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USD/JPY) breakout bearish trand analysis Read The captionSMC trading point update Technical analysis of the USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) pair on a 2-hour timeframe. Here's the idea behind the analysis: --- Overall Idea: Bearish Move Toward Support --- Key Levels Resistance Zone (Yellow Box, Top): Marked with two red arrows — shows strong price rejection around 146.00–147.00 area. Support Zone (Yellow Box, Bottom): Around 139.85, marked as a target point and support level. These two zones form the range in which price has been reacting. --- Current Price Action Price is currently trading at 142.649, well below the 200 EMA (at 144.190), which is a bearish signal. It has broken below the mid-range and seems to be heading toward the lower support zone (139.85). --- Trend & Structure The price is following a downward trend after rejecting from the resistance zone. The channel suggests a further leg down is likely to complete a measured move. A temporary retest of the broken trendline might occur before continuation down. --- RSI (Relative Strength Index) Currently around 31.83, nearing oversold territory, indicating the potential for: A short-term bounce before further downside, or A reversal near the key support zone. --- Projection The projection arrow (blue) suggests a bullish rebound from the 139.85 support zone. This aligns with a potential buy opportunity once support is confirmed. Mr SMC Trading point --- Conclusion (Trade Idea Summary) Short-Term Bias: Bearish Medium-Term Setup: Look for a buy opportunity around 139.85, if price reacts well. Key Steps: 1. Watch for price to reach 139.85. 2. Look for bullish reversal patterns or confirmations at that level (e.g., bullish engulfing, RSI divergence). 3. If confirmed, a potential long trade could target back toward the 144–145 zone. Please Support boost this analysis )
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
14
Japanese Yen to Da Moon!I compared the yen to every single currency pair and USDJPY is the most volatile. BOJ will raise interest rates to 0.75%-1% by late 2025/early 2026. And IF the FED chooses to lower rates that will further exacerbate Yen strength. 103.156 TP, but TBH I see price breaking well past that point and yen will make new all time highs. The dollar will get desecrated across all currencies, the yen will destroy it the hardest. Most likely BTC will also peak around this same time period and youll see and end to the bull cycle and we will enter BTC bear cycle but that is beside the point. Potential Black Swan Event: the US enters into a recessionary environment, while I dont think this is likely bc everyone is saying that, it will be possible if we see a further escalation in the Ukraine conflict or if the US chooses to enter war with Iran. War is the only situation I see potential US recession. I predicted then yen would get dusted during COVID, now I predict yen will make never seen before gains for the next 5 years minimum. Let's see how this plays out.
Short
by CryptoKarmaker
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 4, 2025 USDJPYEvents to pay attention today: 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services Business Activity Index 15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change USDJPY: The Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting some intraday buyers after falling against the US dollar during the Asian session, and, at least for now, it seems that its pullback from the weekly high reached yesterday has paused. An upward revision of Japan's services business activity index, as well as expectations that wage growth will lead to faster inflation, leave open the possibility of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025. In addition, ongoing geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty are key factors supporting the JPY. Meanwhile, cautious statements by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday sparked speculation that the next interest rate hike will not happen anytime soon. However, this still differs significantly from expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates by at least 25 basis points (bps) by the end of this year. This, along with concerns about the US budget, is causing a new wave of selling of the US dollar (USD) after Tuesday's decent rebound from a six-week low and is putting some pressure on the USD/JPY pair during the Asian session. Trading recommendation: SELL 144.20, SL 144.40, TP 143.20
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/JPY Trapped in Consolidation QuagmireDuring the European session, the USD/JPY exchange rate oscillated around 143.10, extending the consolidation pattern triggered by the weak US dollar overnight. Influenced by the worse-than-expected US May ADP and ISM services data, the US Dollar Index fell to a six-week low of 98.60, and the USD/JPY rate also hit a low of 142.53. Subsequently, it rebounded slightly supported by the stable results of Japan's 30-year government bond auction and the decline in yields. Currently, the market is widely focused on the upcoming US May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and is reassessing the path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Short
by Ashbur
UsdJpy could break 142 and fall 500 pipsSince early May, I’ve been highlighting the 142 support zone on USDJPY as a potential reversal area — with a suggested upside target at 146. The market respected this level twice, reversing from 142 and rallying past 146 both times. However, last week’s move into 146 was sharply rejected, forming a strong daily Pin Bar exactly at resistance — a classic sign of exhaustion. Now, price is rolling back toward support, and after multiple tests of the 142 zone, we may be very close to a downside break. 🧩 Add to this the fact that DXY also looks ready to break lower, and the probability of a USDJPY fall increases even more. 📉 Trading Plan: Sell rallies, with invalidation above 146, and a target at 137, aiming for a 1:2 risk-reward setup. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
19
Prices are testing the 142.55 support level.Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Tuesday that the central bank would raise interest rates if the economy re-accelerates, adding that wage growth must regain momentum. Currently, Trump's tariff policies have dimmed the economic outlook, making it potentially not the optimal time for a rate hike. However, policymakers stand ready to raise rates if the economy rebounds after a brief pullback. The remarks bolstered the Japanese yen, with prices now testing the 142.55 support level. A decisive break below this level would form a lower low, confirming the continuation of the downtrend and shifting bearish targets toward the 140.01 support level. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term. Trading Strategy: sell@144.50-145.00 TP:143.00-142.50
Short
by Ashbur
Risk, Rates, and Reversals: What’s Next for USD/JPY?CMCMARKETS:USDJPY FX:USDJPY USD/JPY rebounded slightly to 143.10 but remains under pressure after slipping from the 144.50 on BoJ-Fed divergence and rising geopolitical tensions. While the BoJ appears cautious about accelerating its balance sheet tapering beyond FY2026, it still signals further rate hikes amid persistent domestic inflation, offering the yen structural support. Technically, price is reacting off the lower trendline TL2, aligned with the 142.30–142.40 significant support zone. This area has held multiple times in the past and may offer a bullish pullback toward the 143.80 or even 146.15 resistance zones. However, failure to break above these levels could expose USD/JPY to renewed downside toward the 140.89 demand base. Short-term recovery depends on Friday’s NFP and risk sentiment around trade tensions. A break below 142.30 would invalidate the bullish rebound and open downside to support near 140.89. Resistance : 143.87 , 146.14 Support : 142.36 , 140.89
Short
by ATFX_Global
Short I opened a short position yesterday at the price of 147.50.    Currently the price is 146.18.  The price has dropped quite a bit but I think it still has a good short entry opportunity with a reasonable risk reward. Reasons for short trade: The price has reached the major support level around 149 on the 22nd April.   Since then, the price has moved up to the fair value gap area between 149.2 and 148.2 (blue rectangular box), and also the order block.    That area is also the Fib 0786 area.  I look at Fib 0.786 as the last line of defence and it is usually a hard line to break. The price hit the area and started to move to the downside.  Momentum indicators are still in the bull territory but the lines have crossed and clearly moving to the downside.   My macro bias for USD is bearish and the current price set up support my bias. The risk reward is good enough for me to enter. My trade set up: Entry: 147.51Stop: 148.95Target: 142.478 (Fib 0.236) Risk:Reward= 1:3.5 Currently the price is 146.17.  It just broked below Fib 0.618.     Entry now can give you 1:1.5 risk reward.  
Short
by EbonyFalcon
Was This Week's Move in USD/JPY Just a Correction?This week’s bounce in USD/JPY may have caught some traders off guard—but when viewed through the lens of the Elliott Wave Principle, the price action appears to be corrective rather than impulsive. 🧩 The Evidence: A 3-Wave Move According to the wave structure: The recent move up unfolded in 3 waves, labeled as an ABC correction. Wave C terminated near the 100% Fibonacci extension of Wave A (~146.189), which is a classic ZigZag ratio. Additionally, there was a clear MACD divergence between price and momentum as Wave C completed—a common sign that the move is running out of steam and that the wave is likely terminal. These clues all point to the idea that the rally was corrective, not the start of a new impulsive trend. 📉 What Comes Next? If this count is correct: USD/JPY may have completed Wave (ii) of a new downward impulse. The next move could be the start of Wave (iii)—typically the most aggressive and directional wave in a 5-wave decline. ✅ Trigger Level: A break below the B wave low would act as a technical confirmation of the downtrend resuming. This would be a green light to look for short setups, depending on the strategy each trader follows—whether that’s pattern-based, indicator-confirmed, or structure-driven. 🔁 Alternate Scenario: If this isn't the start of Wave (iii), the alternate count would suggest a more complex corrective combination (such as a double three). However, even in that scenario, the short-term direction is still likely downward. 🧠 For Beginners: Elliott Wave theory breaks price into 5-wave trends and 3-wave corrections. A ZigZag correction (ABC) is made up of a sharp Wave A, a pullback in Wave B, and a final move up in Wave C. Wave C often shows momentum divergence (MACD diverging from price), signaling that the move may be exhausting. When C = A, especially with divergence, it’s often a sign the correction is ending. 📌 Summary: USD/JPY’s rally appears to be a corrective ABC structure. Wave C rejected at the 100% extension of A, with MACD divergence confirming weakening momentum. A break of the B wave low could confirm that Wave (iii) down is underway. Even in the alternate count, near-term downside is still favored. 💬 Got a Favorite Chart You’d Like Analyzed? If there’s a forex pair, crypto, or stock you’d like me to break down using Elliott Waves, leave a comment below and I’ll feature it in an upcoming post from Real Wave Trader.
Short
by RealWaveTrader-
Skeptic | USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Fuels Short Setups!Hey everyone, Skeptic here! I know some of you might’ve missed our last USD/CHF short signal that hit a sweet 3:1 R/R—no worries! 😊 The market’s always here, so missing a trade isn’t the end of the world. I’m not here to push FOMO; my goal is to take you on a long-term trading journey, and I’m stoked to have you along for the ride! :))) Let’s get back to USD/JPY and break down the latest action. 📊 Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture First, let’s zoom out and talk about the DXY (US Dollar Index), which recently broke the 99.005 support and turned bearish. This puts USD-based pairs like USD/JPY in the spotlight for short opportunities this week. Here’s what’s happening with USD/JPY: Trend Context: The major trend is bearish. Last week, sellers showed no mercy to buyers, and with DXY’s bearish move, we’re likely to see more of the same this week. Key Level: We’re currently reacting to a major daily support at 142.305. Expect a range or reaction here, so we must wait for confirmation before shorting. Recent Correction: The prior correction reached the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement and seems to have resumed the major bearish trend. With this in mind, let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to hunt for long and short setups. 4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups The 4-hour chart is giving us some clear signals to work with. Here’s the plan: Short Setup: Key Level: The 142.338 level is critical, as it formed a ceiling at 148.569 in the past and acted as support before. Trigger: If we form a lower high and then break below 142.305, open a short position. Confirmation: Use RSI to back up the breakout, ensuring momentum aligns. Why It Works: A lower high signals increasing weakness in this support, making a break more likely. Long Setup: My Take: I personally don’t have a long trigger right now. Both the major and minor trends are downtrends, so going long doesn’t make sense in these conditions. If You Insist: If you’re set on a long, wait for a break above 144.125. But keep it tight—low risk, small stop loss, and take profits quickly once you hit a decent R/R. 💬 Let’s Talk! If this analysis sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it really helps! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to dive into next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll tackle it. Thanks for joining me—see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️
by SkepticWise
3
Bullish Reversal on Risk-On Shift and Channel BreakoutCMCMARKETS:USDJPY USD/JPY surged as risk appetite returned after a U.S. federal court blocked President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, undermining demand for safe-haven assets like the yen. Meanwhile, weak demand in Japan’s 40-year bond auction raised concerns over fiscal stability, adding further downside pressure to JPY. Technically, the pair broke above a downward channel and formed a bullish engulfing pattern near the 144.90 demand zone. If price consolidates above 145.00, a test of the 148.15 resistance zone is possible. Traders now eye upcoming U.S. GDP and PCE inflation data for direction on Fed policy. Resistance : 148.14 , 148.67 Support : 144.90 , 144.42
Long
by ATFX_Global
USDJPY Breakout Watch | Bullish Momentum Toward Key ResistanceUSD/JPY is showing strong bullish momentum on the 15-minute chart, breaking out of a consolidation range with increased volume. Technical Highlights: Price has surged with strong bullish candles, showing clean impulsive movement. The key level at 144.39 is being tested as potential breakout resistance. If price sustains above this zone, it may target the next resistance area near 145.35. Clean price structure with volume supporting upward movement. Risk is managed with a stop below the breakout level, targeting a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. This setup reflects trend continuation with bullish momentum and clear technical structure. 📈 Watching closely for confirmation and follow-through above key breakout zone.
Short
by UAE_USA_GOLD_TRADERS
USDJPY Analysis – Yield Support Signals Potential UpsideUSDJPY is currently sitting at a key support zone around 142.80–143.00, showing signs of a potential bullish reversal. This support area has previously acted as a strong launchpad for price rallies. 🟢 Technical Setup: Price action has formed a clean higher low structure, bouncing off horizontal support. The US10Y Treasury Yield (pink line) has rebounded sharply and is diverging to the upside — a leading indicator for USDJPY strength. The Fib retracement from the last swing move aligns well with the 0% zone, suggesting the dip might be complete. A bullish reaction from here targets the 148.50 zone, with intermediate resistance around 145.00–146.00. 🟠 Risk Levels: Invalidated below 141.40 (structure break). Stops could be placed below 142.00, targeting a 2:1 or better risk-reward ratio. 🔍 Macro-Fundamental Insight: U.S. Yields are firming despite mixed Fed signals — this gives strength to USD, especially against low-yielders like the JPY. BOJ remains dovish with no urgency to normalize rates, keeping the yen weak. With risk appetite improving and bond yields lifting, carry trade dynamics favor USDJPY upside. ✅ Conclusion: As long as US10Y yields remain firm and USD holds above 142.00, USDJPY has a strong probability of rallying toward 148.50. Look for confirmation with higher highs on the 4H chart and continued divergence between yield and price.
Long
by ultreosforex
30
0527: Bearish USD/JPY: BoJ Rate Hike Expectations Hello traders, In the futures market, I once again came across a more "interesting" piece of data. The COT position data showed that the speculative long positions in the Japanese yen soared to 167,330 contracts, reaching an extreme level not seen in recent years. ★ I would like to present another set of data: ✔ In April, the price of rice in Japan soared by 98.4% year-on-year, marking the largest monthly increase since 1971. This increase was even higher than the 92.1% in March. ✔ The Japanese government cancelled subsidies for gas and electricity in March, causing energy prices to rise by 9.3%. ✔ Japan's core CPI excluding fresh food rose by 3.5% year-on-year, higher than 3.2% in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of core inflation above 3%. ✔ Meanwhile, the Japanese economy contracted by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, marking the first negative growth since the first quarter of 2024. ✔ Within 45 days, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds soared by 100 basis points, reaching a record high of 3.20%. Over 500 billion US dollars of 40-year Japanese government bonds, regarded as "safe assets", have depreciated by more than 20% in the past 6 weeks. Technically, weekly chart, UJ has make a bearish reversed bowl top and now this pair is targeting south running beneath WEEKLY EMAs. The support zone that be test triple would become resistance zone very soon. The weekly selling targets are marked out on this chart! Based on the latest market trends and the policy signals from the Bank of Japan, there is a high probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its next meeting (expected to be in June 2025). It is now the time to buy the expectation and sell the reality. GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera
USDJPY Bearish Continuation Setup Trend Analysis The market is in a clear downtrend, evidenced by the sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The descending trendline has been respected multiple times, acting as dynamic resistance. 🧠 Key Technical Factors Rejection Zone (Supply Area): The marked “Rejection Point” aligns with the confluence of the trendline resistance, 50 EMA (red), and historical supply. Price attempted to break above but faced a strong rejection—signaling institutional sell interest. EMA Confluence: 50 EMA (142.993) and 200 EMA (144.063) are both sloping downward. Price is trading below both EMAs, confirming bearish momentum and trend continuation bias. BOS (Break of Structure): Multiple BOS levels marked, showing a consistent pattern of structure breaks to the downside. Each rally is met with selling pressure, failing to create new highs. 🧩 Projected Price Action Current retracement could retest the trendline/50 EMA before a potential continuation move downward. Expectation is a lower high formation near the descending trendline followed by a bearish impulse. 🏹 Bias: Bearish Traders might consider short opportunities around the 142.90–143.00 zone, targeting 142.00 and below, with stops just above the trendline/supply zone. ⚠️ Risk Note A clean break and close above the trendline and 50 EMA would invalidate this setup and could lead to a shift in structure.
Short
by MrStellanSight
8
USD/JPY - H1 - Channel Breakout (17.05.2025) The Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours. Possible Short Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Support – 142.40 2nd Support – 140.17 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
62
USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Bias with Multi-Market Confluence!📉 USDJPY Technical Breakdown – Yen Strength in Focus 📉 In this video, we take a close look at the USD/JPY, which is currently under pressure and trending to the downside 🔽. The bearish momentum is clear, but there are several key factors to consider before positioning ourselves for a potential short 📊. 🔍 First, it’s important to monitor the equity markets. If we start to see a pullback or sell-off in the stock indices 🏦📉, that could translate into further yen strength, adding weight to a USD/JPY short bias 💴💪. Another key piece of confluence is comparing the DXY (Dollar Index) 📈 with the JXY (Japanese Yen Index) 📉. This gives us deeper insight into the relative strength of each currency and helps confirm our directional bias before entering a trade ⚖️. 🔁 Coming back to the USD/JPY chart, we’re watching for a retracement into a Fibonacci point of interest, which could provide a high-probability area to enter a sell setup. If price reacts from that level and confirms with structure, we could have a clean opportunity for continuation 🔂🎯. ⚠️ This is not financial advice — always conduct your own analysis and manage risk accordingly.
Short
by fxtraderanthony
1
USDJPY Bearish in the short term.The USD/JPY exchange rate extended its recent downward trend during the European session, falling for the third consecutive trading day and marking the sixth decline in the past seven trading days. It hit a two-week low in the 143.45 area during the European morning session. Multiple factors have jointly driven the exchange rate lower, indicating that the sharp pullback from the monthly high of 148.65 reached last Monday may continue to extend. The Japanese yen is supported by market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will raise interest rates again and has gained additional momentum from the rebound in risk-aversion demand. In the short term, USD/JPY maintains a downward trend, with technical indicators showing that bears are in control. 142.210 will be a key support level; a break below this level could accelerate the decline toward the 139.887 area. In the market, there are no absolutes, and neither upward nor downward trends are set in stone. Therefore, the ability to judge the balance between market gains and losses is your key to success. Let money become our loyal servant.
Short
by Ashbur
Short USD/JPYShort USD/JPY – policy-divergence finally tilting in the yen’s favor as BoJ hawks talk rates higher and U-S data cool. • BoJ hawks signaling further 2025 hikes while Fed easing bets build → policy-divergence flips JPY-positive. • Break & close below 38.2 % retracement and 200-SMA (H4) turns momentum south; hourly / daily RSI roll-over. • Geopolitics easing removes safe-haven bid for USD, but not for JPY (BoJ still seen hiking). • Bearish trigger deepens if 144.30 confluence (200-SMA H4 + 50 % Fib) gives way → air-pocket into 141s.
Short
by TerraBullMarkets
USD/JPY Breakdown: Sell the Rallies, Ride the TrendUSD/JPY has decisively shifted bearish across all key timeframes. On the daily chart, the pair broke below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs with consistent lower highs and lows. The hourly chart confirms this trend, with bearish EMA stacking and failed attempts to reclaim the 200-hour EMA. RSI remains under 50 across timeframes, signaling persistent bearish momentum without exhaustion. The 15-minute chart highlights ideal short-entry setups on pullbacks to the 20- or 50-EMA, especially when RSI fails to breach 50. The 200-EMA on this timeframe acts as dynamic resistance near 145.30. Short entries are favorable on rallies to the 145.10–145.35 zone, with downside targets at 144.80, 144.50, and potentially 144.20. For the week ahead, the strategy is clear: fade rallies into EMA resistance and use RSI confirmation for timing. Avoid chasing lows—wait for price to come to you. Tight stops just above the EMAs minimize risk, and partial profit-taking at swing lows allows for trend-riding flexibility. As long as USD/JPY remains below the 200-hour EMA, bearish momentum dominates. Trade with the trend, manage risk with precision, and stay alert for breakdowns below key support levels.
Short
by BlackCandleTrader