USDJPY Best sell entry but RSI on Bullish DivergenceThe USDJPY pair has been trading within an extremely well structured Channel Down since the November 21 2022 High. Every Lower Lows since then has been very symmetrical on approximately a -6.05% drop from the Lower High. With the price currently on the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down, this is technically the most optimal level to sell. A -6.05% drop from the Lower High, gives us a 123.315 price target.
We must be careful however, especially ahead of the Fed Rate Decision, as the 1D RIS hasn been trading within a Channel Up, while the price is on a Channel Down, signalling a Bearish Divergence. A break above the Channel Up, and more importantly the last Lower High can push the price to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term and if broken, then the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on the medium-term.
The long-term bearish trend shouldn't be affected by this so in that case we will be looking for the safest short entry on the top. Below you can see our long-term cheat-sheet on USDJPY:
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Usdjpysignals
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsFollowing our previous analysis on the USDJPY where it was possible to scoop over 500 pips profit (see link below for reference purposes); price action is at a critical juncture at the moment as it oscillates around the 128.000 level. The Greenback weakens in the wake of the CPI and the Japanese Yen continues to soar ahead of the BoJ monetary policy and interest rate decision this week. Despite the US Dollar slipping to its lowest level since June 2022; there is still a long-term bullish momentum from a higher time frame's perspective (daily and weekly). Following Thursday's data showing that U.S. CPI inflation eased in December 2022, could this be a sign to anticipate a reversal pattern in the coming week or events from the BoJ will send a new wave of sell-offs in this market?
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsThis is a follow-up video to last week's analysis on the USDJPY which scooped over 850 pips in profit to start the year on a profitable note (see link below for reference purposes). The US Dollar started the year on a positive note as it climbed up to test the 135.000 level before selling pressure resumed following the NFP release hereby relinquishing some of its gains to close the week at the 132.000 level. In this video, we looked at the current structure from a technical standpoint and identified the 132.000 level as a platform to look out for trading opportunities in the coming week(s).
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week/yearAsian currencies witnessed a positive start to the new year as investors bet on slower interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar. Despite a dull start to the year, It is worth noting that the first NFP for the year is a high-impact macroeconomic event that has a tendency to bring some liquidity into the market and we are likely going to see the reflection of this anticipation on the chart in price action. In this video, we looked at the chart from a technical standpoint and deduced the importance of the 131.000 level which will be a determinant of price movement in the nearest future.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY
- As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for USD was slightly on the DOWN SIDE. The main reason for that is that the dollar is starting to weaken quite a bit. The dollar has strengthened after the December FOMC. All MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going down slightly due to the OFF of MARKET RISK.
With the arrival of FED UPDATES POSITIVE USD BUY again. So JPY went down automatically in previous days. But the UPDATES of BANK OF JAPAN are quite
- There is definitely a high possibility that USDJPY will go UP a bit more and move to 133.67 LEVEL. Anyway, USDJPY price can go down to 126.46 LEVEL after that. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsDespite missing out on the initial bearish move on Tuesday, we were still able to close the week on a profitable note with about 700 pips in total (see link below for reference purposes). The outcome from last week indicates that the U.S. dollar continues to plunge hereby handing back some of the previous session’s gains as participants attempt to gauge the Federal Reserve’s likely tightening path in the new year. And with BoJ's governor's speech coming up early in the new week, there might be fresh hopes for the US Dollar. In this video, we identified the 131.000 level as a critical point that has a memory for buying power. So, in the new week, we shall be using this zone as a yardstick for trading opportunities.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsFollowing a rollercoaster🎢 of ups and downs last week, we were able to close the week with over 500pips in profit (see the link below for reference purposes). Results from Friday's data revealed that Japanese manufacturing activity contracted more than expected in December thereby weakening demand and further denting productive capacity. How will this development reflect on the charts? In this video, we looked at the charts from a technical standpoint and identified a structure within the 138 and 135 zones for trading opportunities in the new week.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsThis is a follow-up video to my previous analysis on the USDJPY and on the back of a profitable week on this pair (see link below for reference purposes), we are at equilibrium as the current structure has both a strong bullish and bearish expectation at the same time. The U.S. dollar showed traces of weakness on Friday as fears that the U.S. economy was heading toward recession mounted, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. In this regard, I was able to share in this video how we can position ourselves to take advantage of any of these potential opportunities during the coming week(s).
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY
- As of last day, the MARKET SENTIMENT for EUR was slightly UP SIDE. The main reason for that is that the dollar is starting to weaken quite a bit. The dollar has strengthened after the December FOMC. All MARKETS including STOCKS and COMMODITIES are going down slightly due to the OFF of MARKET RISK.
With the arrival of FED UPDATES POSITIVE USD BUY again. So JPY went down automatically in previous days. But the UPDATES of BANK OF JAPAN are quite
- There is definitely a high chance that USDJPY will go UP a bit more and move to 142.35 LEVEL. Anyway, USDJPY price can go down to 130.00 LEVEL after that. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsThe U.S. dollar continue waning as it edged lower during the course of last week's trading and following the positive NFP on Friday, there was a stall as we started witnessing a consolidation phase around the key level at 135.000. In this video, we looked at the charts from a technical standpoint where we shall remain patient to see what price action will transition into for signals and confirmations.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, and risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY The only chart you'll need for the next 10 years!This is the USDJPY pair on the 1M chart. The October rejection and subsequent deep red November may have come as a surprise to many but not if they've had been paying attention to this multi-decade chart that clearly shows the rejection was on a major, historic Resistance cluster.
Before we begin, note that the October mega rejection was something we called for and clearly showed on our October 15 analysis, even on the short-term:
Back to the multi-decade chart, as you see, this cheat-sheet shows all of USDJPY's major pressure points/ zones through the years that act either as Resistance or Support levels depending on the trend.
With regards to October's rejection, we clearly see that this was made on a Lower Highs trend-line that was holding since December 1975, while the 1M RSI hit the top of a Channel Up that started after the October 1978 Low! On a large multi-year scale, there couldn't have been a better sell signal than that on USDJPY.
As for the targets? The next pressure level in line is the 120.500 Pivot, where the price can make contact with the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). A full-year rebound or consolidation after achieving that long-term target, can finally push for a test of the Upper Support Zone that is basically supporting USDJPY since January 2014.
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USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsThe U.S. dollar edged lower to post a weekly loss on dovish projection from the Federal Reserve. From a technical standpoint, it is worth noting that the price has been caught within a support and resistance (142.500 and 138.000) in the last two weeks to emphasize the indecision in the market. The coming week is laced with major market-moving economic releases, both from the US and Japan; the fundamental backdrop from these events will be anticipated by participants in this market as the price remains within the identified channel which also shares a confluence with the bullish trendline on the daily timeframe hence warrants some detailed understanding of the current structure before positioning ourselves for any trading opportunity.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, and risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY | Perspective for the new week | follow-up detailsUSDJPY continues to look for a support level as the price plunges to close the week at approximately a 5% loss for the Greenback. Attention will remain on the Retail Sales event as participants in this market will anticipate how price action will react to this high-impact event. From a technical standpoint, the price is at a critical level as it tests the trendline that has been guiding bullish momentum since the beginning of the year. So, patience is needed at beginning of the week as we need to see how price relates to this area before making an informed decision.
Disclaimer:
Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility.
You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment.
I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
USDJPY below a level that was a Support since September 2021!The USDJPY pair made a strong rejected shortly after our previous analysis where we called for a strong sell at the top of the (now) 6-month Bullish Megaphone pattern:
Following a fake-out just above the Megaphone, the rejection was much stronger and so far much longer that any of the previous ones in 2022. The price not only broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but also the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which has been the long-term Support and unbroken since September 23 2021 and where the previous Megaphone Higher Low was made (August 02 2022).
Right now the 1D MA100 is being tested as a Resistance, which the price has failed to break on 4 straight days. The more it fails, the more likely it is to test the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone and if broken, target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). A closing above the 1D MA100 however, targets the 1D MA50 but as with early August, this still doesn't restore the uptrend. The pair typically needs a clear closing above the 1D MA50 to do so, in which case we can expect at least the 0.618 Fib to be tested if not the previous High.
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UsdJpy to resume its uptrend?Since the beginning of March, following the important 115 zone break, UsdJpy entered a very strong up trend with the pair gaining more than 3500 pips, which is translated into more than 30%, which is immense for a pair like UsdJpy.
After two BoJ interventions, one at the 145 zone and the second marking the 152 top, the pair finally cooled down and corrected strongly.
However, the overall trend remains bullish and I have no reason to think that this will change.
At this moment the pair is trading exactly in a strong confluence support given by the trend line, the horizontal level, and the 140 figure, and a resumption to the upside is probable.
My target for this rise is in the 145 zone, technical resistance, and the level for the first BoJ intervention.