Usdjpyoutlook
USDJPY | Perspective for the new weekThe price moved 40pips in our direction since my last publication (see link below for reference purposes) before finding Lower Lows to project a certain level of weakness in the GReenback. With the latest development in price action, I am keeping my expectations for further strength in the Japanese yen high in the coming week(s).
Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish )
Structure: Double Top (Reversal Pattern) | Supply & Demand
Observation: i. DT (Reversal pattern): The appearance of a Bearish pattern that forms after the price reaches a culmination @ Y104.200/104.400 area two consecutive times with a moderate decline between the two highs points at the risk of further decline in price.
ii. The recent Lower Lows explains the inability of buyers to push the price beyond Y104.400 last week hereby negating my previous broadcast (see link below).
iii. Y103.900 level appears to be our New Supply level in the coming week(s) as price keep finding Lower Lows.
iv. To be more cautious could welcome the idea of waiting for a significant Breakdown of Neckline @ Y104.500 before joining the decline.
Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 150 pips.
Risk/Reward : 1:5
Potential Duration: 4 to 10 days
NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes.
Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored.
Risk Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Long USDJPYUSDJPY: 4-hour cycle is bearish against 12/15/2016 (118.66) while 1-hour cycle remains bullish against 3/26/2018 low (104.56). Near-term correction against 5/30 cycle is proposed complete at 110.57 low, while dips remain above there and more importantly above 5/30 low (108.06) pair is expected to resume the upside. We don’t like selling the pair and prefer more upside as far as a pivot at 108.06 low stays intact.
Buy @ 111.25/111.10
Target : 112.00
Stop loss : 110.96
gud luck !
USDJPY - Daily UpdateRecent price action: Bearish
Pattern: Break of trend support
Long-term momentum: *Bearish
Short-term momentum: Bearish
Bias: Long
Action: Do not trade until price identifies further momentum. Could see further movement to the downside, or price may reverse at its current level. Everything depends on where the daily candle closes.
Comments: News of a trade war killed this pair. Next 7-10 days should be interesting. A complete shift in momentum would be warranted once price breaks below daily support. Could also be forming a head and shoulders pattern.
Daily Outlook of USD/JPYUSD/JPY the pair is overall still under pressure with Japanese Yen outperforming against its major counterparts, but recent price action highlights the risk for a larger rebound in the exchange rate as the pair fails to test the 2018-low (108.28).Fresh comments from Fed officials have done little to alter the near-term outlook for USD/JPY as Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan wishes to normalize monetary policy ‘in a patient and balanced manner,’ while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic sees ‘a slow gradual pace of raising interest rates’ as the central bank looks for signs of stronger inflation. As technically the pair trading in range bound with the support 109.00 and resistance on 110.10 , that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to resume its bearish track that its next target located at 107.28, while breaching the resistance represents the key to start recovery attempts that target 111.00 followed by 111.88 levels initially. We can see one more leg down.
USDJPY dropping nicely, remain bearishSell below 114.07. Stop loss at 114.77. Take profit at 112.90.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price continues to drop nicely from our selling area. We remain bearish below 140.07 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). We also tighten our stop loss to 114.77 to protect our profits. Profit target is at 112.90 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing pullback resistance at 69% which corresponding to the reaction we are seeing off 114.07 in price. We hope to see a stronger reaction for a further drop.
USDJPY profit target reached perfectly again, time to buyBuy above 112.58. Stop loss at 112.21. Take profit at 113.75.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
Price has dropped perfectly and reached our profit target from yesterday. We turn bullish above 112.58 support (Fibonacci retracement, Fibonacci projection, horizontal overlap support) for a push up to 113.75 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance).
RSI (34) is seeing strong support which is signalling to a price bounce.
USDJPY bouncing nicely, remain bullishBuy above 111.35. Stop loss at 110.10. Take profit at 113.15.
Reason for the trading strategy (technically):
We remain bullish above 111.35 support (major Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, Fibonacci projection) for a push up to at least 113.15 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, swing high resistance).
Stochastic (21,5,3) is seeing strong support above the 8% level.
USDJPY October 24 Outlook and weekly forex analysisUSDJPY October 24 Outlook and weekly forex analysis
As we can see, descending triangle pattern already perform since last October 12 on USD/JPY, as long as this pattern not break, play inside this pattern will be a perfect idea.
In short position, stoploss above pattern resistance, and in long position stoploss below support level
- if the pattern break down, september resistance will be a good support level on USDJPY this week, this level also as September 21 resistance, and october 09 support. If descending triangle pattern break down, this strong support zone will be a good tahe profit for shotr position and to consider re-entry long position. As we see with fibonacci pattern, 182.84 are 1.414 fibo point. In this week, if triangle pattern break down, this level will hold bearish movement.
- if USD-JPY break up, we see inverted head and shoulders pattern perform. The best idea for this pattern are wait for neckline break, and entry at retest neckline. Target profit will be at inverted head and shoulders pattern projection. October 06 resistance are the neckline position for this week. To be able to confirm bullish trend in USDJPY, we should wait this neckline break first, and enter long position at neckline re-test. And we have a resistance (as lvl2 confirmation)