Will the EUR/USD find support and rally or give up it's run?In this video I go over EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, NVDA & SPX.
With an overall bearish outlook on the U.S. Dollar, I'm watching for support to hold above 1.1200 on the EUR/USD in order to continue the rally.
Although a pullback was expected after an aggressive up move over the span of 3 weeks, this will be interesting with a good amount of economic data set to release beginning on Tuesday.
We'll see if Bulls hold up or if Bears decide to show some strength.
As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Usdjpyoutlook
USDJPY Short Term Buy Trading Plan Update!!!Hi Traders, on April 23rd I shared this idea "USDJPY Short Term Buy Trading Plan"
I expected bullish continuation higher from the marked Fibonacci support zones. You can read the full post using the link above.
Price reached the first Fibonacci support zone, respected it and bounced higher as expected!!!
If you enjoy this idea, don’t forget to LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌, and COMMENT ✍! Drop your thoughts and charts below to keep the discussion going. Your support helps keep this content free and reach more people! 🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Market Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Fresh IncreaseMarket Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Fresh Increase
USD/JPY is rising and might gain pace above the 142.45 resistance.
Important Takeaways for USD/JPY Analysis Today
- USD/JPY climbed higher above the 141.00 and 141.65 levels.
- There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 141.20 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of USD/JPY at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh upward move from the 140.00 zone. The US Dollar gained bullish momentum above 141.65 against the Japanese Yen.
There was a break above a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 141.20. It even cleared the 50-hour simple moving average and 142.45. The pair climbed above 143.00 and traded as high as 143.21 before there was a downside correction.
The pair dipped below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 139.88 swing low to the 143.21 high. The current price action above the 141.65 level is positive.
Immediate resistance on the USD/JPY chart is near 142.45. The first major resistance is near 143.20. If there is a close above the 143.20 level and the RSI moves above 75, the pair could rise toward 144.50.
The next major resistance is near 145.00, above which the pair could test 148.00 in the coming days. On the downside, the first major support is 141.65 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 139.88 swing low to the 143.21 high.
The next major support is visible near the 141.00 level. If there is a close below 141.00, the pair could decline steadily. In the stated case, the pair might drop toward the 139.90 support zone. The next stop for the bears may perhaps be near the 137.50 region.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USD remains weak across the board. EUR, GBP & JPY Bullish.Not much action due to the extended market break and Easter weekend but I expect more USD selling across the board in the coming weeks ahead.
Long positions are sitting tight but two areas I am keeping an eye on are 1.1200 as a base support and 1.1500 as the resistance hurdle we need to clear in order to open up the gates to 1.2000+
GBP/USD is still a bullish case for me as the short term resistance may be cracking and I'm still expecting for the JPY to advance against the USD.
It's good to get a break from the market volatility but I surely expect it to resume in the coming week!
Good Luck & Trade Safe!
Expecting more USD selling overall: Weekly Market PreviewIn this video I go over last week's epic volatility and what I am looking for going forward.
Long positions on EUR/USD at 1.0980 will remain in tact and still eyeing a target of 1.2000 out of the falling wedge displayed on both the monthly and quarterly charts.
I do expect some pullback after a massive move to the upside to end the week however, the bull can become relentless and continue it's strength due to the U.S. Dollar weakness across the board.
USD/JPY is another one I am watching and initiated a short position at 143.31 with a target at 133. If the large weekly broadening pattern runs it's course, I expect for that target to get hit.
Tech may get relief after Trump announced over the weekend that there will be exemptions but the market can remain irrational and continue overall weakness especially since the U.S. economy as a whole is not well.
Hope you enjoy the video and we'll see what we get this upcoming week, especially with Federal Reserve Powell set to speak on Wednesday.
As always, Good Luck & Trade Safe.
USD/JPY Falls from 154.80 – Is 146 the Next Target?In my post last week about USD/JPY, I mentioned that the pair could resume its decline and draw attention to the 154+ sell zone.
Indeed, USD/JPY started falling after reaching 154.80 and is now trading at 151.72, which is very close to a key horizontal support level.
Looking ahead, I expect this support to break, pushing the pair below 150 and potentially down to the next horizontal support around 146.
In conclusion, my strategy remains unchanged: I will continue looking to sell rallies, with invalidation above last week’s high.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
USDJPY US CPI triggered spikeThe USDJPY currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend.
The key trading level is at 155.50, which is the current swing high. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 155.50 level could target the downside support at 152.76 followed by 151.50 and 150.90 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above 155.50 resistance and a daily close above that level would negate the bearish outlook opening the way for further rallies higher and a retest of 156.00 resistance level followed by 156.74 and 157.70.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
USDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental FactUSDJPY Daily Forecast: Slight Bearish Bias Amid Fundamental Factors (31/10/2024)
Introduction
In today's trading session on October 31, 2024, USDJPY appears to carry a slightly bearish bias due to various fundamental drivers impacting both the US Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). This article provides a detailed analysis of USDJPY, focusing on the major economic and geopolitical factors contributing to the bearish outlook. By considering both macroeconomic trends and the latest technical indicators, traders can better navigate potential setups for the USDJPY pair.
Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting USDJPY Today
1. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Policy Outlook
- The Federal Reserve has recently hinted at maintaining a dovish stance, signaling a potential pause on interest rate hikes. This policy outlook is generally bearish for the USD, as lower interest rates reduce the Dollar’s appeal to investors seeking yield. As a result, the USD could experience downward pressure against the Japanese Yen, contributing to a slight bearish bias for USDJPY.
2. Bank of Japan's Commitment to Policy Adjustments
- The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has gradually shown signs of flexibility in its yield curve control policy, which could strengthen the Yen. Any indication of a potential shift away from ultra-loose monetary policy is generally supportive for JPY, as it attracts investors looking for stability in an uncertain global environment. This shift increases the possibility of a bearish trend in USDJPY.
3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand
- The recent volatility in US Treasury yields has led to fluctuating demand for USD-denominated assets. Lower yields often make the Dollar less attractive, especially in comparison to the Yen, which is considered a traditional safe haven. With a potential decline in yields, demand for USD could weaken, encouraging investors to turn toward JPY and reinforcing the slight bearish outlook for USDJPY.
4. Global Economic Uncertainty and Risk Sentiment
- The recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties have led to higher risk aversion in the markets. In times of heightened uncertainty, the Yen benefits as a safe-haven currency. This risk-off sentiment may draw investors to JPY, increasing its strength against USD and creating bearish pressure on the USDJPY pair.
5. Japanese Economic Data
- Stronger-than-expected Japanese economic data, including stable GDP growth and improved manufacturing output, have added positive momentum to the Yen. These indicators reflect Japan’s gradual recovery, making the Yen more attractive and adding pressure on USDJPY from the Japanese side.
Technical Analysis of USDJPY (31/10/2024)
From a technical perspective, USDJPY trades below its 50-day moving average, a signal commonly associated with bearish trends. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also hovers near the 40 level, suggesting potential downside momentum. Key support levels around 147.50 and resistance near 150.00 should be monitored.
Key Support: 147.50
Key Resistance: 150.00
Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for 31/10/2024
Given today’s fundamentals and technical conditions, USDJPY exhibits a slightly bearish bias. Factors such as the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, the BOJ’s gradual policy adjustments, and risk aversion in global markets are all contributing to the current outlook. However, traders should remain attentive to any unexpected shifts in global economic data or central bank announcements.
For those watching the USDJPY today, focusing on these fundamental drivers and key support levels can provide valuable insights for trading the pair amid a slightly bearish sentiment.
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UsdJpy- Don't p..s against the wind!If there has been a clear trend in the past two years, it has been the devaluation of the JPY. Despite some corrections, even very deep ones, the trend has always resumed, leading to new lows for the JPY.
One of these deeper corrections occurred at the end of last year, triggered, as always, by JPY repatriation.
However, as shown on the chart, the beginning of 2024 saw the resumption of the upward move. Only the BoJ intervention at the end of April and beginning of May at the 160 level stopped the ascent.
The chart shows that the pair has been acting very technically since then, with the drop stopping and reversing precisely at the horizontal support that was previously resistance.
Since then, USD/JPY has started making higher lows again and is now trading around 160.
Only time will tell if the BoJ will be determined to defend this level but, in my personal opinion, it is better to look to buy on dips (around 158) rather than sell at this resistance, hoping for another intervention.
USDJPY I Testing monthly lows as traders stay bearishWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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USDJPY Analysis 27Aug2023I analyze USDJPY using the D1 time frame so that we can know in general terms the trends that are occurring and the possibilities that could occur in the future.
If you look at the series of waves that have occurred, currently there is a correction in wave B with the price forming waves a-b-c-d-e and heading to the QM area. by adding the RSI indicator we can see that the price has entered the saturation area and there is a divergence on the RSI. one of the signs that in the future there will be a reversal.
USDJPY Analysis 23July2023USDJPY's journey is in accordance with last week's analysis where the price was stuck in the support area and now it is corrected and enters the fibo 0.382 area. If you look at the close of this week and a fairly strong bullish candle is formed, and the price pattern is lined up on a curved line, it is likely that strong bullish will still dominate after this.
USDJPY Analysis 16July2023for two weeks experienced a deep bearish as far as 700pips, this pair is positively included in the bearish trend. at the end of the week there was a correction which if we pull the fibo retracement until the end of the week still reaches the level of 0.786, I estimate this correction can reach the level of 0.382.
USDJPY 29June2023if you look at the price movement in the past week it looks very slow but the price is still moving bullish, this looks like price compression. usually when something like this happens, in the near future there will be a fairly high price jump.
the initial target is still the same, namely in the fibo extension area of 1,618 and it could be that the price jumped high towards the SnD area above the fibo extension.
USDJPY: Economic volatility!During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/JPY pair faced selling pressure, causing a partial erosion of the previous day's gains that had exceeded the 144.00 level, reaching a new high since November 2022. The spot price is currently trading around 143.80, down nearly 0.20% for the day, although any significant downward adjustments still seem elusive.
Japanese officials continue to issue warnings against the recent weakness of the Japanese Yen (JPY), which is considered a key factor driving some long-term relaxation around the USD/JPY pair. In fact, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated on Tuesday that they will closely monitor the forex market with a sense of urgency and will react accordingly if currency movements become excessive. This warning was reiterated by top Japanese currency diplomat Masato Kanda earlier this Wednesday.
USDJPY 23June2023if you look at the elliot notation and fibo extension placement, then wave 3 is right at 1.618, which means wave 3 is already 1.6x longer than wave 1.
I want to predict where the USDJPY price moves using the fibo extension, and it could be that the price goes to the fibo extension of 1.618 as well. if you look at the trendline, there is a possibility that the price will respond positively to the trendline, which also meets the fibo extension area.
I think this notation is quite correct, because wave 3 is not the shortest wave. as evidenced by the price at 1,618, and wave 5 could be a bullish continuation, this type of bullish can run for quite a long time. if you want to go short, it's better to wait for a fairly positive bearish confirmation.
USDJPY Swing IdeaDont try to predict the market. Rather, prepare. Create potential scenarios or outcomes and how you will react to the market in those different instances. This will hep control your fear and uncertainty thus, giving you confidence in your trades. I cant give out exactly how I enter trades but I would advise you to have a minimum of three confluences convincing you to open positions.
*Disclaimer*
This is not financial advise. Fore is a risky business. Trade at your own risk. Always exercise proper risk management and have the patience to see your trades play out.
My previous setups and analysis speak for themselves with regards to my growth and precision. Send me a message for more info.
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