Usdlong
DXY Retrace to $99Looking for a healthy retrace of DXY. USD strength is overdue, and this month bulls need to step up.
EURUSD Hourly - Simple, could it hold?Double top followed by 0.618 retracement after the break of the "v" point of the tops.
This also coincide with the highest high (opening) of candle seen 2017-04-23
Makes nice structure, the V point together with the opening high, and the 0.618 fibonacci.
Lets see where this bus takes us. Two targets set up.
USD DECISION POINTInverted head and shoulders may form.
Medium to long term, USD is fundamentally bullish based on monetary policy divergence, USD shortage, increasing term premia on US 10Y Treasuries.
XAUUSD - Daily rejectionsMy reasons for entry:
9 daily rejections, not counting the previous top 27/2 makes this case interesting. The inverted hammer after the double top formed tells me that we have a potential fall to the downside to profit from.
GBPUSD - Bearish rotation?A series of lower highs, inside a big triangle / wedge (see daily or even weekly timeframe) we could see a bearish rotation down to the bottom of the wedge.
Coming from a historically strong and significant resistance area (1.2555) I see a potential bearish ride down to 1.2300 and possibly further. While venturing down I'm looking to lock profit after passing 1.2400.
Anything can happen. Feel free to comment your thoughts.
GBP has been interesting the past few months to say the least.
XAUUSD (4H) Potential short opportunityLooking at the 4 hour chart we have found resistance at historically strong support and resistance zone. Price did not manage to close above 1234.00 despite several attempts. Right above us we find a 0.618 fibonacci retracement.
Looking down at the hourly we also see a 2618, a double top (which also can be seen on 4h) followed by a 0.618 retracement after breaking to the downside, passing the "V" point of the double top.
I take this as a first, of two, possible entries to sell. Target 1220.00
Lets see how we do
GBPUSD - After our breather, comes the next dive.We have hit a historically strong and stubborn support & resistance zone, a psychological round number 1.2400, a 0.618 fibonacci retracement of X-A, and our momentum has been weakening - and even broke to the downside.
Now its time to jump on the bear train again! Or at least I am.
Targets are marked on the cart, with a potential zone which we may very likely hit within the next 30 days.
Entered: 1.2392
Elevator, bring us down please.
EURUSD (4h) Short setup, decision point(?)Following up on last weeks successful prognosis ()
I now enter a short position, aiming for 1.0620 with first target at 1.0700.
This is could however be a decision point for entering a strong bullish move , but I use the double top forming at B (see historically strong point at Z) before we make that move upwards.
Tight stop loss on this one, as a break above could trigger the bullish move I just mentioned.
USDJPY LONG: Fib retracementFundamentally USD is still supported.
Today the 61.8% retracement offers a good entry.
US YIELDS AND USD LONGGreat time to scale in to USD longs
Dovish Fed hike won't stop term premia returning to historical norms.
This is bullish for USD and bearish for USTs.
EURUSD (4H) Taking a breather? Two interesting things.We have run into two different things here.
Firstly we have the 1.0700 psychological level where price seems to have found resistance.
Secondly, we have a 61.8% fibonacci retracement of Z to X.
Combined with these two we are currently in overbought condition.
I'm looking to profit from this breather with a rather tight/risky stop loss.
LONG TERM CABLE SHORTMassive head and shoulders pattern on monthly chart.
We may test all time lows at 1.05.
Short AUDUSD babyShort - rejection from 0.76 round number and 38.2% retracement of the down leg.
Fundamentally there is monetary policy divergence between RBA and Fed which supports this trade.
Hedge with AUDJPY longs from current levels.
BUY GOLD TO HEDGE USD LONGSBuy gold at spot.
Add at key levels: 1205, 1180, 1150.
Hedge with shorts on AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD (since these are risk-on trades).
I think this will be the perfect way to play 2017 - long USD, long gold.
What's really driving USD at the moment10 year yields.
2.30% level has been very supportive.
Breakout of the wedge will mean uptrend will continue.
Fundamentally this is supported by higher term premia being demanded, and Chinese flight capital leaving the UST market.
I'm long USD and will add to my positions if 10 year yields really start to move a lot higher.
EURUSD (15min) Short setupBasing this setup on:
Violated support -signal
Violated trendline -signal
Structure resistance - adding to our entry
Trendline resistance - adding to our entry
0.618 fib retracement - adding to our entry
Moderately conservative target, above previous low - Trend continuation
Fundamentals haven't changed - in fact they've got better!Fundamentally, looking at global equities, data from the US, Fedspeak and Yellen's comments, USD should be trading much higher.
Why isn't it?
1) JPY-positive flows before the end of the Japanese fiscal year
2) 'Uncertainty' of the Trump administration
3) Profit taking at 115.00 - including option defending and strong sell interest
However, I view this as an excellent opportunity to get long USD against JPY and EUR - as yield differentials, dollar shortage and border-adjustment tax will likely resume the dollar uptrend.
Furthermore, Kuroda continues to welcome a lower yen. QQE with strong yield curve control continues in Japan.
GBPUSD - Short setupWill the bouncing continue?
We see a clearly defined, triangle-narrowing movement on this pair as we're respecting both structure and trendlines more and more lately. We're heading into a triangle, and price-action seems pretty determined.
IF it continues we could pick up some profit on the way. It might aswell be a trap, with a break to the upside.
I chose to enter, because of above, and we also see a double top, respecting the trendline, and we ALMOST see a 2618 in the 15 minute chart (bearish candle did not close below the lowest low of the V point between the double top) I did however initially base this setup on the hourly.
Risk to reward is good enough for me. No matter the outcome, it will be interesting to follow - will this pair stay determined on its bouncy narrowing route?
GBPUSD (15min) short opportunity with 2618A setup with two targets, triggered by the 0.618 retracement of the double top. And, the retrace also runs into our falling trend line.
First target - retest of previous low.
Second target - above historic support level
Feel free to ask if somethings on your mind, I'm as transparent as can be.
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I do not recommend using my charts and ideas as a signal to enter a trade. These charts are intended for my own personal review.
EURUSD (15min) Structure based - ShortOpportunity to get short with structure + fibo based entry.
We're running into previous support which could act as resistance. Adding to the case we're hitting 0.618 fib. Adding to our defense we also have falling trendline.
Targetting historical support level.
Lets see how we do.
LONG USD AT SPOTNFP reaction has given us a chance to add to USD longs for the medium-term.
Fundamentals haven't changed and are still in play.
Weaker wage growth doesn't change the fact that a structural dollar shortage and monetary policy divergence remains.
EURUSD (15min) Short opportunityWe have a structured based opportunity to get short.
Overbought condition while hitting a clear structure zone which should act as resistance. As a parachute we also have a falling trendline which should protect our stop loss.
Decisive bearish candle acts as my signal to entry.
Target historical support level
