USDMXN POSSIBLE SHORT TRADE IDEAOn the monthly charts, we have a bullish trend that has been flipped. A change of character on the monthly chart indicates bearish orderflow setting. Currently, the dollar is gaining strength against major pairs, the Peso is no exception. The bullish resurgence of the dollar against the Peso seems to target price imbalance ranging between 21 to 24. Once these price imbalance has been removed, we are likely to see bearish sentiment setting in, possibly early 2025, targeting new lows.
Usdmxnidea
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USDMXN - Looking Bullish USDMXN has broken the major downtrend line with some strength and appears to be making a corrective move at the moment. (possible retest)
Now we have to wait how it will react at the Fibonaci levels that converge with the retest of the bearish trendline and with our daily SMMA (Red line), if there is a bullish rejection pattern it could be a good place to open a Long position.
Fed vs. Banxico: USD/MXN forecast The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) on Thursday. Forecasts suggest that both central banks will maintain their current interest rates.
Recent indications from Banxico suggest a leaning towards a more accommodative monetary policy. However, Deputy Governor Irene Espinosa has expressed reservations, highlighting the persistence and escalation of inflationary risks.
Analyzing the USD/MXN chart reveals an upward momentum, with the pair converging between the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA at 17.40. The reclaiming of the psychological level of 17.50 could be a crucial factor in confirming this momentum. If the USD/MXN experiences a decline, the 100-day SMA may serve as a noteworthy level before reaching support at 17.00/05.
Economists at Rabobank project USD/MXN to average around 17.20 in the next month. They expect the pair to trade around this level in early 2024 before potentially rising to the 17.80 region by the end of the first quarter.
Why the Mexican Peso Surged Against the USD? On Wednesday, the US dollar decreased in value against other major currencies, including the Mexican peso, by over 1%, due to reports of slower than expected US inflation. This suggests that the Federal Reserve may pause its interest rate hikes. According to data from the US Labor Department, inflation in April decreased to 4.9%, which is the lowest year-over-year increase in two years and lower than market forecasts of 5%. The slower inflation was attributed to slower growth in food prices and a further decrease in energy costs.
However, core inflation remained high at 5.5%, indicating that interest rates may need to stay high for some time to control it. Fed funds futures traders are anticipating a pause before expected rate cuts in September, which might be a little optimistic, as the Fed's target range remains at 5% to 5.25%.
The Mexican peso gained strength to 17.544, its highest value since July 2017, as the difference between US and Mexican monetary policies became more pronounced. The RSI on the USDMXN suggests it is in an extreme oversold condition, so a pullback may be necessary. Resistance levels from 2017 for the pair may no longer be relevant, but the strongest value the peso reached in 2017 was $17.430, while the peak in 2016 was $17.050.
For fundamental context, Banxico increased rates to an all-time high of 11.25% in March, despite a decrease in annual headline inflation that was greater than expected. Mexico's proximity to the US has also made it an attractive location for foreign companies to open factories targeting the American market and diversifying production from China. Additionally, the US economy's robust state has led to a rise in remittances to Mexico from expats.
USDMXN Trading Plan - 27/Mar/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect USDMXN to go Up after finishing this correction.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
USDMXN Trading Plan - 17/Jan/2023Hello Traders,
Hope you all are doing good!!
I expect USDMXN to go Up after finishing this correction.
Look for your BUY setups.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
What do USD/MXN and S&P 500 VIX have in common?The Mexican peso (MXN) is one of the conventional high-beta currencies traded on the forex market, making it extremely susceptible to changes in risk sentiment on global financial markets. When MXN inflows occur, it usually signals that investors are willing to take risks. In the last three months, USD/MXN has lost 3%, making the peso one of the best-performing currency in 2022.
Much of the MXN's outperformance has been the result of a very hawkish Mexican Central Bank, which hiked interest rates up to 9.25%, the highest since 2005. Another 75bps hike is expected at November 10th meeting, which would bring Mexican rates to 10%.
Aside from the Banxico hiking cycle in Mexico, the Peso has a strong correlation with global risk factors, namely the stock market volatility. To put it another way, historically, the USD/MXN pair and the S&P volatility index ( VIX ) have behaved similarly.
What are we seeing now?
The USD/MXN 14-day RSI indicator has entered oversold territory, highlighting the need for caution for investors willing to take on more risk at this stage, as MXN valuations are beginning to appear rather stretched.
Therefore, the bearish momentum for both USD/MXN and the VIX might have reached a peak.
Aside from the results of the midterm elections, investors will almost definitely have to digest another strong US CPI data this week. Analysts predict 8% annual inflation in October, with core inflation at 6.5%.
If actual results match or exceed estimates, Fed interest rate expectations will likely be reassessed higher. As the U.S. and Mexican economies are highly interdependent, the anticipated cyclical weakening of the U.S. economy bodes poorly for the Mexican economy and adds to MXN downward pressures.
Idea written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity market specialist at Capital.com
USDMXN Long This looks to be one of those very "safe" plays on the USDMXN this pair has been a consistent money maker on the long side over the past 3years I have been trading. The ADX is in the lower ranges (Indicating that it is not trending), approaching one of 2 very strong supports and the RSI looking good. Look to enter the market at your own discretion but in my opinion, tends to move very quickly to the upside so have a buy level you are comfortable with. I only buy this pair I never sell it because the timing is always tricky on that one. Macro economic: dollar is still strong but I would also look at the VIX as an indication of when to press the go button as these two are more correlated than not.
USDMXN Short Swing Trade Set UpUSDMXN has broken the trendline on the weekly and monthly chart. Currently price is retesting the break. Looking for price action to show rejection to the downside in the sell zone for entries.
💰TRADE OPPORTUNITY💰
PAIR:USDNXN📉 SELL
Entry Zone: Near 20.24000
Stop Loss: CLOSED 4HR candle Above 20.50000
Take Profit Zone: TP 1: 19.80, Swing target 19.00000
(Risk %: 1-3%)
Risk/Reward:1:1.7, Swing 1:5
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USD/MXN: Lower Moves Now Must Test Important Support LevelsThe USD/MXN is near the 20.71000 level in early trading this morning as the Forex pair has continued to demonstrate an incremental ability to traverse lower. Speculators who have been pursuing selling positions of the USD/MXN since it hit apex highs of 22.15000 approximately on the 25th of November may think the Forex pair remains attractive from a bearish perspective.
Support levels now in sight could prove to be important near term. Traders may have their eyes on the 20.65000 marks as a rather intriguing inflection point when long-term charts are glanced at based on the belief the USD/MXN may be slowly working its way back to a lower known range which was traded for much of 2021.
However, traders may not want to get too optimistic quite yet. As the Christmas holiday gets ready to start, trading volumes will become quite thin and the lack of large transactions in Forex could cause the USD/MXN to stall. The trading to come may see volatile spikes in price up and down, but these will likely be demonstrated because of imbalanced positions which could make for choppy conditions which are often unpredictable.
Day traders who want to participate with the USD/MXN are urged to use stop losses, which protect their positions against sudden fluctuations that can be dangerous when too much leverage is being used. The downward trend in the USD/MXN may also actually begin to experience a reaction if financial institutions believe the bearish trajectory within the pair has been too fast. Traders who continue to believe selling the USD/MXN is the right decision should monitor resistance levels near the 20.76000 to 20.79000 levels; if these are sustained this could prove important.
Traders should not be overly ambitious within the USD/MXN in the coming days. Tight range trading should be expected with the very real potential for a sudden spike to take place periodically. Traders wagering on the USD/MXN should also use solid take profit orders to make sure if a sudden run in value occurs, that they can be cashed out and the profits accounted for within their accounts. Traders who believe the holiday season will provide an opportunity to simply take advantage of tight ranges which will develop in the coming days cannot be faulted.
Mexican Peso Short-Term Outlook
Current Resistance: 20.79800
Current Support: 20.68000
High Target: 20.89700
Low Target: 20.47000