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Usdjpylong

Timing the BOJ's next intervention? We have seen 2 interventions from the BOJ over the past 2 weeks. The first came when the USDJPY hit between 158.000 and 160.000 and the second when it hit almost 158.000. With the BOJ warning that it is ready and willing to step in again, how smart is it to try to catch the ride down if or when the BOJ steps in again? Finance Minister Shunich Suzuki reiterated the authorities' readiness to counter excessive foreign exchange fluctuations. At the same time, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed intent to assess yen movements' impact on inflation for guiding policy decisions. "Foreign exchange rates make a significant impact on the economy and inflation,” Ueda underscored in response to questions in parliament yesterday. But this is perhaps a slightly different story, but still, something for traders to consider. Last week, BOJ data suggested it had spent $60 billion to defend the yen. But all this has done, according to some analysts, is buy the Japanese authorities time, with the USDJPY steadily climbing back to intervention levels (given the substantial interest rate difference between Japan and the US). But can we expect the BOJ to intervene again and again? US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized interventions should be infrequent and ideally coordinated with the broader central banking community, or at least signaled in advance. So, the BOJ will be wary of its international reputation too.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY: Japanese Yen reverses some gains, USDJPY risesThe Japanese yen USDJPY rose 0.6% on Monday, although trading volumes in the currency were limited due to a market holiday in Japan. The rate is inversely linked to the strength of the yen, which has fallen sharply from a 34-year high of more than 160 yen last week amid signs of repeated government intervention in currency markets. But given that the fundamentals behind the yen's weakness - primarily the wide gap between US and domestic interest rates - remain, the yen's decline continues.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
1
USDJPY: The Japanese yen rose suddenly amid intervention speculaThe Japanese yen experienced a notable rise on Monday, which analysts interpreted as a potential sign of intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. The move comes after a significant depreciation of the yen, which has fallen nearly 11% against the dollar this year and 35% over the past three decades, recently hitting a 34-year low. Monday's operation follows months of warnings from Japan that it may intervene in foreign exchange markets. The Japanese government's most recent intervention took place in September and October 2022, with an estimated 9.2 trillion yen ($60.78 billion) spent to support the currency. This is not the first case of intervention; During the 1998 Asian financial crisis, the yen fell nearly 25% in 14 months, prompting the United States to join Japan in a successful intervention effort.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
USDJPY 1H Long Trade - 1:3 RRRTP: 160.000 SL: 157.011 In this trading strategy, we present a compelling opportunity for a long position on the USDJPY currency pair, focusing on the 1-hour timeframe. By incorporating key technical indicators such as the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 200, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for trend analysis, and Supertrend for entry signals, traders can aim to achieve a favorable risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3. Indicators: EMA200: The EMA200 serves as a critical indicator of the long-term trend direction. MACD Trend: The MACD indicator helps traders assess the strength and direction of the trend. Supertrend: The Supertrend indicator acts as a reliable tool for identifying entry points in alignment with the prevailing trend.
Long
by panjikadar
2
#USDJPY: Still Bullish, Next Target 163.00| SetupsFX_ |Dear Traders, Hope you are doing great, right here we have an excellent opportunity of buying USDJPY, JPY plummeted few days ago as BOJ kept the interest rate as the same and decided not to change. Leading a heavy sell off on YEN. However, price did make strong correction right after the sell off, though we think it was temporary correction. Right now price is at perfect buying area from which it can rebound strongly. Like and Comment if you like or agree with our idea! :)
Long
by Setupsfx_
Silent Samurai: Why Japan Keeps Mum on the Yen's Fate f JapanThe Japanese Yen has been on a rollercoaster ride recently, weakening against the US dollar. This has sparked concerns in Japan, but the government has remained tight-lipped on whether they've intervened to prop up the currency. This silence, some argue, is a strategic necessity in the face of a more dominant player: the US Federal Reserve. Traditionally, governments use currency intervention – buying or selling their own currency – to influence exchange rates. A weaker yen can benefit Japanese exporters by making their goods cheaper overseas. However, a rapidly depreciating yen can also lead to inflation, hurting Japanese consumers. So, why the silence from Japan? Here are some key reasons: • The Power of the Fed: The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions have a massive impact on global currency markets. When the Fed raises interest rates, it strengthens the dollar as investors seek higher returns in US assets. This, in turn, weakens currencies like the yen. Japan's silence could be a way to acknowledge this reality. Publicly admitting intervention against the Fed's tightening stance might be seen as futile or even provocative. • Preserving Intervention Ammunition: Currency intervention is expensive. It depletes a country's foreign reserves and can be ineffective in the long run if underlying economic conditions don't improve. By staying silent, Japan might be trying to keep the markets guessing about potential intervention. This uncertainty itself can sometimes deter speculators from further weakening the yen, achieving some effect without actually spending reserves. • Signaling Commitment to Market Forces: Openly intervening can be seen as a lack of confidence in a market-driven exchange rate system. Japan might be prioritizing long-term economic stability by allowing the yen to find its natural level based on market forces, even if it's uncomfortable in the short term. • Focus on Broader Economic Policy: The yen's weakness is just one piece of a complex economic puzzle. Japan's government might be prioritizing other measures to stimulate the economy, such as fiscal spending or structural reforms. Addressing these underlying issues could have a more lasting impact on the currency than short-term intervention. However, the silence isn't without its critics. Some argue that a lack of transparency undermines market confidence. Additionally, if the yen weakens excessively, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might be forced into raising interest rates, contradicting its current ultra-loose monetary policy. This could create unwelcome economic disruptions. What's Next for the Yen? The future of the yen hinges on several factors, including: • The Fed's Path: The pace and extent of the Fed's interest rate hikes will significantly influence the dollar-yen exchange rate. If the Fed slows down its tightening, the pressure on the yen could ease. • Japan's Economic Performance: A stronger Japanese economy with signs of inflation could naturally lead to a yen appreciation. • Intervention Decisions: While Japan might remain tight-lipped, any covert intervention could impact the market. The coming months will be crucial for the yen. The silence from Japanese authorities might be a calculated strategy, but its effectiveness remains to be seen. Only time will tell if Japan can navigate these choppy currency waters and achieve a stable yen without sacrificing its broader economic goals.
Long
by bryandowningqln
USDJPY → Aiming for 176.500!? Let's Dig In.USD/JPY broke ascending triangle pattern at the 152.00 Resistance level per my last analysis. Since then, we have seen the completion of the measured move to 154.500 followed by a third leg up to 158.350! Is this the moment to long? Or are we in for a hard sell-off? Previous Analysis: How do we trade this? 🤔 I would not long the market open. After a strong Friday push, traders are far more likely to take profits, likely pulling the price down to the 156.000-157.000 range with the possibility of a hard wick to the 153.000-154.000 area. That being said, we should remain long-biased and buy these pullbacks, as USD/JPY has been on this bull trend since January 2021. This trade pertains to the Weekly timeframe. I would drill into the 4HR and Daily to find more precise entries. It's reasonable to assume the pullback at this level, so we should look for a bounce at one of the key areas mentioned and enter a long position. On the Weekly, aim for a first take profit of 169.500 where half the position is taken off the table, then move the stop loss up to the entry price. The second take profit should be taken just before the 1978 key level of 176.900. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 156.700 🟥 Stop Loss: 150.300 ✅ Take Profit #1: 169.500 ✅ Take Profit #2: 175.900 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Breakout of key 152.000 price level 2. Strong bullish price action completing the measured move to 154.500 3. Third leg to 158.350 complete, wait for a pullback 4. Enter a 1:3 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:2 Risk/Reward. 5. RSI at 74.00 and above the Moving Average, supports pullback. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
1
USDJPY Cup & Handle Pattern Indicates Bullish Breakout PotentialInstrument: USD/JPY Pattern Formation: Cup and Handle Current Situation: Near Key Resistance Level Analysis: The USD/JPY currency pair has been exhibiting a compelling technical setup, characterized by the formation of a Cup and Handle pattern near a crucial resistance level. This pattern suggests a potential bullish continuation in the prevailing uptrend. The Cup and Handle pattern typically signifies a period of consolidation followed by a breakout to the upside. As such, we anticipate a bullish breakout in the near term, indicating favorable trading opportunities for market participants. Trade Recommendation: - Entry Point: Initiate long positions upon a re-test of the price near 151.900, ideally confirming the bullish momentum. - Stop Loss: Place a stop-loss order at 150.180 to mitigate potential downside risk and preserve capital in the event of adverse price movements. - Take Profit Targets: - TP-1: Set the first take-profit target at 153.650, reflecting a conservative projection of the upward price movement. - TP-2: Aim for a secondary take-profit level at 155.400 to capitalize on extended bullish momentum, considering the potential for further upside. Risk Management: It is crucial to adhere to proper risk management practices, including position sizing and stop-loss placement, to safeguard against unexpected market fluctuations. Traders should also remain vigilant and adjust their positions accordingly based on evolving market conditions. Conclusion: In summary, the technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair, with the formation of a Cup and Handle pattern near a key resistance level. Traders may consider implementing long positions, with defined entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, to capitalize on the anticipated upward breakout. Note: This analysis is based solely on technical factors and does not account for fundamental or external market influences. Traders should conduct their own research and exercise discretion before entering any trades.
Long
by trading_jupiter
1
Hedge Funds Bet on Yen Shorts as BOJ Reiterates InterventionHedge funds are betting big against the Japanese yen, driving short positions to their highest level since April 2022. This aggressive stance comes despite warnings from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) that it will intervene in the currency market again to defend the yen if necessary. The data, compiled by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), shows a surge in net-short yen positions held by leveraged funds. This indicates a strong belief that the yen will continue to weaken. The yen has been under pressure for months due to a widening gap between Japanese and U.S. interest rates. Why the Yen Short Bets? Several factors are contributing to the bearish sentiment on the yen: • Divergent Monetary Policy: The BOJ is maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is aggressively raising rates to combat inflation. This interest rate differential makes yen-denominated assets less attractive to investors, weakening the currency. • Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing war in Ukraine and heightened global uncertainty are driving investors towards safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar, further pressuring the yen. • Intervention Concerns: The BOJ's previous intervention in the currency market in September 2022 to weaken the dollar and strengthen the yen proved to be temporary. The market's perception is that the BOJ may not be able to sustain continued intervention efforts, leading to renewed weakness in the yen. Bank of Japan's Warning The BOJ has reiterated its commitment to defending the yen and warned of further intervention if deemed necessary. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has emphasized the bank's resolve to maintain its current monetary policy stance, even as the yen weakens. However, analysts remain skeptical of the BOJ's ability to influence long-term currency trends, especially given the strong global forces pushing the yen lower. Potential Impacts The continued decline of the yen could have several consequences: • Imported Inflation: A weaker yen makes imports more expensive, potentially fueling inflation in Japan. • Corporate Profits: Export-oriented Japanese companies could benefit from a weaker yen as their products become more competitive globally. • Investor Confidence: Continued weakness in the yen could erode investor confidence in the Japanese economy. Looking Ahead The future path of the yen is uncertain. The BOJ's resolve and ability to defend the currency will be closely watched. The direction of U.S. monetary policy and global economic conditions will also play a key role. With substantial short bets placed by hedge funds, the yen remains vulnerable to further depreciation. The BOJ's warnings of intervention add another layer of complexity to the situation. The coming months will be crucial in determining the fate of the yen and its impact on the Japanese economy.
Long
by bryandowningqln
USDJPY → At 152.000 Resistance! Will it break to 160.000?USD/JPY has been bullish since January 2021 and is currently in an ascending triangle pattern, indicating a potential push through the 152.000 resistance level. Is this the moment to long? How do we trade this? 🤔 We need to wait for a confirmed breakout of 152.000. The probability of a breakout is high, but we need the confirmation of support at 152.000 to justify a long entry. Once we see a strong bull candle off of support, a 1:2 Risk/Reward on the Weekly timeframe is a straightforward trade to take. The RSI is around 60.00 and above the Moving Average, providing enough headroom for a move to the upside. It's also reasonable to take a long trade on the Daily timeframe which will allow you to get an earlier entry and a better Risk/Reward, but the Weekly timeframe provides us with a clearer picture of the situation. When Take Profit #1 is hit, half of the position should be sold, the stop loss should be moved to the entry price, and the second half of the position should go to Take Profit #2. This locks in profits after the first take profit which is at 1:1 Risk/Reward. 💡 Trade Idea 💡 Long Entry: 153.570 🟥 Stop Loss: 150.900 ✅ Take Profit #1: $156.400 ✅ Take Profit #2: $158.900 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2 🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑 1. Ascending Triangle at 152.000 Resistance level, a bullish pattern. 2. 30EMA providing key support above the ascending support band. 3. Wait for a breakout of 152.000 resistance and confirmation of support to long 4. Enter a 1:2 Risk/Reward trade taking half profits at 1:1 Risk/Reward. 5. RSI at 60.00 and above the Moving Average, supports long bias. 💰 Trading Tip 💰 The longer a trend continues after 3 legs, the probability of that trend continuing lessens. Because of this decreased probability, we ought to reduce our risk when entering trades. ⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️ Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk! Like 👍 and Follow to learn more about: 1. Reading Price Action 2. Chart Analysis 3. Trade Management 4. Trading Psychology
Long
by TraderEngineering
USDJPY: USD/JPY returns to 152 regardless of intervention threat The Japanese yen weakened barely on Tuesday, with USDJPY now lower back toward 152 - its maximum stage in view that 1990. The yen`s weak spot comes whilst Japanese officers time and again warn that they'll reply correctly to hypothesis in opposition to the yen. However, promoting momentum piled at the yen, specially withinside the face of better longer-dated US hobby costs, that have been the principle weight at the Japanese foreign money for almost years. The yen additionally obtained little assist from the Bank of Japan's first hobby fee hike in 17 years, because the valuable financial institution presented dovish alerts on destiny coverage decisions. . Dollar steadies on CPI information, recognition on Fed assembly minutes The greenback index and greenback index futures had been little modified in Asian buying and selling after posting a few in a single day losses. But buyers are nevertheless in large part biased toward the dollar given the numerous alerts on US hobby costs this week. Consumer Price Index inflation information for March is due out on Wednesday and is extensively anticipated to expose inflation final properly above the Fed's 2% annual target, leaving the valuable financial institution with little Motivation to begin reducing hobby costs soon. Minutes from the Fed's March assembly can also be launched on Wednesday and are available amid developing doubts approximately whether or not the valuable financial institution will begin reducing hobby costs in June. A string of Fed officers warned that difficult inflation could maintain the Fed from reducing hobby costs early this year.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
2
Yen Bear Onslaught Tests Resolve at 152, Intervention LoomsThe Japanese Yen finds itself in a precarious position, facing the strongest selling pressure in 17 years. Net yen shorts, a measure of bearish bets, have skyrocketed to their highest level since January 2007 . This relentless shorting comes as the Yen precariously approaches a key psychological barrier: 152 Yen per US Dollar. A Perfect Storm for the Yen Several factors are fueling the Yen's decline: • Central Bank Tug-of-War: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stubbornly clings to its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates near zero. This starkly contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, which is aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation. This disparity makes the US Dollar a far more attractive investment for yield-hungry traders. • Double-Edged Sword: A weaker Yen benefits Japanese exporters by making their products cheaper overseas. However, the boon for exporters translates to pain for consumers, as imports become significantly more expensive. Intervention: A Looming Wildcard The Japanese government has a well-established history of intervening in the currency market to support the Yen. With the currency teetering near 152, a level considered a potential trigger for intervention, all eyes are on the BOJ's next move. Their recent warnings about intervention haven't deterred the bears, adding another layer of intrigue. Will the Bears Breach the 152 Fortress? The record-high short positions suggest investors are firmly convinced the Yen will weaken further. A break below 152 could trigger a domino effect of selling, accelerating the Yen's decline. However, a few factors could offer the Yen some respite: • Intervention by the BOJ: The government might decide to step in and buy Yen to stabilize the currency, especially if the decline becomes disorderly. • Profit-taking: As the Yen weakens, some short-sellers may choose to lock in their profits, potentially alleviating some downward pressure. Trading the Yen: A Delicate Dance The Yen's future trajectory remains shrouded in uncertainty. Here's how traders can navigate this volatile market: • Stay Glued to Geopolitical and Economic News: Monitor US interest rate decisions, BOJ policy announcements, and any signs of intervention by the Japanese government. • Technical Analysis is Your Ally: Utilize TradingView's advanced charting tools to identify potential support and resistance levels for the Yen. • Risk Management is Paramount: The Yen market is highly volatile. Employ stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses. Disclaimer This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Long
by bryandowningqln