Analysis of USDMXN 10.10.2019The price is below the moving average of 20 MA and MA 200, indicating the downward trend.
MACD is below the zero level.
The oscillator Force Index is below the zero levels.
If the level of support is broken, you shall follow the recommendations below:
• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Short Position
• Entry Level: Short Position 19.4900
• Take Profit Level: 19.3600 (1300 pips)
If the price rebound from support level, you shall follow the recommendations below:
• Timeframe: H4
• Recommendation: Long Position
• Entry Level: Long Position 19.6400
• Take Profit Level: 19.7000 (600 pips)
USDCHF
A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 0.9910
USDJPY
A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 107.30
EURUSD
A possible long position at the breakout of the level 1.1020
GBPUSD
A possible short position in the breakdown of the level 1.2190
USDMXN
USDMXN Fundamental Analysis – October 9th 2019Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for US Dollar trades:
US JOLTS Job Openings: US JOLTS Job Openings for August a predicted at 7.191M. Forex traders can compare this to US JOLTS Job Openings for September which were reported at 7.217M.
US Wholesale Inventories and Trade Sales: US Final Wholesale Inventories for August are predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to previous US Wholesale Inventories for August which increased by 0.4% monthly. US Wholesale Trade Sales for August are predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to US Wholesale Trade Sales for July which increased by 0.3% monthly.
FOMC Minutes: The US Federal Reserve will release minutes from its last meeting today and forex traders will look for any potential change in the wording used which could give insight to future monetary policy adjustments.
Here is the key factor to keep in mind today for Mexican Peso trades:
Mexican CPI: The Mexican CPI for September is predicted to increase by 0.25% monthly and by 2.99% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Mexican CPI for August which was reported flat at 0.00% monthly and which increased by 3.16% annualized. The Mexican Core CPI for September is predicted to increase by 0.29% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the Mexican Core CPI for August which increased by 0.20% monthly. The Mexican Bi-Weekly CPI for the week ending September 30th is predicted to increase by 0.10% monthly and by 2.98% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the Mexican Bi-Weekly CPI for the week ending September 16th which increased by 0.17% monthly and by 2.99% annualized. The Mexican Bi-Weekly Core CPI for the week ending September 30th is predicted to increase by 0.09% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to the Mexican Bi-Weekly Core CPI for the week ending September 16th which increased by 0.19% monthly.
Should price action for the USDMXN remain inside the or breakdown below the 19.5050 to 19.6530 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
Timeframe: D1
Recommendation: Short Position
Entry Level: Short Position @ 19.6050
Take Profit Zone: 19.1900 – 19.3185
Stop Loss Level: 19.7425
Should price action for the USDMXN breakout above 19.6530 the following trade set-up is recommended:
Timeframe: D1
Recommendation: Long Position
Entry Level: Long Position @ 19.7425
Take Profit Zone: 19.9890 – 20.2545
Stop Loss Level: 19.6530
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USDMXN - At reversal zoneExpecting a bearish reversal very soon here.
The higher time frame count suggests that we should see a sharp reversal lower as potential wave 3 or wave C.
But because we have a nice round base here, this could become a Cup and Handle pattern which is bullish!
In that case, we should see price retrace around half of this move up before reversing higher.
Key to understand what will happen will be to understand how the move lower will unfold,
choppy and overlapping taking a lot of time-> Bullish
sharp and quick -> Bearish.
USD/MXN Buy OpportunityRecent reversal in trend offers buy opportunity. We had impulsive movement today. Watching for correction/pullback to trendline before continuation up. Pullback area is key zone; also expect price to graze moving averages as dynamic support. Study price action around this area for impulsive move to the upside along with other confluences. Trade at your own risk. This is for demonstration and educational purposes.
Possible double bottom on USDMXNHello, I have reasons to believe USDMXN could bounce.
You can wait for the FOMC press conference in 3 hours.
Price is going up.
You may want to buy on a higher high here:
The leg down is very extended and about now would be a good time for a bounce:
It's possible in a few hours news make the price go up very quickly.
I'm comfy because I risk little to make alot, no point overthinking it, this looks good to me.
ORBEX: Pre-BoE GBJPY, Post-Fed USDMXNIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #USDMXN!
#Pound Remains Solid:
- MPs support 3-month extension
- Monthly CPI rise not as expected, but improved
#Yen Likely to Weaken:
- BoJ held rates unchanged but acknowledged increasing risks
- Ultraloose policy to be re-examined at October meeting
#MXN Supported By Fed:
- Emerging currencies will benefit from rate differentials
- Oil is bid and likely to move higher
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
Peso is testing 0.618 Fib retIt may go down with fewer tensions in trade wars and President trump away from bad tweets about Mexico. Fed meeting next week may be crucial for the peso as it supports on currency carry.
A breaking of 19.38/19.39 may detonate into a mayor recover close to 19.20. Actual levels may be attractive for long term bulls and price may have problems to break down.
EURJPY, USDMXN: FX Minor Pairs Affected By Policy ExpectationsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse EURJPY and USDMXN!
Euro, although affected by expectations that ECB will not only cut but probably also QE, is trading relatively firm against a weaker yen. BoJ's ease seems to be taken to heart compared to ECB's as Japan is ultraloose already!
The Mexican Peso, on the other hand, seems affected by expectations the Fed's hiking cycle has now turned dovish, with FOMC expected to cut again next week!?
Economic data that affected Yen, Dollar and Mexican Peso -* Euro is affected by ECB policy expectations:
- JPY Core Machinery Orders m/m -6.6% vs -1.9%
- USD PPI m/m 0.1% vs 0.2%
- MXN Industrial Production n.s.a. y/y -1.7% vs -2.7%
Politics:
- China offers olive branch t US by reducing tariffs on certain US products
- Trump talks with the Iranian president to arrange a meeting
Monetary Policy:
- Markets expect ECB to cut, but not sure on QE yet. With QE we'll see double-whammy
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
USDMXN Bounce-PlayTwo possible scenarios:
1. USDMXN will create the next shooting star soon after reaching 20-- this new high and possible psychological resistance, and expecting it to drop back near 19.5 (or lower, possibly at 19 instead which is the 61.8 fib) by next month, or
2. USDMXN will continue rising near 2018 high esp if DXY tries to reach 100 before bouncing down as expected
Either way, this pair is pretty much overbought and due for a strong pullback, especially if we look at its weekly price action, recent bullish candles aren't as big as those back between April-June 2018 and October-November 2018.
Weekly:
Confidence: B (possible for this pair to reach new highs esp if market gets more risk-off overall while at the same time continue pushing DXY to climb to 100 faster-- after already pricing in the 2nd rate cut by Fed this coming September)
Buy lows for long term positonsThis par will break any moment, won't resist another attack to the 20.20. That is more likely to happen 1st quarter next year
Buy any low, key levels 19.10/19.25/19.40, watch for immigration cooperation, USMCA approval and carry to good entry points.
Factors:
Trump is going to be in the campaign, and he proved that anti-Mexican rhetoric pays.
Oil prices won't support the peso.
Mexico's president populist programs will affect the investment, slow growth is expected
Pemex may have a rating downward.
I think is too risky to think in 18s, will be more profitable to buy lows and wait to the 21 to 24
USDMXN forming bullish CRAB | A good long opportunity aheadPriceline of US Dollar / Mexican Peso Forex pair is forming a bullish CRAB pattern and soon it will be entered in potential reversal zone insha Allah.
Volume profile of complete pattern is showing less interest of traders here
RSI is oversold
But MACD is strong bearish and Stochastic is oversold but did not give any bull cross sofar, so I would suggest when the price action will be entered in PRZ area then wait for MACD to turn weak bearish or for stochastic bull cross then buy.
I have used Fibonacci sequence to set the targets:
Buy between: 19.47392 to 19.25942
Sell between: 19.64064 to 20.04382
Regards,
Atif Akbar (moon333)