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Yen rises sharply, Tokyo Core CPI nextThe Japanese yen has edged higher on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.57, up 0.16% on the day. Tokyo Core CPI surprised on the downside in June, falling to 3.1% y/y. This was down sharply from the 3.6% gain in May and below the market estimate of 3.3%. This was the the first slowdown in Tokyo core inflation since February. The decline was largely driven by a renewal of fuel subsidies and a reduction in water charges. Despite the drop, core inflation remains well above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, maintaining expectations for another rate hike in the second half of the year. BoJ Governor Ueda has signaled that the Bank will raise rates if it is confident that wage growth is sustained, which is critical to maintaining inflation at the 2% target. However, this week's BOJ Summary of Opinions showed that some members are more dovish, given global trade tensions and the bumpy US-Japan trade talks. Japan has said it will not agree to US tariffs of 25% on Japanese cars, and six rounds of talks in the past two months have failed to produce a deal. The Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, accelerated in May and was higher than expected. The index rose 2.7% y/y up from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May and above the consensus of 2.6%. Monthly, the index rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% which was also the consensus. This was a three-month high and will boost the case for the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the July meeting. USD/JPY faces resistance at 144.49 and 144.64 144.31 and 144.16 are the next support levels
by OANDA
xauusd whats next? **Gold Prices Surge Amid Resilient Market Sentiment** Gold prices have surged once again, driven by robust buying activity as market participants capitalized on recent dips. As of Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) has climbed to $2,920, recovering sharply from a brief decline the previous day. This rally comes despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, including persistent U.S. inflation concerns and discussions of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. ### **Key Drivers of Gold’s Rally** 1️⃣ **Inflation and the Fed:** Gold’s momentum follows a surprising January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed hotter-than-expected inflation. While the data initially spurred concerns about prolonged Federal Reserve tightening, market participants remain confident in gold's safe-haven status. Traders seem unfazed by rising U.S. Treasury yields and the Fed’s commitment to elevated interest rates, focusing instead on gold’s resilience amid broader uncertainties. 2️⃣ **Geopolitical Tensions:** Despite reports of peace talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin concerning the Ukraine conflict, gold's bullish trajectory remains intact. Investors appear cautious, viewing the negotiations as fraught with uncertainty. While a peace deal could ease geopolitical tensions and trigger risk-on sentiment, the market’s current preference for safety has sustained gold’s appeal. 3️⃣ **Weaker Dollar Boosting Gold:** The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) softened amid optimism surrounding potential peace talks, alongside currency market volatility. A weaker dollar traditionally supports gold, as the two are inversely correlated, further bolstering the metal’s recent gains. ### **Market Dynamics: Yields and Gold Diverge** Interestingly, gold’s rally has coincided with rising U.S. Treasury yields—a divergence from historical trends. Typically, higher yields weigh on gold due to its non-yielding nature. However, this time, gold’s safe-haven allure amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty appears to be overriding these dynamics. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 64.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged through June 2025, up from 50.3% before the January CPI release. This shift reflects expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, which could paradoxically support gold as inflation concerns persist. ### **Technical Analysis: Bulls Eyeing Record Highs** Gold maintains a strong bullish bias, with prices supported by the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Currently consolidating within a key buying zone between $2,900 and $2,907, the metal’s upward trajectory remains intact. **Key levels to watch:** - **Immediate Resistance:** $2,918 to $2,920. A successful consolidation above this range could set the stage for a test of $2,942 and potentially a new all-time high at $2,980. - **Support Zone:** Holding above $2,907 will be critical for sustaining bullish momentum. ### **Outlook and Risks** As markets digest the interplay of macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical developments, gold remains a focal point for traders. While optimism around peace talks between Trump and Putin could introduce volatility, persistent uncertainties ensure gold’s safe-haven demand stays robust. **Takeaway for Traders:** Gold’s resilience amidst rising yields, elevated inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty highlights its role as a reliable safe-haven asset. Watch for a breakout above $2,920 for further bullish confirmation, with potential upside targets at $2,942 and beyond. #gold #trading #marketupdate #CPI #Powell
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx
USD/JPY as BOJ rate decision approaches The US federal Reserve is not the only major central bank making an interest rate decision this week. So too, will the nonconformist Bank of Japan (BOJ). In its April policy meeting, the BOJ highlighted upside risks to inflation and indicated readiness to adjust monetary policy, if necessary, although it expects to maintain its current policy for the time being. The BOJ stated that if the outlook for economic activity and price rises materializes, interest rate hikes could be warranted. Key economic reports from Japan prior to this week's interest rate decision include: Japan GDP Growth Rate (final) Japan Economy Watchers Survey Outlook Japan Producer Price Inflation For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. From the daily chart, the USD/JPY perhaps appears slightly bullish. The pair has climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating strong buyer momentum. On Tuesday last week, BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino expressed concerns about the negative impact of a weak yen on the economy. His comments suggest that the BOJ might be preparing for another intervention in the forex markets to support the yen, which would be negative for the USD/JPY pair. The 14-day RSI has recently pulled back, avoiding overbought conditions.
by BlackBull_Markets
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