USDNOK
USDNOK REVERSALUSDNOK has seen a reversal pattern formation. We have also seen DXY retreat last week as fears of the fed rate hike eased a little allowing the DXY to print a new low. DXY could see a move down to 102 allowing more dollar weakness and this pattern to play out. All eyes on thursdays inflation data
$USDNOK - Now we wait...$USDNOK - Now we wait...
Another week for us traders to take advantage of
Excellent set up for usdnok - now we wait for a break to either direction we do have key fundamental data this week. Will Powell be as before dovish or will he hawkish as well as that softer cpi coming our way expected and then taking into consideration the technical view of usdnok it's not bad R/R either direction.
Trade Journal
USDNOK: Descending TriangleI think DXY may lose some ground in the next few weeks, to where no one knows
against NOK there seems to be one of the clearest patterns
a descending triangle, confirmed by the volumes on NOK Futures
I expect a clear break below 10.40 and confirmation volumes on the futures, even if on the descending triangle they are not essential
USDNOK Can Fall Hard If Neckline Is BrokenUSD came down last week as sentiment changed when ECB raised rates by 75bp, so it appears that the USD will now give some moves back as other CB trying to follow the FED. We have also seen some rally on crud, as demand can increase as we approach the winter. Higher crude oil will have a positive impact on some commodity currencies, like NOK, CAD and even MXN, especially during the USD weakness. As such, we have decided to look at the USDNOK today as this one can have the most downside potential.
On a daily chart we can see that price came nicely higher last year, but recovery from 2021 low is overlapping which normally means it's a corrective price action. We see this as a higher degree pause in wave B that can be coming to an end after recent turn down from Fibo. cluster resistance area. The divergence line on the RSI also suggests that bulls can be done, especially if we consider the Head & Shoulders top formation. However, a trendline near 9.6 must be broken to confirm lower prices into the third wave of a decline.
⭐️BRENT: forecast for May 9-May 13➡️ Oil usually rises and falls with the stock market because the prices of both markets are like a proxy for economic activity. But in recent years, these relationships have collapsed. Oil growth may continue to outperform.
Stock markets fell and oil prices held. It is more likely that oil will continue to outperform equities on a cross-asset basis. If you are in a place where economic activity is strong now but could also slow down in the coming years, stock and credit markets could start to weaken even as energy prices hold.
Oil prices could rise even more if the conflict in Ukraine escalates, a scenario that is likely to push prices down in other asset classes. But if geopolitical risk subsides, there could be a recovery in growth, greater economic confidence and more demand for energy, meaning that oil may not fall much compared to future expectations. This should support the oil.
Technically, oil is not expected to fall below 110$ - 111$ this week. Longs can be entered from current prices. The target for the deal is supposed to be at the level of 115$.
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👇🔥 LINKS TO PREVIOUS IDEAS AND FORECASTS 🔥👇
USDNOK Channeling Towards 9.35Trend Analysis
The main view of this trade idea is on the 2-Hr Chart.
There appears to be an upward trend channel developing for USDNOK. Higher lows are observed around the 8.63 and 8.76 price levels. Higher highs are seen around the 9.00 and 9.10 price levels. Expectations for the fx cross to continue higher in the trend channel, taking USDNOK towards 9.35. A breakdown in the rally of USDNOK will be observed if the fx cross falls below 8.80.
On the longer term timeframe, if USDNOK breaks above the resistance of the upward trend level, the fx cross can rally towards 9.80.
Technical Indicators
The technical indicators are pointing out that USDNOK will rally over the next couple of months. USDNOK is above its long-term Moving Average (440-MA) and is in a bullish mode for the Supertrend Indicator. The Supertrend is also producing higher lows and higher highs, similar to the upward trend channel. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is above 0 and green and the RSI is above the 50 level.
Recommendation
The recommendation will be to go long at market, with a stop loss at 8.80 and a target of 9.35. This produces a risk/reward ratio of 1.60.
Disclaimer
The views expressed are mine and do not represent the views of my employers and business partners. Persons acting on these recommendations are doing so at their own risk. These recommendations are not a solicitation to buy or to sell but are for purely discussion purposes.
Short Vision on USD NOK for 22/02/2022Hello Dear Traders,
You find below my analysis for USD/NOK, the currency pair is in the sell zone. I expect the price to fall. According to my set of rules, in the M30 frame USD/NOK will fall to 8.88 as I am showing in my chart. Our Daily Goal is 8.86.
Currently, USD/NOK is moving towards the resistance level 8.98,where there is some liquidity from this value we are looking for short-term selling opportunities of USD/NOK.
Good Luck and enjoy your Bearish Market for today.
Entry:@8.98
TP1: @8.95
TP2: @8.91
TP3: @8.88
SL: @9.1
As mentioned on previous posting, we oscillate daily with the market based on Human Behavior and Sentiment.
Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below, I will be glad to discuss my friends!