USDJPY H4 - Big Dip IncomingHey everyone, I hope you all have been able to bank on all of the movement that USDJPY has been giving us! After a nice bull run, the pairing is continuing to retrace.
The TP of 121.480 on my previous signal has already been reached and the movement will continue downward.
Based on current chart movement I am overall bearish on USDJPY.
I have a safe sell entry placed at 121.100 with potential TP of 120.600 | 119.900 | 118.645 .
I have a resistance of 125.100 and support of 115.820 . Price 122.500 invalidates this trade.
Be sure to like and let me know what you think of this analysis in the comments.
Usdjpysell
USDJOY-SELL strategyNo change in view.
The pattern and market condition still the same. we are overbought for the medium-term (coming few weeks that is), but would suggest picking sell levels and not to just jump in. Also I wish to explain, that my personal strategy is scaling in to positions carefully. This does not mean that I can predict highs or lows, but trying to find a good mix of entered transactions to create a profitable one in the end. That does mean negative floats that are manageable. This is in responsive to some comments, whereby some are creating a blaming session towards me. It is always the responsibility of the reader to take positions and manage them. If one cannot manage them, they should have professionals manage it for them in stead. Trading is a difficult profession and not all will be successful.
Anyway, let's focus on where we are right now.
Coming back to the strategy, I see this as follows:
SELL @ 122.60-80 range and SELL again @ 123.50-70 for a move to 119.27. I think we may see even lower then this level.
USDJYP- SELL strategyThe short-term SELL suggestion worked very well, and the profit was taken @ 121.41 (instead of 121.17 order).
This means the short-term seems corrected a bit, and now we place focus on weekly chart for a medium-term objective.
The strategy is still same, we SELL in rally, and build slowly the position. That is why for now, weekly charts is overbought, but corrected a bit due to the short-term correction.
Strategy is SELL @ 122.60-122.80 (small leverage) and add further @ 123.30 and @ 124.30 when seen.
Profit order overall is 119.20 for now.
USDJPY-SELL+++++No change in view.
I have now a reasonable short position @ 122.67 average. As stated before will add only above 125.00 again.
For new positions, SELL @ 123.50-123.80 range and add SELL again @ 124.50-124.70 for a corrective move 120.97.
Currently I will take back based on the following:
30% @ 122.67
30% @ 122.17
rest @ 121.17 for now.
USDJPY-SELL+++++No change in view.
I have just added another SELL @ 122.90 and average now 121.47. The leverage still quite reasonable and am happy to be with the position.
The daily and weekly chart both showing severe overbought conditions, and al what is required some patience and managing it.
The take back levels (profit orders) is now as follows:
25% @ 121.65
25% @ 120.87
rest @ 120.17.
USD/JPY is waiting for the big correction. Get, set & ready USD/JPY has been rising since January 2021. It becomes unstoppable. As all beginnings have an end, no matter how high USD/JPY rises, it will wear out very soon.
But firstly, we have to understand why it is rising. Why is the Japanese Yen weak against all currencies despite being a safe-haven asset.
The Bank of Japan itself acts as the mastermind behind the weakening of the Japanese yen. I have been trading since 2007. I saw from the beginning that the Bank of Japan would weaken the Japanese Yen by intervening whenever they got a chance.
Since Japan is an export-dependent country, the weakening Japanese yen is good for the Japanese economy, At list Bank of Japan thinks.
There are several other reasons why the Japanese yen has been weak for more than a year now. At the same time, the Bank of Japan wants a weaker yen. On the other hand, in this time of inflationary pressure, where almost all banks, starting with the Fed, are raising rates, the Bank of Japan is announcing that it will not raise rates. By doing so, those who will invest in Japanese yen are also falling behind due to not getting an overnight swap.
After World War II, Japan retreated a lot militarily, but in recent times, due to Chinese domination, Japan seems to be regaining military power. This is the main reason why investors are ignoring the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset.
Switzerland is much more neutral. Due to this the Swiss franc is still getting the benefit of safe haven. Japan has also been neutral for a long time. But in recent times, Japan has been trying to break out of its neutrality and create a ring of its own.
For all these reasons, the Japanese Yen is not able to take advantage of this crisis even as a safe haven.
However, if oil prices continue to rise, the Bank of Japan will not be able to keep the yen weak even if it wants to. If the yen is too weak to raise energy prices, Japanese companies will have to pay a lot more to buy oil. In doing so, the Japanese economy will suffer from the disadvantages of the weak yen, rather than the advantages it had.
USD/JPY is only 400 pips away from its all-time high zone. I think it has now come to a level very close to dropping in the long run.
Technical Analysis
If USD/JPY’s weekly candle closes below the 122.50 price zone, there is a chance that USD/JPY might drop from the current level. On the other side, closing above 122.50 price zone may lead the USD/JPY 124 to 125.00. From my view, correction is a must on that level and hopefully 122.50.
USDJPY-SELL+++No change in view.
I had trimmed 25% @ 121.21 and SOLD again @ 122.05 and average now 121.08 with a reasonable leverage.
We got hammer top and we are into the high of the DC and we are very overbought still.
For now I will ADD @ 122.60 when seen, and the profit order are:
1. BUY @ 121.20 25% of position
2. BUY @ 120.78 25% of position
3. Balance @ 120.08.
USDJPY-SELL++++No change in view.
I am slowly adding on the way up and just added SELL @ 122.35. The average now 120.97 on the position with reasonable leverage. I will add further with a more aggressive stance.
The overall condition does not change, and markets always are extreme one way or another, but the fact remains, market is LONG USD and this requires correction.
The profit orders are as follows: 25% @ 120.97, 25% @ 120.37 and rest @ 119.47 for now.
USDJPY-SELL+++No change in view.
The market is extremely overbought short-term, and for that reason we have carefully scaled in SHORTS. the average now 120.49 with reasonable leverage. The strategy for NEW positions to sell CURRENT @ 121.00 area and increase SELL @ 121.40 etc.
For now profit order is 25% @ 120.49 (you can change this according to your short average) and the next 25% @ 119.88 and rest @ 119.18 for now.
USDJPY-SELL++++No change in view.25%
I have added just now another SELL @ 121.17 and leverage still friendly overall with an average of 120.30 right now.
The pattern starts developing to look like FALSE BULL FLAG and we all understand the pattern likely end result, to move back to the start of the pole.
For now take-back orders (profit orders) are as follows: 25% @ 120.29, 25% @ 119.78 and rest @ 118.98 for now. I may add more higher and will update when I do.
USDJPY SHORT IDEA Overall still very bearish on USDJPY.
We are currently in a very strong area of supply. Due to the Japanese bank holiday today and Powell's speech we have seen a bullish push.
Our bias remains intact, technicals suggest that the shorts are still in play.
Looking forward to see how this plays out in a day or two
Disclaimer:
These charts should only be used for educational purposes and not as signals. Trading entails high risk !
God bless,
ETGL TEAM 💛
USD/JPY SELL NOW...
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USDJPY SHORT/SELL IDEAHello Traders,
Hope you are having an amazing week.
Above is my analysis on USDJPY, overall perspective is very BEARISH.
One thing to keep in mind this week before taking a trade is the fundamental outlook on both the USD & Yen Pairs.
Nevertheless, our perspective is still bearish given that we are currently in a key area of supply.
Looking forward to see how this plays out.
Thank you for your support,
ETGL TEAM 💛