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USDMXN

USDMXN - On its way to 18.90 and lower!The Mexican peso looks strong. It broke to the downside during the US session and bottomed today at 18.95. I see two supports. The immediate support is the 18.90 area. If we break that support, we could go to the second strong support at 18.75, especially if oil price does not fall. Also, both the daily MACD and RSI give us a bearish signal. On the other hand, if we go bullish, I expect the prices to go to 19.15. However, as I mentioned, I am more in favor of a downside.
Short
by Joel_Ochoa
USDMXN – Potential Triangle Breakout– Long Term Bullish TradeBackground: Based on the price data available on Monthly chart (see below), the USDMXN is in longer term Bullish trend. It formed a major spike high in Jan 2017 and since then it has been in a consolidation, forming higher lows, suggesting strong based being built. The extreme bullish sentiment for MXN might be fostered by the fact that the uncertainties associated with recent election and Trade Agreement with US is over. However the Trade Agreement with US might have complication currently not anticipated. Regardless the out performance by Mexican Peso might be coming to an end. Summary of some of the technical: 1. Monthly (see chart below in update) a. Whilst forming higher lows in this consolidation it is riding 50 MA. b. Bouncing of the bullish trendlines pivoted across alternative pivots. c. Possible Cup & Handle formation which is continuation Pattern d. Developing potential bullish diversion between MACD weakening in momentum to the downside and with price forming higher lows. This would be significant as MACD form possible low above zero line e. There is possible time symmetry of Approx 11 months between July 2017 low to June 2018 high and June 2018 high to April/May 2019 low being formed now. 2. Weekly (See chart below in Update) a. Potential Cup & Handle formation little more clearer, though there might be other more appropriate description. However series of higher low are very clear. b. MACD Bullish bounce around zero line is also very clear and bullish diversion. c. Riding 200 MA (weekly) d. ADX is a very slow indicator but it is now below 10. Bouncing from around this level is often an indication of possible new trend in the making. In conjunction with above observation this could be a bullish trend development. 3. Daily a. Since last major peak I Jan 2017 USDMXN could be forming a potential triangle of 3-3-3-3-3 structure. This likely completed with April 2018 low. b. A breakout above the 200 MA around 19.50 would confirm with initial resistance around 20 but longer term aiming for new high. c. MACD is bullish and DAX on daily is also formed a double bottom around 12 and higher low from compared with Oct 2018. 4. COT Data – (Please see chart in the Update) a. Has relative high open Interest. b. Net long by Non Commercial (Large Speculators) is at extreme level not seen since April 2013. c. Such extreme bullish sentiment on MXN could come under pressure if the MXN Peso began to weaken against USD and commence the next bullish cycle for USDMXN Conclusion: Longer term Bullish breakout of the consolidation is anticipated. Use your own method of entry and trade management. Suggested entry could be upon: 1. A clear breakout above 19.50. 2. A pull back towards 19.0. 3. As this is for a longer term trend trade initial stop could be set around below 18.0 or such level that is appropriate on lower time frame Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. DanV
Long
by DanV
10
USDMXN A tequila "Shot"If you missed the buy opportunity of USDMXN at the bottom of the wick that touched the trendline, well dry your tears for you can short at the channel retest with a good return of 1400 pips if it gets to our TP of 1.90000 psychological handle. Watch PA closely, if the bullish momentum is strong enough to incise the channel, this trade will be invalidated as there's not a lot of fundamental backup to it. The USDMXN has a high pip return and would be nice to it to your trading portfolio. Happy trading and profitable week! NOTE:, I am still long on this pair since the entry on Friday but notice that we are heading to fib 50% and a major weekly turncoat-resistance, hence the neutral stance and EUREKA Moment!!!
by SleekPips
1