Usdjpytradeplan
As A Neutral Trader, What Would I Do For USDJPY?This USDJPY rally has been incredible. Thousand pips since March 2022. Anyway if I have NO position and what would I do this market?
1. If the market keeps rallying I would try to short whenever market near the upper chanel of my paralel trend chanel.
2. Let's say the market reverse downward I am going to look for confirmation to enter sell.
Personally the rally has been huge so I will not prefer to buy. Just wait for the right moment to sell either whenever market up near the upper chanel of my paralel chanel or if the market comes down I will wait for the confirmation to enter short USDJPY.
USD/JPY may drop more after breaking below 114.40Japanese yen became strong enough against the USD after the CPI report was released. Though the price index increased, it seemed not manageable, and the USD fell apart against all the major pairs.
USD/JPY is hovering nearly the trendline support zone. 114.40/35 is immediate and trendline support; after breaking below 114.40/35 USD/JPY may drop more nearly 113.32 price zone this week.
Today the USA labor market will release PPI and unemployment claims. I hope these reports are not going to help the USD. However, if these reports print positive USD/JPY, it can test the descending trendline area nearly at the 115.05/115.15 price zone.
But as long as USD/JPY is below the descending trendline, I mean 115.10 price zone, it still has a chance to drop more. So the sell order will be invalid if only USD?JPY breaks and is stable above the 115.10 price zone. Otherwise, we will continue our sell trade from nearly 115.00 or break below the 114.40 price zone.
USD/JPY analysis ahead of the US inflation reportsUSD/JPY bounced off the one-week top yesterday and stayed firmer around its intraday high of late. This week, we've seen another missile test from North Korea, which may lead to further sanctions being put in place by the US.
We also saw Fed Chair Powell testify at a hearing about economics and potential new measures to fight Omicron (a related virus). All this news provides a lot of focus on covid variants. That helped JPY to dominate other significant currencies. As a result, JPY became strong against most of the major currencies.
USD/JPY consolidated the recent losses around 115.30, rising for the first time four days during early Tuesday. The risk barometer pair portrays the market's cautious optimism amid recently positive comments from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and covid updates. However, inflation fears ahead of Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data challenge the USD/JPY bulls.
The market's sentiment towards the US FED members remains hawkish, with worries around potential economic issues and a cure for the coronavirus- its variants.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made hawkish comments in prepared remarks this morning, which could be seen as a significant favor to positive risk-on moods.
Additionally, words from Merck's official saying, "Expect Molnupiravir mechanism to work against omicron any covid variant," could also be seen as positive for risk appetite.
However, what should note that market players remain cautious ahead of today's testimony from Fed Chair Powell and Wednesday's US inflation data.
If the US cannot manage to keep their in under control, USD/JPY may drop and test nearly 112.00
From the present rate, 115.65 is the immediate resistance, and swing high is the 116.35 price zone.
Technical Analysis
Last week USD/JPY tested 116.35 zones; what was the trendline resistance. Technically it was supposed to drop from that level. But Omicron and other issues help to drop more than 100+ pips.
From the present rate, immediate support is identified at the 114.70 price zone. So, I am expecting USD/JPY may test the 114.70 price zone very soon.
Then investors will wait for the inflation reports. If the US inflation reports print positive, USD/JPY may bounce back to the swing high 116.35 area or immediate resistance 115.65 area.
On the other hand, if the US inflation reports drop and Omicron spreads more than expected, USD/JPY has one more chance to test the 112.00 price zone this week.
USDJPY Bearish Potential SetupSalam and hi my name is Khalid Hamid. USD Index is showing a reversal, thus USD pairs might go down too (including USDJPY).
Early sign is there but still need to wait for a STRONG BREAKOUT signal to the downside.
Watch the video to understand. ;-)
Tomorrow is NFP and few other high impact data release so please be careful with your trades.
Good luck and happy trading everyone.
KHALID HAMID, Malaysia
(Buy Stops) USDJPY Technical Analysis for April 16, 2018Hello Traders,
My focus pair today is USDJPY and while the Yen seems to be gaining ground as the chart shows, I expect prices to possibly rebound and edge higher in the coming days. These are my reasons. In the weekly chart, stochastics are turning from deep the oversold territory and we have that clear buy signals and higher highs which begun from late March 2018.
What’s interesting though is this minor resistance at last year’s lows and this is why I really think that this week’s price action could possibly shape the short to medium term trend of this pair. With this resistance, last year’s lows or support will effectively become a resistance zone if it succeeds in rebuffing further bull pressure.
When we zoom in to the 4HR chart, prices are retesting a key support line. Even though our technical indicators are mixed, we should practice patience and wait until there is a stochastic buy signal or a double bar reversal pattern prints at this level. On the flip side, conservative traders can wait for a close above last week’s highs at around 107.80 before initiating longs.
Because of this projection, my USDJPY trade plan would be as follows:
Buy Stop: 107.80
Stop Loss: 107
Take Profit: 112 but ideally at 115
Let me know what you think. Have a good trading day!!
First published at Forex.Today by Dalmas Ngetich