DXY Dollar Index : History in the making , close to 40 year lookWorst national debt in history topping $30 trillion USD.
Pandemic damages still lingering and causing shadow of doubt.
Global tensions of war add and economical sanctions hurt tech companies, import, export and more.
The only shining fundamental light is interest rate hikes. .50 or .75 or 1 percent make very little difference when the economy revolves around overnight crypto jumps of 100% as a daily thing.
Now let's look at the technicals -
Most overbought weekly RSI 14 that is pretty much imaginable, happened only 6 times in the last 38 years - A rating of around 80.
Horizontal resistance around 103-104 stretching all the way back to 1885 that was confirmed 2020, 2017.
Gold is keeping solid ground at the high 1800's with bullish weekly trend-line kept.
Don't fall for spikes, be smart, trade safe.
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Usdlong
USDJPY Weekly ForecastThe Dollar follows the DXY.
With that said: Trade Accordingly.
Remember #KeepItSimple
The Forex market has 3 moves: Up. Down, and Sideways.
The Forex market moves for two reasons: To fill imbalances and liquidity.
The Market makes money in Consolidation.
We make money in the Trends.
The fundamentals all point to a strong Dollar right now with rumors of a 50-75 BPS pump in June I see the $ holding strong!
Never Over leverage.
Have Fun!
GBP/USD - Short Sell Fundamental and Technical Set UpThe British pound continues to come under selling pressure as the UK grapples with high inflation, caused by high energy prices, supply chain issues, and a cost of living crisis forcing consumers to lose confidence in their future economic prospects and drastically cut back on spending.
The UK economy is expected to fall into a recession, whilst a recession in the US is still under debate given the strength in the labor market.
I am looking at taking a short sell position below $1.28 on the exchange rate.
AUDUSD Breakout 18Month LowAUDUSD has just broke a horizontal support level to reach the lowest price since July 2020.
On our currency meter indicator on 12H timeframe USD is the strongest of the 6 currencies at an average 71 RSI, with AUD the weakest of the 6 at an average 28.5 RSI.
USD has strong headwinds with the recent Fed meeting and markets now expecting as many as 5 rate hikes in 2022, bullish USD is a major theme of my Forex trading right now.
AUDUSD has seen a series of lower lows and lower highs and while price movements don't travel in straight lines, in my opinion there's a good probability that this breakout will be significant, and price can travel further down to create a new swing low.
US-DOLLAR really falling after NFPs? I doubt it.Hey tradomaniacs,
chaotic market huh?
To be honest... I think the current move of US-DOLLAR doesn`t make any sense.
I keep it simple and short, otherwise I`d have to break the mold.
The data are mixed but do overall show a slowdown in the economy but at the same time rising inflation.
Non-Farm-Payrolls: 199.000 less jobs than expected and the worst result since december 2020. This clearly shows a cool down in the NFP-Sector and is overall bearish for the US-Dollar.
Unemployment Rate: 3,9% and a positive development considering that previous rate has been at 4,2%. Overall bullish fort he US-Dollar.
Average hourly earnings: 0,6% and way higher compared to the previous month.
This is overall bullish for the US-DOLLAR due to higher inflation.
Average weekly hours: 34,7 and less than expected.
The problem here in my opinion is the fact that earnings per hour soared while less jobs were created. This is a typical sign of inflation and part oft he wage-price-spiral.
Considering that FED has to and will fight inflation as its priority number one after their „transitory-fail“ to gain back reputation Jerome Powell & Co could turn from best friends to fiends for the stockmarket as financial injections probably won`t be an option anymore, whether the economy cools down or not.
This is clearly negative for the overvalued equity-market but not by all means for the US-Dollar.
Simply put: The FEDs in a quandra.
Can`t provide more liquidity due to high inflation to push growth and employment and has to hope everything is going to be fine.
Rising yields do indicate expectations for higher inflation in the market and would offer an alterantive to stocks in the near future (Bonds).
They are also generally good for the bank-sector and obviously not good for tecs due to high costs which are not as easier to finance with higher interest-rates.
But here is a catch.. we know how irrational but faithful the market is... if it turns out the market hopes the FED to ignore their plans and "slow it down" in order to boost the economy again if future results are not as good as expected we might see another rally in stocks and so a falling US-Dollar. This would be more like the less likely scenario in my opinion...I mean Bidens is on Powells tail.
Risk-Off is generally good for the US-DOLLAR as a safe haven. If FED continues as announced and planned the US-Dollar is likely to move up while this move turns out to be a fake.
One of these charts is lying, but I see a higher probabillity of a rising US-Dollar under these circumstances.
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Peace and good trades
Irasor
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Let’s Get Back To The 69 We all know I love triangles and all things related. The decending wedge is like a close cousin and getting back to 69 will be uncomfortable (see fan line levels)
But as we all know the show goes on.
Target date listed as Jan 31, 2022… This would make for a pleasant new year, and most importantly confirm that we are all positioned in what will lead into a “cycle” of elongated proportions.
Confirmation will be revisited once in PR.
DXYHey Traders, in the coming week we are monitoring DXY for a buying opportunity around 96 zone respecting the daily supply and demand zone in combination with the bullish trend. Once we will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
i highly recommend doing US DOLLAR INDEX analysis at the entrance of every trading week if not everyday to trade USD pairs in more professional way. a bullish DXY can result a xxxUSD drop and a bearish DXY can result a xxxUSD Pump
Trade Safe, Joe.
DXY Hey Traders, above is DXY technical analysis, i always recommend DXY analysis prior to trading USD pairs. currently we are watching a couple of zone for a possible bounce. first one around 95.5 and the second one around 94.4. don't forget to be a bit careful especially after fed Chair Powell speech the last night and fears about the new variant, risk for economy and employment and risk for labor market progress.
Trade safe, Joe.
USD/JPY LongOur fundamental bias is tilted to the upside for this pair as the FED is expected to hike rates earlier due to inflation fears in the US economy. The JPY is expected to be pressured due to the BOJ assuring the market that they are not planning to raise rates anytime soon. We structurally expect the pair to complete a WXY in a higher timeframe.
BTCUSD - BTC/USD - Bitcoin/USD - United States DollarExpect to see volatility in the coming weeks followed by a crash
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD BITBAY:BTCUSD BITBAY:BTCUSD PHEMEX:BTCUSD OANDA:BTCUSD BITTREX:BTCUSD FTX:BTCUSD BINANCEUS:BTCUSD FOREXCOM:BTCUSD FX:BTCUSD CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD CAPITALCOM:BTCUSD CURRENCYCOM:BTCUSD TRADESTATION:BTCUSD CEXIO:BTCUSD BITCOKE:BTCUSD OKCOIN:BTCUSD GLOBALPRIME:BTCUSD TIMEX:BTCUSD BITFINEX:BTCUSDSHORTS BITFINEX:BTCUSDLONGS BYBIT:BTCUSDT OKEX:BTCUSD3M OKEX:BTCUSD6M BINANCE:BTCUSDT HUOBI:BTC25M2021 BINANCE:BTCUSDT BITBAY:BTCUSDT HUOBI:BTCUSDT HUOBI:BTC25M2021 KUCOIN:BTCUSDT POLONIEX:BTCUSDT BINGBON:BTCUSDT OKEX:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSDC HITBTC:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDTPERP PHEMEX:BTCUSDT FTX:BTCUSDT
EUR/USD Analysis - Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - SELLAhead of this week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
We look at why the markets are turning hawkish on their expectations for the U.S Central bank to raise rates to deal with the high inflation.
We look at why this will cause EUR/USD to continue its downtrend when we look at U.S Bond Rates relative to European Bond Rates and how the differential drives the direction of the currency pair.
Dollar index in the near futureThe dollar index is approaching a resistance. At the same time, divergences can be seen in the indicators. In case of reacting to this resistance, this index can initially drop to around 93.5 and if it breaks its white support line, it may fall to 92. But if this resistance is broken by the good news, this analysis will be rejected. Technically, there is a high probability of a fall, but for this we have to wait for the news. A lot of news is on the way this week.
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USD Waiting on retest to strengthenTechnical-Wise:
- The DXY has made a considerable bullish move last week thus creating a imbalance.
- I am expecting for USD to weaken and retest any of the blue S&R lines I've plotted on the chart.
Fundamental Wise
- The FOMC meeting will be held tomorrow and would largely affect prices
- The general sentiment is towards hawkish as most expect a tapering to be soon implemented with high CPI numbers. (optimistic economic projections, hints of a taper announcement as soon as next month, etc)
- Closely watch out for the Federal Funds Rate, we may see a major move and volatility based on this news release.
- Failure of projected numbers of expectations may cause USD to drop.