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USDJPY: How does the recession affect?S&P500 futures have experienced some losses in Europe, indicating a cautious market sentiment. The ongoing second-quarter result season is expected to pose challenges for US equities. Investors will be closely monitoring the performance of banking and technology stocks as the Federal Reserve's higher interest rates are causing a slowdown in economic activities. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is making a significant effort to break above the immediate resistance of 100.00. If successful, this move would trigger a short-term recovery and possibly impact the demand for riskier currencies. The yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds have sharply dropped to around 3.78%.
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by Sphyn-Trader
8
USDJPY Forecast: Insights for the New Week & Follow-Up AnalysisThe Japanese authorities are facing mounting pressure as the yen continues to weaken due to market expectations of ultra-low interest rates maintained by the Bank of Japan. The yen gained traction in the second half of the previous week. Speculation of government intervention to counter the currency's weakness added further support. Although direct intervention did not occur, we witnessed a pullback from the key 145 level against the dollar, amidst numerous verbal warnings from Japanese officials cautioning against betting against the yen. Despite these developments, the outlook for the yen remains uncertain, especially as the Bank of Japan maintains its commitment to loose monetary policy. Shifting our attention to the U.S. economic landscape, the Labor Department's recent report revealed that June experienced a lower-than-expected increase in new hires, with downward revisions to May's figures. However, the unemployment rate declined to 3.6% in June, and average hourly earnings mirrored the growth seen in May. Amidst the recent market volatility, there is speculation that despite pausing its rate hike cycle last month, the Federal Reserve might resume rate hikes during its upcoming meeting on July 26. USDJPY Technical Analysis (Price Action): This video offers a comprehensive analysis of the current market structure. Our focus centers around the key level of 142.500, which was broken to the downside following a strong bearish move. As price action remains within this zone, it becomes an area of concern, which could potentially lead to choppy consolidation before a clear direction is established. Market participants will closely watch the key economic indicators from the U.S. docket to gauge sentiment. The video examines potential trading opportunities within this area using trendlines and key levels, with particular emphasis on the significance of the 144.000 level as a potential retest for a continuation of the downtrend. The market's reaction to the range around the 142.500 area at the beginning of the new week will heavily influence the direction of price action throughout the upcoming week. Stay connected to my channel, stay informed by following my updates, and actively engage in the comment section. Together, we'll navigate the dynamic USDJPY market. Wishing you the best of luck as you chart your course in the USDJPY market this week. Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
1
USDJPY: LONG!The USD/JPY pair is showing signs of a cautious market sentiment, with its recovery from the previous day's decline fading around 144.60. This could be attributed to concerns about Japan intervening in the market to protect its currency, as it hovers near its highest levels in eight months. Additionally, fears of a recession signaled by the inversion of US Treasury bond yields are also posing challenges for buyers of USD/JPY. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has stated that he is closely communicating with the US on foreign exchange matters, while the nation's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, is engaging with various countries including the US on currency issues. Furthermore, the inversion between the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields has reached its highest level since 1981, sparking renewed worries of a recession. This is due to expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark borrowing rates to control inflation. The two-year Treasury bond yields have dropped to 4.85%, while the 10-year counterpart fell to 3.78%. It is important to note that both benchmark yields ended Monday's trading at approximately 4.93% and 3.86% respectively.
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by Sphyn-Trader
6
Japan Yen's Strengthen Secure a True Low Volatile HedgeAs the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy and inflation rates continue to drop, the Japan Yen has steadily strengthened. This trend presents a unique chance to diversify your trading positions and capitalize on Yen's increasing value. By incorporating the Yen into your portfolio, you can potentially shield yourself from market volatility and enhance your risk management strategies. Why choose the Japanese Yen, you may ask? Well, let me share a few compelling reasons: 1. A Safe Haven Currency: Historically, the Yen has been considered a haven currency during economic uncertainty. It's stability and low volatility make it an attractive option for traders seeking a reliable hedge against market fluctuations. 2. Economic solid Fundamentals: Japan boasts a robust and resilient economy supported by technological advancements, a skilled workforce, and a commitment to innovation. These factors contribute to the Yen's strength and make it an appealing choice for traders seeking stability. 3. Diverse Trading Opportunities: The Japan Yen offers many trading opportunities across various currency pairs. Whether you prefer significant pairs like USD/JPY or exotic pairs like EUR/JPY, the Yen's liquidity, and popularity ensure ample chances to profit. Now, it's time for action! Don't miss out on leveraging the Japan Yen's strengthening trend. Here's what you can do to seize this opportunity: 1. Evaluate Your Portfolio: Assess your current trading positions and identify areas where the inclusion of the Japan Yen could enhance your risk management and diversification strategies. 2. Stay Informed: Keep a close eye on market indicators, economic news, and central bank policies that may impact the Yen's value. This knowledge will help you make informed trading decisions and maximize your potential profits. 3. Collaborate and Learn: Engage with fellow traders, attend webinars and seminars to gain insights and exchange ideas about trading the Japanese Yen. Sharing knowledge and experiences can be invaluable in refining your strategies. Remember, the forex market is ever-evolving, and adapting to new trends is crucial for success. Adding the Japan Yen to your trading arsenal can unlock a true low-volatile hedge and amplify your gains.
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by bryandowningqln
2
USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold? USDJPY – What's the intervention threshold? In September of last year, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) made a move in the market to strengthen its currency when it reached 145 against the USD, marking the first such intervention since 1998. This action was taken following the BOJ's decision to maintain an extremely accommodative policy (a policy that is yet to change still). The BOJ intervened once more in October when the yen further plummeted to its lowest level in 32 years, reaching 151.94 against the dollar. At present, investors hold a substantial short position in the yen, valued at $9.793 billion, representing the largest such position in the USDJPY since May 2022. This value has nearly doubled in just the past three months. Notably, former Japanese Vice Finance Minister Eisuke Sakakibara has suggested that the USDJPY could reach 160 before the BOJ intervenes once again. However, the USDJPY has recently built a bit of a buffer between itself and whatever the intervention threshold is for the BoJ. Over the past two trading days, the US dollar has weakened, largely due to remarks made by Federal Reserve officials. These statements have strengthened the belief that the US central bank is nearing the end of its tightening phase. It is widely anticipated that Fed policymakers will implement a rate increase during their upcoming meeting this month, which would set the policy rate range at 5.25% to 5.50%. However, the timing of any subsequent rate hikes remains uncertain. There are questions whether they will raise rates again in September, delay until November, or maintain the current stance and allow inflation to naturally subside over time. Consequently, the US dollar has experienced a decline against the yen, reaching a low of 141.32 yen, the lowest level observed since June 21. Currently, it is down 0.5% at 141.328. This drop follows a decrease of nearly 1.3% seen last Friday when the US nonfarm payrolls for June fell short of market expectations at 209,000.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY BEARISH CONTINUATIONInvestor fears of Japanese intervention, rising borrowing costs, and US-China trade conflicts boost demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY). The USD/JPY pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) remains weak. The US ISM Services PMI indicates a slowdown in inflation, which suggests a less hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the market has already priced in a 25 basis points interest rate increase. The US government bond yields remain high, supporting the USD. The rate differential between the US and Japan, along with the Bank of Japan's negative interest-rate policy, creates opportunities to buy the USD/JPY pair on dips. The upcoming release of US employment data will influence the Fed's policy outlook and USD demand. Weekly losses are expected for the USD/JPY pair. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
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by legacyFXofficial
1
USDJPY | H1 | UpdateUSDJPY update, looking at USDJPY now based on my initial analysis we can see that the USDJPY tanked as per the initial forecast, there was some volatility during the course of the week due to fundamental events surrounding the USD which also acted as a catalyst towards increasing the overall momentum as we would’ve noticed with today’s NFP announcement. But looking back we can take note that USDJPY created a short term trading range between 144.19x and 144.68x before breaking out of our minor support level at 144.19x then came back to retest that level and confirm it as our new resistance after the announcement of the US ADP Employment Change yesterday before tumbling further down. Today’s NFP announcement acted as a further catalyst pushing USDJPY to break through our initial target and support at 142.8xx & 142.6xx now we’re looking forward to it pushing further down to 141.2xx
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by mosa_moshka
USDJPY Forecast: Insights for the New Week & Follow-Up AnalysisThe USDJPY has experienced a depreciation of over 9% against the yen in the current year. Last Friday, the Japanese currency hit a low of 145.07 per dollar in early Asia trade, the lowest it had been in over seven months. However, it stabilized at 144.30 later on Friday following statements from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. Suzuki emphasized that Japan would take appropriate measures if the yen weakened excessively, cautioning against investors selling the currency too aggressively. This level, 145 to the dollar, has historically made speculators wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities, as demonstrated last September when authorities intervened in the markets to support the currency for the first time in 24 years. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been closely monitoring various economic aspects such as the labor market and energy-induced inflation as it prepares for its meeting on July 26 to decide on interest rates. The Fed's decision-making process is influenced by two crucial data points in the U.S.: the first quarter GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. These indicators will help determine whether the central bank will proceed with rate hikes in the coming weeks or maintain the current pause in monetary tightening, which was decided on June 14. According to the Commerce Department, the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter of this year, providing some relief to the Fed and indicating that previous rate hikes did not significantly impede economic growth. However, inflation remains a concern, with a slowdown in the overall trend but still at relatively high levels. Next Friday, the US will release the June official employment report. The market consensus is for an increase of 200K in payrolls. Considering these factors, market expectations lean towards the Fed raising lending rates by another quarter percentage point on July 26, reaching a peak of 5.25%. USDJPY Technical Analysis (Price Action): This video provides an extensive analysis of the current market structure. The focus is on the key level of 145.000, which played a crucial role in the Bank of Japan's intervention last September. With price action returning to this zone, it becomes a point of concern, acting as either key support or resistance depending on how market participants react in the upcoming week. The video explores potential trading opportunities in this area using trendlines and key levels, highlighting the significance of the 144.200 level as a recent support line, particularly observed on Friday. The market's response to the range between 144.200 and 145.000 at the beginning of the new week will greatly influence the direction of price action in the upcoming week. Stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section to stay informed about further technical developments in the USDJPY market. I wish you the best of luck as you navigate the USDJPY market this week. Disclaimer: Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy. It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment. I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
by darcsherry
1
GBPJPY Sell Idea ??? A detailed Technical and Pictorial AnalysisHello Traders !!! Today, we will delve into the topic of JPY buying, exploring it from both fundamental and technical perspectives. It has come to our attention that many traders, excluding large investors and major players in the Forex market, are perplexed by the significant selling pressure on JPY. The answer to this question is rather straightforward: the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is not providing substantial support to JPY. When compared to other central banks, the BoJ fails to offer enticing incentives to investors. If this trend continues in the future, it will undoubtedly inflict further damage upon the value of JPY. Technical Analysis GBPJPY is currently displaying a strong uptrend from a technical standpoint, and there is optimism that it will easily reach targets of 190 and 196. However, caution is warranted at these key levels, as indicators in higher timeframes indicate significant overbought conditions. Furthermore, it is highly probable that JPY intervention will occur at these crucial levels, with a stronger connection to the USDJPY pair. Therefore, it is crucial to closely monitor the levels of USDJPY. If USDJPY surpasses the 150-152 range, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will undoubtedly intervene in the Forex market. Hence, those interested in trading GBPJPY must also pay close attention to the key levels of USDJPY. Below I am mentioning some levels to trade GBPJPY. First Trade Setup : Sell level: 189.5-190.5 stop loss: 191.950 Take profit: 187.650 Second Trade Setup : Sell level: 195-196.2 stop loss: 197.57 Take profit: 192.240 Third Trade Setup : Sell level: 199.65-200.87 stop loss: 201.98 Take profit: 196.7, 192.87, 188.10 Long trade Setup : open long position from 190 and 196 zone stop loss: 210.500 take profit : 181.57 Fundamental Analysis : When discussing fundamentals, it is notable that all central banks are adopting strict monetary policies and raising interest rates in response to inflationary pressures. As inflation continues to surge, these banks are implementing robust measures to maintain it within acceptable bounds. However, in stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is displaying a lack of action when compared to its counterparts and maintaining an accommodative monetary stance. This behavior from the BoJ is detrimental to the value of JPY. Therefore, it is advisable to trade JPY pairs cautiously, particularly at key levels, as the BoJ has been repeatedly issuing verbal warnings regarding potential intervention. Now, let us analyze the possibility of intervention. Analyzing the Possibility of Intervention The probability of intervention is widely debated among experts, who argue that concerns regarding intervention are currently unsubstantiated. According to their analysis, Tokyo is expected to limit its actions to verbal warnings this year. Several points support this perspective: Costly nature of intervention: Japan intervened in the market last year to strengthen the yen, marking the first intervention since 1998. In previous instances, authorities had intervened to prevent the rise of the JPY, which could harm the export-oriented economy. The process of strengthening the yen through intervention is complex and expensive. To increase the exchange rate, the Ministry of Finance issues short-term bills, raising the cost of the currency, which are then sold to weaken the JPY. On the other hand, weakening the yen requires using foreign exchange reserves to exchange dollars for yen. Continuously buying currency to prevent its decline would deplete Japan's monetary reserves. Unlike selling off JPY, where Tokyo can essentially create an unlimited supply of yen, there are limitations to buying back the currency. Approximately 6.35 trillion yen (around $43 billion) was spent on supporting the yen last year. Considering this, it is unlikely that the authorities will engage in large-scale intervention this year and may instead hope for a minor and temporary retreat in the USD/JPY pair. Absence of consumer pressure: Throughout history, the Japanese government has never chosen to intervene to strengthen the yen during periods of low public dissatisfaction. A weak currency generally leads to an increase in the cost of living, causing discontent among consumers. This was observed in Japan towards the end of the previous year when fuel and commodity prices reached record highs, and the depreciation of the yen accelerated, negatively impacting local purchasing power. Consequently, public outrage prompted the government to take action. Currently, although inflation in the country remains above the target of 2%, the effects of high energy prices have diminished, resulting in significantly lower levels of public dissatisfaction. Based on this, it can be inferred that Tokyo lacks compelling reasons to initiate intervention at present. Softer tone of warnings: In recent days, the Japanese government has intensified its warnings of potential intervention. However, it is notable that the tone of these warnings has not shifted significantly. Japanese officials continue to express concerns about sudden fluctuations in the foreign exchange market while cautioning about possible actions to address excessive yen volatility. In 2022, before implementing actual intervention, the Japanese authorities adopted a much more assertive tone, using phrases such as "deeply concerned" and "decisive steps." Such strong language is absent from their latest statements. Consequently, many analysts perceive the recent warnings by Japanese authorities as mere rhetoric rather than an indication of imminent intervention. what measures BoJ will take to protect further devaluation of the JPY Let's assess the likelihood of the Japanese authorities taking measures to protect their national currency and consider the most realistic scenario for preventing further devaluation of the JPY at this stage. Increased verbal intervention: Since Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential tightening, the yen has experienced a sharp decline against the dollar. Japanese officials have responded by issuing daily warnings to speculators who try to profit from disparities in monetary policies between the Fed and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) by trading the USD/JPY pair. Given that the fundamental factors influencing the yen are unlikely to change in the near future, it is expected that traders will continue actively selling the Japanese currency. If the decline of the JPY accelerates, Tokyo may escalate its warnings, promising decisive action against speculative movements. Many experts view this scenario as the most likely one. Atsushi Takeda, an economist from the Itochu Research Institute, stated, "The yen's depreciation is not as significant as last year, as the United States approaches the peak of interest rates. There will likely be one or two more rate hikes. Therefore, we do not anticipate strong JPY volatility leading to further depreciation at this stage." Analysts believe that the Japanese government is primarily focused on managing the pace of currency depreciation rather than targeting a specific exchange rate. Therefore, it is expected that Tokyo will continue with verbal intervention as the USD/JPY pair approaches the 145 level, but it is unlikely to engage in actual market intervention if speculators exceed that threshold. Implementation of intervention: Last year, the Japanese government intervened in the market twice: in September when the yen approached 146 against the dollar, and in October when USD/JPY reached a 32-year high at 152. In 2022, Japan spent $65 billion on direct purchases of JPY. Implementing a new intervention would also incur significant costs for Tokyo, as the authorities would need to utilize the country's foreign exchange reserves to sell dollars. Taro Kimura, an analyst at Bloomberg Economics, noted, "Businesses and consumers are now more accepting of a weak yen compared to last year. The recent rally in Japanese stocks may also contribute to their positive sentiment." Considering these factors, along with the benefits of a weaker yen for exporters, experts consider the actual implementation of intervention at this stage to be unlikely. Japanese companies with a global presence have long been the major beneficiaries of a depreciated JPY, resulting in increased overseas earnings for firms such as Toyota, which added 1.3 trillion yen to its annual operating profit, and Sony, which experienced a sales increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yen across five key segments. Hideo Kumano, an analyst at the Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute, stated, "We believe the government will only intervene in the market if the yen suddenly falls to 150. Although they did so last year, currency intervention remains a last resort." Hawkish actions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ): Some market participants suggest that the BoJ could halt the yen's decline by adjusting its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Speculation has arisen that the BoJ may make its first hawkish move as early as July. However, Bloomberg analysts believe this expectation is misguided. Toru Fujioka, an economic commentator, shared, "The BoJ has consistently stated that it does not intend to directly curb the yen's depreciation using monetary policy tools, as such actions exceed its mandate and may be seen as currency manipulation." According to Fujioka, the BoJ would only consider adjusting the YCC policy if the bond market experiences significant fluctuations similar to those seen last year, coupled with persistent inflation resulting from wage increases. My Trade Setup First Trade Setup : Sell level: 189.5-190.5 stop loss: 191.950 Take profit: 187.650 Second Trade Setup : Sell level: 195-196.2 stop loss: 197.57 Take profit: 192.240 Third Trade Setup : Sell level: 199.65-200.87 stop loss: 201.98 Take profit: 196.7, 192.87, 188.10 Long trade Setup : open long position from 190 and 196 zone stop loss: 210.500 take profit : 181.57, 170.35
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by AhsanTufail