Daily Outlook of USD/JPYUSD/JPY the pair is overall still under pressure with Japanese Yen outperforming against its major counterparts, but recent price action highlights the risk for a larger rebound in the exchange rate as the pair fails to test the 2018-low (108.28).Fresh comments from Fed officials have done little to alter the near-term outlook for USD/JPY as Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan wishes to normalize monetary policy ‘in a patient and balanced manner,’ while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic sees ‘a slow gradual pace of raising interest rates’ as the central bank looks for signs of stronger inflation. As technically the pair trading in range bound with the support 109.00 and resistance on 110.10 , that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to resume its bearish track that its next target located at 107.28, while breaching the resistance represents the key to start recovery attempts that target 111.00 followed by 111.88 levels initially. We can see one more leg down.
Usdjpyoutlook
USDJPY dropping nicely, remain bearishSell below 114.07. Stop loss at 114.77. Take profit at 112.90.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price continues to drop nicely from our selling area. We remain bearish below 140.07 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). We also tighten our stop loss to 114.77 to protect our profits. Profit target is at 112.90 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing pullback resistance at 69% which corresponding to the reaction we are seeing off 114.07 in price. We hope to see a stronger reaction for a further drop.
USDJPY profit target reached perfectly again, time to buyBuy above 112.58. Stop loss at 112.21. Take profit at 113.75.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target from yesterday. We turn bullish above 112.58 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 113.75 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).
RSI (34) is seeing strong support which is signalling to a price bounce.
USDJPY bouncing nicely, remain bullishBuy above 111.35. Stop loss at 110.10. Take profit at 113.15.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bullish above 111.35 support (major Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci projection) for a push up to at least 113.15 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 8% level.
USDJPY October 24 Outlook and weekly forex analysisUSDJPY October 24 Outlook and weekly forex analysis
As we can see, descending triangle pattern already perform since last October 12 on USD/JPY, as long as this pattern not break, play inside this pattern will be a perfect idea.
In short position, stoploss above pattern resistance, and in long position stoploss below support level
- if the pattern break down, september resistance will be a good support level on USDJPY this week, this level also as September 21 resistance, and october 09 support. If descending triangle pattern break down, this strong support zone will be a good tahe profit for shotr position and to consider re-entry long position. As we see with fibonacci pattern, 182.84 are 1.414 fibo point. In this week, if triangle pattern break down, this level will hold bearish movement.
- if USD-JPY break up, we see inverted head and shoulders pattern perform. The best idea for this pattern are wait for neckline break, and entry at retest neckline. Target profit will be at inverted head and shoulders pattern projection. October 06 resistance are the neckline position for this week. To be able to confirm bullish trend in USDJPY, we should wait this neckline break first, and enter long position at neckline re-test. And we have a resistance (as lvl2 confirmation)