Usdmxnlong
USDMXN | Bullish Trend USDMXN | Bullish Trend
USDMXN has given a breakout from the falling trendline confirming a good bullish trend. The current price is expected to correction to the possible support zone before starting its upward journey again.
alternatively, if bears manages to break the support zone. More bears will join the party.
Trade your levels accordingly.
USDMXNThis exotic currency pair has been in a bullish trend over the past few weeks, due mostly to USD strength. The news of the origin of a potentially dangerous coronavirus variant emerging in South Africa at the end of last week caused many countries to shut their doors on South African and other African travel, and strongly hit the price of Crude Oil on fears of lesser demand, of which Mexico is a major exporter, causing the Mexican peso to nosedive and send this pair sharply higher to a new 1-year high price on strongly above-average volatility.
Unless it is quickly discovered that the omicron variant should not be as problematic as feared, it is hard to see how Crude Oil and henceforth the Mexican peso will not make a further sharp fall over the course of this week.
The Japanese yen is stronger than the USD so short MXN/JPY will probably be a better trade if your Forex broker offers access to it.
USDMXN. P-Modeling Pt A. The Peso Derivative Safe Haven for USD Welcome Hyperspace Travelers,
This is a time-series analysis of the macro 1 week timeframe of USDMXN.
It is of my opinion that the Peso is going to see a nasty hyperinflation cycle.
TP: 31.1
In previous instances, a rising DXY is a catalyst for a rising Peso; as weight of the co-variance of R becomes redistributed fundamentally.
A rising USD, at specific cyclic points, proposes that a major US equities crash, paired with a re-weighting of forex co-variance will cause a hyperinflation cycle in the Peso.
In a way, in 2008-2009, it helped strengthen the Peso.
In 2020, it also helped strengthen the Peso.
I say strengthen because weighted distributions will allow the Peso to have more "weight" against other currency pairings. This is a hallmark feature of strength. Higher weight distribution of co-variance of the overall monetary pool into Peso makes it stronger.
Think of Peso as a derivative. For many years, the Peso has slowly accumulated "weight" from the primary pairings against USD.
Upon a substantial rise of DXY. The MXN Peso becomes a derivative safe haven for the USD. Thus we hyperinflate it. As previously shown at times of DXY strength 2008 and 2020.
Overall this is great for the Peso on the longer term scale. But not so great for the short term of the Peso for Mexican citizens.
We can see after the hyperinflation we engage in a few years of re-equalizing the slope at 32 degrees.
I may absolutely be wrong. But I really think this makes perfect sense.
Thanks for Pondering the Unknown with Me,
Glitch420