USDNOK
USDNOK DOWNSIDE WITH OIL STRENGTHUSDNOK downside looks likely as USD pushes lower. This combined with the current OPEC decision to cut oil production could help the NOK a heavy producer and exporter of oil to increase in value.
Technically the daily timeframe is still in an uptrend, however looking to the 4hr timeframe you can see the head and shoulders pattern has been completed, which is an early sign of a change in trend.
We also have the confluence of a higher timeframe trendline support being broken with price closing below. This is an early indication of further downside.
Minor resistance and head and shoulder neckline of 8.5200 would be an ideal place to look for a short opportunity.
#WTI #USOIL #USDNOK - Are you looking at this? Watching ThisLooking at the charts, I can see an opportunity to go #long #WTI #USOIL and if you wish #short #USDNOK, these markets have a correlation (not tick for tick), but you could do a play on a weakening dollar, NOK is typically oil pegged currency, it's very volatile, but you can reap rewards IF traded correctly. I am looking for a short-term bounce in #Oil and an opportunity to sell on the rally, in the meantime I am waiting for a break of 52.60 to initiate long to target the $60-$62.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Previous forecast at workThe previous forecast worked, and the USD/NOK currency pair has reached the resistance cluster formed by the monthly R1 and the weekly R2 in the 8.5565/8.5889 range.
Currently, the pair is testing given resistance. Given that the exchange rate is being supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, it is expected that the rate goes upwards to the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel located circa the 8.7500 mark. Technical indicators for both short and long runs also support bullish scenario.
It is the unlikely case that some bearish pressure still prevails in the market, the US Dollar should not exceed the 200-hour SMA, which is currently located at 8.5056.
USDNOK BREAKING KEY TRENDLINE RESISTANCEThe FOMC's latest meeting minutes highlighted the data from the US continues to be good and rate hikes are still likely leading to a boost in the USD. USDNOK we had been monitoring around the key support of 8.3000 to see if the market would break or bounce. Since we have seen the market bounce from this area we could be heading for higher prices especially if the market breaks and closes above the current trendline resistance. The Fibonacci extension of 127.2 sits at highs of 8.6520 where the market could look to target. Looking to our lower timeframes for entries.
USDNOK SHORT TERM DOWNSIDEIn this video we explain how the USDNOK pair could move lower into the key support zone of 8.3000. The market
is back into a key weekly trendline resistance and looks to be rejecting with the 4hr timeframe breaking a key supporting
trendline. Looking for shorting opportunities on the re-test of structure making stops are above key highs.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Upside momentum likelyThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone after the currency pair reversed from the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel located at 8.1500.
Given that the rate is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, which currently are located in the 8.2572/8.3650 area, it is likely that an upside momentum prevails during following trading sessions. Technical indicators for the short run also support bullish scenario.
A possible target is the upper channel line at 8.6600 and an important resistance level to look out for is the Fibonacci 61.80% retracement at 8.4861.
USDNOK DOWNSIDE TO RESUMEUSDNOK recently saw downside after coming into a key weekly trendline resistance combined with the Norges Bank (the central bank) talking about the potential to hike interest rates in 2019 as their economy continues to grow. Looking to the USDNOK pair technically we can see the market created new lows after rejecting the weekly trendline resistance. Using our Fibonacci from swing high to swing low we can see the 38.2 Fib lines up with our key horizontal resistance making it a great place to look for continuation short.
USDNOK setup for short positionIt is set-up for short position based on the following :
- recent bearish trend
- ABC pattern where C stopped at 0.786 which is bearish sign
- Pair is trading below 200 EMA
- These blue rectangles are showing GAP's from weekly time interval
Things which are suggesting that this trade is risky:
- for the last 4 years this pair is in bullish trend
- on daily chart it bounced from 200 ema
Decide for U'rself if this one is worth the risk. R/R is not decent but it is alright
If U'r MM is on decent level I assume it is worth a risk but if U don;t have solid MM then I would suggest to avoid this trade as it can wipe U'r account out.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Short-term channel in sightThe US Dollar has been appreciating against the Norwegian Krone since the pair reversed from the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel located circa 8.1000. This movement is bounded by an ascending channel.
Currently, the pair is trading near the Fibonacci 50.00% retracement at the 8.1825 mark. The exchange rate is supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs. Also, technical indicators flash bullish signals for the 1W time frame. Given these two facts, it is expected that the pair will continue to go upwards to the weekly R2 at 8.2500.
However, this advance might not be immediate and the pair could re-test the lower boundary of the short-term channel.