two weeks from a swing perspective.
Why is this? This is happening because the price needs to gather momentum to break the previous weekly timeframe's bearish order block.
I shall step down to the daily and 4hr time frame to look for buy confirmations this week.
USDJPY Longa beautiful setup through and through.
Grade A long setup.
2/2 in favor of longs.
OHV VAR in favor of longs.
entry coming off of POC.
a pullback to daily AVWAP coinciding with AS POC and rejection.
entry at the open of subsequent candle.
this being a secondary pair, warranted grade B risk, but this is those easy money repeatable setups that I look for on a daily basis.
USDJPY and USDCAD Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Daily Wave Rider - USDJPY - BUYUSDJPY
Channel: GREEN
WK Pivot: GREEN
AOB: WP
CON: SBB
BUY Stop: 149.882
Stop Loss: 148.795
TP01: 150.969
TP02: 153.143
DWR present as a buy setup on 18 OCT, with Channel and Pivot are green bouncing off weekly pivot
Trade is not taken
SPX500: SELL
DXY: SELL
OIL: SELL
GOLD: BUY
USD/JPY Breaks Records with Over 60 Trillion Traded Between Jan The USD/JPY has been making waves in the market, soaring to unprecedented heights, with over 60 trillion dollar traded between January and September. Can you believe it? This is a monumental achievement!
As a seasoned trader, you understand the significance of such a phenomenal trading volume. The yen's remarkable performance is a testament to its strength and stability in these uncertain times. I can't help but feel a sense of optimism and enthusiasm, once again reminding me why I love being a part of this dynamic trading community.
Given the yen's incredible performance, I encourage you to consider taking advantage of this exciting opportunity and going long on the yen. With a robust trading volume supporting it, the yen proves to be a promising investment choice for both experienced traders and newcomers alike. Ride the wave of success and embrace the potential it brings!
Remember, success favors the brave, and with the yen's impressive trading volume, now is the perfect time to dive into the market and long USD/JPY. Embrace the joy of trading, make your moves wisely, and harness the power of this extraordinary market development.
www.asia.nikkei.com
Daily Wave Rider - USDJPY - BUYUSDJPY
Channel: GREEN
WK Pivot: GREEN
AOB: EMA10
CON: IB
BUY Stop: 149.859
Stop Loss: 149.445
TP01: 150.273
TP02: 151.101
DWR present as a buy setup on 16 OCT, with Channel and Pivot are green bouncing off EMA10
However, trade is not taken/considered as it is Monday which is normally correction day and market is unpredictable
SPX500: SELL
DXY: SELL
OIL: SELL
GOLD: BUY
USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
USD/JPY Bullish long RangeUS Dollar Dips but Finds Buyers
The US dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading week, but found enough support underneath to turn things around. The ¥138 level is an area that a lot of people had been paying attention to as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have marked on the chart, and of course the “market memory” that comes with the top of the ascending triangle is coming into the picture. If we turn around and break above the top of the candlestick, then it opens up the possibility of a move toward the ¥142 level.
If we break above the ¥142 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the ¥148 level which is the measured move from the ascending triangle. You can see that we broke out exactly where you would anticipate seeing that based upon standard technical analysis, so I do think this is a market that you are a buyer of dips on given enough time, and will have to look at it through that prism. I have no interest in shorting this market, and I do believe that as soon the market breaks above the top of this candlestick, we will probably continue to see a lot of upward momentum and a move to the upside.
If we were to break down below the ¥138 level, then it could see a fairly steep correction, but right now I don’t see that in the cards, and I believe we probably still have the possibility of a stretch higher. The US dollar continues to benefit from the Federal Reserve being tight while the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control.
BoJ Governor in no hurry to alter BoJ monetary policy path
Key levels to watch for USD/JPY for the current bearish continuation scenario
BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA IN NO HURRY TO ALTER COURSE
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed that the Bank is in no rush to alter the path of monetary policy despite interest rates holding above the 2% target since early 2022. The pick up in inflation has been attributed to supply side effects created by the demand and supply mismatch brought about as a result of the Covid-19 lockdowns and Russia Ukraine war.
However, this morning at a platform for Japan’s government draft economic policy, it was declared that the government will eradicate a deflationary mindset and move towards ending deflation with bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy and with its growth strategy. Additionally, the draft policy issued hope that the BoJ achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target, accompanied by welcomed wage growth. The news helped the pair continue to ease lower in early European trading.
USD/JPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND KEY LEVELS OF INTEREST
USD/JPY turned lower at the beginning of the week when news of a provisional agreement to raise the debt ceiling filtered into the market. Since then, interest rate expectations have reversed course, initially favouring a 25-basis point hike and now largely favouring the no hike or “skip” outcome. As such, a weaker dollar has benefitted the yen which now sees the pair on track for 5 consecutive days of declines.
The 138.20 and 138.00 zone of support currently appears as the next area of support, followed by the 200 SMA which hovers around 137.27 at present. The downward momentum is supported by the return from overbought territory on the RSI towards neutral levels, alleviating pressure on Japanese officials that had to issue a warning that they are closely watching speculative moves in the currency market. Resistance lies all the way at 140/142.25, some distance away.
MAJOR RISK EVENTS OVER THE NEXT WEEK
Today at 13:30 UK time, US non-farm payroll data is anticipated to reveal a fewer number of jobs being added in May compared to April. Actual prints have varied significantly from prior estimates so be prepared for increased volatility in the event we see another departure from the consensus figure of 190k. If yesterday's ADP (private payroll data) beat and increased employment number within the ISM manufacturing PMI are anything to go by, we could very well see a print above expectations. However, it must be said that ADP has proven an unreliable predictor of NFP data and the jury is still out on whether its new methodology is any better than the last. A sizeable beat may see an uptick in rate expectations, lifting the dollar, and by extension, USD/JPY. A miss could add to the current sell-off as traders get behind an interest rate skip later this month.
US services PMI will be a crucial data point in analysing the state of the US economy at a time when equity indices surge on thanks to a handful of massive tech and AI-aligned names. Towards the end of next week Japan will see the final GDP figure for Q1 - which is likely to confirm a much improved outlook than what emerged in the final quarter of last year.
↗️USDJPY might be ready for the next bullish leg↗️USDJPY is still in technical uptrend, recently showing few cycles of reaccumulation - when prices dips below the low to manipulate weak hands, only to continue higher.
In recent UJ outlook we discussed that the price need more time to accumulate before continuation, and right now it seems like UJ is starting to build up chains of demand and structure as showed on the chart.
Will look for more bullishness, and if we get break to the downside - will expect further back and forth.
USDJPY Top-down analysis Hello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.