USDJPY Technical Analysis and Trade Idea
👀👉 The USDJPY pair has been experiencing downward pressure recently. While there may be a potential selling opportunity, it would be prudent to wait for the FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve rate cut announcement later today before making any trading decisions.
If the data release outcome suggests a weakening US dollar, it could present a favorable opportunity to sell the USD/JPY pair. Conversely, if the data supports USD strength, it might be wise to abandon the trade idea altogether, as taking a counter-trend position could be risky.
Disclaimer: This analysis is based on current market conditions and available information. Forex trading carries significant risk, and market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 📉✅
Usdjpysignals
USDJPY Strong buy opportunity long-term.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 17 2022 High. The recent 6-week correction below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is its technical Bearish Leg in order to price new Higher Low.
The pull-back even broke below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) but recovered as it didn't close a 1W candle below it and now the price action has settled within the 1W MA50 and MA100.
If we do get a 1W candle closing below the MA100, wait for a buy near the bottom of the Channel Up, with the least risky buy being after the 1W MACD makes a Bullish Cross (has confirmed the last 2 major long-term rallies).
If it breaks above the 1W MA50 first though, the 1W MACD will most likely also complete its Bullish Cross earlier, so we will buy nonetheless, even though the reward potential will be less. In either case, our Target is Resistance 1 (as it was on the rally that peaked on the week of November 13 2023) at 161.800.
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USD/JPY: Seeking dips above 144USD bears are getting quite excited at the prospects of a dovish speech from Jerome Powell on Friday. Perhaps a bit too excited. Market pricing has been quite dovish for some time now, so he will really have to crank up the dovish music on Friday to justify the latest surge of USD selling.
USD/JPY fell over -12.5% from the July high to August low, yet formed a higher low above the Dec/Jan lows. We suspect a deeper retracement against that initial drop could be due.
However, momentum is trying to turn lower on the 4-hour chart. Out bias is bullish while prices remain above 144, and will seek dips towards that level. A false break of Monday's low could work nicely (assuming prices pull back that far), in anticipation of a move back towards 150.
UsdJpy could test 157,50 zone (250 pips rise)After an impressive 1000-pip drop in two weeks, USD/JPY reversed precisely from an old resistance level, now support at 152.
At this point, we also see a higher low in place, and bulls seem determined to recover lost ground.
In the overall trend, the 1000-pip drop is merely a correction and even if there will be a new leg down toward the important 150 level, a test of the 157.50 zone is probable.
I remain bullish as long as the 152.80-153.00 zone holds intact.
Buying dips below 154 could be a good strategy with a risk-reward ratio of more than 1:3.
The yen exchange rate jumped because speculators feared interven
An ascending flag pattern appears, showing the recovery of USDJPY when news about the stock market or the recent presidential appointment continues to be good for the US market.
The USD fell to its lowest stage in approximately 2 months, a improvement amplified via way of means of the pointy boom withinside the fee of the yen that triggered turmoil in worldwide foreign money markets withinside the buying and selling consultation on Wednesday and this morning (18 /7).
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, an index of Bloomberg information organization that measures the USD alternate charge instantaneous marketplace, fell via way of means of 0.4% on Wednesday, to its lowest stage when you consider that past due May. This morning, the index persevered persevered to fall further, whilst the yen/USD alternate charge from time to time accelerated to 155.7 yen for 1 USD.
In addition to the downward strain at the USD from the opportunity that americaA Federal Reserve (Fed) can also additionally decrease hobby costs in September, the yen additionally accelerated sharply because of hypothesis withinside the marketplace that Japanese government can preserve to interfere withinside the forex marketplace to assist the home foreign exchange charge.
The yen has accelerated in fee via way of means of approximately 4% when you consider that closing Thursday - the time while Japanese government are stated to have intervened via way of means of promoting overseas foreign money into the marketplace. Japan`s Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) can also additionally have persevered to interfere on Friday.
In addition, the yen additionally accelerated in fee due to the fact an influential Japanese flesh presser referred to as at the BOJ to elevate hobby costs to assist the yen alternate charge, and previous US President Donald Trump issued a caution approximately the devaluation fashion of the yen. yen - a component that allows Japan advantage a higher aggressive role in exports.
Before this recovery, the yen closing week fell to almost 162 yen in line with USD, its lowest stage in 38 years.
Fluctuations withinside the USD/Japanese yen alternate charge appear to have had a robust effect on different USD foreign money pairs - in step with leader strategist Valentin Marinov of Credit Agricole bank.
USDJPY But signal when the 1D MA50 breaks.Last time we looked at the USDJPY pair (May 22, see chart below), it gave us a solid buy signal at the bottom of its Channel Up:
Since then the price got rejected on Resistance 1 (161.950), forming a Diverging Higher Highs trend-line and pulled back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and at the bottom of the (blue) 7-month Channel Up.
Once the price breaks above the 1D MA50 and better yet the 1D RSI breaks above its MA period (yellow), we will have a new buy opportunity at our hands as in the past 4 occasions that has taken place, it was the absolute bullish break-out confirmation.
If it does again, we will buy and target 163.000 (contact with Diverging Higher Highs trend-line).
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USDJPY: One More Bullish Confirmation 🇺🇸🇯🇵
As I predicted yesterday, USDJPY bounced nicely.
Analyzing a price action on a 4H time frame, I spotted
one more bullish pattern.
We can notice a completed double bottom formation
with a confirmed violation of its neckline.
I think that the pair will reach 159.07 soon.
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY tested a key horizontal support cluster
after a massive selloff cause by US CPI report.
I think that the pair is too oversold now.
To buy with a confirmation, wait for a bullish breakout of 158.12
- upper boundary of a tiny horizontal range on an hourly time frame.
A bullish continuation will be expected to 159.0 level then.
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UsdJpy- Don't p..s against the wind!If there has been a clear trend in the past two years, it has been the devaluation of the JPY. Despite some corrections, even very deep ones, the trend has always resumed, leading to new lows for the JPY.
One of these deeper corrections occurred at the end of last year, triggered, as always, by JPY repatriation.
However, as shown on the chart, the beginning of 2024 saw the resumption of the upward move. Only the BoJ intervention at the end of April and beginning of May at the 160 level stopped the ascent.
The chart shows that the pair has been acting very technically since then, with the drop stopping and reversing precisely at the horizontal support that was previously resistance.
Since then, USD/JPY has started making higher lows again and is now trading around 160.
Only time will tell if the BoJ will be determined to defend this level but, in my personal opinion, it is better to look to buy on dips (around 158) rather than sell at this resistance, hoping for another intervention.
USDJPY: Important Bullish Confirmation 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Update for USDJPY.
The pair perfectly violated a resistance line of a horizontal range on a 4H time frame,
after a retest of a key daily support.
I think that the pair will keep growing today.
Next goal - 157.5
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USDJPY Channel Up aiming higher.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up since the December 28 2023 market bottom and has started the new Bullish Leg on the May 03 2023 bounce (Higher Low) on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The previous two Bullish Legs rose on average by +8.00%, so we expect a similar development. As a result we are bullish, targeting 163.000.
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Timing the BOJ's next intervention? We have seen 2 interventions from the BOJ over the past 2 weeks.
The first came when the USDJPY hit between 158.000 and 160.000 and the second when it hit almost 158.000.
With the BOJ warning that it is ready and willing to step in again, how smart is it to try to catch the ride down if or when the BOJ steps in again?
Finance Minister Shunich Suzuki reiterated the authorities' readiness to counter excessive foreign exchange fluctuations.
At the same time, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed intent to assess yen movements' impact on inflation for guiding policy decisions. "Foreign exchange rates make a significant impact on the economy and inflation,” Ueda underscored in response to questions in parliament yesterday. But this is perhaps a slightly different story, but still, something for traders to consider.
Last week, BOJ data suggested it had spent $60 billion to defend the yen.
But all this has done, according to some analysts, is buy the Japanese authorities time, with the USDJPY steadily climbing back to intervention levels (given the substantial interest rate difference between Japan and the US).
But can we expect the BOJ to intervene again and again?
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasized interventions should be infrequent and ideally coordinated with the broader central banking community, or at least signaled in advance. So, the BOJ will be wary of its international reputation too.
USDJPY: Time For Pullback?! 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY looks quite oversold after a test of an intraday horizontal support.
After a false violation of the underlined structure, the price started to grow
and broke a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
We may expect a pullback today, at least to 153.7 level
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usdjpyUSD/JPY is the forex ticker that shows the value of the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. It tells traders how many Yen are needed to buy a US Dollar. The Dollar-Yen is one of the most traded forex pairs - second only to EUR/USD - and is a benchmark for Asian economic health and even the global economy. View the live Dollar-Yen rate with the USD/JPY chart and improve your technical and fundamental analysis with the latest USD/JPY forecast, news and analysis.
USDJPY Top of Channel Up. Sell signal.The USDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the July 14 2023 Low on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Currently it is about to exhaust the 2nd Bullish Leg of this Channel as it approaches its top (Higher Highs trend-line). It begun with a Low on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and then a Higher Low on the 1D MA200.
With the 1D RSI overbought for the first time since July 05 2023, we are turning bearish on USDJPY after a long time but only for the short-term. Our target is 146.500 (Support 1).
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USDJPY Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe USDJPY currency pair has recently exhibited a bullish trend. However, it has been consolidating sideways for an extended period, lacking a clear directional bias. In our video analysis, we explore a couple of scenarios and provide detailed insights regarding price action considerations. Notably, we look for heightened volatility as liquidity is tested both above and below the current range. We anticipate a trend to emerge at some point. Currently, we are examining a 15-minute chart for potential trade opportunities, as discussed in the video. As always, this information is strictly for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
USDJPY: Correction Continues 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Update for USDJPY.
As I predicted earlier, the market nicely respected an underlined blue resistance
and the price nicely dropped from that on Friday.
Analysing a 4H time frame today, I spotted one more bearish confirmation
- a breakout of a support line of a rising parallel channel.
I expect a bearish continuation to 150.55
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UsdJpy broke down strongly. 145 zone next?As I anticipated and drew attention to two weeks ago, FX:USDJPY peaked above 150 and, after several days of distribution, experienced a significant breakdown yesterday below the 149 support level.
At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 148, and I anticipate further downside movement. The target zone is around 145, and the recommended strategy is to sell rallies.
USDJPY Bullish for the rest of the year. Sell in 2025.This time we view the USDJPY pair from a very long-term perspective as there has been much confusion lately over its trend and we want to put things into context. As you can see on the 1M time-frame, the price is getting out of a consolidation phase (blue ellipse) that has been lasting for a little more than a year. The rally since the January 2021 bottom has been enormous but this is not the first time that the pair is pulling out something similar.
Since the April 1995 bottom, there have been another 2 such rallies (Nov 1995 - Aug 1998 and October 2011 - June 2015) of +85% and +66.75% respectively. The first peaked marginally below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension while the second marginally above it.
This indicates that the pair still has considerable room to extend this rally to and the confirmation is that it ust got out of the blue consolidation phase. The previous two give us a Sell Zone within 171.630 - 190.500. As a result, we will stay bullish on USDJPY probably until the end of the year and start selling in 2025 after the price enters the Sell Zone.
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is trading in a bullish trend.
After the price set a new higher high, we see quite an extended consolidation
within a horizontal range.
150.9 is the resistance of the range.
If the market breaks and closes above that on a daily,
we can anticipate a trend-following movement.
Next resistance will be 151.6
Alternatively, a bearish breakout of the support of the range
may trigger a bearish continuation.
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