USDMXN targeting 23.00 at least.The USDMXN pair has made a monumental long-term bullish break-out as not only did it recover its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) in August but has also managed to close the last two 1M candles above it.
As you can see on this multi-decade chart, every time the pair broke above the 1M MA50, it rallied by at least +19.10%. At the same time, it is coming off the lowest ever 1M MACD Bullish Cross, while the price rebounded exactly on the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
As a result, our new long-term Target is 23.000.
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Usdmxnsignals
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USDMXN Channel Up leading to 21.6500The USDMXN pair eventually gave us on our last analysis (June 27, see chart below) our desired bullish break-out above the multi-year Falling Wedge and the 1W MA200 and its next stop will most likely be our 21.6500 Target:
To view this trend from a more comprehensive perspective, we made today's analysis on the 1D time-frame. The prevailing pattern is a Channel Up, which as you can see is technically on its 3rd Bearish Leg.
Once it hits the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at the bottom of the Channel Up along with ideally the 1D RSI hitting its Support Zone, we will have the next short-term bullish signal. The Bullish Legs have so far been fairly symmetrical at a +15% rise. As a result our 21.000 Target is within the range of the expected rise ahead.
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USDMXN Major long-term bullish break-out after 4 years!The USDMXN pair broke above the 4-year Falling Wedge and so far stopped the rise just before it tested the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The last time the pair had a similar long-term bullish break-out was on the August 01 11 break-out.
Following a 5-week consolidation, the price then extended the aggressive rise marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we expect another strong bullish wave soon, and our Target is 21.6500 (exactly on the 0.618 Fib).
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USDMXN Strong sell opportunity on the 1D MA200.The USDMXN pair gave us a strong sell signal last time we looked at it (February 19, see chart below):
Now a new sell opportunity has emerged as it got rejected heavily at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-year Bearish Megaphone pattern and is now trading mostly below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
According to the RSI fractal, this price action is similar to the December 2022 consolidation that kickstarted a heavy decline with first stop the -0.382 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we turn bearish again, targeting 15.7500 (just above the -0.382 Fib).
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USDMXN Consolidation before strong decline.The USDMXN pair gave us the most optimal sell signal on our last analysis (October 09 2023) and after hitting our 17.0500 target, is consolidating:
This consolidation is on 1D RSI terms, similar to September 28 - October 28 2022, when the RSI Triangle broke downwards and with that, the price was detached from the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and aggressively declined to marginally over the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are taking now another sell with our Target at 16.200 (Fibonacci -0.236).
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Fed vs. Banxico: USD/MXN forecast The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) on Thursday. Forecasts suggest that both central banks will maintain their current interest rates.
Recent indications from Banxico suggest a leaning towards a more accommodative monetary policy. However, Deputy Governor Irene Espinosa has expressed reservations, highlighting the persistence and escalation of inflationary risks.
Analyzing the USD/MXN chart reveals an upward momentum, with the pair converging between the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA at 17.40. The reclaiming of the psychological level of 17.50 could be a crucial factor in confirming this momentum. If the USD/MXN experiences a decline, the 100-day SMA may serve as a noteworthy level before reaching support at 17.00/05.
Economists at Rabobank project USD/MXN to average around 17.20 in the next month. They expect the pair to trade around this level in early 2024 before potentially rising to the 17.80 region by the end of the first quarter.
USDMXN Prime short position as it approaches a 2-year ResistanceThe USDMXN pair has been on a strong rise since July 28th, which was a Lower Low at the bottom of a 2-year Bearish Megaphone pattern. The rally has extended to a point where the price is about to test that 2-year top (Lower Highs) Resistance. The previous Lower High was priced exactly on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the new one is only a fraction away at 18.6900. We consider that current level already good enough to short, as the 1D RSI has also been on the overbought barrier (70.00) since October 03.
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USDMXN Confirming our long-term pattern. Strong Buy now!The USDMXN pair largely confirmed our last buy signal almost 2 months ago as after it hit its first Support level, it rebounded aggressively to its Lower Highs trend-lines, as shown on the chart below:
We made this accurate projection based on the similarities with the April - June 2021 fractal. The correlation continues to hold as the price is now trading sideways near the Support level, having broken last Friday below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As per the 2021 sequence, we can expect another month (roughly) of neutral/ sideways price action below the 1D MA200 (green trend-line), before the next strong rebound towards the Lower Highs trend-lines. Technically, this is another solid medium-term buy opportunity.
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USDMXN Consolidation until the next break upwards.The USDMXN pair has been one of the better range pairs to trade in the market throughout the past 2 years. At the moment it is consolidating within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Higher Lows trend-line. The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is the last line of Resistance, on the Lower Highs (2) trend-line, before a jump to Lower Highs (1).
The 19.800 symmetrical Support is holding and this resembles the April 20 - May 30 2021 fractal so far, which made an aggressive price jump when the 1D MA200 broke.
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USDMXN Higher returns on going long here.The USDMXN pair has been one of the most consistent buys in the forex market historically. In the last 6 years in particular there is a very clear Higher Lows trend-line that Supports the price and initiates major rallies when it is touched. The last contact with it was on May 30 and as expected, that caused a strong rebound. So far however it is contained within the Channel Down that started on the November 29 2021 High.
As a result, our macro strategy on this pair is to either buy after the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down breaks and set a target near the 1.0 Fibonacci level or buy near the 6 year Higher Lows trend-line again and target the Lower Highs of the Channel until it breaks.
If the 6 year Higher Lows trend-line breaks though, take a sell towards the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Down. Given however that the 1W RSI has its 4 year Support Zone where it just bounced last month, the chances for a bullish break-out are greater.
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USDMXN Accumulating for an end-of-the-year riseThe USDMXN pair has been trading within a Channel Up since late 2020. The Fibonacci Channel levels help at understanding bettern the Resistance and Support levels involved on each Higher High and Higher Low leg. Right now the price action seems to be about to complete the (3) and final leg of the correction similar to that of August 2021. That was the Accumulation phase that led to an end-of-the-year rally that broke above the Higher Highs trend-line. We believe that a similar pattern will be followed, making the USDMXN a buy opportunity on the long-term.
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UsdMxn- a new rise to 22 zone is very probableThe 21 zone is strong support for UsdMxn and also the drop from 21.80 is contained in a falling wedge pattern
I strongly believe that 21 will hold and a break above the descending trend-line of the wedge would accelerate losses for Mexican Peso.
A buy trade for this pair could have a 1:3 R:R
USDMXN NEXT TRADE SETUP(SHORT).As you seen my last week trade setup and our last call on this pair and USDZAR as well, the market almost hit the expected target around 21.5000 area.On the weekly chart market look on a bearish momentum with a possible break of the recent lows in the near future But i should retrace back towards up to maintain its structure(support and resistance) .Price on the daily chart will probably test the daily structure before starting a bounce over it.If the price will break below the structure we will monitor the market for a nice short order.We will consider a long reversal only over the 22.0000 area.
All the entries should be applied if all the rules are applied .
Do comment us below for instance.
USDMXN NEXT TRADE SETUPUSD/MXN rates are testing critical near-term support, which very well could be the determining factor in the predominant trading trend through the end of the year.
While other currencies are benefiting from the US Dollar’s (via the DXY Index) weakness, the reliance the Mexican economy has on the United States has left the Peso struggling relative to other global growth-sensitive currencies.
At the time of publication of this analysis, USDMXN is on 22.2230 and is testing its critical support zone.
We can find good sell entries if it breaks this zone and there is no fake breakout and at point 22.100 we can place our sell entries till next support at 21.49300.
Entries should be placed only if all the rules of entries are applied.
USDMXN Sell SignalPattern: Triangle/ emerging Channel Down on 1D.
Signal: Sell as the RSI is replicating a sharp drop fractal.
Target: 21.600 (just above the Support).
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Most recent USDMXN signal: